Decisions made by individuals planning for retirement may be myopic. One way of capturing this myopia is with quasi-hyperbolic discounting. It is well known that such preferences may explain why individuals fail to provide an adequate retirement income for themselves. In this thesis, the quasi-hyperbolic discounting model is applied to a number of other decisions and outcomes related to planning for retirement. There are three main focuses. Firstly, the thesis considers a model where individuals are quasi-hyperbolic discounters over both retirement and saving, and extends the results of Diamond and Köszegi (2003). It argues that mechanisms designed to overcome myopic saving decisions may lead to unplanned early retirement. This may depend on the form of income in retirement -- regular income options such as annuities offer commitment over overconsuming early in retirement, which makes early retirement less desirable to myopic retirees. Secondly, it tests these predictions using a new laboratory experiment. Over a two-month period, participants were asked to attend weekly sessions, and could leave the experiment (or "retire") in any week of their choosing. Part of their payment for attending these sessions was put aside and paid only after they had left. The results indicated that more impulsive individuals left the experiment earlier, both overall and relative to plans made in the first week of the experiment. Finally, this thesis presents a model of rising wages as a forced saving mechanism. Assuming individuals face some borrowing constraints, deferred wages implicitly place some earnings aside until much closer to retirement, when quasi-hyperbolic discounters save a greater fraction of their income, increasing total retirement wealth. It also shows that demand for rising wages should disappear for people with access to more direct saving commitment mechanisms, although when these schemes offer less commitment (due to early withdrawal or early retirement options), a combination of both mechanisms is preferred.

The thesis provides a comparative estimation of the electoral cycles' influence on the monetary policies among a group of developed and developing countries. We use a non-linear central bank's reaction function which captures the regime switching behavior of the monetary authority depending on the proximity of elections. Moreover, we compare the reaction function with partial adjustment, which controls for policy inertia, with a non-inertial policy rule with serially correlated errors which takes into account other shocks determining the central bank to deviate from its policy rule. The estimation was performed via OLS, 2SLS and 3SLS, the preference being given to the last one due to correction of endogeneity problem and efficiency gains. Robust evidence about election induced monetary policies was found in 2 out of 10 developed economies and 4 out of 10 developing economies. In these countries, the central banks tend to be less inflation averse and/or less counter-cyclical (or even pro- cyclical) during electoral periods in comparison with normal times. Additionally, we find that the legislative framework, in these countries, incorporates significant deviations from the best practices of central bank independence. Finally, following the dynamic inconsistency problem, we document a strong...

The thesis presents a formal model of intertemporal decision problem of working on a task for distant reward which depends on the number of periods the subject actually spends working, where the subject faces varying opportunity costs of working each period before the deadline. Three psychologically plausible causes of procrastination are incorporated into the model as transformations of the decision problem. In order to assess a hypothesis that procrastination is an evolved and stable habit, the third transformation renders the model dynamic in that past decisions and circumstances affect the present. The model is first explored via qualitative analysis and simulations are performed to further reveal its functionality.

Planos de previdência que dependem de uma postura ativa dos indivíduos para solicitar a adesão acabam tendo uma baixa participação (Benartzi & Thaler, 2007). Por outro lado, resultados mostram que os indivíduos decidem poupar a partir de determinadas \"regras de bolso\", tais como a escolha de um percentual máximo de contribuição que receba uma contrapartida do empregador (se a percentagem máxima que receberá contrapartida do patrocinador de um plano for 8%, então o indivíduo decidirá contribuir com esta percentagem). Assim, estratégias podem ser inseridas nos planos de aposentadoria, de forma que determinados comportamentos sejam \"incentivados\" e outros sejam \"coibidos\", fundamentalmente, em situações manifestas de inconsistência temporal por parte dos indivíduos. Esta pesquisa objetivou identificar, a partir de evidências empíricas, quais arranjos de planos previdenciários do tipo \'contribuição definida\' minimizam o efeito da miopia intertemporal sobre as decisões de poupança para a aposentadoria. Os fundamentos teóricos que nortearam a presente tese foram a Racionalidade Limitada, proposta por Simon (1979), a Teoria dos Prospectos, e as hipóteses do ciclo de vida comportamental (Behavioral Life-Cicle hypothesis), desenvolvidas por Benartzi e Thaler (2007). Utilizou-se um levantamento para identificar as características demográficas dos participantes e, paralelamente, um experimento com base em cenários para identificar as escolhas relacionadas aos planos de previdência complementar do tipo \'contribuição definida\'. O levantamento e o experimento foram formulados com o auxílio da plataforma online Questionpro© e disponibilizados por meio da internet aos participantes. Foram definidos cenários para o grupo de controle (sem manipulação de variáveis) e para dois grupos experimentais (com manipulação de variáveis), para identificar de que forma o desenho dos planos de previdência afeta as decisões de alocação de recursos a eles, e de que forma tais decisões se relacionam com as variáveis demográficas dos segurados. Os testes de hipóteses foram realizados por meio do teste não paramétrico de Wilcoxon para diferença de médias, e por meio da estimação de regressão linear por mínimos quadrados ordinários. Os achados sugerem que os respondentes parecem ter adotado um comportamento mais impaciente, quando o intervalo é deslocado para o futuro, do que quando se compara uma recompensa imediata e uma recompensa tardia em um mesmo intervalo de espera, contrariando a literatura sobre desconto hiperbólico, inconsistência temporal e comportamento impaciente. No que se refere ao efeito dos arranjos institucionais sobre as decisões de poupança para a aposentadoria, observou-se que o desenho deum plano de previdência em que haja inscrição automática compulsória, com a presença de um plano livre de risco, faz com que haja uma maior permanência dos indivíduos neste tipo de plano. Este resultado, aliado às estatísticas descritivas que apontam uma maior aposentadoria nos planos com inscrição automática compulsória e contrapartida do patrocinador (experimentador), em comparação com o plano sem tais características, nos leva a afirmar que tais desenhos permitem uma maior poupança para a aposentadoria por parte dos segurados. Portanto, a inserção de desenhos desta natureza em eventuais políticas públicas pode servir de \"empurrão\" para que as pessoas tomem decisões que vão de encontro à inconsistência temporal. / Pension plans that rely on an active attitude of individuals to apply for membership end up having a low participation (Benartzi & Thaler, 2007). On the other hand, there are findings that individuals decide to save using certain \"rules of thumb\", such as the choice of a maximum contribution percentage receiving a counterpart of the employer (if the maximum percentage that will receive compensation from the sponsor of a plan is 8%, then the individual will decide to contribute to this figure). Thus, strategies can be incorporated into retirement plans in order to contribute to certain behaviors are \"encouraged\" and others are \"restrained\" fundamentally manifest in situations of time inconsistency by individuals. This research aimed to identify, from empirical evidence, which arrangements of pension plans, type defined contribution, minimize the effect of intertemporal myopia on saving decisions for retirement. The theoretical foundations that guided this thesis were Bounded Rationality, proposed by Simon (1979), the Prospect Theory and Behavioral Life-Cicle hypothesis, developed by Benartzi and Thaler (2007). We used a survey to identify the demographic characteristics of the participants and, in parallel, an experiment based on scenarios to identify the choices related to the pension plans, type defined contribution. The survey and the experiment were formulated with the help of the online platform QuestionPro© and made available through the internet to participants. Scenarios were defined for the control group (without manipulation of variables) and two experimental groups (with manipulation of variables) to identify how the design of pension plans affect the resource allocation decisions to plans and how they relate to the demographic variables of the insured. Hypothesis tests were performed using the nonparametric Wilcoxon test for difference of means and through linear regression estimation by OLS. The findings suggest that respondents seem to have adopted a more impatient behavior when the range is shifted to the future than when comparing immediate reward and a delayed reward in a equivalent delay interval, contrary to the literature on hyperbolic discount, time inconsistency and impatient behavior. With regard to the effect of institutional arrangements on savings decisions for retirement it is noted that the pension plan design where there is compulsory automatic enrollment with the presence of a risk-free plan may improve permanence of individuals this type of plan. This result, combined with descriptive statistics that show a higher retirement plans with mandatory automatic enrollment and return the sponsor (experimenter), as compared to the plan without such features, allow us to state that such designs allow greater savings for retirement. Therefore, the inclusion of this type of design in public policy can serve as a \"nudge\" for people to make decisions that go against the time inconsistency.

La représentation des connaissances et le raisonnement sur le Web sémantique se sont récemment concentrés, pour des raisons pratiques, sur le sous-ensemble de la logique du premier ordre appelé règles existentielles. Dans cette thèse, nous étudions le raisonnement avec des règles existentielles en présence d'informations contradictoires et introduisons un raisonnement existentiel défaisible. Nous proposons trois résultats principaux: Premièrement, nous montrons que les techniques de raisonnement défaisibles classiques doivent être revisitées pour les règles existentielles et étudions leurs défis théoriques et de mise en œuvre. Deuxièmement, nous fournissons une nouvelle structure combinatoire qui permet de capturer diverses variantes du raisonnement défaisable et étudions son expressivité et sa polyvalence. Troisièmement, nous évaluons notre travail par rapport à l'état de l'art dans le traitement des incohérences et des inconsistances dans les règles existentielles et étudions l'intérêt humain de telles techniques de raisonnement. / Knowledge representation and reasoning on the Semantic Web has recently focused, due to practical rationale, on the subset of first order logic called existential rules. In this thesis we investigate reasoning with existential rules in presence of conflicting information and introduce defeasible existential rule reasoning. We provide three main salient results as follows. First we show that classical defeasible reasoning techniques need to be revisited for existential rules and study their theoretical and implementation related challenges. Second, we provide a new combinatorial structure that allows for diverse variants of defeasible reasoning to be captured together and study its expressivity and versatility. Third we evaluate our work with respect to the state of the art in inconsistency handling in existential rules and investigate the human appeal of such reasoning techniques.

Municipal leaders in the United States face difficult decisions when prioritizing nonmandated civic projects for funding, especially when operating budgets are restricted. This phenomenological study investigated municipal leaders' decision-making processes in a state in the southern United States, using a conceptual framework based on rational choice theory, bounded rationality, and group decision-making theory. It specifically explored personal and organizational decision-making processes related to the prioritization and funding of nonmandated civic projects via in-depth interviews with a convenience sample of 15 municipal leaders. Thematic analysis identified expert opinions, the time and cost to complete a project, the perceived value relative to expense, and the availability of additional funding sources as themes important to understanding participants' decision-making processes. Organizational factors that were important in these decisions included the need for clearly defined responsibilities and consistency in funding decisions. No clearly defined organizational processes were in place in any of the participants' municipalities, and the participants noted that areas such as infrastructure improvements, traffic congestion, community involvement, and formal processes in their municipalities were in need of improvement. Positive social change can flow from greater governmental transparency through municipal decision makers' adoption of systematic decision-making systems and processes. Positive social change can also result from greater inclusiveness through increased public outreach efforts. Results add to the research base by contributing to a better theoretical understanding of organizational decision-making processes in the municipal context.

Paper [I] theoretically analyzes how the level and uncertainty of future prospects affect incentives to abstain from sexual risk taking in the presence of HIV. The results suggest that, for individuals with limited access to HIV treatment, uncertainty of future health may be an important factor driving unsafe sex practices and support the empirical finding of a weak link between sexual behavior, HIV prevalence, and HIV knowledge in poor countries; therefore suggesting that AIDS policy needs to be calibrated in order to fit within different social contexts. Paper [II] empirically tests the link between uncertainty of future prospects and sexual risk taking in a group of young adults in Cape Town, South Africa. The findings indicate that expected income and health and future uncertainty are significant determinants of current patterns of sexual risk taking. However, the empirical results only provide limited support to a link between expected health and sexual risk taking. Paper [III] theoretically analyzes effects of affect and defensive denial on incentives to engage in sexual risk taking related to HIV. The results of the theoretical analysis suggest that the effect of rationalization of personal risk depends on the risk of being HIV positive. Although rationalization causes excessive risk taking behavior for individuals with a relatively low lifetime risk, it may prevent fatalism among individuals whose lifetime risk of HIV is perceived as overwhelming. Paper [IV] theoretically analyzes the role of identity conflict for the evolution of female labor supply over time. The results suggest the fear of becoming an outsider in society may have prevented a complete transition of women from housewives to breadwinners. In addition, our analysis shows that not recognizing that the weights attached to different social identities are endogenous may imply that the long-run effects on labor supply of a higher wage may be underestimated.

This doctoral thesis consists of four papers. Strategic behavior across gender: A comparison of female and male expert chess players analyzes gender differences in risk behavior in chess. We use a panel data set with 1.4 million games. Most notably, the data contains an objective measure of individual playing skill. We find that women are more risk averse and that men choose riskier strategies when playing against female opponents even though this reduces their winning probability. Gender differences in time preference and inconsistency among expert chess players presents findings on gender differences in time preference and inconsistency in chess. Impatience is estimated by measuring preferences for game durations while inconsistency by exploiting the 40th move time control. The results reveal that men are more impatient while women are more time inconsistent. Moreover, the difference in impatience increases with expertise while the difference in inconsistency decreases. Beauty queens and battling knights: Risk taking and attractiveness in chess explores the relationship between attractiveness and risk taking in chess. We examine whether people use riskier strategies when playing with attractive opponents and whether this affects performance. Our results suggest that male, but not female, chess players choose significantly riskier strategies when playing against an attractive female opponent, although this does not improve their performance. Strategic Learning in Repeated Chess Games, examines if chess players in repeated games with the same opponent, learn about the opponent’s type and adapt future strategies accordingly. It also shows how matching background characteristics affect the choice of strategy. The findings show that chess players learn about the opponent’s type. Players with similar background characteristics coordinate better than players of different gender or nationality but this difference decreases as the players update their beliefs. / At the time of doctoral defense, the following papers were unpublished and had a status as follows:Paper 2: Manuscript. Paper 3: Manuscript. Paper 4: Manuscript.

Biology has made great progress in identifying and measuring the building blocks of life. The availability of high-throughput methods in molecular biology has dramatically accelerated the growth of biological knowledge for various organisms. The advancements in genomic, proteomic and metabolomic technologies allow for constructing complex models of biological systems. An increasing number of biological repositories is available on the web, incorporating thousands of biochemical reactions and genetic regulations. Systems Biology is a recent research trend in life science, which fosters a systemic view on biology. In Systems Biology one is interested in integrating the knowledge from all these different sources into models that capture the interaction of these entities. By studying these models one wants to understand the emerging properties of the whole system, such as robustness. However, both measurements as well as biological networks are prone to considerable incompleteness, heterogeneity and mutual inconsistency, which makes it highly non-trivial to draw biologically meaningful conclusions in an automated way. Therefore, we want to promote Answer Set Programming (ASP) as a tool for discrete modeling in Systems Biology. ASP is a declarative problem solving paradigm, in which a problem is encoded as a logic program such that its answer sets represent solutions to the problem. ASP has intrinsic features to cope with incompleteness, offers a rich modeling language and highly efficient solving technology. We present ASP solutions, for the analysis of genetic regulatory networks, determining consistency with observed measurements and identifying minimal causes for inconsistency. We extend this approach for computing minimal repairs on model and data that restore consistency. This method allows for predicting unobserved data even in case of inconsistency. Further, we present an ASP approach to metabolic network expansion. This approach exploits the easy characterization of reachability in ASP and its various reasoning methods, to explore the biosynthetic capabilities of metabolic reaction networks and generate hypotheses for extending the network. Finally, we present the BioASP library, a Python library which encapsulates our ASP solutions into the imperative programming paradigm. The library allows for an easy integration of ASP solution into system rich environments, as they exist in Systems Biology. / In den letzten Jahren wurden große Fortschritte bei der Identifikation und Messung der Bausteine des Lebens gemacht. Die Verfügbarkeit von Hochdurchsatzverfahren in der Molekularbiology hat das Anwachsen unseres biologischen Wissens dramatisch beschleunigt. Durch die technische Fortschritte in Genomic, Proteomic und Metabolomic wurde die Konstruktion komplexer Modelle biologischer Systeme ermöglicht. Immer mehr biologische Datenbanken sind über das Internet verfügbar, sie enthalten tausende Daten biochemischer Reaktionen und genetischer Regulation. System Biologie ist ein junger Forschungszweig der Biologie, der versucht Biologische Systeme in ihrer Ganzheit zu erforschen. Dabei ist man daran interessiert möglichst viel Wissen aus den unterschiedlichsten Bereichen in ein Modell zu aggregieren, welches das Zusammenwirken der verschiedensten Komponenten nachbildet. Durch das Studium derartiger Modelle erhofft man sich ein Verständnis der aufbauenden Eigenschaften, wie zum Beispiel Robustheit, des Systems zu erlangen. Es stellt sich jedoch die Problematik, das sowohl die biologischen Modelle als auch die verfügbaren Messwerte, oft unvollständig, miteinander unvereinbar oder fehlerhaft sind. All dies macht es schwierig biologisch sinnvolle Schlussfolgerungen zu ziehen. Daher, möchten wir in dieser Arbeit Antwortmengen Programmierung (engl. Answer Set Programming; ASP) als Werkzeug zur diskreten Modellierung system biologischer Probleme vorschlagen. ASP verfügt über eingebaute Eigenschaften zum Umgang mit unvollständiger Information, eine reichhaltige Modellierungssprache und hocheffiziente Berechnungstechniken. Wir präsentieren ASP Lösungen zur Analyse von Netzwerken genetischer Regulierungen, zur Prüfung der Konsistenz mit gemessene Daten, und zur Identifikation von Gründen für Inkonsistenz. Diesen Ansatz erweitern wir um die Möglichkeit zur Berechnung minimaler Reparaturen an Modell und Daten, welche Konsistenz erzeugen. Mithilfe dieser Methode werden wir in die Lage versetzt, auch im Fall von Inkonsistenz, noch ungemessene Daten vorherzusagen. Weiterhin, präsentieren wir einen ASP Ansatz zur Analyse metabolischer Netzwerke. Bei diesem Ansatz, nutzen wir zum einen aus das sich Erreichbarkeit mit ASP leicht spezifizieren lässt und das ASP mehrere mächtige Methoden zur Schlussfolgerung bereitstellt, welche sich auch kombiniert lassen. Dadurch wird es möglich die Synthese Möglichkeiten eines Metabolischen Netzwerks zu erforschen und Hypothesen für Erweiterungen des metabolischen Netzwerks zu berechnen. Zu guter Letzt, präsentieren wir die BioASP Softwarebibliothek. Die BioASP-Bibliothek kapselt unsere ASP Lösungen in das imperative Programmierparadigma und vereinfacht eine Integration von ASP Lösungen in heterogene Betriebsumgebungen, wie sie in der System Biologie vorherrschen.

This thesis consists of four empirically oriented papers on central bank independence (CBI) reforms.    Paper [1] is an investigation of why politicians around the world have chosen to give up power to independent central banks, thereby reducing their ability to control the economy. A new data-set, including the possible occurrence of CBI-reforms in 132 countries during 1980-2005, was collected. Politicians in non-OECD countries were more likely to delegate power to independent central banks if their country had been characterized by high variability in inflation and if they faced a high probability of being replaced. No such effects were found for OECD countries.    Paper [2], using a difference-in-difference approach, studies whether CBI reform matters for inflation performance. The analysis is based on a dataset including the possible occurrence of CBI-reforms in 132 countries during the period of 1980-2005. CBI reform is found to have contributed to bringing down inflation in high-inflation countries, but it seems unrelated to inflation performance in low-inflation countries.    Paper [3] investigates whether CBI-reforms are important in reducing inflation and maintaining price stability, using a random-effects random-coefficients model to account for heterogeneity in the effects of CBI-reforms on inflation. CBI-reforms are found to have reduced inflation on average by 3.31 percent, but the effect is only present when countries with historically high inflation rates are included in the sample. Countries with more modest inflation rates have achieved low inflation without institutional reforms that grant central banks more independence, thus undermining the time-inconsistency theory case for CBI. There is furthermore no evidence that CBI-reforms have contributed to lower inflation variability    Paper [4] studies the relationship between CBI and a suggested trade-off between price variability and output variability using data on CBI-levels, and data the on implementation dates of CBI-reforms. The results question the existence of such a trade-off, but indicate that there may still be potential gains in stabilization policy from CBI-reforms.