In the current study, we have presented a systematic analysis of the diurnal cycle of rainfall over the Indian region using satellite observations, and evaluated the ability of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to simulate some of the salient features of the observed diurnal characteristics of rainfall. Using high resolution simulations, we also investigate the underlying mechanisms of some of the observed diurnal signatures of rainfall. Using the Tropical Rain-fall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3-hourly, 0.25 ×0.25 degree 3B42 rainfall product for nine years (1999-2007), we extract the finer spatial structure of the diurnal scale signature of Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Using harmonic analysis, we construct a signal corresponding to diurnal and sub-diurnal variability. Subsequently, the 3-hourly time-period or the octet of rain-fall peak for this filtered signal, referred to as the “peak octet,” is estimated with care taken to eliminate spurious peaks arising out of Gibbs oscillations. Our analysis suggests that over the Bay of Bengal, there are three distinct modes of the peak octet of diurnal rainfall corresponding to 1130, 1430 and 1730 IST, from north central to south Bay. This finding could be seen to be consistent with southward propagation of the diurnal rainfall pattern reported by earlier studies. Over the Arabian sea, there is a spatially coherent pattern in the mode of the peak octet (1430 IST), in a region where it rains for more than 30% of the time. In the equatorial Indian Ocean, while most of the western part shows a late night/early morning peak, the eastern part does not show a spatially coherent pattern in the mode of the peak octet, owing to the occurrence of a dual maxima (early morning and early/late afternoon). The Himalayan foothills were found to have a mode of peak octet corresponding to 0230 IST, whereas over the Burmese mountains and the Western Ghats (west coast of India) the rainfall peaks during late afternoon/early evening (1430-1730 IST). This implies that the phase of the diurnal cycle over inland orography (e.g., Himalayas) is significantly different from coastal orography (e.g., Western Ghats). We also find that over the Gangetic plains, the peak octet is around 1430 IST, a few hours earlier compared to the typical early evening maxima over land. The second part of our study involves evaluating the ability of the Weather Research and Fore-casting Model (WRF) to simulate the observed diurnal rainfall characteristics. It also includes conducting high resolution simulations to explore the underlying physical mechanisms of the observed diurnal signatures of rainfall. The model (at 54km resolution) is integrated for the month of July 2006 since this period was particularly favourable for the study of diurnal cycle. We first evaluate the sensitivity of the model to the prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) by using two different SST datasets, namely Final Analyses (FNL) and Real-time Global (RTG). The overall performance of RTG SST was found to be better than FNL, and hence it was used for further model simulations. Next, we investigated the impact of different parameterisations (convective, microphysical, boundary layer, radiation and land surface) on the simulation of diurnal cycle of rainfall. Following this sensitivity study, we identified the suite of physical parameterisations in the model that “best” reproduces the observed diurnal characteristics of Indian monsoon rainfall. The “best” model configuration was used to conduct two nested simulations with one-way, three-level nesting (54-18-6km) over central India and Bay of Bengal. While the 54km and 18km simulations were conducted for July 2006, the 6km simulation was carried out for the period 18-24 July 2006. This period was chosen for our study since it is composed of an active period (19-21 July 2006), followed by a break period (22-24 July 2006). At 6km grid-spacing the model is able to realistically simulate the active and break phases in rainfall. During the chosen active phase, we find that the observed rainfall over central India tends to reach a maximum in the late night/early morning hours. This is in contrast to the observed climatological diurnal maxima of late evening hours. Interestingly, the 6km simulation for the active phase is able to reproduce this late night/early morning maxima. Upon further analysis, we find that this is because of the strong moisture convergence at the mid-troposphere during 2030-2330 IST, leading to the rainfall peak seen during 2330-0230 IST. Based on our analysis, we conclude that during both active and break phases of summer monsoon, mid-level moisture convergence seems to be one of the primary factors governing the phase of the diurnal cycle of rainfall. Over the Bay of Bengal, the 6km model simulation is in very good agreement with observations, particularly during the active phase. The southward propagation observed during 19-20 July 2006, which was not captured by the coarse resolution simulation (54km), is exceedingly well captured by the 6km simulation. The positive anomalies in specific humidity attain a maxima during 2030-0230 IST in the north and during 0830-1430 IST in the south. This confirms the role of moisture convergence in the southward propagation of rainfall. Equally importantly we find that while low level moisture convergence is dominant in the north Bay, it is the mid-level moisture convergence that is predominant in the south Bay.

During the boreal cool season, regional climate in the United States is strongly impacted by extreme temperature regimes (ETRs), including both cold air outbreaks (CAOs) and warm waves (WWs), which have significant impacts on energy consumption, agriculture, as well as the human population. Using NCEP/NCAR and MERRA reanalysis data, the statistical characteristics of ETRs over three distinct geographical regions are studied: the Midwest (MW), Northeast Megalopolis (NE), and Deep South (SE). The regional long-term variability in the frequency and amplitude of ETRs is examined, and the modulation of these ETRs by low frequency modes is quantified. ETR behavior is characterized using three different metrics applied to both T and Twc: 1) the number of extreme cold/warm days, 2) a seasonal cumulative "impact factor", and 3) a peak normalized anomaly value. A trend analysis reveals a significant downward trend in SE WW events from 1949-2011. Otherwise, no significant trends are found for ETRs in any of the other regions. Thus, these results indicate that there has not been any significant reduction in either the amplitude or frequency of CAOs over the United States during the period of analysis. In fact, for the SE region, the recent winters of 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 both rank among the top 5 in terms of CAO metrics. In addition, strong interannual variability in ETRs is evident from 1949-2011 in each region. Linear regression analysis is then used to determine the associations between ETR metrics and the seasonal mean state of several low frequency modes, and it is found that ETRs tend to be modulated by certain low frequency modes. For instance, in the SE region, there is a significant association between ETRs and the phase of the North Atlantic (or Arctic) Oscillation (NAO/AO), the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern (for WWs only), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (for WWs only). Over the MW region, WWs are modulated by the NAO/AO and PNA patterns, while in the NE region, the AO, NAO (for WWs only) and PDO (for WWs only) are implicated. In addition, it is found that there is an asymmetry between the low frequency mode modulation of CAOs and WWs. Multiple linear regression analysis is then used to quantify the relative roles of the various low frequency modes in explaining interannual variability in ETR metrics, and reveals that various combinations of low frequency modes can explain anywhere between 10% and 50% of the variance in the ETR metrics.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-12-23T13:47:35Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Rafael Almeida Magris.pdf: 1237040 bytes, checksum: 07bea7179db169152f53f5f9f64662ff (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008-03-24 / A variabilidade interanual, sazonal e entre as fases da maré da comunidade de Copepoda no estuário do rio Mucuri (Bahia, Brasil) foi estudada. Foram coletadas amostras de plâncton em cada estação do ano por um período de cinco anos (2002-2006) em três pontos de amostragem; sendo que em um deles, as amostragens aconteceram de acordo com o ciclo de marés (duas na enchente e duas na vazante). Dados de temperatura, salinidade, pluviosidade e vazão do rio foram obtidos. O inverno e o verão se destacaram por representarem o período seco e o chuvoso, respectivamente. A representatividade de Copepoda na comunidade zooplanctônica variou entre 40 e 63% da abundância total de espécies, e foi composta por 46 taxa, sendo dominada por espécies comuns nos ecossistemas estuarinos (Temora turbinata, Parvocalanus crassirostris, Acartia lilljeborgi, Oithona hebes, dentre outras). Foram encontrados indivíduos em todos os estágios do ciclo de vida, exemplificando o papel do estuário na reprodução e crescimento das espécies. Para espécies estenohalinas (e.g. Notodiaptomus sp. e Thermocyclops minutus), as variações interanuais e sazonais parecem ser mais importantes enquanto as espécies eurihalinas (a maioria das espécies dominantes) tiveram suas densidades controladas pela variabilidade entre as fases de maré. / Copepod community variability among years, seasons and tidal fluctuations at the Mucuri River estuary (Bahia, Brasil) were studied. Zooplankton samples were collected in each season for a period of five years (2002-2006) at three sampling stations; with one of the stations sampled at each tidal cycle (two neap and two flood tides). Temperature, salinity, river flow and rainfall data were obtained. Winter and summer represented the dry and wet seasons, respectively. Copepods abundance ranged from 40 to 63% of the total zooplankton community and was composed of 46 taxa, dominated by common estuarine species such as Temora turbinata, Parvocalanus crassirostris, Acartia lilljeborgi, Oithona hebes, among others). Individuals in all of the life stages were found, exemplifying the role of the estuary in the reproduction and growth of several species. For the stenohaline species (e.g. Notodiaptomus sp. and Thermocyclops minutus), interannual and seasonal variations seems to be more important while for the euryhaline species (the majority of the dominant ones) had their densities controlled by tidal variability.

La langue d'eau froide Atlantique est un refroidissement saisonnier qui affecte les eaux superficielles au sud de l'équateur entre les côtes africaines et 30°W environ, pendant la " saison froide " (entre mai et octobre). Ce phénomène se produit tous les ans, mais son intensité, sa durée, ainsi que son extension spatiale sont très variables d'une année sur l'autre. En dépit du couplage très marqué qui lie la langue d'eau froide et les premiers stades de la mousson africaine, les causes de cette variabilité interannuelle sont peu connues. Cette thèse a pour objectif de combler cette lacune en améliorant notre compréhension des processus océaniques contrôlant la variabilité interannuelle de la langue d'eau froide. Cette étude se focalise sur les événements " intenses" de la langue d'eau froide, correspondant à des refroidissements anormalement forts (faibles), précédés par des anomalies négatives (positives) de vent zonal. On se focalise ainsi sur les événements dits " canoniques ", les plus nombreux, et potentiellement similaires en terme de mécanisme. Cette classification, appliquée à une dizaine de réanalyses, permet de retenir, avec une robustesse certaine, cinq années dans chacune des classes. Ces événements sont étudiés grâce à des simulations numériques réalistes. L'utilisation de bilans de chaleur nous a permis d'accéder aux processus physiques qui contrôlent la formation des événements froids et chauds. Le mélange vertical à la base de la couche de mélange apparaît comme le processus fondamental de la variabilité interannuelle de la langue d'eau froide. Lors des événements froids, il accroît le refroidissement entre mars et juillet, alors que son rôle reste discret lors des événements chauds. Au milieu de l'été boréal, les anomalies de mélange vertical sont contrebalancées par des anomalies d'advection horizontale de signes opposés. Ainsi les événements froids comme chauds sont atténués en fin de saison. Cette thèse montre qu'il est plus pertinent de s'intéresser au flux d'énergie cinétique qui est plus directement lié à l'activation du mélange vertical, qu'à la tension de vent en surface. Le flux d'énergie cinétique semble d'autant plus pertinent qu'il joue aussi un rôle majeur lors des événements intenses " non-canoniques ", i.e. événements froids (chauds), précédés par des anomalies positives (négatives) de vent zonal. Enfin, la modulation de la vitesse verticale induite par le vent tend à ajuster i) la profondeur de la couche de mélange, ii) la pente de la thermocline, et iii) le cisaillement vertical de courant zonal. Ce sont des paramètres clés du mélange vertical et donc du taux de refroidissement. La vitesse verticale joue donc un rôle indirect dans l'établissement et la variabilité interannuelle de la langue d'eau froide. / The Atlantic cold tongue is a seasonal cooling of the sea surface temperature south of the Equator between the African coasts and around 30°W during the " cold season " (from May to October). The cooling occurs every year but its intensity, duration and spatial extent vary strongly from one year to another. In spite of the very strong coupling between the Atlantic cold tongue and the West African monsoon, the origin of the Atlantic cold tongue variability is not well described. This thesis aims at filling this gap by improving our understanding of the oceanic processes controlling the variability of the Atlantic cold tongue. This study focuses on " intense " Atlantic cold tongue events, defined by abnormally strong (weak) cooling, preceded by negative (positive) zonal wind anomalies. Thus " canonical " being studied, that are the most frequent and probably similar in terms of mechanisms. This classification is applied to ten reanalyses and allows to select with good confidence, five events in each group. These events are studied through realistic simulations. The use of on-line heat budget allows to identify the physical processes that control the formation of cold and warm events. Vertical mixing at the base of the mixed-layer is the fundamental process controlling the interannual variability of the cold tongue. During cold events, it increases the cooling between March and July, while it remains weak during warm events. During boreal summer, vertical mixing anomalies are balanced by horizontal advection anomalies of opposite sign. So cold and warm events are weakened at the end of the season. This thesis highlights that it is more appropriate to focus on the wind energy flux because it is more directly related to the activation of vertical mixing, rather than on the surface wind stress. The wind energy flux is relevant since it is also shown to play a major role during intense " non-canonical " events, i.e. cold (warm) events preceded by positive (negative) zonal wind anomalies. Finally, the modulation of the vertical velocity induced by the wind tends to adjust i) the mixed-layer depth, ii) the intensity of the thermocline, and iii) the vertical shear of the zonal current. These are key parameters of vertical mixing and therefore the cooling rate. Thus, vertical velocity plays an indirect role in the establishment and interannual variability of the Atlantic cold tongue.

No description available.

Em escalas interanuais a advecção de calor, sal e nutrientes pode afetar a produtividade primária. Pode-se citar a Circulação de Revolvimento Meridional (MOC) no impacto da concentração de clorofila. Neste estudo, a partir do método Multidimensional Empirical Mode Decomposition foram obtidos tendências decadais de PAR, nitrato integrado na coluna d\'água, concentração de clorofila e fluxo de volume da MOC. Em variações de baixa frequência há uma relação entre o transporte de volume da MOC com o nitrato integrado na coluna d\'água no Atlântico Sul, e consequentemente, na concentração de clorofila. Dois possíveis cenários foram identificados sobre o efeito da MOC no nitrato integrado e na concentração de clorofila. O cenário 1 apresenta uma relação direta no sistema MOC-nitrato integrado-concentração de clorofila, enquanto o efeito do cenário 2 é indireto, com a MOC afetando outras variáveis que perturbam o sistema. Neste estudo também foi analisado a influência de teleconexões atmosféricas na MOC do Atlântico Sul. Foi achado indícios da influência da Oscilação Antártica na MOC do Atlântico Sul em escalas decadais. Conclui-se que variações de baixa frequência no fluxo de volume da MOC alteram o padrão espaço-temporal da concentração de clorofila no Atlântico Sul. / On interannual timescales the advection of heat, salt and nutrients can affect the primary production. The influence of the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) over the chlorophyll concentration can be mentioned. In this study, decadal trends of PAR, integrated nitrate over the water column, chlorophyll and volume flux of the MOC were obtained using the Multidimensional Empirical Mode Decomposition method. On low frequency variations there is a relationship between the MOC volume transport with integrated nitrate over the water column in the South Atlantic, and therefore, on chlorophyll concentration. Two scenarios were identified as possible mechanisms of influence of the MOC over integrated nitrate and chlorophyll concentrations. Scenario 1 presents a direct relationship on the system MOC-integrated nitrate-chlorophyll concentration, while scenario 2 has an indirect effect, with the MOC affecting other variables that disturb the system. In this study the influence of atmospheric teleconnections on the South Atlantic MOC were also investigated. It was found evidence that the Antarctic Oscillation can affect the South Atlantic MOC on decadal timescales. It was concluded that low frequency variability on the volume flux of the MOC can alter the spatiotemporal pattern of the chlorophyll concentration on the South Atlantic.

Le saumon Atlantique fait partie du patrimoine écologique et économique du bassin de l’Adour. Dans le cadre de la gestion actuelle du saumon dans ce bassin, l’origine natale des géniteurs, le taux de retour des individus d’origine piscicole, le taux de homing sur chaque sous-bassin ou encore le soutient par des géniteurs extérieurs au bassin de l’Adour sont des thématiques qui restent sans réponses. Ce projet propose donc de tester le potentiel de la géochimie des otolithes sur le saumon Atlantique du bassin de l’Adour. Nos travaux démontrent que la variation géographique de la composition chimique de l’eau dans 12 rivières colonisées par le saumon, associée à un enregistrement dans l’otolithe proportionnel à la signature géochimique du milieu de vie, permettent de discriminer l’origine géographique des individus. La combinaison des signatures élémentaires (Sr:Ca et Ba:Ca) et surtout l’isotopie du Sr (temporellement plus stable et sans fractionnement biologique) dans les otolithes améliore la précision du classement à l’échelle de la rivière de développement. En se basant sur la transmission de signatures géochimiques (élémentaires et isotopiques) transgénérationelles entre la femelle reproductrice et les otolithes des embryons produits par cette dernière, nous avons discriminé avec succès les individus nés en rivière de ceux nés en pisciculture. Le classement des géniteurs (180 individus) selon leur rivière natale a confirmé que le sous bassin du gave d’Oloron, et plus particulièrement le gave d’Ossau, reste le lieu qui produit le plus de saumon de retour. De façon non négligeable, le gave de Pau contribue lui aussi au renouvellement de la population (10 d’origine piscicole et 6 d’origine naturelle). 18 saumons sur 180 sont issus de l’alevinage (soit 10%); la majorité s’étant développée dans le sous-bassin du gave de Pau. Par ailleurs, nous avons mis à jour l’existence de périodes au cours de la vie des juvéniles (changements de milieu: sac vitellin—milieu extérieur et pisciculture—rivière) durant lesquelles l’enregistrement du Ba dans l’otolithe n’est pas en relation avec la chimie de l’eau. L’originalité de notre approche est d’avoir étudié l’influence des facteurs endogènes et environnementaux chez des poissons ayant vécu dans le milieu naturel ou ayant séjourné en milieu naturel contrôlé. Nos travaux mettent l’accent sur la complexité de l’intégration du rapport Ba:Ca dans l’otolithe et démontrent l’utilité des éléments traces et des isotopes du Sr comme « tag naturel » pour distinguer l’origine natale du saumon Atlantique. / The Adour basin holds one of the largest populations of Atlantic salmon in southern Europe exploited by commercial and sport fisheries. Determining the relative contributions of individual rivers and hatcheries to the Adour basin populations becomes crucial to understand key sources that contribute the most to its persistence. We successfully used Sr:Ca, Ba:Ca and 87Sr:86Sr ratios as natural tags for determining the natal origins of adults from 12 tributaries. Success in discriminating between fish from different sites was greatest using Sr isotopes since the latter remained relatively constant across years at a given location. Geochemical signatures from core regions of the otolith were also used to identify fish from hatchery or naturally spawned sources. The predominance of adults spawned in the Ossau River among returning adults corresponded with long-term juvenile production trends in the Ossau River. Despite the limited upstream accessibility of the Pau River, our study demonstrated that Atlantic salmon recruits can successfully leave this river to join the adult population in the Adour basin. We observed relatively clear separation between hatchery and wild juveniles using both Sr:Cacore (wild > 2.5 and hatchery < 0.80) and 87Sr:86Srcore (wild < 0.710 and hatchery > 0.710). The return of hatchery reared fish as adult spawners represented 10% of the total sampled fish we analyzed. Almost all adults, previously identified as belonging to the Ouzom River, were hatchery produced. Adults originated from the Pau River were either wild or hatchery reared fish. We also conducted field controlled experiments that characterized the elemental uptake process in juvenile Atlantic salmon otoliths during freshwater residency. Physiological effects influenced Ba deposition. Ba:Ca otolith profiles from hatchery-reared and field collected fish were characterised by a peak at yolk absorption mark. Hatchery-reared fish stocked in a river also displayed a peak of Ba:Ca following transfer which was not related to the water chemistry. Our experiment revealed a 20-day lag time between initial Ba:Cawater changes and Ba:Caotolith saturation. Results suggested that such effects should be considered during any attempts to determine rivers of origin of Atlantic salmon based on otolith elemental composition or reconstruct the movement of individual fish among and within streams.

In first part of the study we discuss impact of dynamical core in simulation of tropical rainfall. Over years many new dynamical cores have been developed for atmospheric models to increase efficiency and reduce numerical errors. CAM3.1 gives an opportunity to study the impact of the dynamical core on simulations with its three dynamical cores namely Eulerian spectral(EUL) , Semilagrangian dynamics(SLD) and Finite volume(FV) coupled to a single parametrization package. A past study has compared dynamical cores of CAM3 in terms on tracer transport and has showed advantages using FV in terms of tracer transport. In this study we compare the dynamical cores in climate simulations and at their optimal configuration, which is the intended use of the model. The model is forced with AMIP type SST and rainfall over seasonal, interannual scales is compared. The significant differences in simulation of seasonal mean exist over tropics and over monsoon regions with observations and among dynamical cores. The differences among EUL and SLD, which use spectral transform methods are lesser compared that of with FV clearly indicating role of numerics in differences. There exist major errors in simulation of seasonal cycle in all dynamical cores and errors in simulation of seasonal means over many regions are associated with errors in simulation of seasonal cycle such as over south china sea. Seasonal cycle in FV is weaker compared to SLD and EUL. The dynamical cores exhibit different interannual variability of rainfall over Indian monsoon region, the period of maximum power corresponding to a dynamical core differs substantially with another. From this study there seems no superiority associated with FV dynamical core over all climate scales as seen in tracer transport. The next part of the study deals with impact of diurnal ocean atmosphere coupling in an AGCM,CAM3.1. Due to relatively low magnitude of diurnal cycle of SST and lack of SST observations over diurnal scales current atmospheric models are forced with SSTs of periods grater than a day. CAM 3.1 standalone model is forced with monthly SSTs but the interpolation is linear to every time step between any two months and this linear interpolation implies a linear diurnal and intraseasonal variation of SST which is not true in nature. To test the sensitivity of CAM3.1 to coupling of SST on diurnal scales, we prescribed over tropics(20S20N) a diurnal cycle of SST over daily mean interpolated SST of different magnitudes and phase comparable to observations. This idea of using a diurnal cycle of SST retaining seasonal mean SST in an atmospheric model is novel and provides an interesting frame work to test sensitivity of model to interpolations used in coupling of boundary conditions. Our analysis shows a high impact of using diurnal cycle of SST on simulation of mean rainfall over tropics. The impact in a case where diurnal cycle of SST is fixed and retained to daily mean SST implies that changes associated with a coupled model are to some extent due to change in representation of diurnal cycle of SST. A decrease of excess rainfall over western coast of Bay of Bengal and an increase of rainfall over northern bay of Bengal in such case is similar to the improvement due to coupling atmospheric model to a slab ocean model. This also implies that problems with current AMIP models in simulation of seasonal mean Indian monsoon rainfall could be due to erroneous representation of diurnal cycle of SST in models over this region where the diurnal cycle of SST is high in observations. The high spatial variability of the impact in various cases over tropics implies that a similar spatial variation of diurnal cycle could be important for accurate simulation of rainfall over tropics. Preliminary analysis shows that impact on rainfall was due to changes in moisture convergence. We also hypothesized that diurnal cycle of SST could trigger convection over regions such as northern Bay of Bengal and rainfall convergence feedback sustains it. The impact was also found on simulation of internal interannual variability of rainfall

Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is an important component of the tropical climate system, known for its regular seasonality and abundance of rainfall over the country. The droughts and floods associated with the year-to-year variation of the average seasonal rainfall have devastating effect on people, agriculture and economy of this region. The demand for prediction of seasonal monsoon rainfall, therefore, is overwhelming. A number of attempts to predict the seasonal mean monsoon have been made over a century, but neither dynamical nor empirical models provide skillful forecasts of the extremes of the monsoon such as the unprecedented drought of 2002. This study investigates the problems and prospects of extended range monsoon prediction. An evaluation of the potential predictability of the ISM with the aid of an ensemble of Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) simulations indicates that the interannual variability (IAV) of ISM is contributed equally by the slow boundary forcing (‘externally’ forced variability) and the inherent climate noise (‘internal’ variability) in the atmosphere. Success in predicting the ISM would depend on our ability to extract the predictable signal from a background of noise of comparable amplitude. This would be possible only if the ‘external’ variability is separable from the ‘internal’ variability. A serious effort has been made to understand and isolate the sea surface temperature (SST) forced component of ISM variability that is not strongly influenced by the ‘internal’ variability. In addition, we have investigated to unravel the mechanism of generation of ‘internal’ IAV so that the method of isolating it from forced variability may be found. Since the primary forcing mechanism of the monsoon is the large-scale meridional gradient of deep tropospheric heat sources, large-scale changes in tropospheric temperature (TT) due to the boundary forcing can induce interannual variations of the timing and duration of the monsoon season. The concept of interannually varying monsoon season is introduced here, with the onset and withdrawal of monsoon definitions based on the reversal of meridional gradient of TT between north and south. This large scale definition of the monsoon season is representative of the planetary scale influence of the El Ni˜no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on monsoon through the modification of TT and the cross equatorial pressure gradient over the ISM region. A sig- nificant relationship between ENSO and monsoon, that has remained steady over the decades, is discovered by which an El Ni˜no (La Ni˜na) delays (advances) the onset, advances (delays) the withdrawal and suppresses (enhances) the strength of the monsoon. The integral effect of the meridional gradient of TT from the onset to withdrawal proves to be a useful index of seasonal monsoon which isolates the boundary forced signal from the influence of internal variations that has remained steady even in the recent decades. However, consistent with the estimates of potential predictability, the boundary forced variability isolated with the above definitions explains only about 50% of the total interannual variability of ISM. Detailed diagnostics of the onset and withdrawal processes are performed to understand how the ENSO forcing modifies the onset and withdrawal, and thus the seasonal mean monsoon. It is found that during an El Ni˜no, the onset is delayed due to the enhanced adiabatic subsidence that inhibits vertical mixing of sensible heating from the warm landmass during pre-monsoon months, and the withdrawal is advanced due to the horizontal advective cooling. This link between ENSO and monsoon is realized through the advective processes associated with the stationary waves in the upper troposphere set up by the tropical ENSO heating. The remaining 50% of the monsoon IAV is governed by internal processes. To unravel the mechanism of the generation of internal IAV, we perform another set of AGCM simulations, forced with climatological monthly mean SSTs, to extract the pure internal IAV. We find that the spatial structure of the intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) in these simulations has significant projection on the spatial structure of the seasonal mean and a common spatial mode governs both intraseasonal and interannual variability. Statistical average of ISO anomalies over the season (seasonal ISO bias) strengthens or weakens the seasonal mean. It is shown that interannual anomalies of seasonal mean are closely related to the seasonal mean of intraseasonal anomalies and explain about 50% of the IAV of the seasonal mean. The seasonal mean ISO bias arises partly due to the broadband nature of the ISO spectrum, allowing the intraseasonal time series to be aperiodic over the season and partly due to a non-linear process where the amplitude of ISO activity is proportional to the seasonal bias of ISO anomalies. The later relationship is a manifestation of the binomial character of the rainfall time series. The remaining part of IAV may arise due to the complex land-surface processes, scale interactions, etc. We also find that the ISOs over the ISM region are not significantly modulated by the Pacific and Indian Ocean SST variations. Thus, even with a perfect prediction of SST, only about 50% of the observed IAV of ISM could be predicted with the best model in forced mode. Even so, prediction of all India rainfall (AIR) representing the average conditions of the whole country and the season may not always serve the purposes of monsoon forecasting. One reason is the large inhomogeneities in the rainfall distribution during a normal seasonal monsoon. Agriculture and hydrological sector could benefit more if provided with regional scale forecasts of active/break spells 2-3 weeks ahead. Therefore, we advocate an alternative strategy to the seasonal prediction. Here, we present a method to estimate the potential predictability of active and break conditions from daily rainfall and circulation from observations for the recent 24 years. We discover that transitions from break to active conditions are much more chaotic than those from active to break, a fundamental property of the monsoon ISOs. The potential predictability limit of monsoon breaks (∼20 days) is significantly higher than that of the active conditions (∼10 days). An empirical real- time forecasting strategy to predict the sub-seasonal variations of monsoon up to 4 pentads (20 days) in advance is developed. The method is physically based, with the consideration that the large-scale spatial patterns and slow evolution of monsoon intraseasonal variations possess some similarity in their evolutions from one event to the other. This analog method is applied on NOAA outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) pentad mean data which is available on a near real time basis. The elimination of high frequency variability and the use of spatial and temporal analogs produces high and useful skill of predictions over the central and northern Indian region for a lead-time of 4-5 pentads. An important feature of this method is that, unlike other empirical methods to forecast monsoon ISOs, this uses minimal time filtering to avoid any possible end-point effects, and hence it has immense potential for real-time applications.

Title from PDF of title page. / Document formatted into pages; contains 79 pages. / Thesis (M.S.)--University of South Florida, 2003. / Includes bibliographical references. / Text (Electronic thesis) in PDF format. / ABSTRACT: Monthly d18O and Sr/Ca records generated from modern and fossil corals from Southwestern Pacific Ocean sites in the Republic of Vanuatu are used to assess the differences in mean climate state, seasonality, and interannual variability between a glacial and interglacial period. The modern coral contains a well-defined annual signal in d18O and Sr/Ca. The top 40 cm of the coral used in this study has a mean d18O value of -4.99+/-0.13%VPDB (2s) and a mean Sr/Ca value of 8.691+/-0.015mmol/mol (2s). El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events are characterized by positive d18O and Sr/Ca anomalies, consistent with cooler temperatures and reduced rainfall that typifies ENSO at Vanuatu. The 12cm long fossil coral is dated to 346 ka + 25, - 9, based on uranium-series analysis and stratigraphic forward modeling, indicating that the fossil coral grew during MIS10 - a glacial period. / ABSTRACT: X-ray diffraction, petrographic inspection, SEM analysis, and geochemical considerations indicate excellent preservation. The mean d18O value is enriched by 0.74%, and the mean Sr/Ca value is equivalent, compared to the modern coral. Mathematical modeling of Pleistocene mean SST and SSS results in temperature estimates up to 2?C warmer and salinity up to 2 psu saltier than present-day conditions, if seawater Sr/Ca were 1-2% higher in MIS10. Our fossil coral data and modeling results preclude colder SST and lower SSS at Vanuatu during MIS10. Accurate estimates of past values of seawater Sr/Ca remain the largest obstacle to accurately reconstructing past tropical SST using pristine fossil corals. The fossil coral Sr/Ca annual range is similar to the modern range, indicating that seasonal SST ranges were similar, whereas the d18O annual range is about half that of the modern coral, indicating weaker past seasonal salinity variations. / ABSTRACT: The reduced seasonal SSS variations and increased SSTs near Vanuatu are interpreted as evidence that the SPCZ was displaced from its present location while the fossil coral lived. The geochemical response to El Nino events in the modern coral is observed twice in the fossil coral record, indicating that ENSO-like processes are not unique to interglacial time periods, but characterize the tropical Pacific at least back to MIS 10. / System requirements: World Wide Web browser and PDF reader. / Mode of access: World Wide Web.