This study uses cluster analysis as the methodology to explore policy of the asset allocation as well as the selection of equities under the multiple-factor asset pricing models. Based on the data of financial market recorded on Bloomberg from 2000/1/4 to 2012/2/10, the conclusions of this study are summarized as following: First at all, under the significance level of 5%, P/S ratio should be included in the multiple-factor asset pricing model. Nonetheless, the significance of proxy agent of foreign exchange volatility in terms of 11-day moving average of USD/JPY foreign exchange spot rate, as well as the interest spread in terms of yields on 10-year US government bond subtracting 3-month US treasury bill cannot pass the required significance level. Second, the rates of stock return as Qualcomm, Intel and Texas instruments in the industry supply chain of technology products, will be positively related to interest spread, with the variable of ¡§Foreign_Volitility¡¨ negatively related to those rates of return as well as sales growth momentum positively related to those. As far as those rates of stock return 3C brand companies such as Apple, Microsoft, Dell and IBM, the interpreting capability of variable of ¡§Foreign_Volitility¡¨ under the assumptions of market structure in this study, will be mixed, with the interest spread positively related to those returns and P/S ratio generating mixed outcomes. As far as those equities such as GE, Procter & Gamble, Home Depot, Tiffany, AIG, NIKE, Exxon Mobile Corp, the interpreting capability of variable of ¡§Foreign_Volitility¡¨ under the assumptions of market structure in this study, will be negatively related to stock return except for Exxon Mobile Corp, with the interest spread generating mixed outcomes and P/S ratio positively related to those returns.

在全球股市呈現不穩的情勢下，雙元外匯存款產品成為財富管理業務所發展的熱門產品。雙元外匯存款產品結構包括外匯選擇權與定期外幣存款。然外匯選擇權的操作過程所隱含的風險必須加以探討，因此本研究以美國那斯達克股市報酬率與美國國庫券與十年期公債利差等資訊，試著藉由集群分析，探討美元兌澳幣(USD/AUD)、美元兌英鎊(USD/GBP)、歐元兌澳幣(EUR/AUD)等元存款產品之報酬率與風險。 本研究實證結果為: 一、不同市場狀態的操作策略不同 從各集群的涵義來看，當市場狀態屬於集群1時，此時Nasdaq指數日報酬率處於高檔但已有長期成長疑慮下，則「短期看多澳幣，看空美元」為一正確的外匯策略判斷基礎。當市場處於集群2的經濟成長性與股市報酬率處於較樂觀的狀態下，「短期看多英鎊，看空美元」與「短期看空美元，看多澳幣」是較適合的判斷。當市場處於集群3的股市低檔與債券市場反映經濟成長訊息的狀態下，則「看多澳幣，看空歐元」與「短期看空澳幣，看多美元」等為較佳的策略思維。 二、雙元存款產品的現金流量補償機制必須依據不同市場狀態 本研究發現雙元外匯存款產品在不同匯率與不同集群下，會有不同的Mean/StDev值，代表投資者與財富管理業者必須面對外匯市場進行利益的分配問題。目前雙元外匯存款產品都有設定不同匯率下的保本機制，故對於財富管理業者而言，雙元外匯存款產品屬於資金短期配置的選項之一，因此，針對不同的總體經濟或市場環境，業者必須快速調整，創造投資者與業者雙贏的局面。 / With the global stock markets unstable, foreign-exchange-option-linked dual currency structure notes have become the popular products for wealth management. Foreign-exchange-option-linked dual currency structure notes have been involved with foreign exchange option and currency deposit. Nonetheless, the risks inherent in the currency option should be discussed . Therefore, this study uses cluster analysis to explore the information in Nasdaq index returns and interest spreads , to discover the returns and risks in foreign exchange rates in term of “USD/AUD”, “USD/GBP”, and “EUR/AUD”. After the analysis in this study, the conclusions of this study could be summarized as following: Firstly , the proposals and strategies for the dual currency structure notes should be based on the statuses of markets. With market status showing higher stock returns but concerns for future economic growth, the appropriate strategies should be built up on the concept of “short USD, long AUD in near term”. When market status showing positive stock returns and positive future economic growth, the appropriate strategies should be built up on the concept of “short USD, long AUD in near term” or “short USD, long GBP in near term”. With market status reflecting lower stock returns but positive perspectives for future economic growth, the appropriate strategies should be built up on the concept of “short EURO, long AUD in near term”, or “short AUD, long USD in near term”. Based on the Mean/StDev , this study suggests the wealth managers should design different portfolios under different scenarios in foreign exchange rates, to generate best payoffs between the investors and wealth managers.

國內壽險公司面臨資金不斷累積與同業間激烈競爭，加上全球經濟動盪不安，國際金融偶有黑天鵝事件發生，尤以2008年金融海嘯重創全球產業為最，壽險業亦難以倖免，肇致壽險業者經營益顯艱困。因此，為維繫公司永續經營，規劃長期財務穩健性至關重要。是故，如何訂定投資策略與妥適資產配置，並兼顧風險管理，為當前壽險公司重要課題。 本研究分析郵政壽險資產配置行為，歸納影響公司資產配置之內、外在因素，例如流動性風險、利率風險、信用風險、資本適足率、匯率風險及法令規範等因素，皆影響資產配置策略。另為建構最佳資產配置，提升獲利，逐步改善財務結構，在現行法令限制下，運用Markowitz之投資組合理論為分析工具，導出效率前緣線，再運用夏普指標績效分析，來建立最佳投資組合。 另外分析壽險公司必須正視未來「國際會計準則」（International Financial Reporting Standards, IFRS）IFRS 4第二階段適用公平價值評估負債，利差損問題會更加嚴重，對業務發展與負債評價將產生巨大衝擊。尤其我國壽險業發行商品大都以長年期終身險為主，若壽險商品負債評價與資產不一致時，其缺口將因利率變化影響損益波動。 / Abstract Domestic life insurers are in a challenging environment with increasing asset size to manage and fierce competition within the industry. Moreover, the world economy is going down a bumpy path. Every now and then in the global financial system, we encounter a black swan event. Among them, the financial tsunami of 2008 hit global industries most severely. The financial tsunami of 2008 also left life insurers having an increasingly difficult time running the business. It is crucial to have sound long-term financial plans in order to ensure business sustainability. Therefore, how to form an investment strategy, determine asset allocation and manage risks at the same time becomes a critical issue for life insurers. The research studies the asset allocation behavior of Chunghwa Post insurance sector and lists both the internal and the external factors affecting asset allocation. Factors like liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, capital adequacy, currency risk and regulations all have some influence on the asset allocation strategy. Meanwhile, the research constructs efficient frontier with Markowitz Portfolio Theory and adopts Sharpe ratio as the performance measure to build an optimal portfolio under current regulations with the goal of optimizing asset allocation, boosting profits and gradually improving the financial structure. The research also studies the tremendous impact of IFRS 4 on business development and liability valuation of life insurance companies. The implementation of IFRS 4 Phase II will require fair value measurement of liabilities, which will exacerbate the negative interest spread problem. When the liability valuation approach of insurance products is not in line with asset valuation, the gap will intensify the income fluctuations from interest rate movements, especially for domestic life insurers whose main products are long-term whole life policies.

Abstract in English, Zulu and Sepedi / The purpose of this study was to determine the impact of capital structure on the profitability of the Land and Agricultural Development Bank of South Africa (Land Bank). Both theoretical and empirical literature were reviewed in order to guide the empirical investigation of this study. In particular, the theories of financial intermediation, credit creation and fractional reserve formed the basis of this study. The capital structure theories that were examined included the pecking order theory, trade-off theory and Modigliani-Miller leverage irrelevance theory. In the literature, it was observed that profitable companies prefer using internal funds over debt or equity. To test the stated hypothesis that there is no relationship between capital structure and bank profitability, a quantitative research design with a case study approach was used, with the Land Bank as the unit of analysis. Using time series data for the period 1982 to 2015, multiple regression using the ordinary least squares method was applied to test the specified models. Preliminary data analysis was performed using trend analysis, descriptive statistics and Pearson bivariate correlation analysis. The study demonstrated that the relationship between capital structure and bank profitability was positive and statistically significant at a 95% confidence level when using only equity. However, inclusion of debt in the capital structure showed that capital structure, proxied by the debt-to-equity ratio, resulted in a negative relationship between capital structure and bank profitability, albeit statistically insignificant. It was concluded that the Land Bank requires an injection of equity to improve its performance. Alternative low-cost sources of funding to debt should be considered. The results of the study have policy implications for the Land Bank, regulators and potential investors. / Injongo yalolu cwaningo kwabe kuwukucubungula nokuthola umthelela wesimozimali sebhizinisi ekungeneni kwenzuzo eBhange Lokuthuthukiswa Komhlaba Nezolimo laseNingizimu Afrika (iBhange Lomhlaba). Kokubili, imibhalo yethiyori kanye nemibhalo esuselwe emaqinisweni abonakalayo naphathekayo, yabuyekezwa ukuze ihole futhi ilawule uphenyo olugxile emaqinisweni abonakalayo naphathekayo oluqondene nalolu cwaningo. Amathiyori ayisisekelo salolu cwaningo, ikakhulukazi, kwaba yi-financial intermediation, credit creation kanye ne-fractional reserve. Lawo mathiyori esimozimali sebhizinisi acutshungulwa abandakanya i-pecking order theory, trade-off theory kanye ne-Modigliani-Miller leverage irrelevance theory. Emibhalweni eyacutshungulwa, kwabonakala ukuthi izinkampani ezinenzuzo zincamela ukusebenzisa izimali zangaphakathi kunokusebenzisa isikweletu noma izabelokulingana (equity). Ngenhloso yokuhlola ihayiphothesisi ethuliwe yokuthi abukho ubudlelwano phakathi kwesimozimali sebhizinisi kanye nokungena kwenzuzo ebhange, kwasetshenziswa idizayini yocwaningo olukhwantithethivu ehambisana nendlela yokusebenzisa ucwaningo lwesigameko egxile ekuhlaziyweni kweBhange Lomhlaba. Ngokusebenzisa i-time series data yesikhathi esisukela kowe-1982 kuyofinyelela kowezi-2015, kwalandelwa i-multiple regression ngokusebenzisa i-ordinary least squares method ukuhlola amamodeli achaziwe. Uhlaziyo lwedatha olwandulelayo lwenziwa ngokusebenzisa uhlaziyo lwezimonkambiso (trend analysis), izibalomanani ezichazayo (descriptive statistics) kanye ne-Pearson bivariate correlation analysis. Ucwaningo lwabonisa ukuthi bukhona ubudlelwano obuphawulekayo phakathi kwesimozimali sebhizinisi kanye nokungena kwenzuzo ebhange futhi idatha yabonisa ukuthembakala okusezingeni elingama-95% uma kusetshenziswa izabelokulingana kuphela. Kodwa-ke ukufakwa kwesikweletu kwisimozimali sebhizinisi kwabonisa ukuthi isimozimali sebhizinisi, ngokusekelwa yizinga-silinganiso phakathi kwesikweletu nezabelokulinganisa, kwaholela ekutheni bungabi khona ubudlelwano obuphawulekayo phakathi kwesimozimali sebhizinisi kanye nokungena kwenzuzo ebhange, nakuba idatha mayelana nalokhu yabonisa ukungathembakali okuthile. Kwafinyelelwa esiphethweni sokuthi iBhange Lomhlaba lidinga ukuthi kufakwe izabelokulingana ngenhloso yokwenza ngcono ukusebenza kwalo. Kumele kwenziwe imizamo yokuthola eminye imithombo yezimali ehlukile futhi engambi eqolo. Imiphumela yocwaningo inemithelela ethile ephathelene nezinqubomgomo eqondene neBhange Lomhlaba, abalawuli kanye nalabo okungenzeka babe nesifiso sokutshala izimali. / Morero wa thutelo ye e be e le go laetša khuetšo ya matlotlo a kgwebo go bokgoni bja go hwetša dipoelo bja Panka ya Tlhabollo ya Naga le tša Temo ya Afrika Borwa (Land Bank). Dingwalo tša ditlhalošo tša diteori le tšeo dithutelo tša peleng di di hweditšeng di sekasekilwe go fa tlhahlo go dipoelo tša dinyakišišo tšeo di dirilwego peleng tša thutelo ye. Gabotsebotse, diteori tša mokgwa wa dipanka wa go tšea tšhelete ye e bolokilwego tša e adimiša, mokgwa wa dipanka wa go hlola dikadimo ka bontši le tsheketšo ya palophatlo ya tšhelete di bopile motheo wa thutelo ye. Diteori tša matlotlo a kgwebo tšeo di lekotšwego di akareditše teori ya mokgwa wa go kgetha methopo ya kadimo ya ditšhelete, teori ya go lekanyetša ditheko le ditefelokholego le teori ya Modigliani-Miller ya go re mokgwa wa go diriša tšhelete ye e adimilwego go bona dipoelo ga o ame boleng bja khamphani. Ka go dingwalo, go lemogilwe gore dikhamphani tše di ka hwetšago dipoelo di kgetha go diriša matlole a ka gare go ena le dikoloto goba bokaalo bjo bo šalago ka morago ga go ntšha dikoloto Go leka kakanyo ye e filwego ya gore ga go na tswalano gare ga matlotlo a kgwebo le bokgoni bja panka bja go hwetša dipoelo, tlhako ya nyakišišo ya go hwetša dikarabo go batho ka bontši ka mokgwatebelelo wa nyakišišo ye e dirilwego ka ga tiragalo e dirišitšwe, ka Land Bank bjalo ka yuniti ya tshekatsheko. Ka go diriša datha go ya ka tatelano ye e itšeng ya nako ya paka ya 1982 go iša go 2015, tlhahlobo ya tswalano gare ga mabaka a mabedi goba go feta ka go diriša mokgwa wa go fokotša palo ya disekwere e dirišitšwe go leka mehlala ye e šupilwego. Tshekatsheko ya datha ya mathomo e phethagaditšwe ka go diriša tshekatsheko ya taolelopele ya seo se tla diregago ka ditšhelete, mokgwa wa go sekaseka dipalopalo le tshekatsheko ya Pearson ya dipalo tše pedi go bona tswalano ya tšona. Thutelo e laeditše gore tswalano gare ga matlotlo a kgwebo le bokgoni bja panka go hwetša dipoelo go bile le ditlamorago tše botse le dipoelo tše di ka bago nnete ka kemo ya kgonthišo ya 95% ge go dirišwa fela bokaalo bjo bo šalago ka morago ga go ntšha dikoloto. Le ge go le bjalo, kakaretšo ya sekoloto ka go matlotlo a kgwebo go bontšhitše gore matlotlo a kgwebo, ao a laeditšwego ka tekanyo ya palomoka ya dikoloto go bokaalo bjo bo šalago ka morago ga go ntšha dikoloto, e hlotše tswalano ye e sa letelwago gare ga matlotlo a kgwebo le bokgoni bja panka go hwetša dipoelo, le ge e ka ba dipoelo tše di ka bago nnete. Go phethilwe ka go re Land Bank e nyaka koketšo ya bokaalo bjo bo šalago ka morago ga go ntšha dikoloto go kaonafatša tiro ye e swanetšwego go dirwa. Methopo ye mengwe ya tswala ya fase go dikoloto e swanetšwe go lebelelwa. Dipoelo tša thutelo di na le ditlamorago tša Molaotshepetšo wa Land Bank, balaodi le babeeletši ba ka moso. / Finance, Risk Management and Banking / M. Com. (Finance)