Since 1993, the Private Finance Initiative (PFI) has been the dominant form of large-scale infrastructure procurement used by National Health Service (NHS) organisations in the United Kingdom. As of April 2011, 123 PFI projects for new hospital facilities had been agreed between NHS organisations and private sector consortia, representing privately financed investment of £15.9 billion (in 2010 prices), and a projected long-term cost to the NHS of £70.5 billion. Eight additional hospital PFI schemes were being procured or prepared for tender as of April 2011, with an estimated capital investment value of £2 billion. Despite the financial significance of PFI projects to the NHS, the literature has not assessed whether, or the extent to which, the returns expected by investors are excessive. This gap in the evidence base is highly problematic. The presence of excess returns to investors will have an impact on the cost efficiency and affordability of PFI projects, and consequently the financial sustainability of the NHS organisations that pay for them. This thesis evaluates the returns that investors in NHS-commissioned PFI projects expect to earn with reference to the scale of risk being borne by these investors, and explores the sources of the identified excess via an examination of the structure and competitiveness of the PFI financing markets. The study therefore comprises two substantial empirical components. The first draws on the financial models of 11 NHS PFI projects to describe and evaluate the return to investors. Cost of capital benchmarks, constructed on the basis of the Capital Asset Pricing Model, are used as comparators to assess the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) for the 11 projects, and as discount rates to calculate Benefit-Cost Ratios. Both measures agree on the presence of significant excess returns for investors on each project – with large “spreads” between the IRRs and the corresponding cost of capital benchmarks, and high Benefit-Cost Ratio scores. The second empirical component provides an analysis of the structure and competitiveness of the market for private finance. Two indicators of this market’s structure – concentration and entry/exit rates – in addition to the dynamics of the procurement process are the focus of measurement and evaluation. It is demonstrated that: (a) the market for private finance in this sector is an oligopoly, (b) market share is highly concentrated when assessed against UK regulatory standards, and (c) churn and market penetration rates are extremely low. Constraints on the competitiveness of the market are identified as: (i) the low number of bidders; and (ii) the extensive period of non-competitive bidding in the final phase of the procurement process, in which the output specifications of projects are materially altered. The thesis concludes that recent reforms to the procurement process have been ineffective, and the problems underpinning a lack of competitive pressure in procurement may be insuperable, given the inherent complexity of this form of investment and the need to secure external financing. For the NHS, this source of cost inefficiency implies substantial opportunity costs (i.e. foregone opportunities for additional capital investment) and excess costs (i.e. a higher than necessary burden on the revenue budget). A stronger regulatory regime, incorporating regulation of the profitability of PFI projects for investors, is required to minimise the threat posed by this policy to the financial sustainability of the NHS.

The objective of this thesis is to develop a decision support tool to assess the feasibility of a hydro electrical power plant (HEPP) investment option by estimating its profitability under various scenarios. The decision support tool may help the decision makers to understand critical parameters that affect the internal rate of return (IRR) of a HEPP investment, create realistic scenarios by assigning different values to these parameters and monitor profitability under various scenarios. The information and the assumptions to construct the proposed decision support tool have been collected by conducting interviews with experts and its reliability has been tested by a real case study.

<p>In much of the recent times the practitioner’s fraternity has been focused towards making investment decisions, based on traditional financial evaluation techniques ranging from Net present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Pay Back Period, Profitability Index. Although these techniques have performed satisfactorily and have provided practitioners’ insights about how to value investments and thereby providing them a holistic view of the project and making informed decisions. However, these traditional techniques have focused more on quantifying the risk assessment done at the beginning of the project, by taking into consideration an optimal discount rate based on the firm’s overall cost of capital, and the additional risk associated with the given project. Nevertheless, these traditional Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) techniques, fails to take into account the value of managerial flexibility in business environments associated with a high degree of uncertainty, thereby not encapsulating the value of different options which are embedded within the project, that managers possess and the value of new information during the project lifecycle. In order to value these options, Real Options Valuation technique has been proposed, which predominantly traces its origin from valuing financial options. Though various academicians have supported this technique and the potential benefits it offers to organizations while making investment decisions, it still rests on a number of assumptions, which needs to be validated across different businesses. Therefore, this study focuses on understanding the obstacles involved with the implementation of Real Options Valuation technique, based on the three roadblocks identified by Lander and Pinches (1998).</p><p>A qualitative study using semi-structured interviews was conducted within a given case company X in Sweden. Wherein based on the existing financial evaluation technique that company X uses while making investment decisions are analyzed. Based on the responses provided by the company X officials, the study revealed that company X employs traditional financial evaluation techniques, since they are been widely accepted across a wide range of industries, and also decision makers, and shareholders tend to prefer a probabilistic risk assessment at the beginning of the project, however company X do acknowledge the potential benefits offered by Real Options Valuation technique, but they are not been implemented, because of its ignorance among the key decision makers, coupled with complex mathematical calculations and various assumptions that needs to be incorporated while using Real Options approach for valuing investments, which makes it difficult in the context of given company X for using Real Options approach for valuing investments.</p>

In much of the recent times the practitioner’s fraternity has been focused towards making investment decisions, based on traditional financial evaluation techniques ranging from Net present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Pay Back Period, Profitability Index. Although these techniques have performed satisfactorily and have provided practitioners’ insights about how to value investments and thereby providing them a holistic view of the project and making informed decisions. However, these traditional techniques have focused more on quantifying the risk assessment done at the beginning of the project, by taking into consideration an optimal discount rate based on the firm’s overall cost of capital, and the additional risk associated with the given project. Nevertheless, these traditional Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) techniques, fails to take into account the value of managerial flexibility in business environments associated with a high degree of uncertainty, thereby not encapsulating the value of different options which are embedded within the project, that managers possess and the value of new information during the project lifecycle. In order to value these options, Real Options Valuation technique has been proposed, which predominantly traces its origin from valuing financial options. Though various academicians have supported this technique and the potential benefits it offers to organizations while making investment decisions, it still rests on a number of assumptions, which needs to be validated across different businesses. Therefore, this study focuses on understanding the obstacles involved with the implementation of Real Options Valuation technique, based on the three roadblocks identified by Lander and Pinches (1998). A qualitative study using semi-structured interviews was conducted within a given case company X in Sweden. Wherein based on the existing financial evaluation technique that company X uses while making investment decisions are analyzed. Based on the responses provided by the company X officials, the study revealed that company X employs traditional financial evaluation techniques, since they are been widely accepted across a wide range of industries, and also decision makers, and shareholders tend to prefer a probabilistic risk assessment at the beginning of the project, however company X do acknowledge the potential benefits offered by Real Options Valuation technique, but they are not been implemented, because of its ignorance among the key decision makers, coupled with complex mathematical calculations and various assumptions that needs to be incorporated while using Real Options approach for valuing investments, which makes it difficult in the context of given company X for using Real Options approach for valuing investments.

Background and problem: Since the new law took place in 1999, it has been illegal towash a car with substances that can damage the environment on a paved street or on a driveway through a garage. This has conveyed to a new industry where more and more self-service car wash facility have opened around the country. Vetlanda Vägkrog AB has since 2012 been planning to install manual self-service car wash facility at the back of their restaurant business. The authors mission was to make an analysis in order to examine whether an investment of carwashes are lucrative enough for Vetlanda Vägkrog AB. Aim: The study's main objective was to analyze the profitability of an investment in a self-service car wash facility at Vetlanda Vägkrog AB, based on given data. The authors sub-aim was to clarify which factors in general that had played the greatest part in the establishment of a self-service car wash facility. Method: The authors have used an abductive approach in order to fulfill the aim of the study. Furthermore, have the authors used semi-structured interviews in order to gather all empirical data. The interviews were performed on the suppliers, municipal employees and the two owners of Vetlanda Vägkrog AB. The collected data is then explained using theory and henceforth meet the purpose. Conclusion: The results of this study shows that the investment of a self-service car wash facility based on Vetlanda Vägkrog AB conditions is economically efficient and profitable. Net present value method, Pay back and internal rate of return (IRR) is the following methods that the authors consistently have used in order to solve this task. An analysis of three different outcomes were made on the variables that might influence the results, for instance volume and periodic payments has been done in order to get an idea of how sensitive the estimate was. / Bakgrund och problem: Efter den nya lagen som trädde fram 1999 förbjuds tvätt avbilen med ämnen som skadar miljön på en asfalterad gata eller garageuppfart. Detta har medfört till en ny bransch då allt flera självtvätthallar har öppnats runt om i landet. Vetlanda Vägkrog AB har sedan 2012 haft planer på att installera manuella tvätthallar på baksidan av restaurangverksamheten. Vårt uppdrag var att göra en analys där vi granskade om en investering av biltvättar var lukrativt för Vetlanda Vägkrog AB. Syfte: Studiens huvudsyfte var att analysera lönsamheten för en investering i en biltvätthall åt Vetlanda Vägkrog AB, utifrån given data. Delsyftet blev att belysa vilka generella faktorer som hade spelat störst roll vid ett upprättande av en självtvätthall. Metod: För att uppfylla syftet med studien har vi utgått från en abduktiv metod. Vihar genom semistrukturerade intervjuer samlat empiri från leverantörer, kommunalanställda och två av delägarna för Vetlanda Vägkrog AB. Det materialet förklaras sedan med hjälp av teori för att slutligen uppfylla syftet. Slutsats: Resultatet av vår undersökning visar att investering av en självtvätthallutifrån Vetlanda Vägkrog AB förutsättningar är ekonomiskt effektiv och lönsamt. För att lösa uppgiften användes följande metoder payback-metoden, nuvärdemetoden och internräntemetoden.En analys med tre olika utfall gjordes på de variabler som kunde tänkas påverka resultatet, exempelvis volym och särutbetalningar har gjorts för att få en uppfattning påhur känslig kalkylen var. Samtliga utfall påvisade positivt resultat.

Kiribati, a small and low lying island country located on the equator, is vulnerable to impact of Global Warming. In response, Kiribati¡¦s Government continues and remains firm to fight the increase of pollution gases. Rather than just fighting using words, Kiribati seriously takes into consideration issues which promote the use of clean energy in all aspects. .This thesis emphasizes the use of large scale photovoltaic (PV) installation as a clean energy source that may help contribute in the total energy demand for this island. Here, a large photovoltaic generation system as a Distribution Generation (DG) to feed main utility network (i.e. PUB) on the island, assumed to be constructed in the National Main Stadium (NMS) at Betio Town as the DG Interconnection site, is analyzed. This PVGS has been investigated from two different perspectives: 1) Independent Power Producer (IPP) point of view, which is the design of the selling price of PV power generation and 2) Utility point of view, which is the design of saving costs incurred from PVGS contribution. PV power generation is simulated according to the hourly solar irradiation and temperature provided by the Weather Office in Kiribati. The cash flow of annual power generation, the operation and maintenance costs and the capital investment cost of the PVGS are then used to derive the payback time (PBT) and the internal rate of return (IRR) for the PVGS under different selling price of PV power generation. The voltage variation and the system losses of the distribution feeder, which serves the National Stadium, are also evaluated by executing the load flow analysis for the impact analysis of the PVGS. Results indicate that the reduction of voltage variation and system¡¦s losses can be obtained with the PVGS installed to provide the dispersed generation for the local loads. However, the PVGS penetration is limited due to the violation of voltage variation introduced by the large intermittent PV power generation. The selling price of PV generation has to be designed according to the conditions of solar irradiation and temperature so that sufficient incentives can be provided.

近幾年再生能源蓬勃發展，全球新增的太陽能發電裝置量也持續上升，擁有高太陽能技術的台灣，更是在太陽能電池上不停成長及擴張，使台灣在太陽能產業有高度前景。但由於太陽能成本高且產業鏈冗長，許多太陽能源公司紛紛想售出發電廠或尋求投資者。另一方面，國內保險業受到市場趨於飽和及利率偏低等因素影響，獲利難以成長，保險業的另一部份獲利來自於投資，穩定的投資獲利讓保險業者可以脫離低利率的險境，但由於台灣法令對保險業者的投資限制，使保險業者欠缺投資管道。基於營運中太陽能電廠需要資金，而保險業者需要新投資項目的情況下，如何讓保險業者更明白太陽能產業之營運方式及潛在風險，給予保險業者更明確的方向做為評估模式，將是本研究之重點。 投資績效的準確度有賴於評估模式的準確性，而評估模式的準確性則取決於影響因子之準確性。故要算出較為準確的投資績效，理解與抓出適當之影響因子為本研究的研究基礎。最後，本研究將太陽能電廠之營運風險評估方式分為「營收面」與「成本面」兩個面向，「營收面」中包含環境因素、系統因素與太陽光電躉購費率三大類的影響因子；「成本面」則包含投資成本、租金成本、維修與管理成本與清潔成本四類影響因子。由以上影響因子來評估一間營運中太陽能發電廠的價值，並以20年來計算內部投資報酬率(IRR)作為評判基準。 / Due to the rapidly growth in renewable energy nowadays, the quantity of solar power systems rises sustaining. Taiwan, which has high solar technology, is still expending its capability on solar power systems. It makes Taiwan have a bright prospect of solar industries. However, the high cost and lengthy industrial chain of solar industries let solar power companies try to sell out their power systems or find investments. On the other side, based on the domestic saturated market and low interest rates, insurance industries in Taiwan are hardly to earn profit on their operation. Another way for insurance companies to obtain profit is investment. Therefore, a stable investing profit makes insurance companies out of the low-rate situation. But due to the investment restriction in Taiwanese laws, insurance companies are always lack of investment projects. Based on the short of capital funds in solar power system and the lack of investment projects in insurance companies, how to let insurance companies know more on solar industries and their potential risks, and how to assessment solar power system will be the key point in this paper. The accuracy of investment performance depends on accuracy of assessment model, and the accuracy of assessment model hinges on accuracy of impact factors. Therefore, in order to find an accurate investment performance, to realize and choose the appropriate impact factors will be the key process in this paper. Finally, to assess operational solar power station, this paper divided all the impact factors into two main categories: revenue and expense. Revenue includes 3 impact factors: environment factors, systems factors and feed-in tariff. Expense includes 4 impact factors: initial investment cost, rent expense, repair and managing cost and cleaning cost. According to these impact factors, we can assess the value of operational solar power station and evaluate internal rate of return (IRR) in 20 years.

Energy communities are formed to create integrated regional energy market in EU and non- EU neighboring countries. It attracts investors in generation and energy networks as it comes up with new stable regulations, so that it will ensure the supply is stable and continuous. Five EU countries (Germany, Italy, Sweden, Greece, Austria) with different policies are selected and simulations are done. Economic analysis for the 5 countries is done based on simulation results. The selected 5 EU countries shows a good economic result; therefore, it can be recommended to implement energy communities and cities by developing the directives. By transposition of policies of the energy community and implementing more subsidies or incentive will make a better contribution for the citizen partnership for creating CEC.

The design of hydropower projects requires a comprehensive planning process in order to achieve the objective to maximise exploitation of the existing hydropower potential as well as future revenues of the plant. For this purpose and to satisfy approval requirements for a complex hydropower development, it is imperative at planning stage, that the conceptual development contemplates a wide range of influencing design factors and ensures appropriate consideration of all related aspects. Since the majority of technical and economical parameters that are required for detailed and final design cannot be precisely determined at early planning stages, crucial design parameters such as design discharge and hydraulic head have to be examined through an extensive optimisation process. One disadvantage inherent to commonly used deterministic analysis is the lack of objectivity for the selection of input parameters. Moreover, it cannot be ensured that the entire existing parameter ranges and all possible parameter combinations are covered. Probabilistic methods utilise discrete probability distributions or parameter input ranges to cover the entire range of uncertainties resulting from an information deficit during the planning phase and integrate them into the optimisation by means of an alternative calculation method. The investigated method assists with the mathematical assessment and integration of uncertainties into the rational economic appraisal of complex infrastructure projects. The assessment includes an exemplary verification to what extent the Random Set Theory can be utilised for the determination of input parameters that are relevant for the optimisation of hydropower projects and evaluates possible improvements with respect to accuracy and suitability of the calculated results. / Die Auslegung von Wasserkraftanlagen stellt einen komplexen Planungsablauf dar, mit dem Ziel das vorhandene Wasserkraftpotential möglichst vollständig zu nutzen und künftige, wirtschaftliche Erträge der Kraftanlage zu maximieren. Um dies zu erreichen und gleichzeitig die Genehmigungsfähigkeit eines komplexen Wasserkraftprojektes zu gewährleisten, besteht hierbei die zwingende Notwendigkeit eine Vielzahl für die Konzepterstellung relevanter Einflussfaktoren zu erfassen und in der Projektplanungsphase hinreichend zu berücksichtigen. In frühen Planungsstadien kann ein Großteil der für die Detailplanung entscheidenden, technischen und wirtschaftlichen Parameter meist nicht exakt bestimmt werden, wodurch maßgebende Designparameter der Wasserkraftanlage, wie Durchfluss und Fallhöhe, einen umfangreichen Optimierungsprozess durchlaufen müssen. Ein Nachteil gebräuchlicher, deterministischer Berechnungsansätze besteht in der zumeist unzureichenden Objektivität bei der Bestimmung der Eingangsparameter, sowie der Tatsache, dass die Erfassung der Parameter in ihrer gesamten Streubreite und sämtlichen, maßgeblichen Parameterkombinationen nicht sichergestellt werden kann. Probabilistische Verfahren verwenden Eingangsparameter in ihrer statistischen Verteilung bzw. in Form von Bandbreiten, mit dem Ziel, Unsicherheiten, die sich aus dem in der Planungsphase unausweichlichen Informationsdefizit ergeben, durch Anwendung einer alternativen Berechnungsmethode mathematisch zu erfassen und in die Berechnung einzubeziehen. Die untersuchte Vorgehensweise trägt dazu bei, aus einem Informationsdefizit resultierende Unschärfen bei der wirtschaftlichen Beurteilung komplexer Infrastrukturprojekte objektiv bzw. mathematisch zu erfassen und in den Planungsprozess einzubeziehen. Es erfolgt eine Beurteilung und beispielhafte Überprüfung, inwiefern die Random Set Methode bei Bestimmung der für den Optimierungsprozess von Wasserkraftanlagen relevanten Eingangsgrößen Anwendung finden kann und in wieweit sich hieraus Verbesserungen hinsichtlich Genauigkeit und Aussagekraft der Berechnungsergebnisse ergeben.

The design of hydropower projects requires a comprehensive planning process in order to achieve the objective to maximise exploitation of the existing hydropower potential as well as future revenues of the plant. For this purpose and to satisfy approval requirements for a complex hydropower development, it is imperative at planning stage, that the conceptual development contemplates a wide range of influencing design factors and ensures appropriate consideration of all related aspects. Since the majority of technical and economical parameters that are required for detailed and final design cannot be precisely determined at early planning stages, crucial design parameters such as design discharge and hydraulic head have to be examined through an extensive optimisation process. One disadvantage inherent to commonly used deterministic analysis is the lack of objectivity for the selection of input parameters. Moreover, it cannot be ensured that the entire existing parameter ranges and all possible parameter combinations are covered. Probabilistic methods utilise discrete probability distributions or parameter input ranges to cover the entire range of uncertainties resulting from an information deficit during the planning phase and integrate them into the optimisation by means of an alternative calculation method. The investigated method assists with the mathematical assessment and integration of uncertainties into the rational economic appraisal of complex infrastructure projects. The assessment includes an exemplary verification to what extent the Random Set Theory can be utilised for the determination of input parameters that are relevant for the optimisation of hydropower projects and evaluates possible improvements with respect to accuracy and suitability of the calculated results. / Die Auslegung von Wasserkraftanlagen stellt einen komplexen Planungsablauf dar, mit dem Ziel das vorhandene Wasserkraftpotential möglichst vollständig zu nutzen und künftige, wirtschaftliche Erträge der Kraftanlage zu maximieren. Um dies zu erreichen und gleichzeitig die Genehmigungsfähigkeit eines komplexen Wasserkraftprojektes zu gewährleisten, besteht hierbei die zwingende Notwendigkeit eine Vielzahl für die Konzepterstellung relevanter Einflussfaktoren zu erfassen und in der Projektplanungsphase hinreichend zu berücksichtigen. In frühen Planungsstadien kann ein Großteil der für die Detailplanung entscheidenden, technischen und wirtschaftlichen Parameter meist nicht exakt bestimmt werden, wodurch maßgebende Designparameter der Wasserkraftanlage, wie Durchfluss und Fallhöhe, einen umfangreichen Optimierungsprozess durchlaufen müssen. Ein Nachteil gebräuchlicher, deterministischer Berechnungsansätze besteht in der zumeist unzureichenden Objektivität bei der Bestimmung der Eingangsparameter, sowie der Tatsache, dass die Erfassung der Parameter in ihrer gesamten Streubreite und sämtlichen, maßgeblichen Parameterkombinationen nicht sichergestellt werden kann. Probabilistische Verfahren verwenden Eingangsparameter in ihrer statistischen Verteilung bzw. in Form von Bandbreiten, mit dem Ziel, Unsicherheiten, die sich aus dem in der Planungsphase unausweichlichen Informationsdefizit ergeben, durch Anwendung einer alternativen Berechnungsmethode mathematisch zu erfassen und in die Berechnung einzubeziehen. Die untersuchte Vorgehensweise trägt dazu bei, aus einem Informationsdefizit resultierende Unschärfen bei der wirtschaftlichen Beurteilung komplexer Infrastrukturprojekte objektiv bzw. mathematisch zu erfassen und in den Planungsprozess einzubeziehen. Es erfolgt eine Beurteilung und beispielhafte Überprüfung, inwiefern die Random Set Methode bei Bestimmung der für den Optimierungsprozess von Wasserkraftanlagen relevanten Eingangsgrößen Anwendung finden kann und in wieweit sich hieraus Verbesserungen hinsichtlich Genauigkeit und Aussagekraft der Berechnungsergebnisse ergeben.