The process of globalisation has had a large impact on the world economy over the past three decades. Economic globalisation has manifested itself in the increasing integration of goods and services through international trade and the integration of financial markets. As a consequence the existence of co-movements in economic variables of different countries has become more evident. The extent to which globalisation causes a country’s economy to move together with the rest of the world concerns policy-makers. When such co-movement is significant, the influence of policy-makers on their respective domestic economies is significantly reduced. South Africa re-entered the international economy in the early 1990s when the forces of globalisation, especially for developing countries, seemed to gain momentum. Empirical research such as Kabundi and Loots (2005) found strong evidence of international co-movement between the world business cycle and the South African business cycle, particularly following South Africa’s integration into the global economy. This study examines the relationship and interdependence between South Africa and four of its major developed trading partners. More particularly, the study examines the question of whether business cycles are transmitted from Germany, Japan, US and UK to South Africa, and/or from South Africa to Germany, Japan, the US and UK. The study employs structural vector autoregressive (SVARs) models to analyse monthly data from 1980:01–2008:04 on industrial production, producer prices, short-term interest rates and real effective exchange rates. The results show that South Africa benefits from economic growth in both the UK and US. They also indicate significant price transmission from Germany and Japan to South Africa, with transmission in the opposite direction being statistically insignificant. The impulse response graphs show that a positive one standard deviation shock to both German and Japanese producer prices has a negative impact on South African output (industrial production) growth. Furthermore, South African monetary policy is relatively unresponsive to international monetary policy stances. The findings of this study indicate that South African policymakers need to take into consideration economic performance of the country’s major trading partners, with particular emphasis on the UK and US economies.

O Programa de Pós-Graduação em Relações Internacionais é instituído em parceria com a Unesp/Unicamp/PUC-SP, em projeto subsidiado pela CAPES, intitulado "Programa San Tiago Dantas" / Orientador: Sebastião Carlos Velasco e Cruz / Banca: Rafael Antônio Duarte Villa / Banca: Flávia de Campos Mello / Resumo: Este trabalho tem como objetivo central examinar e problematizar a reflexão sobre o relacionamento entre a Organização Mundial do Comércio e, seu principal arquiteto, os Estados Unidos, à luz de diferentes teorias das Relações Internacionais e de considerações em torno do debate doméstico sobre a OMC nesse país. Observamos a relação entre os EUA e a OMC tanto no que concerne o plano das negociações comerciais multilaterais, como também, no que se refere à dimensão do Órgão de Solução de Controvérsias, tentando estabelecer paralelos com as dificuldades de negociação no âmbito da Rodada Doha. Historicamente, os EUA dominaram os resultados das negociações comerciais multilaterais, prevalecendo na determinação do conteúdo das regras da OMC, assim como, na definição de suas principais características: uma ampla cobertura temática e a presença de um mecanismo judicial que está entre as formas mais avançadas de direito internacional da atualidade. Contudo, estudos indicam que, no plano das negociações comerciais, devido a alterações na economia mundial, a tradicional influência norte-americana foi sendo reduzida ao longo do tempo, apresentando implicações importantes para o processo de produção de regras da organização. Além disso, autores sugerem que a reforma do OSC melhorou o posicionamento das partes demandantes das disputas, mesmo quando essas partes estavam iniciando casos contra os EUA, restringindo assim a capacidade desse Estado de determinar os resultados das disputas e de descumprir seus compromissos internacionais no campo do comércio. Os interesses norte-americanos estão largamente refletidos na OMC e, embora esse seja o traço mais forte a definir o relacionamento entre os EUA e essa instituição, ele não é o único. A interação entre a OMC e os interesses dos EUA parece mais complexa do que alguns teóricos das relações internacionais argumentaram / Abstract: The main purpose of this work is to examine and discuss the reflection on the relationship between the World Trade Organization and, its principal architect, the United States, in light of different theories of International Relations and of considerations over the domestic debate on the WTO in this country. We observed the relationship between the U.S. and the WTO both in respect to the multilateral trade negotiations and with regard to the Dispute Settlement Body, trying to draw parallels with the current difficulties in negotiating the Doha Round. Historically, the U.S. has dominated the results of multilateral trade negotiations, prevailed in the determination of the rules of the WTO and, consequently, in the definition of its main features: a broad coverage and the presence of a judicial mechanism that is among the most advanced forms of international law today. Nevertheless, concerning the multilateral trade negotiations, studies point out that, due to changes in the global economy, U.S.'s influence in this area has been reduced over time, with significant implications for the rule-making process of the organization. Besides that, some authors argue that the reform of the DSB has improved the positioning of plaintiffs in disputes, even when they were starting cases against the U.S. and thus restricted U.S.'s ability to determine the outcome of disputes and disregard its international commitments in the field of trade. U.S.'s interests are largely reflected in the WTO and, although this is the strongest characteristic applied in order to describe the relationship between the U.S. and this institution, this is not the only one. The interaction between the WTO and the U.S's interests may actually be more complex than some International Relations scholars have argued / Mestre

O objetivo primário desta tese é identificar como as empresas multinacionais (EMNs) agem como negociadoras nas relações econômicas internacionais (REI). A hipótese geral a ser verificada é de que as EMNs buscam influenciar os Estados e suas coalizões utilizando-se de seu poder estrutural e de seu poder brando, nacional e transnacionalmente, de modo a afetar os interesses dos Estados e de suas coalizões. A efetividade da defesa de seus interesses depende, basicamente, da confluência dos interesses dos Estados e das empresas e da vulnerabilidade dos Estados em relação às atividades das empresas bem como a capacidade relativa das coalizões que as empresas buscam influenciar. Dentro desse contexto, na parte I deste trabalho, proponho uma breve discussão sobre o papel das EMNs nas Relações Econômicas Internacionais contemporâneas, identificando quatro grandes cortes teóricos: Marxismo, incluindo vertentes neo-marxistas como a Teoria da Dependência e o Sistema Mundial Moderno; Neo-Realismo, incluindo a Teoria da Estabilidade Hegemônica, o Neoliberalismo, incluindo a Interdependência Complexa e; a visão delineada por Susan Strange. Como conclusão desta discussão, justifico o meu corte teórico fundamentalmente ligado à interdependência complexa e ao xadrez de três níveis de Nye (Neoliberalismo), pelo seu desenho teórico que permite ver a ação das EMNs como independente e não submissa à ação dos Estados, ao mesmo tempo que aceita a centralidade da ação dos Estados na regulação do sistema econômico internacional. Em seguida, reconheço a limitação do poder de influência das EMNs através de uma extensão do modelo Frieden-Rogowsky, onde proponho que; (a) os setores prejudicados pelo processo de internacionalização tendem, tanto em nível nacional quanto em nível transnacional, a se opor a ações políticas das EMNs e; (b) regimes autoritários tendem a ser menos vulneráveis em relação à ação política das EMNs. Finalmente, na Parte II, realizamos dois estudos de caso relativos ao nosso modelo de negociações de empresas EMNs no contexto da política internacional: as negociações sobre o estabelecimento de um regime de propriedade intelectual no contexto da Rodada Uruguai do GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade) e o Protocolo de Cartagena de Biosegurança , instrumento complementar à Convenção de Biodiversidade (CBD) que regulamenta os organismos geneticamente modificados (OGMs). Uma importante conclusão da tese é que a influência das EMNs nas negociações econômicas internacionais depende largamente das estruturas dos processos de negociação, onde fóruns multilaterais e multitemáticos tendem a favorecer a influência das EMNs em comparação a fóruns monotemáticos. Outra importante contribuição teórica foi explicar as circunstâncias em que as EMNs operam como negociadores das REI, através da influência, se utilizando de poder estrutural e brando, buscando formar coalizões transnacionais e buscando incentivar a formação de coalizões entre Estados que defendam os seus interesses em contextos intergovernamentais. Ou seja, este trabalho explica um pouco da dinâmica da relação do chamado terceiro xadrez (transnacioal) com o segundo xadrez (econômico) das relações internacionais. / The main objective of this thesis is to identify how the multinational companies (MNCs) act as negotiators in the international economic relations (IER). The main hypothesis is that the MNCs try to influence the States and their coalitions, nationally and transnationally, through its structural power as well as its soft power. The defense of their corporate interests depends on the confluence of their interests with those of the states as well as the state\'s vulnerabilities to the corporations activities. Moreover, the MNCs should be able to influence the strongest state\'s coalition in the multilateral process of negotiation. In the first part of this work I propose a brief discussion of the role of the MNCs in the contemporary IER through four theoretical cuts: Marxism, including neo-marxists theories such as the Dependency Theory and the Modern Wold System; Neorealism, including the Hegemonic Stability Theory; neoliberalism, including the Complex Interdependence and; the Susan Strange\'s approach. As a conclusion of this part I justify my theoretical preference related to the Complex Interdependence and the three level chessboard of Nye (Neoliberalism) since its allows us to understand the MNCs preferences as independent of those of the states. At the same time, these models recognize that states still play a central role in the regulation of the international economic system. I recognize the limitations of the MNCs influence power through an extension of the Frieden-Rogowsky model, where I propose that: (a) the sectors damaged by the process of internationalization tend, nationally and transnationally, to oppose to the political actions of the MNCs and; (b) authoritarian regimes tend to be less vulnerable to the political actions of the MNCs. The part II of the thesis shows the role of MNCs in two case studies: the negotiations that led to the creation of an international regime of intellectual property in the Uruguay Round of GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade) and the negotiations of the Cartagena Protocol of Biosafety, a complementary instrument of the Biodiversity Convention (CBD), which regulates the genetically modified organisms (GMOs). An important conclusion of this thesis is that influence of the MNCs depends on the structure of the negotiation process. Multilateral and multi-issues processes tend to increase their influence in comparison to single-issue negotiations. Another important theoretical contribution was to explain under which circumstances the MNCs are able to act as negotiators in the IRE, through influence, utilizing its structural and soft powers, by forming transnational coalitions and by helping the formation of state\'s coalitions willing to defend their interests in intergovernamental negotiation processes. Therefore, this work partially explains the relationship between the third chessboard (transnational) and the second chessboard (economics) of international relations.

The international linkages of stock markets have important implications for cost of capital and portfolio diversification. Recent trends in globalization, financial liberalization and financial innovation raises questions with regard to whether African stock markets are being integrated into world equity markets. This study examines the extent to which the South African (SA) equity market is integrated into the world equity markets using daily data for the period 1995-2007. The study is divided into three main parts, each looking at the different ways in which integration can be considered. The first investigates whether there is long run comovement between the SA and the major global equity markets. Both bivariate and multivariate Johansen (1988) and Johansen and Juselius (1990) cointegration approaches were utilised. Vector Error Correction Models (VECMs) are then estimated for portfolios which show evidence of cointegration. The second part analyses returns linkages using the Vector Autoregressive (VAR), block exogeneity, impulse response and variance decomposition. The third part examines the behaviour of volatility and volatility linkages among the stock markets. Firstly volatility is analysed using the GARCH, EGARCH and GJR GARCH. Simultaneously, the hypothesis that investors receive a premium for investing in more risky stock markets is explored using the GARCH-in mean. The long term trend of volatility is also examined. Volatility linkages are then analysed using the VAR, block exogeneity, impulse response and variance decomposition. The first part established that no bivariate cointegration exists between the SA and any of the stock markets being studied, implying that pairwise portfolio diversification is potentially worthwhile for SA portfolio managers. However, multivariate cointegration exists for some portfolios, with the US, UK, Germany and SA showing evidence of error correction for some of these portfolios. Findings on return linkages is that there are significant returns linkages among the markets, with the US and SA being the most exogenous and most endogenous respectively. Findings regarding volatility are that the volatility in all the markets is inherently asymmetric and that except for the US there is no risk premium in any of the markets. The long term trend of volatility in all the stock markets was found to be relatively stable. The final finding was that significant volatility linkages exist among the markets, with the US being the most exogenous and SA and China showing evidence of bidirectional linkages. Overall, except for volatility linkages, the integration of SA into the global equity markets is still quite low. Thus, both SA and international investors can capitalise on this portfolio diversification potential. On the other hand, policy makers should capitalise on this and make policies that will attract the much needed foreign investors.

The identification of financial stress, and an understanding of financial contagion on a global scale, is of critical importance to a South African economy that is becoming increasingly integrated into the global economy. The last decade has been characterised by periods of high economic growth, but also periods of significant financial instability culminating in global economic crises. This study examines the extent to which the South African financial system is exposed to distress abroad by identifying and measuring the co-movement of financial stress originating from within and outside South Africa. The study can be separated into two sections: the identification of financial stress and the measurement of financial contagion. Using monthly data for the period 2000 to 2012, three indices were constructed for the emerging markets, advanced economies and South Africa using varianceequal weighting. The indices were tested for contagion using the Johansen and Jesulius (1990) multivariate cointegration approach supplemented with basic OLS architecture and Impulse Response analysis. The results indicate the three constructed indices were highly accurate at identifying the intensity and timing of financial stress over the three regions respectively. It was found that the South African financial sector is highly susceptible to financial stress originating from advanced economies. The results obtained for financial stress emanating from emerging markets were not as conclusive and found to be insignificant. Overall, it is clear that the methods employed to identify financial stress are highly accurate and that South Africa is highly susceptible to financial stress originating from abroad. It is clear that advanced economies have a greater ability to affect financial stress in South Africa via contagion. It must be noted that this does not conclude that South Africa is not affected by emerging market crises, but that these crises tend to affect South Africa through advanced economy channels as defined within this thesis.

The international financial environment has become riskier due to the recent developments in product offerings and failure of regulation to keep abreast with these changes. The Global Financial Crisis exposed inadequacies of regulation, thus consensus on the need for comprehensive and uniform regulation was made by G-20 member states. Imposing exchange trading, clearing, reporting and capital requirements on the derivatives market are some of the ways of dealing with the problems caused by lax regulatory oversight. In this study, through the comparative analysis of derivatives regulation in South Africa, Brazil, India and Turkey, it was established that emerging countries are taking active steps to implement the G-20 agreement. Uniformity in the core rules was noted, with differences in the supportive legislation. Country specific rules which support the macroeconomic factors that are faced by these countries and the infrastructure available for regulatory execution are used amongst countries. The study concluded that current regulation in emerging countries is accommodative and regulatory differences are in line with economic factors in each country.

Orientador: Daniela Magalhães Prates / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-24T09:11:23Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Lima_HumbertoeSilvaRibeirode_D.pdf: 1802532 bytes, checksum: 2ae86df8a28af60e2ca89a62fce41bc1 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013 / Resumo: A dependência econômica é um conceito desenvolvido com a contribuição de vários autores, sobretudo entre os anos 1940 e 1970. Esse conceito tem como mérito chamar a atenção para a relação centro-periferia, isto é, a relação hierárquica presente na Economia Internacional. Entretanto, a partir dos anos 1980, a utilização da abordagem da dependência perde força tanto na ciência quanto na política econômica. A hipótese defendida nesta Tese é que esse declínio deve-se não à perda de validade das preocupações e diagnósticos dessa abordagem mas sim à mudança da forma hegemônica de valorização do capital. Defende-se, portanto, que, há cerca de 30 anos, o capitalismo entra em uma nova etapa, caracterizada pela posição central ocupada pelo capital financeiro, o que condiciona mudanças fundamentais no comportamento e motivações dos agentes econômicos. Assim, sustenta-se que o núcleo da abordagem centro-periferia mantém-se válido, sendo necessário porém concatenar esse núcleo geral com a forma específica da dependência sob égide do capitalismo liderado pelas finanças. Esta Tese inova ao fazer esse relacionamento entre a questão centro-periferia e a dinâmica do capitalismo financeirizado, tendo como base dessa relação a hierarquia monetária, construída a partir de uma perspectiva marxista, e a ascensão da esfera financeira na determinação da moderna dependência / Abstract: The economic dependency is a concept developed by many authors, mainly between 1940 and 1970. This concept has as merit to appoint the core-periphery relation, namely, the hierarchy relation present at International Economy. However, from 1980s, the use of dependency approach has decreased in economic science and policy. The hypothesis defended in this Thesis is that this disuse is caused not by the losing validity of this approach cautions and diagnostics but by the change in the hegemonic form of capital valorization. So, it argues that, about 30 years ago, the capitalism has entered in a new phase, which is characterized by the central position occupied by financial capital, that conducts fundamental changes in the economic agents behaviors and motivations. Therefore, it claims that the heart of core-periphery approach remains valid but it needs connecting these general concepts with the specific form of the dependency under the egis of finance-led capitalism. This Thesis innovates by doing this relation between the core-periphery approach and the financialized capitalism dynamics using the monetary hierarchy concept, developed from a Marxist view, and the rise of finance sphere as the basis in the determination of modern dependency / Doutorado / Politica Economica / Doutor em Ciências Econômicas

Orientador: Eduardo Barros Mariutti / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-27T02:24:23Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Conti_ThomasVictor_M.pdf: 3220011 bytes, checksum: b64df3664aed31cb23272e914111f445 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015 / Resumo: O tema desta pesquisa é uma análise mais profunda das conexões entre as estruturas econômicas da organização produtiva e suas contrapartidas no jogo político dos Estados modernos tal como se processaram no Longo Século XIX, com o objetivo de avançar na compreensão do fenômeno do imperialismo moderno. Partimos da discussão sobre os fundamentos da Hegemonia Britânica, argumentando como desde o seu início ela era baseada em sua preponderância no comércio internacional, o que atrelou seu posterior desenvolvimento econômico industrial às questões do setor de serviços, dos transportes e do poder naval. Contudo, ao dar vazão ao investimento ferroviário, a industrialização possibilitou a expansão por terra do espaço econômico a partir do qual novas indústrias poderiam surgir. Países como os Estados Unidos e a Alemanha tomariam as conexões ferroviárias como ponto de partida para articular economias nacionais em escalas maiores de produção, distribuição, capacidades organizacionais e científicas. Essa é a base econômica sobre a qual uma nova rivalidade política, fundada na simbiose entre o capital nacional e o Estado e crescentemente apoiada no nacionalismo, passaria a se expandir no final do século conforme inovações militares diminuíam as possibilidades de resistência. A concorrência entre capitais nacionais colocou em marcha um expansionismo político que dividiu o mundo em áreas de influência crescentemente hostis que, ao assumir uma forma bipolar, resultou na Grande Guerra / Abstract: The theme of this research is a deeper analysis of the connections between economic structures of productive organization and its counterparts in the political game of modern states as they developed in the Long Nineteenth Century, with the goal of advancing in the understanding of modern imperialism. Our discussion begins with the bases of Great-Britain Hegemony, where we argue how since its beginning it was based on its primacy in international commerce, which embedded its later economic-industrial development to the questions of the service sector, transportation and maritime power. However, by harnessing the railway investment, industrialization allowed a landed expansion of the economic space where new industries could emerge. Countries like the United States and Germany would take railways as a starting point to articulate national economies in larger scales of production, distribution and organization. There lies the economic root upon which a new political rivalry, based on the symbiosis between national capital and the state and supported by nationalism, would begin to expand by the end of the century as new military innovations diminished resistance possibilities. Competition between national capitals put forth a political expansionism that divided the world in areas of influence growingly hostile that, once in a bipolar form, resulted in the Great War / Mestrado / Historia Economica / Mestre em Desenvolvimento Econômico

Thesis (M. A. (International Politics)) -- University of Limpopo, 2020 / South Africa’s foreign policy towards the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region, particularly during Thabo Mbeki’s tenure, has received substantial scholarly attention. Similarly, South Africa’s domestic political arena has been a subject of significant scholarly inquiry during Jacob Zuma’s tenure. Understandably, when one considers the domestic scandals that clouded Zuma’s presidency, the foreign policy of the Zuma administration, specifically towards the SADC region, has received underwhelming scholarly attention. Therefore, the present study is a contribution to the limited available studies on the Zuma administration’s foreign policy towards the SADC region. Noting the importance of the DRC in SADC region international relations, the DRC is used as a case study. The DRC’s experience of a seemingly ceaseless or recurrent conflict makes it a suitable case for the assessment of the Zuma administration’s foreign policy. This is because it would be difficult for a South Africa that is largely viewed as the SADC region’s regional leader to remain indifferent while a fellow SADC member state experiences continuous instability. To achieve its objectives, the study employed document review as a data collection method. The study found that South Africa under Zuma prioritised economic diplomacy. As such, it actively participated in the neutralisation, through military means, of rebel groups in the DRC. It would not be farfetched to submit that this was an attempt to create an environment that is more conducive to economic activity in the DRC so as to improve economic relations between the two countries. Keywords: South Africa, SADC, Foreign Policy, Democratic Republic of Congo, Zuma, Afrocentricity, Southern Africa.

Thesis (M. A. (International Politics)) -- University of Limpopo, 2021 / The relations between France and South Africa dates to +-330 years ago but the year that France renounced its diplomatic collaboration with South Africa was in 1981. Then in 1994 following the new democratic dispensation in South Africa, France started normalising its diplomatic relations with the new government. By the end of 1994 South Africa had France as its 14th biggest trading partner with a total trade of R3712 millions. Moving from that, the central question grappled within this research is that is the relations between France and South Africa a win-win or win-lose one? This research argues that is it a win-lose as France is the one that continues to benefit more compared to South Africa on various partnership which will be discussed further in the research. With regards to the theoretical framework, Afrocentricity was deemed suited as it gives Africans the platform to view issues through African experiences and perspective. The latter should also be understood within the context that a lot of literature on the topic at hand has been written using Eurocentric perceptive thus this research utilised Afrocentricity. Methodologically, this research will be solely relaying on secondary materials such as journal articles, newspapers as well as policy briefs and reports.