This thesis examines the relationship of monetary policy and investment in a theoretical framework in which monetary and real economic forces are intrinsically interlinked. The full shift from a money, real dichotomy in historical economic thought to the notion of money being an essential determinant of economic outcomes is traced to the work of Keynes, partly in the Treatise (1930), but more completely in the General Theory (1936). The treatment of monetary forces in economic growth models is examined. It is found that the money, investment relationship, with close money, real interaction, is appropriately pursued in the approach to monetary theory adopted by those who could broadly be characterised as Post Keynesian. The operation of monetary forces through the banking system is examined using this theoretical backdrop. A symbolic model is developed of the influence channels implied by the theoretical analysis, using the South African monetary system as the specific focus. The symbolic model is expressed in a form which enables empirical examination. South African data are compiled and used to determine the nature and statistical significance of hypothesised relationships. The implications of the theoretical analysis and empirical examination are drawn out both for monetary theory within the Post Keynesian mould, and for the conduct of monetary policy, in South Africa in particular. / Economics / D. Litt. et Phil. (Economics)

This study investigates the association between traditional and alternative working capital measures and the returns of industrial firms listed on the Johannesburg Stock E"change. Twenty five variables for all industrial firms listed for the most recent 10 years were derived from standardised annual balance sheet data of the University of Pretoria's Bureau of Financial Analysis. Traditional liquidity ratios measuring working capital position, activity and leverage, and alternative liquidity measures, were calculated for each of the 135 participating firms for the 1 0 years. These working capital measures were tested for association with five return measures for every firm over the same period. This was done by means of a chi-square test for association, followed by stepwise multiple regression undertaken to quantify the underlying structural relationships between the return measures and the working capital measures. The results of the tests indicated that the traditional working capital leverage measures, in particular, total current liabilities divided by funds flow, and to a lesser e"tent, long-term loan capital divided by net working capital, displayed the greatest associations, and e"plained the majority of the variance in the return measures. At-test, undertaken to analyse the size effect on the working capital measures employed by the participating firms, compared firms according to total assets. The results revealed significant differences between the means of the top quartile of firms and the bottom quartile, for eight of the 13 working capital measures included in the study. A nonparametric test was applied to evaluate the sector effect on the working capital measures employed by the participating firms. The rank scores indicated significant differences in the means across the sectors for si" of the 13 working capital measures. A decrease in the working capital leverage measures of current liabilities divided by funds flow, and long-term loan capital divided by net working capital, should signal an increase in returns, and vice versa. It is recommended that financial managers consider these findings when forecasting firm returns. / Business Management / D. Com. (Business Management)

Various studies conclude that accelerated economic growth and development are necessary in South Africa to make a significant contribution towards reducing high levels of unemployment, inequality and poverty. Moreover, in theories of economic growth the export sector is frequently accorded a special role in encouraging faster economic growth, which is often supported by empirical evidence. Nonetheless, a question that remains unresolved is whether higher export growth leads to higher economic growth in South Africa and what particular role exports may play within the overall economic growth process of the country. This study applies Johansen’s cointegration procedure, impulse response functions, variance decomposition analysis and Granger causality tests to shed light on the channels through which export growth may impact South Africa’s economic growth rate. Quarterly time series data ranging from 1975q1 to 2012q4 is employed in the study’s empirical tests. The empirical results lend support to the idea that the role of exports in the economic growth process fundamentally lies in their ability to encourage investment and capital formation. While export growth supports higher economic growth in the short-run, it does not have the same effect in the long-run. Nonetheless, with export growth supporting faster capital formation in South Africa, and capital formation, in turn, significantly increasing economic growth in the long-run, the impetus to growth stemming from exports has been found to lie in the channel to capital formation. On the basis of the empirical results, not only are exports a critical requirement of higher investment, but they are also anticipated to play a prominent role in lifting the balance of payments constraint that would make investment-led growth possible in the first place. Overall, a strategy of export-led growth that does not explicitly emphasise the export-capital-growth connection is likely to fall short of reflecting the dynamics contained within the exports-growth relationship in South Africa.

In recent years, concern about food safety linked to health issues has seen a rise in private food safety standards in addition to the regulations set by the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) in collaboration with the World Health Organisation (WHO). These have presented challenges to producers and exporters of agricultural food products especially the producers of fresh fruits and vegetables. In spite of the food safety-linked challenges from the demand side, the vast range of business-environment forces pose equally formidable challenges that negatively impact on the exporting industries’ ability to maintain or improve their market shares and their ability to compete in world markets. The objective of this study was therefore to establish the competitiveness of the South African citrus industry in the international markets within this prevailing scenario. Due to the diversity of the definitions of competitiveness as a concept, this study formulated the following working definition: “the ability to create, deliver and maintain value and constant market share through strategic management of the industrial environment or competitiveness drivers”. This was based on the understanding that the international market shares of an industry are a function of forces in the business environment which range from intra-industry, external and national as well as the international elements. The unit of analysis were the citrus producers engaged in export of their products and the study made use of 151 responses by producers. The study adopted a five-step approach to the analysis of the performance of the South African citrus industry in the global markets, starting with the analysis of the Constant Market Share (CMS) of the South African citrus industry in various world markets, establishing the impact of the business environmental factors upon competitiveness, establishing the costs of compliance with private food safety standards, determining the non-price benefits of compliance with the standards, as well as highlighting the strategies for enhancing long-term competitiveness of the industry in the international markets. South Africa is one of the top three countries dominating the citrus fruit export market. Since its entry into the citrus fruit exports market in the 1900s, the industry has sustained its activity in the international market. The Constant Market Share Analysis shows that, amidst the challenges on the international market side, and the changes in the business environment, over much of which the industry has limited control and influence, the industry has maintained its competitive advantage in several markets. The CMS shows that South Africa’s lemons are competitive in America. Despite a negative trend, the South African grapefruit has been competitive in France, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands and Spain. Oranges have been competitive in the Greece, Italy, Portugal, UK, Asian and Northern Europe markets. Competitiveness in these markets has been due to the inherent competitiveness of the industry. Competitiveness in such markets as the Middle East has been attributed to the relatively rapid growth of these markets. The South African citrus industry has similarly undergone many major processes of transformation. The business environmental factors influencing its performance have ranged reform to the challenges beyond the country’s borders. These factors directly and indirectly affect the performance of the industry in the export market. They have influenced the flow of fruits into different international destinations. Of major concern are the food safety and private standards. Challenges in traditional markets as well as opportunities presented by demand from newly emerging citrus consuming nations have seen a diversification in the marketing of the South African citrus. The intensity of competition in the global market is reflected by the fluctuations in the market shares in different markets as well as the increase and fluctuations of fruit rejection rates in some lucrative markets such as America. A combination of challenging national environmental forces and stringent demand conditions negatively impact on revenues especially from markets characterised by price competitiveness. This study identified cost of production, foreign market support systems, adaptability, worker skills, challenges of management in an international environment and government policies such as labour and trade policies as some of the most influential obstacles to competitiveness. Some of the most competiveness-enhancing factors were market availability, market size, market information, market growth and the availability of research institutions. However, compliance with private standards still poses a challenge to the exporters. The different performance levels of the industry in various markets prove the dissimilarity of the demand conditions in the global market. These are supported by the negative influence associated with the foreign market support regimes as well as the challenges associated with compliance with private food safety standards. While market availability, market growth, market information and size were identified as enhancing competitiveness, the fluctuations and inconsistencies in the competitiveness of the industry in different foreign markets require more than finding markets. Resource allocation by both the government and the industry may need to take into account the off-setting of the national challenges and support of farmers faced with distorted and unfair international playing fields. Otherwise, market availability is not a challenge for the industry save meeting the specifications therewith as well as price competitiveness which is unattainable for the South African citrus producers faced with high production costs. For the purposes of further study, it is recommended that account should be taken of all the products marketed by the industry (including processed products such as fruit juices) in order to have a whole picture of the competitiveness of the industry in the international market. This study also proffers a new theoretical framework for the analysis of the business environment for the citrus industry and other agro-businesses. This framework takes into account the indispensability of the food safety standards and measures as well as the diversity of the global consumer and the non-negotiability of food trade for the sustenance of the growing population.

MCOM / Department of Economics / The study aimed to empirically examine the impact of foreign direct investment on economic growth in the Southern African Development Community countries for the period 1980-2015. The relation between foreign direct investment and economic growth has been a subject of extensive discussion in the economic literature. The debate revolves around the growth implications of foreign direct investment. The extraordinary increase in global FDI flows in the last three decades triggered an interest to investigate the growth implications of such huge amounts of cross-border capital movements. Owing to this surge in foreign direct investment flows and the effort countries are putting forth to attract it, it would seem straightforward to argue that foreign direct investment would convey net positive effects on economic growth of a host country. From a theoretical standpoint foreign direct investment has been shown to boost economic growth through technology transfer and diffusion. In light of the expected benefits of foreign direct investment, many empirical studies have been conducted on this subject matter. While the explosion of foreign direct investment flows is distinctive, the evidence accumulated on the growth effects remains mixed. Using fixed effect panel data analysis, on the overall, the findings of the study show a negative effect of FDI on economic growth in the SADC countries for the period 1980 to 2015. The findings are not in tandem with theoretical predictions from growth theorists and some empirical studies carried out on the same topic. The findings of the study imply that FDI does not seem to have an independent effect on economic growth for the panel of countries in the SADC region. This maybe because FDI flows to Africa and into the SADC countries, in particular, are channelled mainly to the extractive sector with little to no linkages with the other sectors of the host country economy. The findings of the study also show that the growth-enhancing potential of FDI is higher in middle-income countries than low-income countries in the SADC region.

MSc (Statistics) / Department of Statistics / Foreign direct investment plays an important role in the economic growth process in the host country, since foreign direct investment is considered as a vehicle transferring new ideas, capital, superior technology and skills from developed country to developing country. Non-parametric quantile regression is used in this study to estimate the relationship between foreign direct investment and the factors in uencing it in South Africa, using the data for the period 1996 to 2015. The variables are selected using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator technique, and all the variables were selected to be in the models. The developed non-parametric quantile regression models were used for forecasting the future in ow of foreign direct investment in South Africa. The forecast evaluation was done for all models and the laplace radial basis kernel, ANOVA radial basis kernel and linear quantile regression averaging were selected as the three best models based on the accuracy measures (mean absolute percentage error, root mean square error and mean absolute error). The best set of forecast was selected based on the prediction interval coverage probability, Prediction interval normalized average deviation and prediction interval normalized average width. The results showed that linear quantile regression averaging is the best model to predict foreign direct investment since it had 100% coverage of the predictions. Linear quantile regression averaging was also con rmed to be the best model under the forecast error distribution. One of the contributions of this study was to bring the accurate foreign direct investment forecast results that can help policy makers to come up with good policies and suitable strategic plans to promote foreign direct investment in ows into South Africa. / NRF

MPM / Oliver Tambo Institute of Governance and Policy Studies / The aim of the study investigates the significance of Auditor General in the control of public funds in local government with specific reference to Mopani District Municipality in order to make recommendations that can assist in improving the control of public funds. The research identifies and assesses weaknesses in how Mopani District Municipality has been controlling its public funds by analyzing the Auditor General reports for the past three financial years and its implications to service delivery. The research further assesses the role played by Auditor General in influencing the internal financial control of the municipality and in auditing the performance of the municipality since in other municipalities money is paid to contractors for services not rendered. The study provides academic input into public administration, specifically in the area of improving service delivery performance, control and financial performance management in municipalities. The study could contribute to the establishment of effective ways of monitoring the control of public funds by municipalities. / NRF

This study shows that managers of short-term insurers may improve their financial results if they can identify and manage the factors that are critical to their financial results. The development and application of the concept of critical success factors are therefore used as a basis for this study. The study reviews the functions performed by short-term insurers, focusing on the effect these functions have on their cash flows. Selection and pricing of risk are discussed in detail. The underwriting cycle in South Africa, and several possible causes of the cycle are investigated. Reinsurance, claims handling and rilanagement expenses are important components of the cash flows of short-term insurers and are therefore examined in detail. The optimum risk level at various combinations of underwriting and investment income is empirically tested, using the financial results of several insurers. The study investigates different approaches to the measurement of financial success of insurers, and the return on shareholders' funds is found to provide the fairest and most reliable method. Empirical comparisons are made on the financial results of the insurers that participated in the study to distinguish between those that are financially successful and those that are not. To discover what the industry consider to be their critical financial success factors, a postal survey was done of key decision makers in the South African short-term insurance industry. Respondents identified several success factors, but did not include some success factors discovered during the review of the literature. Respondents apparently experienced difficulty in separating strategic issues from operational ones. The survey revealed that the pricing of risk is problematic for short-term insurers. The importance of the investment function is also underestimated by the industry. The study concludes that the combined systematic risk of the investment and underwriting portfolios is a critical success factor, along with the capital base of the insurer, the ability of the insurer to use the leverage provided by using policyholders' funds as free reserves and the size and direction of an insurer's cash flows. / Business Management / D. Com (Business Management)

The disclosure of headline earnings is one of the JSE Limited (JSE)’s listing requirements. All listed entities are required to comply with this disclosure requirement. Guidance in the form of The Circular on headline earnings is issued by the South African Institute of Chartered Accountants (SAICA), and is updated every time when there are changes to the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). The Circular adopts a rules-based approach and specifies what is included and excluded in the calculation of headline earnings. The rules consist of general rules, which apply to all entities other than those industry groups with special provisions such as the life insurance entities. This study questions whether a rules-based headline earnings approach or a principles-based approach is more appropriate for the calculation of headline earnings of listed property entities on the JSE, for economic decision-making purposes. The research method consisted of questionnaires that were sent out to stakeholders. The responses from the CFOs and investment analysts show that principles-based headline earnings guidance is preferred over rules-based headline earnings guidance. / Business Management / M. Phil (Accounting Sciences)

It is generally acknowledged that the share price of listed companies is not usually a true reflection of the value imbedded in the said companies. The main purpose of this study is to explore the correlation between selected performance measurement tools, namely Return on Equity (ROE) and Economic Value Added (EVA®), and the share price of companies listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. The study is a quantitative one as it uses data extracted from McGregor BFA database to investigate the relationship between the variables studied. Correlation and linear regression analyses were used in determining such relationships. This study found that there is a synergy in using ROE and EVA® as performance measurement tools and that their interaction explains 8.06% of the movement in the share price of listed companies, all things being equal. Hence it is recommended to identify and study possible synergies between other performance measurement tools. / Management Accounting / M. Phil. (Accounting Sciences)