國內結構債市場業已蓬勃發展，市場模型亦相當適合結構債評價。本文在市場模型下，因市場模型不具馬可夫性質，運用最小平方蒙地卡羅法針對三連結標的為LIBOR的結構債進行評價。 / The market of the structured notes has been blossoming. The lognormal forward LIBOR model is more suitable for the valuation of structured notes than do the traditional interest rate models. In this article, we perform three case studies of the valuation of the structured notes linked to LIBOR in lognormal forward LIOBR model. It is easier to implement the lognormal forward LIBOR model by Monte Carlo simulation due to the non-Markovian property. Therefore, the least-squares Monte Carlo approach is used to deal with the callable feature of the structured notes in our case studies.

Frankfurt (Main), University, Diss., 2008.

Submitted by Cristiane Oliveira (cristiane.oliveira@fgv.br) on 2011-06-03T18:55:36Z No. of bitstreams: 1 66080100276.pdf: 780580 bytes, checksum: 59e34371f81f676e674a30d3b513d3d8 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Vera Lúcia Mourão(vera.mourao@fgv.br) on 2011-06-03T19:22:58Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 66080100276.pdf: 780580 bytes, checksum: 59e34371f81f676e674a30d3b513d3d8 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Vera Lúcia Mourão(vera.mourao@fgv.br) on 2011-06-03T19:24:09Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 66080100276.pdf: 780580 bytes, checksum: 59e34371f81f676e674a30d3b513d3d8 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2011-06-03T19:25:28Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 66080100276.pdf: 780580 bytes, checksum: 59e34371f81f676e674a30d3b513d3d8 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-01-11 / The purpose of this study is to estimate the impact of brazilian corporate issues in USD on Cupom Cambial. We can view Cupom Cambial, under Cover Interest Parity (CIP), as a result of two components: Risk-free rate (Libor) and Country Risk. Additional deviations from CIP can be explained by several factors such as transactions costs, liquidity, arbitrage flows from financial and non-financial companies, etc. In this context, the arbitrage occurs when it becomes possible for a brazilian company to issue external debt and bring this resources to Brazil, finding a final rate in BRL lower than local loans (via debêntures, loans, CD’s, etc), all in. Given the necessary conditions for this type of trade, the effect can be seen in Cupom Cambial market via abnormal flow of sellers. Non-parametric tests (Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney, Kruskal-Wallis e Van der Waerden) and event study methodology found abnormal behavior in FRA of Cupom Cambial (FRC) market during the event window, where the events are the issues of external debt of Brazilian companies, excluding country risk and Libor from FRC changes. To estimate the impact of corporate issues through FRA of cupom cambial, we used two econometric models, AR-GARCH and OLS with Newey-West correction. The results are that brazilian corporate issues cause tightening of 2-5 bps in FRC, depending on the maturity of the issue and the model used. Using the same methodology we concluded that each USD 100 million issue are responsible, on average, for 1 bps tightening in FRC. / Este estudo tem por objetivo estimar o impacto do fluxo de emissões corporativas brasileiras em dólar sobre o cupom cambial. Podemos entender o cupom cambial, sob a ótica da Paridade Coberta da Taxa de Juros, como resultado de dois componentes: Taxa de juros externa (Libor) e Risco País. Desvios adicionais sobre a Paridade podem ser explicados por diversos fatores como custos de transação, liquidez, fluxos em transações de arbitragem de empresas financeiras ou não-financeiras, etc. Neste contexto, os fluxos de arbitragem ocorrem quando é possível para uma empresa brasileira captar recursos no mercado externo e internar estes recursos no Brasil encontrando uma taxa final de captação em reais inferior à de sua captação local (via debêntures, notas financeiras, empréstimos, CDB’s, etc) incluindo todos os custos. Quando há condições necessárias a este tipo de operação, o efeito pode ser visto no mercado de FRA de cupom cambial da BM&F, através de um fluxo anormal de doadores de juros. Testes não-paramétricos (Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney, Kruskal-Wallis e Van der Waerden) e a metodologia de estudo de eventos detectaram comportamento anormal no mercado de FRA de cupom cambial frente aos eventos aqui considerados como emissões de eurobonds de empresas brasileiras, excluindo o efeito do risco soberano, medido pelo CDS Brasil e considerando nulo o risco de conversibilidade no período, após análise do diferencial entre NDF onshore e offshore. Para estimação do impacto das emissões sobre o FRA de cupom cambial foram utilizados dois modelos, AR-GARCH e OLS com correção de Newey-West, e os resultados mostraram que as emissões causam fechamento de 2 a 5 bps no FRA de cupom cambial, dependendo do vencimento da emissão e do modelo avaliado. Sob a mesma metodologia, concluímos de cada USD 100 milhões de emissões são responsáveis por, em média, 1 bps de fechamento no FRA de cupom cambial, tudo mais constante.

This diploma thesis is focused on a role of reference interest rates in developed market economies. There are described interest rate transmission mechanism and discussed factors, which led to manipulation of the LIBOR. How the manipulation was done and what reactions of supervisory authorities it induced. There are also listed proposed recommendations to ensure transparent reference indicators. This work also includes analysis of reference interest rates used in the Czech Republic. At the end of the thesis can be found application of a reference rate fixing process in a game theory model as well as application of Benford´s law as an indicator of the manipulation.

This thesis is focused on the study of advanced methods of interest rate mo- dels calibration. The theoretical part provides introduction to basic terminology of financial mathematics, financial, concretely interest rate derivatives. It presents interest rate models, it is mainly aimed at HJM approach and describes in detail the Libor market model, then introduces the use of Bayesian principle in calcula- ting the probability of MCMC methods. At the end of this section the methods of calibration of volatility to market data are described. The last chapter consists of the practical application of different methods of calibration Libor market model and consequently pricing od interest rate swaption. The introduction describes procedure of arrangement of input data and process of pricing of interest rate derivatives. It is consequently used for the valuation of derivative contract accor- ding to mentioned methods. 1

In this thesis, the pricing of counterparty credit risk on an OTC plain vanilla interest rate swap is investigated. Counterparty credit risk can be defined as the risk that a counterparty in a financial contract might not be able or willing to fulfil their obligations. This risk has to be taken into account in the valuation of an OTC derivative. The market price of the counterparty credit risk is known as the Credit Value Adjustment (CVA). In a bilateral contract, such as a swap, the party’s own creditworthiness also has to be taken into account, leading to another adjustment known as the Debit Value Adjustment (DVA). Since 2013, the international accounting standards (IFRS) states that these adjustments have to be done in order to reflect the fair value of an OTC derivative. A short background and the derivation of CVA and DVA is presented, including related topics like various risk mitigation techniques, hedging of CVA, regulations etc.. Four different pricing frameworks are compared, two more sophisticated frameworks and two approximative approaches. The most complex framework includes an interest rate model in form of the LIBOR Market Model and a credit model in form of the Cox-Ingersoll- Ross model. In this framework, the impact of dependencies between credit and market risk factors (leading to wrong-way/right-way risk) and the dependence between the default time of different parties are investigated. / I den här uppsatsen har prissättning av motpartsrisk för en OTC ränteswap undersökts. Motpartsrisk kan definieras som risken att en motpart i ett finansiellt kontrakt inte har möjlighet eller viljan att fullfölja sin del av kontraktet. Motpartsrisken måste tas med I värderingen av ett OTC-derivat. Marknadspriset på motpartrisken är känt som Credit Value Adjustment (CVA). I ett bilateralt kontrakt, t.ex. som en swap, måste även den egna kreditvärdighet tas med i värderingen, vilket leder till en justering som är känd som Debit Value Adjustment (DVA). Sedan 2013 skall, enligt den internationella redovisningsstandarden (IFRS), dessa prisjusteringar göras vid redovisningen av värdet för ett OTC derivat. En kort bakgrund samt härledningen av CVA och DVA ar presenterade tillsammans med relaterade ämnen. Fyra olika metoder för att beräkna CVA har jämförts, två mer sofistikerade metoder och två approximativa metoder. I den mest avancerade metoden används en räntemodell i form av LIBOR Market Model samt en kreditmodell i form av en Cox-Ingersoll-Ross modell. I den här metoden undersöks även påverkan av CVA då det existerar beroenden mellan marknads

Depuis la crise financière, la modélisation financière et la gestion des risques ont pris une place particulière dans les domaines de la finance et assurance. Cette thèse rentre dans ce cadre et aborde plus spécifiquement trois problématiques en lien avec la modélisation financière, l'évaluation et la couverture des risques. Les trois problématiques se déclinent en trois articles comme suit : "Optimal choice between CAT bond and debt to cover the risks of natural disasters". Ce document de recherche analyse le choix entre la dette non contingente et l'obligation catastrophe pour couvrir le risque de tremblements de terre. Un modèle dynamique d'optimisation stochastique avec frictions a été développé et montre sous quelles conditions il peut être avantageux pour un gouvernement d'émettre une obligation catastrophe plutôt qu'une obligation standard non contingente. "Écart de taux des obligations catastrophes, liquidité et taux d'intérêt " vise à analyser les déterminants de la liquidité des écarts de taux des obligations catastrophes en prenant en compte l'impact des taux d'intérêt. Ce projet permet d'analyser l'impact prépondérant du taux d'intérêt sur les écarts de taux des obligations catastrophes dans le contexte de taux d'intérêt durablement bas observé ces dernières années. "Pricing dynamics and solvency in insurance : capital allocation, surplus and insurance cycle". Cet article propose un modèle de tarification stochastique à plusieurs périodes basé sur la valeur des options de défaut, et qui prend en compte le cycle d'assurance afin d'examiner les interactions entre les prix, l'allocation optimale de capital et la solvabilité d'un assureur multirisque. / Since the financial crisis, financial modeling and risk management have taken on a special role in the fields of finance and insurance. This thesis is part of this context and addresses three specific issues related to financial modeling, risk assessment and risk coverage. The three issues are divided into three articles as follows: "Optimal choice between cat bond and debt to cover the risks of natural disasters ". This research paper analyzes the choice between non-contingent debt and catastrophe bonds to cover the risk of earthquakes. A dynamic stochastic optimization model with frictions has been developed and shows under which conditions it can be advantageous for a government to issue a catastrophe bond rather than a standard non-contingent bond. " Cat bond spreads, liquidity and interest rates" aims to analyze the determinants of liquidity and CAT bond spreads by taking into account the impact of interest rates. This project allows us to analyze the preponderant impact of interest rates on CAT bond spreads in the context of persistently low interest rates observed in recent years. "Pricing dynamics and solvency in insurance: capital allocation, surplus and insurance cycle". This paper proposes a multi-period stochastic pricing model based on the value of default options, and takes into account the insurance cycle, in order to examine the interactions among pricing, optimal capital allocation and solvency of a PC insurer.

在過去二到三年之中，能源、金屬、軟性商品等原物料價格漲勢強勁，成為市場上最炙手可熱的商品。然而，原物料價格漲升為全球帶來了通膨隱憂，世界各國紛紛採用各種貨幣政策和財政政策試圖緩解通膨壓力。其中，利率政策即是相當重要的一環。在這樣的背景之下，是否對於能源、貴金屬和利率衍生性商品的設計和定價上產生影響，值得進一步檢視。因此，本論文選擇以中國大陸的原油與黃金連結複合式選擇權，以及利率（HIBOR）連結可贖回每日區間計息等兩種結構性存款作為研究個案，以財務工程的理論模型為中國銀行的金融創新產品作評價與分析。 在原油與黃金連結複合式選擇權部分，分別假設金價和油價服從幾何布朗運動（Geometric Brownian Motion）推導出封閉解，以及Schwartz的一因子均數回歸模型，採蒙地卡羅模擬法模擬標的資產之價格路徑並以之估算商品理論價值和發行機構利潤，之後則就避險參數和商品預期收益率作分析。在利率連結可贖回每日區間計息結構性存款部分，由於具有發行機構可提前贖回的特性，本論文採用LIBOR市場模型（BGM Model）為評價基礎，先利用市場報價資訊計算期初遠期利率及進行參數校準，再以蒙地卡羅模擬法模擬遠期利率路徑，最後以Longstaff and Schwartz（2001）提出的最小平方蒙地卡羅法（LSM）計算商品理論價值和發行機構利潤。 除估算商品理論價值以檢視中國銀行的商品定價合理性之外，本文也針對中國大陸的外匯和利率政策對金融機構在商品設計方面的影響作分析，最後則分別就財務工程與金融創新以及總體政策與金融市場兩方面提出結論與建議，以供各界參酌。 / The prices of physical commodities have risen a lot and led to pressure of inflation for several years. Many countries over the world have tried hard to tackle inflation threat with monetary and fiscal policies. Under this circumstance, the design and pricing of structured products should be affected. Therefore, the oil and gold-linked and interest rate-linked structured deposits launched by Bank of China are selected to be the case study in this thesis. Prices of the underlying assets are assumed to follow Geometric Brownian Motion, and the close-form solution of the oil and gold-linked structured deposit embedded with compound options is derived. Moreover, Schwartz’s One-Factor Mean Reversion Model is adopted to derive the fair value by simulation. In addition to the fair value and issuer’s profit, the expected rate of return, hedge parameters (Greeks) and model difference are presented in this thesis. As for the interest rate-linked Callable Daily Range Accrual Deposit, the thesis presents the steps of pricing by simulation. LIBOR Market Model (BGM Model) is adopted to derive the fair value of Callable Range Deposit with Least Squares Monte Carlo approach. Besides, the design and pricing of structured products are actually influenced by those policies in relation to interest rates and currencies adopted by government of Mainland China. The influence is discussed in the thesis as well. Eventually, the conclusions and suggestions are made with respect to macroeconomic policy and financial market as well as financial innovation.

次級房貸風暴使得包裝複雜的衍生性金融商品紛紛遭受波及後，目前結構型金融商品的條款設計將朝簡單化和透明化的趨勢發展，有助於全球金融市場的效率性、完整性與穩定性。本文從市場上選擇具代表性的利率結構型商品，應用模型來推導商品的價格，並深入分析商品的報酬與風險型態。 本文分析的個案商品為全球知名的匯豐銀行所發行之十年期「固定期限交換利率利差連動債券」，在評價上將採用LIBOR市場模型，利用市場上既有的資料求算出期初遠期利率，並校準模型所需的參數化波動度函數與相關係數函數，建立與市場一致的利率期間結構與利率波動度期間結構。模擬路徑時應用最小平方法蒙地卡羅來求得該商品發行之期初價格，此外，亦採用反向變異法加速收斂效果，並針對商品的條款設計作拆解與分析。最後，本文探討了發行機構發行商品之風險與避險策略，並且從投資人之報酬及風險層面作詳盡地剖析。

近年來由於金融自由化的發展，台灣已陸續開放新金融商品，除了股權相關的新金融商品之外，也陸續開放利率相關的新金融商品，如新台幣利率交換、新台幣利率選擇權、債券遠期交易、債券選擇權等。在信用衍生性商品市場方面，我國銀行從2002年底開放承做信用衍生性商品，目前正準備開放證券商承做。隨著金融國際化及自由化，未來將會從國外引進更新穎的金融商品，使金融市場更為完備。 本文以Hull – White利率模型及LIBOR市場模型為架構，藉由數值方法評價分析兩個衍生性商品──信用連結票券及利率交換。首先在信用連結票券方面，運用Li（1998）建立信用價差曲線（Credit Curve），將之應用至Hull – White三元樹，評價信用連結票券之價值，並作敏感度分析與避險參數分析。其次在利率交換方面，由於投資人端連結「雪球型」的支付型態，為路徑相依商品，故使用LIBOR市場模型以蒙地卡羅模擬法（Monte Carlo）進行評價與分析，再進行發行者損益兩平分析及情境分析。最後針對兩個商品的評價結果作結論，分析發行者及投資人的利潤及避險，並給予後續研究者模型改進之建議與方向。