El objetivo general del presente trabajo de título es evaluar la aplicabilidad de los modelos de función de transferencia (modelos ARMAX) en la proyección de series de caudales futuros en la cuenca alta del río Loa considerando los efectos del cambio climático global. Para esto, se analiza tanto la serie de caudales proyectada en período futuro, como las etapas intermedias de cálculo realizadas para obtener este resultado. La importancia de obtener proyecciones de caudales del río Loa, radica en su papel como fuente de abastecimiento de agua para importantes sectores productivos y sociales, emplazados en una cuenca árida, y en la cual el río Loa se considera agotado en cuanto a la posibilidad de otorgamiento de nuevos derechos de aprovechamiento de aguas superficiales permanentes. Los efectos del cambio climático global quedan caracterizados mediante proyecciones meteorológicas futuras, obtenidas en un estudio realizado por el Departamento de Geofísica de la Universidad de Chile como proyecciones del modelo meteorológico regional PRECIS. Estas proyecciones se realizan para un periodo de línea de base (1960-1990) y otro futuro (2070-2100) considerando diferentes escenarios de aumento de concentraciones de CO2 para diferentes regiones del país, donde la variable de interés para el presente estudio corresponde a las precipitaciones estimadas en un nivel temporal mensual, en periodo de línea de base y futuro A2. Mediante el uso de modelos de función de transferencia se realizaron proyecciones de caudales futuros a nivel mensual, empleando como variables de entrada las series de precipitaciones PRECIS. Para esto, fue necesario realizar una secuencia de cálculos, correspondientes a diferentes etapas como: validar y corregir las series de precipitaciones PRECIS, calibrar el modelo de función de transferencia a partir de series históricas de precipitaciones y caudales, y validarlo tanto para las series históricas como para las respectivas series PRECIS corregidas. Un punto importante en el desarrollo de la metodología, corresponde al cumplimiento de normalidad y estacionariedad requeridos para las series modeladas mediante función de transferencia, ninguno de los cuales se cumple para las series de caudales y precipitaciones, debiendo aplicarse previamente funciones de transformación sobre las series. Como etapa final del proceso de cálculo, se aplican las inversas de éstas últimas transformaciones en las series proyectadas por el modelo de función de transferencia. Como resultado final se obtienen proyecciones de caudales que, comparadas con la serie de caudales observados en periodo de línea de base, son coherentes con la comparación entre las respectivas series de precipitaciones de entrada, en cuanto a un valor promedio general. Pero presentan problemas en cuanto a la distribución de caudales en el ciclo anual, y en los valores extremos (máximos y mínimos) de la serie, ya que no son coherentes con las variaciones de los valores extremos de las precipitaciones futuras. Se concluye planteando dos posibles hipótesis que pueden explicar los problemas en los resultados obtenidos. La primera plantea emplear un modelo de función de transferencia que contenga componentes estacionales para ver si mejora el problema de la distribución de valores en el ciclo anual, y la otra plantea la incompatibilidad entre el uso de modelos de función de transferencia y series PRECIS, debido a que éste modelo considera el orden de los valores dentro de la serie, mientras que las series PRECIS no presentan correspondencia cronológica con las series observadas.

In an ever-changing industry where competition between actors is growing, technical improvements and investments can be a way to outperform competitors and gain competitiveadvantages. In a relatively under-developed industry, technological developments may leadto major improvements and change the layout of the whole business. Purpose – The main purpose of this thesis is to investigate potential cost reductions obtained by autonomous vehicles within the Swedish logistics industry. Studying opportunities for companies tostrengthen their competitive advantage can create new markets, chances or ensure a strongmarket position. To investigate said opportunities, the following research questions werestated: What is the actual cost of implementing an autonomous vehicle? Which costs will be affected by an implementation of autonomous vehicles? How do these costs impact the Swedish logistics market seen from a cost perspective? Method – The data necessary to answer the questions was collected from document studies, literature studies and interviews. These were carried out simultaneously in an iterativeprocess. Moreover, a pragmatic philosophy was undertaken, together with an abductive approach. The data was compared with existing theory by pattern matching and analysed withthematic approach, in order to ensure the level of trustworthiness. Findings/Implications – The findings of this thesis is that autonomous vehicles willheavily impact the logistics industry. By gradually implementing autonomous vehicles, theSwedish logistics sector can save upwards of 13,4 billion SEK between 2020 and 2030.This shift towards autonomous vehicles will move jobs from the long haul sector to urbanlogistics and telecommunications. Additionally, the society will see great benefits as 90% ofall traffic accidents will not happen when all vehicles are autonomous. It is clear that theSwedish logistics industry will benefit from an implementation of autonomous vehicles.Simultaneously it will also be beneficial for the society and the Swedish welfare. Limitations – The major limitation of this thesis is the time horizon. Because of being future oriented, much data was based on external estimations that might change over time.Moreover, only costs directly connected to transportations has been investigated, leavingroom for further studies related to indirect costs, as well as the organizational impacts onfuture supply chains.

Submitted by Mario Filho (magoamfi@ig.com.br) on 2014-07-12T03:49:21Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Disseração Mestrado.pdf: 1221977 bytes, checksum: 0f96be6dae8a0041fa9b8671f9c114dd (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Janete de Oliveira Feitosa (janete.feitosa@fgv.br) on 2014-07-16T16:48:20Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Disseração Mestrado.pdf: 1221977 bytes, checksum: 0f96be6dae8a0041fa9b8671f9c114dd (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Marcia Bacha (marcia.bacha@fgv.br) on 2014-07-18T12:03:17Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Disseração Mestrado.pdf: 1221977 bytes, checksum: 0f96be6dae8a0041fa9b8671f9c114dd (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2014-07-18T12:03:27Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Disseração Mestrado.pdf: 1221977 bytes, checksum: 0f96be6dae8a0041fa9b8671f9c114dd (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-05-22 / The objective of this work is to identify the factors that influenced the attempt to transpose the campaign promises of major election for mayor of Nilópolis in the 2012 election for the PPA 2014 / 2017 . For this, the concepts of federalism , public management and planning tools were discussed in the theoretical framework. Interviews with technical and executive manager , the chairmen of the constitution and justice and the finance committee were held , as well as president of the city council of Nilópolis. It was found that the factors identified are responsible for the difficulty in promoting alignment between campaign promises and agreed in the PPA . The dependence of inter -governmental transfers and the scarcity of resources were the main factors that hindered implementation in the municipality of Nilópolis. / O objetivo deste trabalho é de identificar os fatores que influenciaram a tentativa de transpor as promessas de campanha da eleição majoritária à Prefeitura de Nilópolis na eleição de 2012 para o PPA 2014 / 2017. Para isso, os conceitos de federalismo, gestão pública e instrumentos de planejamento foram abordados no referencial teórico. Foram realizadas entrevistas com os técnicos e o gestor do executivo, os presidentes das comissões de constituição e justiça e comissão de finanças, bem como o presidente da câmara dos vereadores de Nilópolis. Verificou-se que os fatores identificados são responsáveis pela dificuldade em promover o alinhamento entre as promessas de campanha e o pactuado no PPA. A dependência das transferências inter governamentais e a escassez de recursos próprios foram os principais fatores que dificultaram essa transposição no município de Nilópolis.

As attention of scholars shift from perils of presidentialism to perils of semipresidentialism in the recent decades, French style of cohabitation power sharing mode in the executive merits our endeavor to understand the micro-dynamics that is embedded in it. It includes how it emerged, how it was practiced and what consequences it produced. Such effort, if wisely applied, can probably be helpful in slowing down the rate of political system breakdown in many of the newly emerged democratic systems that emulate the French model. After an introduction to the blackbox of French cohabitation, the remainder of the dissertation is divided into eight chapters. Chapter 2 briefly reviews the existing literature on French cohabitation. Chapter 3 introduces the interpretive paradigm of qualitative research that is employed to analyze data and to facilitate theory building. In the 4th theoretical discussion chapter, three elements of practice theory approach ¡V temporality, duality of structure and unanticipated consequences are elaborated respectively. The three elements correspond to answer three research questions comprising how cohabitation emerged, how it was practiced and what kinds of consequences it produced. Chapter 5 to 8 display findings to the questions. They unravel for us other faces of French cohabitation which can be an active outcome of rationalization, a dynamic generator and a collective inevitable self-deception. Chapter 9 concludes by delineating theoretical and practical contribution of the dissertation.

Planning and management of logistics and material flow are widely studied and two key factors contributing to company competitiveness. Automation in material flow is recognized in efficient and profitable factories in the context of today’s smart industry, however, the operators are playing a significant role as well. The purpose of the study was to identify which criteria could be used to determine the level of automation in a material flow of the industrial factory. A model was developed to practically support the decision making on the level of automation for the case company that was going to build a pilot line for battery manufacturing. The question for the case company was to decide whether the process should be fully automated, manual, or semi-automated in its trial production to avoid costly reconfigurations when a full production starts. In this study a literature review was conducted in the form of previous research to describe which criteria were important to decide the level of automation. The literature study together with site visiting, interviews, survey and document analysis was used for the formulation of research questions, establishment of methodology and model development. The study has identified different criteria whereas six of them are shared by both literature studies and the case company. Two unique criteria were identified in the case company but not found in the literature: lead time and recruitment. The lead time refers to the time from planning to finished process and the recruitment is about how difficult to recruit people with the right skills. Two theoretical contributions presented in this study: new criteria when deciding on the level of automation and a model that assists in decisions regarding the level of automation in early phases. The model is also a practical contribution to the case company. Finally, some suggestions for further research within the area are presented.

The 2014-15 lava flow crisis at Kīlauea volcano, Hawai‘i and post-September 2015 elevated unrest at adjacent Mauna Loa volcano provided opportunities to assess households’ psychological and behavioral responses to different levels of volcanic activity. Weused the Protective Action Decision Model to examine stakeholder perceptions and confidence in warnings, in addition toattitudes toward lava flow mitigation strategies, such as diversion by berms and bombing, and people’s acceptance of additional risk to personal property in exchange for protecting important elements of their community, such as schools, major roads, electrical substation, and shopping centers. Respondents’ confidence in events important in decision-making during emergencies and evacuations were significantly correlated with their past experience with lava forecasts. Consistent with previous studies, overall support for the two different mitigation measures was higher for earthen berms/trenches than it was for bombing/blasting. Finally, diversion acceptance was strongly correlated with residents’ perceptions of lava flow diversion strategies.

The Media Arts Building for a small Hawaiian college was designed following the guidelines set forth in the Hawaii Loa College International Design Competition. The central issue of this design problem concerned the dualism of the South Pacific cultures with the high-technology characteristic of the twenty-first century. Large characteristic columns were used to give the building complex a unique identity to correlate with the concerns for culture. In response to high-technology, the building site accepted the satellite dishes as artistic forms in the sculpture gardens. The campus plan was reorganized centering concern on the college as a place of education which led to the formation of a central quadrangle. / Master of Architecture

Master´s thesis describestheproblemsoflow-noiseroadsurfaces. Thetheoretical part describestrafficnoise, sourcesofnoise, thelow-noiseroadsurfaces and thepractical part - describestwoproposalsoflow-noise stone masticasphalt SMA 8 LA and Düsseldorflow-noise stone asphalt LOA 5.

Arbitration proceedings as a means of dispute resolution in international law with regard to the recognition and enforcement of foreign arbitral awards Resumé Arbitration as a method of settlement of disputes settlement has enjoyed growing popularity in recent several years. Arbitration stands between other alternative means of dispute settlement and the common court trial as a alternative dispute resolution. Although negotiation, good offices, mediation, conciliation, inquiry, mini-trial, medarb or meadaloa are often used forms of the dispute settlement their awards cannot be enforced by the state authority. Those means are popular mainly in the business field where the parties are interested in the cooperation and where they aim to clear up some misunderstanding or technical problems rather than solve major disputes between them. While the dispute should be solved by the binding way the parties would choose the arbitration as a legally framed procedure. Arbitral awards are then able to be enforced and the parties also have more exact boundaries for the whole procedure. However, there is no unified definition of the arbitration, it could be described as a legal technique where the parties bring claim before one or more neutral persons (arbiters or arbitral tribunal) by whose award the parties agree to be...