A importância regional da Bacia do Rio Corumbataí para o abastecimento de água, em qualidade e quantidade, e o elevado nível de desmatamento que é na atualidade um dos fatores que mais afetam a sua biodiversidade, motivaram a análise da estrutura paisagem dessa área. Para essa análise foi produzido o mapa de uso e cobertura do solo da bacia e aplicados índices de ecologia da paisagem. O mapa de uso e cobertura do solo foi produzido pela classificação digital supervisionada (algoritmo de máxima verossimilhança) de imagens orbitais digitais (SPOT e LANDSAT ), com exatidão global de 91,10%.Os índices de ecologia da paisagem (calculados pelo software FRAGSTATS) foram determinados por sub-bacias (Passa-Cinco, Alto Corumbataí, Médio Corumbataí, Ribeirão Claro e Baixo Corumbataí), sendo utilizados os que fazem a caracterização em nível de fragmentos e em nível de classes de uso e cobertura do solo. Os índices referentes às classes forneceram as caracterizações das classes floresta nativa (Floresta Estacional Semidecidual) e cerrado; e os referentes a fragmentos a caracterização, dos seus respectivos remanescentes. As caracterizações quantitativas em nível de fragmentos e de classes de uso e cobertura do solo foram feitas com os grupos de índices de área; densidade, tamanho e variabilidade métrica; área nuclear; forma; proximidade; e dispersão e justaposição. Com base nesses índices, pode-se dizer que a estrutura florestal das sub-bacias do rio Passa-Cinco e Alto Corumbataí, apresentaram algumas diferenciações em relação às sub-bacias do Médio Corumbataí, do Ribeirão Claro, e do Baixo Corumbataí. Os índices indicaram que nas sub-bacias do Médio Corumbataí, do Ribeirão Claro, e Baixo Corumbataí, existe a predominância de fragmentos de floresta nativa menores que 15 ha e que seus fragmentos, independentemente do tamanho, estão mais distantes uns dos outros e, portanto, mais sujeitos às ações dos outros usos e coberturas do solo que os remanescentes das sub-bacias do Alto Corumbataí e do rio Passa-Cinco. Nas sub-bacias do rio Passa-Cinco, do Alto Corumbataí e do Ribeirão Claro, a estrutura florestal tem como outro componente a vegetação de cerrado. No Alto Corumbataí, essa vegetação representa 78,24% do total de cerrado da Bacia do Rio Corumbataí. Neste contexto, pode-se concluir que os índices de ecologia da paisagem, quando analisados em conjunto, permitiram a caracterização da estrutura florestal das sub-bacias da Bacia do Rio Corumbataí e a avaliação dessas áreas, sob o ponto de vista da preservação e da conservação florestal. Tendo por base a preservação e a conservação florestal, pode-se concluir que as sub-bacias do Passa-Cinco e Alto Corumbataí têm um padrão de estrutura florestal com predominância de fragmentos aptos à preservação. Essa condição é conseqüência do fato de possuirem fragmentos com área nuclear suficiente para manter sua estrutura interna e a estabilidade da estrutura florestal da paisagem em que estão inseridos. As sub-bacias do Ribeirão Claro, Baixo Corumbataí e, principalmente, do Médio Corumbataí, apresentam estrutura florestal com a maioria de fragmentos devendo ser conservados. Os fragmentos que possuem a área mínima necessária à autossustentabilidade não são suficientes, em número, para manter a estabilidade dessas paisagens. / Corumbataí River Basin is regionally important for public water supply. It presents a high deforestation level, which affects deeply its biodiversity. These facts have motivated the landscape structure analysis of this area, based on its land use/land cover map and landscape ecology indices. Land use/ land cover map was produced by supervised digital classification (maximum Likelihood algorithm) of satellite images (SPOT and LANDSAT), with an classification accuracy of 91.10%. Landscape ecology indices (calculated by FRAGSTATS software) were determined for each sub-basin (Passa-Cinco, Alto Corumbataí, Médio Corumbataí, Ribeirão Claro e Baixo Corumbataí), being used those that perform the characterization to the patch level and land use/land cover classes level. The classes quantified were: native forest (Seasonal Semidecidual Forest) and cerrado. The indices groups applied were: area; density, size and variability metrics; core area; shape; proximity; interspersion and juxtaposition index. Based on those indices one can assert that the forest structure of Passa-Cinco and Alto Corumbataí sub-basins showed some differences in relation to the other ones. Most of the native forest patches in the Médio Corumbataí, Ribeirão Claro e Baixo Corumbataí sub-basins are less than the native forest patches of the other two sub-basins. Other native vegetation class in the Passa-Cinco, Alto Corumbataí, and Ribeirão Claro sub-basins is the cerrado, mainly in the Alto Corumbataí (78.24% of the whole basin). The results of this research have indicated that the landscape ecology indices allowed the forest structure characterization of the Corumbataí River sub-basins and the evaluation of those areas according to the viewpoint of forest preservation and conservation. Most of the native forest patches in Passa-Cinco and Alto Corumbataí sub-basin should be preserved. This is a consequence of the fact of having core area big enough to maintain their internal structure and stability of forest structure in the landscape where they are. For the Ribeirão Claro, Baixo Corumbataí, and mainly Médio Corumbataí, most of the native forest patches should be conserved. Those patches do not have a core area able to sustain themselves.

A importância regional da Bacia do Rio Corumbataí para o abastecimento de água, em qualidade e quantidade, e o elevado nível de desmatamento que é na atualidade um dos fatores que mais afetam a sua biodiversidade, motivaram a análise da estrutura paisagem dessa área. Para essa análise foi produzido o mapa de uso e cobertura do solo da bacia e aplicados índices de ecologia da paisagem. O mapa de uso e cobertura do solo foi produzido pela classificação digital supervisionada (algoritmo de máxima verossimilhança) de imagens orbitais digitais (SPOT e LANDSAT ), com exatidão global de 91,10%.Os índices de ecologia da paisagem (calculados pelo software FRAGSTATS) foram determinados por sub-bacias (Passa-Cinco, Alto Corumbataí, Médio Corumbataí, Ribeirão Claro e Baixo Corumbataí), sendo utilizados os que fazem a caracterização em nível de fragmentos e em nível de classes de uso e cobertura do solo. Os índices referentes às classes forneceram as caracterizações das classes floresta nativa (Floresta Estacional Semidecidual) e cerrado; e os referentes a fragmentos a caracterização, dos seus respectivos remanescentes. As caracterizações quantitativas em nível de fragmentos e de classes de uso e cobertura do solo foram feitas com os grupos de índices de área; densidade, tamanho e variabilidade métrica; área nuclear; forma; proximidade; e dispersão e justaposição. Com base nesses índices, pode-se dizer que a estrutura florestal das sub-bacias do rio Passa-Cinco e Alto Corumbataí, apresentaram algumas diferenciações em relação às sub-bacias do Médio Corumbataí, do Ribeirão Claro, e do Baixo Corumbataí. Os índices indicaram que nas sub-bacias do Médio Corumbataí, do Ribeirão Claro, e Baixo Corumbataí, existe a predominância de fragmentos de floresta nativa menores que 15 ha e que seus fragmentos, independentemente do tamanho, estão mais distantes uns dos outros e, portanto, mais sujeitos às ações dos outros usos e coberturas do solo que os remanescentes das sub-bacias do Alto Corumbataí e do rio Passa-Cinco. Nas sub-bacias do rio Passa-Cinco, do Alto Corumbataí e do Ribeirão Claro, a estrutura florestal tem como outro componente a vegetação de cerrado. No Alto Corumbataí, essa vegetação representa 78,24% do total de cerrado da Bacia do Rio Corumbataí. Neste contexto, pode-se concluir que os índices de ecologia da paisagem, quando analisados em conjunto, permitiram a caracterização da estrutura florestal das sub-bacias da Bacia do Rio Corumbataí e a avaliação dessas áreas, sob o ponto de vista da preservação e da conservação florestal. Tendo por base a preservação e a conservação florestal, pode-se concluir que as sub-bacias do Passa-Cinco e Alto Corumbataí têm um padrão de estrutura florestal com predominância de fragmentos aptos à preservação. Essa condição é conseqüência do fato de possuirem fragmentos com área nuclear suficiente para manter sua estrutura interna e a estabilidade da estrutura florestal da paisagem em que estão inseridos. As sub-bacias do Ribeirão Claro, Baixo Corumbataí e, principalmente, do Médio Corumbataí, apresentam estrutura florestal com a maioria de fragmentos devendo ser conservados. Os fragmentos que possuem a área mínima necessária à autossustentabilidade não são suficientes, em número, para manter a estabilidade dessas paisagens. / Corumbataí River Basin is regionally important for public water supply. It presents a high deforestation level, which affects deeply its biodiversity. These facts have motivated the landscape structure analysis of this area, based on its land use/land cover map and landscape ecology indices. Land use/ land cover map was produced by supervised digital classification (maximum Likelihood algorithm) of satellite images (SPOT and LANDSAT), with an classification accuracy of 91.10%. Landscape ecology indices (calculated by FRAGSTATS software) were determined for each sub-basin (Passa-Cinco, Alto Corumbataí, Médio Corumbataí, Ribeirão Claro e Baixo Corumbataí), being used those that perform the characterization to the patch level and land use/land cover classes level. The classes quantified were: native forest (Seasonal Semidecidual Forest) and cerrado. The indices groups applied were: area; density, size and variability metrics; core area; shape; proximity; interspersion and juxtaposition index. Based on those indices one can assert that the forest structure of Passa-Cinco and Alto Corumbataí sub-basins showed some differences in relation to the other ones. Most of the native forest patches in the Médio Corumbataí, Ribeirão Claro e Baixo Corumbataí sub-basins are less than the native forest patches of the other two sub-basins. Other native vegetation class in the Passa-Cinco, Alto Corumbataí, and Ribeirão Claro sub-basins is the cerrado, mainly in the Alto Corumbataí (78.24% of the whole basin). The results of this research have indicated that the landscape ecology indices allowed the forest structure characterization of the Corumbataí River sub-basins and the evaluation of those areas according to the viewpoint of forest preservation and conservation. Most of the native forest patches in Passa-Cinco and Alto Corumbataí sub-basin should be preserved. This is a consequence of the fact of having core area big enough to maintain their internal structure and stability of forest structure in the landscape where they are. For the Ribeirão Claro, Baixo Corumbataí, and mainly Médio Corumbataí, most of the native forest patches should be conserved. Those patches do not have a core area able to sustain themselves.

Este trabalho apresenta uma metodologia de classificação de imagens multiespectrais aplicada a análise e mapeamento da evolução do uso da terra/cobertura vegetal em São Félix do Xingu, Sul do Pará. Imagens frações representando as proporções de sombra, vegetação e solo foram estimadas a partir das bandas 1 a 5 e 7 do Landsat-5 TM e relacionadas com as estruturas das classes de uso da terra/cobertura vegetal. As imagens frações geradas do modelo linear de mistura espectral foram importantes para reduzir a massa de dados e ao mesmo tempo realçar alvos de interesse na imagem. A banda do infravermelho próximo (TM-4) foi importante para realçar áreas de queimadas. A classificação adotada foi divida em etapas combinando técnica de segmentação por crescimento de regiões e uso de máscaras. Por meio da máscara foi possível restringir o processo de segmentação em regiões pré-estabelecidas com o intuito de adquirir um melhor particionamento da imagem. Adotando este procedimento, ao invés de realizar uma única segmentação para mapear todas as classes em uma única vez, foram realizadas várias segmentações ao longo das etapas. As regiões segmentadas foram agrupadas com um classificador não-supervionado batizado de ISOSEG. Os resultados mostram que a metodologia é bastante eficiente. A matriz de erro gerada para a classificação de 2008 apontou que as confusões mais freqüentes ocorreram entre as classes que apresentaram em certas localidades proporções de misturas parecidas: Capoeira e Campo/Pastagem-2; Campo/Pastagem-1 e Campo/Pastagem-2; Queimada-1 e Queimada-2; Solo Exposto e Campo/Pastagem-1. Considerando nove classes, o índice Kappa atingiu 0,58, o que representa um valor de concordância classificada como moderada. Quando o numero de classes foi reduzido para 6, agrupando as classes que apresentaram as maiores confusões, o índice Kappa subiu para 0,80, atingindo um valor de concordância quase perfeita. A comparação dos resultados das classificações de 1987, 1992, 2000 e 2008 juntamente com a analise de dados auxiliares permitiu traçar um modelo de evolução do desmatamento e do uso da terra para São Félix do Xingu. O intenso desmatamento observado principalmente a partir de 2000 foi relacionado com o incremento da atividade pecuária, sendo São Félix do Xingu o município que detém atualmente o segundo maior rebanho bovino do País. / In this work we present a methodological procedure for multi-spectral images classification to evaluate and map land-use and land-cover changes in São Félix do Xingu, Southern Pará (Brazilian Amazon). Fraction images representing shade, vegetation and soil abundance at the pixel scale were estimated using all six reflective bands of Thematic Mapper sensor (TM-1 to TM-5 and TM-7) and related to different types of land-use and land-cover classes. The linear spectral mixing analysis method was an alternative approach adopted to reduce the data-dimensionality while at the same time enhancing targets of interest. Also, the near-infrared band (TM-4) was employed to separate areas affected by burns (Queimadas in Portuguese). The classification routines were performed in stages by combining region-growing segmentation and use of masking techniques. For each stage, the segmentation process was directed to preselected areas by masking techniques in order to obtain a better image partitioning. This procedure resulted in more than one segmentation thereby reducing confusing errors during the classification routine. An unsupervised classifier by region named ISOSEG was employed to classify the segmented images. The analysis of classification results was mainly qualitative and visual except for the 2008 classification which was assessed through an error matrix. According to the error matrix analysis, misclassifications arose more frequently when a set of classes with similar mixture proportions were involved, such as: Capoeira and Campo/Pastagem-2; Campo/Pastagem-1 and Campo/Pastagem- 2; Queimada-1 and Queimada-2, and finally Bare Soil and Campo/Pastagem-1. As a robust measure of concordance for dichotomous data, the kappa statistic reached a value of 0.62 by considering nine land types of classes and it rose to 0.80 when the mapping classes were diminished to six. Theses kappa values represent moderate and strong agreements between the remotely sensed classification and the reference data, respectively. Making use of the classification results from 1987, 1992, 2000 and 2008 and auxiliary data, we tried to design a simple land evolution model to São Félix do Xingu. The deforestation process notably intensified since 2000 has been driven mainly by a continuous increase in cattle breeding, for wich São Félix do Xingu has the second-largest cattle herd of all Brazilian municipalities.

L’Amazonie est soumise depuis plusieurs décennies à un changement rapide d’occupation du sol du fait de la déforestation, l’installation de systèmes de production agricole, notamment l’élevage bovin et plus récemment le soja. L’un des défis majeurs est de mieux comprendre la dynamique spatiale de ces processus et ses déterminants. Avec la réduction de la déforestation et l’évolution agraire sur les fronts pionniers, les ressources et contraintes naturelles semblent gagner en importance dans les choix opérés par les agriculteurs. L'objectif de la présente recherche est d'évaluer le rôle des facteurs biophysiques dans la dynamique de l’occupation du sol depuis 2000 et d’anticiper sur des futurs possibles dans un territoire amazonien d’ancien front pionnier, aujourd’hui consolidé, la municipalité de Paragominas. Nous avons mis en œuvre un modèle spatialement explicite, afin d’identifier la distribution spatiale des processus de changement en relation avec différents facteurs. Des entretiens réalisés avec des producteurs explicitent les logiques sous-jacentes. Les résultats montrent qu'il y a différentes logiques d'usage des ressources biophysiques, qui varient selon les types de production, la taille des exploitations, la distance aux routes et villages, et la distribution spatiale des ressources biophysiques dans l'exploitation. Elles évoluent au fil du temps, en fonction des productions et des avancées technologiques, et sont organisées dans l'espace. La mise en évidence de ces relations spatiales constitue une avancée significative pour représenter l'évolution de l’ usage des sols et constituer un appui dans la définition de politiques de développement territorial. / The Amazon has been subject to a rapid change in land use due to deforestation for several decades and more recently to the expansion of annual crops like soybeans. One of the major challenges is to understand better the spatial dynamics of these processes and its determinants. With the reduction of deforestation and the consolidation of pioneer fronts, natural resources and constraints seem to be gaining in importance in farmers' choices. The objective of this research was to assess the role of biophysical factors in land use dynamics since 2000 and to anticipate possible futures in a consolidated Amazonian pioneer frontier, the municipality of Paragominas. We implemented a spatially explicit model to identify the spatial distribution of change processes in relation to different factors. Interviews with farmers explain the underlying strategy. The results show different strategies for the use of biophysical resources according to the types of production, the size of the farms, the distance to roads and villages and the spatial distribution of biophysical resources in the farm. The strategies evolve over time, in relation to production and technological advances, and are organized in space. A better understanding of the importance of biophysical resources on the evolution of pioneer fronts through this type of method could provide support for land-use policies.

Summary Fresh water availability and distribution have been declining over time due to population increase, climate change and variability, emerging new demands due to economic growth, and changing consumption patterns. Spatial and temporal changes in environmental changes, such as climate and land use/cover (LULC) dynamics have an enormous impact on water availability. Food and energy security, urbanization and industrial growth, as well as climate change (CC) will pose critical challenges on water resources. Climate variability and change may affect both the supply and demand sides of the balance, and thus add to the challenges. Land-cover changes are vastly prominent in the developing countries that are characterized by agriculture-based economies and rapidly increasing human population. The consequent changes in water availability and increase in per capita water demand will adversely affect the food, water and energy security of those countries. Therefore, evaluating the response of the catchment to environmental changes is crucial in the critical part of the basin for sustainable water resource management and development. In particular, assessing the contribution of individual LULC classes to changes in water balance components is vital for effective water and land resource management, and for mitigation of climate change impacts. The dynamic water balance of a catchment is analyzed by hydrological models that consider spatio-temporal catchment characteristics. As a result, hydrological models have become indispensable tools for the study of hydrological processes and the impacts of environmental stressors on the hydrologic system. Physically-based distributed hydrological models are able to explicitly account for the spatial variability of hydrological process, catchment characteristics such as climatic parameters, and land use/cover changes. For improved illustration of physical processes in space and time, the distributed hydrological models need serially complete and homogenized rainfall and temperature data. However, observed rainfall and temperature data are neither serially complete nor homogeneous, particularly in developing countries. Using inhomogeneous climatological data inputs to hydrological models affects the output magnitude of climate and land use/cover change impacts and, hence, climate change adaptation. The Nile River Basin, one of the transboundary river flows through 11 riparian states, serves the livelihoods of millions of people in the basin (nearly 20 per cent of the African population) and covers one-tenth of the land cover of Africa. The basin is characterized by high population growth and high temporal variability in the river flow and rainfall patterns. The Blue Nile river basin, which contributes 62% of the annual main Nile flow, has faced serious land degradation. This has led to increased soil erosion and loss of soil fertility. The most overwhelming challenge that the basin faces is food insecurity caused by subsistence farming and rain-fed agriculture (over 70% of the basin’s population), together with high rainfall variability. Drought and floods are also critical issues in the Blue Nile basin, with the potential for exacerbation by environmental changes. Understanding how LULC and climate changes influence basin hydrology will therefore enable decision makers to introduce policies aimed at reducing the detrimental effects of future environmental changes on water resources. Understanding types and impacts of major environmental stressors in representative and critical regions of the basin is crucial for developing of effective response strategies for sustainable land- and water-resource management in the Eastern Nile Basin in general, and at the Tana and Beles watersheds in particular. In this study, serially completed and homogenized rainfall and temperature dataset are maintained from 1980 to 2013 to fill-in the gap which characterized previous studies on trend analyses. The new hydroclimatic data revealed that the climate the study region has become wetter and warmer. The proportional contribution of main rainy season rainfall to annual total rainfall has increased. This might result in high runoff and ultimately flooding as well as erosion and sedimentation in the source region of the Blue Nile, and siltation in the downstream reservoirs unless soil and water conservation measures are taking place. In the Tana sub-basin, it is found that expansion of cultivation land and decline in woody shrub are the major contributors to the rise in surface run-off and to the decline in the groundwater component from 1986 to 2010. Similarly, decline of woodland and expansion of cultivation land are found to be the major contributors to the increase in surface run-off and water yield. They also contributed to the decrease in groundwater and actual evapotranspiration components in the Beles watershed. Increased run-off and reduced baseflow and actual evapotranspiration would have negative impacts on water resources, especially in relation to erosion and sedimentation in the upper Blue Nile River Basin. As a result, expansion of cultivation land and decline in woody shrub/woodland appear to be major environmental stressors affecting local water resources. GCMs simulated near-future annual total rainfall and average temperature were used to investigate the sensitivity of the catchment to near-future CC. The results showed an increase in streamflow in the annual and the main rainy season, but decrease in the dry period when compared to the baseline period. Catchment response for future LULC scenario showed opposite effect to that of near-future CC. The combined effects of climate change and LULC dynamics can be quite different from the effects resulting from LULC or CC alone. At the outlet of the Tana watershed, streamflow response is amplified under concurrent land cover and climate change scenarios compared to the baseline scenario; but the streamflow has an augmenting response at the outlet of the Beles watershed under future climate change and land use scenarios compared to that of current period. The important inference from these findings is that it could be possible to alleviate intense floods or droughts due to future climate change by planning LULC to achieve particular hydrological effects of land cover in the basin. Continuing expansion of cultivation land and decrease in natural vegetation, coupled with increased rainfall due to climate change, would result in high surface runoff in the main rainy season, which would subsequently increase flooding, erosion and sedimentation in already degraded lands. Sound mitigation measures should therefore be applied to reduce these adverse environmental consequences. On the other hand, the simulated climate and land-use change impacts on the Tana watershed hydrological regime might increase the availability of streamflow to be harnessed by water-storage structures. In conclusion, the present study has developed an innovative approach to identify the major environmental stressors of critical source region of the Blue Nile River in order to effectively managing the water resources and climate risk. Understanding the catchment responses to environmental changes improves sustainability of the water resources management particularly given that the hydropower and the irrigation schemes are recently established for energy and food security.:TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS LIST OF FIGURES LIST OF TABLES 1. General Introduction 2. The study area 3. Gap Filling and Homogenization of Climatological Datasets in the Headwater Region of the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia Abstract 3.1. Introduction 3.1.1. Data 3.2. Methodology 3.2.1. Quality control and gap filling 3.2.2. Homogenization 3.3. Results and Discussion 3.3.1. Gap filling 3.3.2. Homogeneity 3.3.3. Verification of the homogenization 3.3.4. Impact of homogenization on the rainfall and temperature series 3.4. Conclusions Acknowledgements 4. Revisiting trend analysis of hydroclimatic data in the Upper Blue Nile basin based on homogenized data Abstract 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Data and Methodology 4. 2.1 Data 4. 2.2 Linear trend 4. 2.3 Trend magnitude 4.3 Results and Discussions 4.3.1. Linear mean climate trends 4.3.1.1. Rainfall 4.3.1.2. Maximum Temperature (Tmax) 4.3.1.3. Minimum Temperature (Tmin) 4.3.1.4. Mean temperature (Tmean) 4.3.1.5. Diurnal temperature range (DTR) 4.3.1.6. Streamflow 4.3.2. Effect of homogenization on Tmax, Tmin, Tmean and DTR linear trends 4.3.3. Linear extreme climate trends 4.3.1. Temperature 4.3.2. Precipitation 4.4 Conclusions Acknowledgements 5. Recent Changes in Land Use/Cover in the Headwater Region of the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia 85 Abstract 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Materials and Methods 5.2.1 Data used and image pre-processing 5.2.2 Classification accuracy assessment 5.2.3 Extent and rate of change 5.2.4 Detecting the most systematic transitions (dominant signals of change) 5.4 Results and Discussion 5.4.1 Accuracy assessment 5.4.2 Extent and rate of LULC changes 5.4.3 Rate of land use and land cover change 5.4.4 Detection of most systematic transitions 5.5 Conclusions Acknowledgements 6. Hydrological Responses to Land use/cover Changes in the Tana and Beles Watersheds, the Upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia Abstract 6.1 Introduction 6.2 Method 6.2.1 Hydrological modeling 6.2.2 Partial least squares regression 6.3 Results and Discussion 6.3.1 Calibration and validation of SWAT 6.3.2 Impacts of LULC changes on hydrology at the basin scale 6.3.3 Contribution of changes in individual LULCs to hydrological components 6.4 Conclusions Acknowledgements 7. Combined Impact of Climate and Land Use Changes on Hydrology in the Tana and Beles Sub-Basins, Upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia Abstract 7.1 Introduction 7.2 Methodology 7.2.1 Simulation 7.2.2 Climate change scenarios 7.2.3 LULC change scenarios 7.3 Results and Discussion 7.3.1 Future versus current LULC impact on the basin hydrology 7.3.2 Future versus baseline climate 7.3.3 Impact of combined future climate and LULC changes on hydrology 7.4 Uncertainties and Limitations 7.5 Conclusions Acknowledgements 8. Overall Conclusions, Recommendations and Future Research Directions 8.1. Overall Conclusions 8.2 Recommendations and Directions for further research References

Following the hierarchical nature of forest resource management, the present work focuses on the natural forest cover at various abstraction levels of details, i.e. categorical land use/land cover (LU/LC) level and a continuous empirical estimation of local operational level. As no single sensor presently covers absolutely all the requirements of the entire levels of forest resource assessment, multisource imagery (i.e. RapidEye, TERRA ASTER and LANDSAT TM), in addition to other data and knowledge have been examined. To deal with this structure, an object-based image analysis (OBIA) approach has been assessed in the destabilized Blue Nile region of Sudan as a potential solution to gather the required information for future forest planning and decision making. Moreover, the spatial heterogeneity as well as the rapid changes observed in the region motivates the inspection for more efficient, flexible and accurate methods to update the desired information. An OBIA approach has been proposed as an alternative analysis framework that can mitigate the deficiency associated with the pixel-based approach. In this sense, the study examines the most popular pixel-based maximum likelihood classifier, as an example of the behavior of spectral classifier toward respective data and regional specifics. In contrast, the OBIA approach analyzes remotely sensed data by incorporating expert analyst knowledge and complimentary ancillary data in a way that somehow simulates human intelligence for image interpretation based on the real-world representation of the features. As the segment is the basic processing unit, various combinations of segmentation criteria were tested to separate similar spectral values into groups of relatively homogeneous pixels. At the categorical subtraction level, rules were developed and optimum features were extracted for each particular class. Two methods were allocated (i.e. Rule Based (RB) and Nearest Neighbour (NN) Classifier) to assign segmented objects to their corresponding classes. Moreover, the study attempts to answer the questions whether OBIA is inherently more precise at fine spatial resolution than at coarser resolution, and how both pixel-based and OBIA approaches can be compared regarding relative accuracy in function of spatial resolution. As anticipated, this work emphasizes that the OBIA approach is can be proposed as an advanced solution particulary for high resolution imagery, since the accuracies were improved at the different scales applied compare with those of pixel-based approach. Meanwhile, the results achieved by the two approaches are consistently high at a finer RapidEye spatial resolution, and much significantly enhanced with OBIA. Since the change in LU/LC is rapid and the region is heterogeneous as well as the data vary regarding the date of acquisition and data source, this motivated the implementation of post-classification change detection rather than radiometric transformation methods. Based on thematic LU/LC maps, series of optimized algorithms have been developed to depict the dynamics in LU/LC entities. Therefore, detailed change “from-to” information classes as well as changes statistics were produced. Furthermore, the produced change maps were assessed, which reveals that the accuracy of the change maps is consistently high. Aggregated to the community-level, social survey of household data provides a comprehensive perspective additionally to EO data. The predetermined hot spots of degraded and successfully recovered areas were investigated. Thus, the study utilized a well-designed questionnaire to address the factors affecting land-cover dynamics and the possible solutions based on local community's perception. At the operational structural forest stand level, the rationale for incorporating these analyses are to offer a semi-automatic OBIA metrics estimates from which forest attribute is acquired through automated segmentation algorithms at the level of delineated tree crowns or clusters of crowns. Correlation and regression analyses were applied to identify the relations between a wide range of spectral and textural metrics and the field derived forest attributes. The acquired results from the OBIA framework reveal strong relationships and precise estimates. Furthermore, the best fitted models were cross-validated with an independent set of field samples, which revealed a high degree of precision. An important question is how the spatial resolution and spectral range used affect the quality of the developed model this was also discussed based on the different sensors examined. To conclude, the study reveals that the OBIA has proven capability as an efficient and accurate approach for gaining knowledge about the land features, whether at the operational forest structural attributes or categorical LU/LC level. Moreover, the methodological framework exhibits a potential solution to attain precise facts and figures about the change dynamics and its driving forces. / Da das Waldressourcenmanagement hierarchisch strukturiert ist, beschäftigt sich die vorliegende Arbeit mit der natürlichen Waldbedeckung auf verschiedenen Abstraktionsebenen, das heißt insbesondere mit der Ebene der kategorischen Landnutzung / Landbedeckung (LU/LC) sowie mit der kontinuierlichen empirischen Abschätzung auf lokaler operativer Ebene. Da zurzeit kein Sensor die Anforderungen aller Ebenen der Bewertung von Waldressourcen und von Multisource-Bildmaterialien (d.h. RapidEye, TERRA ASTER und LANDSAT TM) erfüllen kann, wurden zusätzlich andere Formen von Daten und Wissen untersucht und in die Arbeit mit eingebracht. Es wurde eine objekt-basierte Bildanalyse (OBIA) in einer destabilisierten Region des Blauen Nils im Sudan eingesetzt, um nach möglichen Lösungen zu suchen, erforderliche Informationen für die zukünftigen Waldplanung und die Entscheidungsfindung zu sammeln. Außerdem wurden die räumliche Heterogenität, sowie die sehr schnellen Änderungen in der Region untersucht. Dies motiviert nach effizienteren, flexibleren und genaueren Methoden zu suchen, um die gewünschten aktuellen Informationen zu erhalten. Das Konzept von OBIA wurde als Substitution-Analyse-Rahmen vorgeschlagen, um die Mängel vom früheren pixel-basierten Konzept abzumildern. In diesem Sinne untersucht die Studie die beliebtesten Maximum-Likelihood-Klassifikatoren des pixel-basierten Konzeptes als Beispiel für das Verhalten der spektralen Klassifikatoren in dem jeweiligen Datenbereich und der Region. Im Gegensatz dazu analysiert OBIA Fernerkundungsdaten durch den Einbau von Wissen des Analytikers sowie kostenlose Zusatzdaten in einer Art und Weise, die menschliche Intelligenz für die Bildinterpretation als eine reale Darstellung der Funktion simuliert. Als ein Segment einer Basisverarbeitungseinheit wurden verschiedene Kombinationen von Segmentierungskriterien getestet um ähnliche spektrale Werte in Gruppen von relativ homogenen Pixeln zu trennen. An der kategorische Subtraktionsebene wurden Regeln entwickelt und optimale Eigenschaften für jede besondere Klasse extrahiert. Zwei Verfahren (Rule Based (RB) und Nearest Neighbour (NN) Classifier) wurden zugeteilt um die segmentierten Objekte der entsprechenden Klasse zuzuweisen. Außerdem versucht die Studie die Fragen zu beantworten, ob OBIA in feiner räumlicher Auflösung grundsätzlich genauer ist als eine gröbere Auflösung, und wie beide, das pixel-basierte und das OBIA Konzept sich in einer relativen Genauigkeit als eine Funktion der räumlichen Auflösung vergleichen lassen. Diese Arbeit zeigt insbesondere, dass das OBIA Konzept eine fortschrittliche Lösung für die Bildanalyse ist, da die Genauigkeiten - an den verschiedenen Skalen angewandt - im Vergleich mit denen der Pixel-basierten Konzept verbessert wurden. Unterdessen waren die berichteten Ergebnisse der feineren räumlichen Auflösung nicht nur für die beiden Ansätze konsequent hoch, sondern durch das OBIA Konzept deutlich verbessert. Die schnellen Veränderungen und die Heterogenität der Region sowie die unterschiedliche Datenherkunft haben dazu geführt, dass die Umsetzung von Post-Klassifizierungs- Änderungserkennung besser geeignet ist als radiometrische Transformationsmethoden. Basierend auf thematische LU/LC Karten wurden Serien von optimierten Algorithmen entwickelt, um die Dynamik in LU/LC Einheiten darzustellen. Deshalb wurden für Detailänderung "von-bis"-Informationsklassen sowie Veränderungsstatistiken erstellt. Ferner wurden die erzeugten Änderungskarten bewertet, was zeigte, dass die Genauigkeit der Änderungskarten konstant hoch ist. Aggregiert auf die Gemeinde-Ebene bieten Sozialerhebungen der Haushaltsdaten eine umfassende zusätzliche Sichtweise auf die Fernerkundungsdaten. Die vorher festgelegten degradierten und erfolgreich wiederhergestellten Hot Spots wurden untersucht. Die Studie verwendet einen gut gestalteten Fragebogen um Faktoren die die Dynamik der Änderung der Landbedeckung und mögliche Lösungen, die auf der Wahrnehmung der Gemeinden basieren, anzusprechen. Auf der Ebene des operativen strukturellen Waldbestandes wird die Begründung für die Einbeziehung dieser Analysen angegeben um semi-automatische OBIA Metriken zu schätzen, die aus dem Wald-Attribut durch automatisierte Segmentierungsalgorithmen in den Baumkronen abgegrenzt oder Cluster von Kronen Ebenen erworben wird. Korrelations- und Regressionsanalysen wurden angewandt, um die Beziehungen zwischen einer Vielzahl von spektralen und strukturellen Metriken und den aus den Untersuchungsgebieten abgeleiteten Waldattributen zu identifizieren. Die Ergebnisse des OBIA Rahmens zeigen starke Beziehungen und präzise Schätzungen. Die besten Modelle waren mit einem unabhängigen Satz von kreuz-validierten Feldproben ausgestattet, welche hohe Genauigkeiten ergaben. Eine wichtige Frage ist, wie die räumliche Auflösung und die verwendete Bandbreite die Qualität der entwickelten Modelle auch auf der Grundlage der verschiedenen untersuchten Sensoren beeinflussen. Schließlich zeigt die Studie, dass OBIA in der Lage ist, als ein effizienter und genauer Ansatz Kenntnisse über die Landfunktionen zu erlangen, sei es bei operativen Attributen der Waldstruktur oder auch auf der kategorischen LU/LC Ebene. Außerdem zeigt der methodischen Rahmen eine mögliche Lösung um präzise Fakten und Zahlen über die Veränderungsdynamik und ihre Antriebskräfte zu ermitteln.

Risks and uncertainties are unavoidable in agriculture in Sudan, due to its dependence on climatic factors and to the imperfect nature of the agricultural decisions and policies attributed to land cover and land use changes that occur. The current study was conducted in the Gash Agricultural Scheme (GAS) - Kassala State, as a semi-arid land in eastern Sudan. The scheme has been established to contribute to the rural development, to help stability of the nomadic population in eastern Sudan, particularly the local population around the Gash river areas, and to facilitate utilizing the river flood in growing cotton and other cash crops. In the last decade, the scheme production has declined, because of drought periods, which hit the region, sand invasion and the spread of invasive mesquite trees, in addition to administrative negligence. These have resulted also in poor agricultural productivity and the displacement of farmers away from the scheme area. Recently, the scheme is heavily disturbed by human intervention in many aspects. Consequently, resources of cultivated land have shrunk and declined during the period of the study, which in turn have led to dissatisfaction and increasing failure of satisfying increasing farmer’s income and demand for local consumption. Remote sensing applications and geospatial techniques have played a key role in studying different types of hazards whether they are natural or manmade. Multi-temporal satellite data combined with ancillary data were used to monitor, analyze and to assess land use and land cover (LULC) changes and the impact of land degradation on the scheme production, which provides the managers and decision makers with current and improved data for the purposes of proper administration of natural resources in the GAS. Information about patterns of LULC changes through time in the GAS is not only important for the management and planning, but also for a better understanding of human dimensions of environmental changes at regional scale. This study attempts to map and assess the impacts of LULC change and land degradation in GAS during a period of 38 years from 1972-2010. Dry season multi-temporal satellite imagery collected by different sensor systems was selected such as three cloud-free Landsat (MSS 1972, TM 1987 and ETM+ 1999) and ASTER (2010) satellite imagery. This imagery was geo-referenced and radiometrically and atmospherically calibrated using dark object subtraction (DOS). Two approaches of classification (object-oriented and pixel-based) were applied for classification and comparison of LULC. In addition, the study compares between the two approaches to determine which one is more compatible for classification of LULC of the GAS. The pixel-based approach performed slightly better than the object-oriented approach in the classification of LULC in the study area. Application of multi-temporal remote sensing data proved to be successful for the identification and mapping of LULC into five main classes as follows: woodland dominated by dense mesquite trees, grass and shrubs dominated by less dense mesquite trees, bare and cultivated land, stabilized fine sand and mobile sand. After image enhancement successful classification of imagery was achieved using pixel and object based approaches as well as subsequent change detection (image differencing and change matrix), supported by classification accuracy assessments and post-classification. Comparison of LULC changes shows that the land cover of GAS has changed dramatically during the investigated period. It has been discovered that more significant of LULC change processes occurred during the second studied period (1987 to 1999) than during the first period (1972-1987). In the second period nearly half of bare and cultivated lands was changed from 41372.74 ha (20.22 %) in 1987 to 28020.80 ha (13.60 %) in 1999, which was mainly due to the drought that hit the region during the mentioned period. However, the results revealed a drastic loss of bare and cultivated land, equivalent to more than 40% during the entire period (1972-2010). Throughout the whole period of study, drought and invasion of both mesquite trees and sand were responsible for the loss of more than 40% of the total productive lands. Change vector analysis (CVA) as a useful approach was applied for estimating change detection in both magnitude and direction of change. The promising approach of multivariate alteration detection (MAD) and subsequent maximum autocorrelation factor (MAD/MAF) transformation was used to support change detection via assessment of maximum correlation between the transformed variates and the specific original image bands related to specific land cover classes. However, both CVA and MAD/MAD strongly prove the fact that bare and cultivated land have dramatically changed and decreased continuously during the studied period. Both CVA and MAD/MAD demonstrate adequate potentials for monitoring, detecting, identifying and mapping the changes. Moreover, this research demonstrated that CVA and MAD/MAF are superior in providing qualitative details about the nature of all kinds of change. Vegetation indices (VI) such as normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), soil-adjusted vegetation index (SAVI), modified adjusted vegetation index (MSAVI) and grain soil index (GSI) were applied to measure the quantitative characterization of temporal and spatial vegetation cover patterns and change. All indices remain very sensitive to structure variation of LULC. The results reveal that the NDVI is more effective for detecting the amount and status of the vegetation cover in the study area than SAVI, MSAVI and GSI. Therefore, it can be stated that NDVI can be used as a response variable to identify drought disturbance and land degradation in semi-arid land such as the GAS area. Results of detecting vegetation cover observed by using SAVI were found to be more reasonable than using MSAVI, although MSAVI reduces the background of bare soil better than SAVI. GSI proves high efficiency in determining the different types of surface soils, and producing a change map of top soil grain size, which is useful in assessment of land degradation in the study area. The linkage between socio-economic data and remotely sensed data was applied to determine the relationships between the different factors derived and to analyze the reasons for change in LULC and land degradation and its effects in the study area. The results indicate a strong relationship between LULC derived from remotely sensed data and the influencing socioeconomic variables. The results obtained from analyzing socioeconomic data confirm the findings of remote sensing data analysis, which assure that the decline and degradation of agricultural land is a result of further spread of mesquite trees and of increased invasion of sand during the study period. High livestock density and overgrazing, drought, invasion of sand, spread of invasive mesquite trees, overexploitation of land, improper management, and population growth were considered as the main direct factors responsible for degradation in the study area.

Beaver Creek is an impaired streams that is not supporting its designated use for recreation due to Escherichia coli (E.coli), and sediment. To address this problem, this thesis was divided into two studies. The first study explored changes in Land Use Land Cover (LULC), and its impact on surface water quality. Changes in E.coli load between 1997-2001 and 2014-2018 were analyzed. Also, Landsat data of 2001, and 2018 were examined in Terrset 18.31. Mann-Whitney test only showed a significant reduction in E.coli for one site. Negative correlation was established between E.coli load, and Developed LULC, Forest LULC, and Cultivated LULC. The second study modelled discharge for Beaver Creek watershed using HEC-HMS. This study simulated discharge in an upstream sub-watershed of Beaver Creek, and the full Beaver Creek with a Nash-Sutcliffe of 0.007, and R2 0.20. Sub-basins with high discharge were identified for further examination for possible high sediment load.

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The unprecedented growth of urban areas all over the globe is nowadays maybe most apparent in China having undergone rapid urbanization since the late 1970s. The need for new residential, commercial and industrial areas leads to new urban regions challenging sustainable development and the maintenance and creation of a high living standard as well as the preservation of ecological functionality. Therefore, timely and reliable information on land-cover changes and their consequent environmental impacts are needed to support sustainable urban development.The objective of this research is the analysis of land-cover changes, especially the development of urban areas in terms of speed, magnitude and resulting implications for the natural and rural environment using satellite imagery and the quantification of environmental impacts with the concepts of ecosystem services and landscape metrics. The study areas are the cities of Shanghai and Stockholm and the three highly-urbanized Chinese regions Jing-Jin-Ji, the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta. The analyses are based on classification of optical satellite imagery (Landsat TM/ETM+ and HJ-1A/B) over the past two decades. The images were first co-registered and mosaicked, whereupon GLCM texture features were generated and tasseled cap transformations performed to improve class separabilities. The mosaics were classified with a pixel-based SVM and a random forest decision tree ensemble classifier. Based on the classification results, two urbanization indices were derived that indicate both the absolute amount of urban land and the speed of urban development. The spatial composition and configuration of the landscape was analysed by landscape metrics. Environmental impacts were quantified by attributing ecosystem service values to the classifications and the observation of value changes over time. ivThe results from the comparative study between Shanghai and Stockholm show a decrease in all natural land-cover classes and agricultural areas, whereas urban areas increased by approximately 120% in Shanghai, nearly ten times as much as in Stockholm where no significant land-cover changes other than a 12% urban expansion could be observed. From the landscape metrics analysis results, it appears that fragmentation in both study regions occurred mainly due to the growth of high density built-up areas in previously more natural environments, while the expansion of low density built-up areas was for the most part in conjunction with pre-existing patches. Urban growth resulted in ecosystem service value losses of ca. 445 million US dollars in Shanghai, mostly due to a decrease in natural coastal wetlands. In Stockholm, a 4 million US dollar increase in ecosystem service values could be observed that can be explained by the maintenance and development of urban green spaces. Total urban growth in Shanghai was 1,768 km2 compared to 100 km2 in Stockholm. Regarding the comparative study of urbanization in the three Chinese regions, a total increase in urban land of about 28,000 km2 could be detected with a simultaneous decrease in ecosystem service values corresponding to ca. 18.5 billion Chinese Yuan Renminbi. The speed and relative urban growth in Jing-Jin-Ji was highest, followed by the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta. The increase in urban land occurred predominately at the expense of cropland. Wetlands decreased due to land reclamation in all study areas. An increase in landscape complexity in terms of land-cover composition and configuration could be detected. Urban growth in Jing-Jin-Ji contributed most to the decrease in ecosystem service values, closely followed by the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta. / <p>QC 20130610</p>