ABSTRACT The definition of economic voting by Lewis-Beck indicates constituency can cast a ballot for the benefit of the ruling party while they definitely confirm economic performance by past; vice versa. The study also expresses Western democratic countries periodically hold the Election of Central Administration Leading Cadre and the Legislative Election; furthermore, it shows in response to economic voting during constituency go into deciding by ballot at the meantime. Seeing that documents of the research in Taiwan of voting behavior among constituency much focus on national identification, political party and candidate characteristics; the other way round, less focus on economic performance or economic governance ability. It is unworthy truth for Taiwan Economy to be no longer wonderingly splendid manifestation. Therefore, this study longs for by way of observing materials and data in poll centers behind the President Election in 1996, 2000 as well as the Legislative Election in 1998, 2001. Consequently, it searches out whether economic voting manifestation for Taiwan constituency; it awaits to comprehend if the Economy is one of main variable while voting by constituency in Taiwan? Moreover, it attempts to observing constituency to be part of which social background characteristics. On the basis of the above-mentioned analysis, this study comes at something: I. Economic evaluation is indeed an influential factor; due to unique historical culture background, the crucial point in voting still inferiors to identification of political party and unity-independence position. Nevertheless, candidates among latterly national elections propose unexceptionable policy to lure constituency; newspapers and mass media describe prosperity fluctuation by a wide margin. The effect of economic issues is more and more significant in future election. It may observe continually. II. The study detects low-education-level constituency easily possess economic voting behavior than high-education-level constituency, but it is not fit in with foreign relevant economic voting theory - it is worthy of probing into variations between Taiwan and foreign countries. Over and above, owning-occupation constituency easily possesses economic voting behavior than non-owning-occupation constituency. It hopes adding the gender and age factors in future research. Key Words: Economic Evaluation, Voting Behavior, the Legislative Election, the President Election, Multinomial Logit Model

本文旨在研究政治人物或政黨的表現如何影響選民對立法委員進行選舉課責。課責是民主政治運作的重要基石，而選舉機制則是體現政治課責最直接的制度設計。現有選舉課責研究多數聚焦於行政首長的表現如何影響選民的投票選擇，以立法委員選舉為對象的選舉課責研究相對顯得不足，且這些研究或者是在舊選制的架構內進行分析，或是旨在探索選民的分裂投票行為，未見新選制下的選舉課責研究。 本研究以2016年新北市與臺中市的立法委員選舉為例，分析選民對總統、市長、政黨、政黨立委與區域立委五種層面的表現評價如何影響其立委投票對象。企圖了解選民是否真的會因為現任者表現不佳而投給在野黨、或因滿意現任者表現而投給執政黨？而當不同層面的表現評價發生衝突時，哪一項的表現評價影響力更大？並藉由兩個不同黨籍的直轄市長，來解析過去研究未曾在立委選舉研究中觸及的地方首長施政表現因素會如何影響選民的投票抉擇。 本研究發現，選民在區域與不分區立委選舉中均會以市長與區域立委的表現作為課責依據，而政黨立委表現評價僅對區域立委選舉有影響，政黨表現評價及不分區名單印象則影響不分區立委選舉，至於過去研究認為會影響立委選舉結果的總統施政表現評價，反而在統計模型中未達顯著水準。這樣的結果，除了立委與政黨本身表現在各自選票上的影響力外，更凸顯了地方首長的施政表現對於立委選舉的重要性，當總統與立委選舉合併舉辦後，立委選舉不再是總統的期中成績單，而是地方首長的期中成績單與現任者的期末成績單，被課責的對象包含了現任者本身（立委與政黨）與地方首長。這些研究發現與既有的研究提供一個重要的對照與補充，也希望這些發現能提供未來選舉課責與地方治理研究的助益。 / Accountability is the cornerstone for the operation of democracy, and election is the mechanism realizing political accountability. Most studies on electoral accountability focused on the influence of presidential performance at the national level while the influences of legislators themselves and local governments are less concerned.This essay explores how the performance of the president, the legislators, the local governments, and the political parties influence electorate’s vote choice in the 2016 legislative elections in New Taipei City and Taichung City in Taiwan. Political accountability is operationalized as voter’s performance assessments of the president, the legislator, the city mayors, and the two major political parties. It is assumed that an electorate will be more likely to vote for the legislative candidate based on favorable assessments of her party’s president, legislators, city mayors, list of at-large candidates and overall party performance. The study finds that the performance of city mayors and the performance of (district as well at–large party list) legislators have exercised significant impact on voter’s choice. Meanwhile, voters’ assessment of political parties and impression of party list candidate will influence voter’s choice in the at-large legislative election. As for the evaluation of presidential performance which has been widely discussed in the literature, this essay finds only limited impact. As the elections for legislator and president are held concurrently, the impact of the presidential performance is overshadowed by the performance of local executives. These findings provide crucial comparison and supplementation with the previous studies of political accountability and offer valuable references for the future study of electoral accountability and local governance.

The paper analyzes the impact that preferential voting has had on elections and the party system, particularly in the case of Peru. It presents, in the first place, the issue of preferential voting as an element of the electoral system. Then, it continues with the study of the particular case of Peru, in which it indicates its origin, the mechanics it follows, the impact on the Parliament and its evaluation. / El artículo busca analizar el impacto que tiene y ha tenido el voto preferencial sobre los procesos electorales y el sistema de partidos, de manera particular en el caso peruano. Presenta en primera instancia, el tema del voto preferencial como elemento del sistema electoral, para continuar con su estudio en el caso particular de Perú en donde señala su origen, la mecánica que sigue, el impacto en el parlamento y su evaluación.

本研究以台灣地區（包括台北市、高雄市與台灣省）為範圍，鄉鎮市區為基本單元，1989年到1995年的立法委員選舉為標的，使用人文區位研究途徑，來分析區域發展與政黨競爭之間的關係。在代表政黨競爭的自變項上，分別以各政黨在立法委員選舉中的得票率競爭程度，以及各政黨的得票率為變數。至於描述區域發展的自變項上，主要可分成兩個部分。橫斷面上由自然區位因素（包括都市化程度、工商業場所單位經營狀況、藍領階級比例、年輕人口比例、外省人口比例），以及政治區位因素（包括決算補助比例、縣市票源凝聚程度、鄉鎮市區票源凝聚程度、縣市地方派系強度虛擬變項、鄉鎮市區派系強度虛擬變項）作為自變項。在縱剖面上，則以時間的虛擬變項作為自變項，以反映長期的影響因素。在以各政黨當屆立委得票率為依變項時，則再加入當屆省市議員與上屆立法委員各政黨的得票率，來測量選舉慣性的影響力。 此外，並分別由區分為三個集群的集群面，以及整體面來進行迴歸分析。 研究結果發現，在各模型中較為重要而顯著的變數都與假設方向一致。其中都市化程度、工商業場所單位經營狀況、年輕人口比例，以及縣市票源凝聚程度會升高政黨競爭程度；而決算補助比、鄉鎮市區票源凝聚程度，以及縣市級地方派系則會減弱政黨競爭程度。都市化程度、工商業場所單位經營狀況，以及縣市票源凝聚程度對國民黨得票率不利，而外省人口比例則由1992年之前的有利，轉向為1995年的不利；但決算補助比例、縣市級地方派系強，以及鄉鎮市區票源凝聚程度都對國民黨得票率有利。都市化程度、工商業場所單位經營狀況以及縣市票源凝聚程度對民進黨得票率有利；而外省人口比例、決算補助比，以及鄉鎮市區票源凝聚程度則對民進黨得票率不利。都市化程度、工商業場所單位經營狀況、外省人口比例，以及年輕人口比例，均對新黨得票率有利；決算補助比、鄉鎮市區票源凝聚程度，以及各級地方派系不論強弱，均對新黨得票率不利。 在合併時間序列的分析上，隨著時間的推演，政黨得票率競爭程度也隨之升高，同時對國民黨得票率愈來愈不利，而對民進黨得票率愈來愈有利。此外不論是對哪一個政黨的得票率來說，選舉慣性因素的影響力都相當顯著。不過不同選舉還是有所不同，以同類型的選舉影響較大。 另一方面，經由對R 值的觀察，我們也發現政治區位因素在多數的情況下，其解釋力會大於自然區位因素。同時區位因素最適合用以解釋新黨的得票率，不過整體而言多數模型都有解釋力愈來愈高的趨勢，顯示近年來區域發展因素對於政黨競爭的解釋力較過去提升不少。 最後，透過區分集群的方式，有助於突顯出特定區域類型，以表現出其中更為強烈或更為微弱的，區域發展與政黨競爭之間的關係。可避免僅就整體面進行分析，使這些集群的特性消失，反倒不易瞭解區域發展與政黨競爭之間的真正關係的缺失。 第一章　緒論 壹、政黨競爭與選舉 貳、台灣的選舉競爭：國民黨的控制與反對黨的興起 參、選舉研究：個體或總體 肆、區域與區域發展 伍、台灣的區域發展：進步但不均衡 陸、區域發展與政黨競爭 第二章 文獻檢閱 壹、區域發展與人文區位指標 貳、選舉競爭與總體資料研究 參、整合性研究的需要 第三章 理論架構與研究方法 壹、研究範圍與內容 貳、研究架構與假設 參、變數建構與資料來源 肆、統計方法 第四章 變數的典型相關與鄉鎮市區的集群分析 壹、典型相關分析 貳、集群分析 參、依變項在整體面與集群面上之觀察 肆、討論與小結 第五章 區域發展因素對政黨競爭的影響－集群面的觀察 壹、第一集群的分析結果 貳、第二集群的分析結果 參、第三集群的分析結果 肆、討論與小結 第六章 區域發展因素對政黨競爭的影響－整體面的觀察 壹、影響政黨得票率競爭程度的區域發展因素研究 貳、影響政黨得票率的區域發展因素研究 參、整體面與集群面的比較 參、討論與小結 第七章 結論 壹、研究回顧與成果 貳、檢討與建議 參考書目 附錄一 國內以人文區位指標進行區域發展研究的相關論文列表 附錄二 國內以人文區位途徑進行選舉研究的相關論文列表 附錄三 各變數之相關係數、平均數與標準差 附錄四 各迴歸分析詳細列表 附錄五 各變數資料 / The thesis is an ecological analysis of competition between major parties (the KMT, DPP, and NP) in the 1989, 1992, and 1995 elections for Taiwan's Legislative Yuan. The unit of analysis is the "Hsiang" (rural township), "Chen" (urban township), "Shih" (county city), or "Ch'u" (precict), and we separate all of the local area units into three clusters to obtain the ecological determinants of the degree of competition between major parties. We explore the relative influence of ecological conditions of local units on the election returns over the six year period. The results of regression analysis indicate that major significant variables are in accordance with theoretical assumptions. Urbanization, development of industry and commerce, high percentage of youth in the population, and high degree of voting consistency in a county can raise the degree of competition between major parties, but a high percentage of the budget from subsidies, law degree of voting consistency in a township, and strong county factions can reduce it. Urbanization, development of industry and commerce, and degree of voting consistency in a county have influence on the percentage of the vote lost by the KMT's candidates, and percentage of the budget from subsidies and strong local county factions influence the percentage of the vote won by the KMT's candidates. A high percentage of mainlanders contributes to the KMT's vote share before 1992, but becomes disadvantageous in 1995. Urbanization, development of industry and commerce, and degree of voting consistency in a county are beneficial to the DPP, but a high percentage of mainlanders, a high percentage of the budget from subsidies, and a high degree of voting consistency in a township are harmful to it. Urbanization, development of industry and commerce, a high percentage of mainlanders, and a high percentage of youth in the population have a positive influence on the NP's vote, but a high percentage of the budget from subsidies, a high degree of voting consistency in a township, and strong local factions have a negative influence towards it. Longitudinal analyses find that the time factor intensifies the degree of competition between major parties in favor of the DPP. Electoral inertia, or the retrospective effects of the last election, has a powerful influence on the vote share of the KMT, DPP, and NP. Also the same type of elections has more influence than different types. Finally, through clusters analyses we can identify various types of groups which reveal various relationships between development of regions and competition between major parties.