This thesis treats with the theory, interpretation and application of the Discrete Choice Models. The theoretical part contains the Fitting the Logistic Regression Model, Testing for the Significance of the Coefficients, Testing for the Significance of the Model. The Multiple Logistic Regression is mentioned too. The model was applied to interview data from the International research called Reflex.

Dans la conjoncture économique actuelle un nombre croissant de firmes se trouvent confrontées à des difficultés économiques et financières qui peuvent, dans certains cas, conduire à la faillite. En principe, les difficultés ne surviennent pas brutalement, en effet, avant qu’une entreprise soit déclarée en faillite, elle est confrontée à des difficultés financières de gravité croissante : défaut de paiement d’une dette, insolvabilité temporaire, pénurie de liquidité, etc. L’identification des causes de la défaillance n’est pas évidente, puisqu’on ne saurait énumérer de manière limitative les facteurs qui la provoquent. Les causes sont multiples et leur cumul compromet d’autant plus la survie de l’entreprise. L’importance de ce phénomène et son impact sur l’ensemble de l’économie justifie le besoin de le comprendre, l’expliquer en analysant les causes et les origines. L’objectif de notre étude est de classer les entreprises en difficulté selon leur degré de viabilité et de comprendre les causes de la dégradation de leur situation. Nous effectuerons une comparaison entre trois modèles (Analyse discriminante linéaire, le modèle Logit et la régression PLS) ce qui nous permettra à partir des taux de bon classement obtenus, de choisir le meilleur modèle tout en précisant l’origine et les causes de ces défaillances. / In actual economic situation an increasing number of firms are facing economic and financial difficulties which can, in certain cases, drive to failure. In principle, difficulties do not happen suddenly, in effect, before a firm is declared bankrupt, it is confronted to financial difficulties of growing seriousness: default in payment of a debt, temporary insolvency, scarceness of liquidity, etc. Identifying the causes of the failure is not obvious, since one can not exhaustively enumerate the factors that cause it. The causes are multiple and overlapping compromise even more the company's survival. The importance of this phenomenon and its impact on the overall economy justifies the need to understand, explain it by analyzing the causes and origins The aim of our study is to classify firms in trouble according to their degree of viability and to understand the causes of the deterioration of their situation. We will do a comparison between three models (linear differential Analysis, the model Logit and decline PLS) what will allow us from the rates of good classification acquired, to choose the best model while specifying origin and reasons of these faults.

Attirer les investissements directs étrangers (IDE) est l'une des préoccupations majeures des pouvoirs publics compte tenu des effets bénéfiques engendrés par leur présence dans un territoire donné. Afin d'inciter aux investissements ces pays ont adopté plusieurs mesures telles que l'investissement en capital humain. Cette thèse examiner l'importance du capital humain en tant que déterminant des investissements directs étrangers. Les données issues d'une enquête menée auprès d'un échantillon de 52 entreprises à participation étrangères implantées en Tunisie nous permettent, à l'aide d'un modèle économétrique de type logit, d'estimer la probabilité de réaliser un investissement étranger sous forme de création d'une nouvelle filiale afin d'identifier les facteurs d'attractivité ayant une dimension qualitative. Les résultats montrent qu'en dehors de la proximité géographique des pays de l'union européenne, d'un bon marché et de la présence d'un tissu local aussi bien d'entreprises du même secteur que d'autres secteurs, la décision d'installer une nouvelle filiale est liée positivement et significativement à la disponibilité d'une main-d'œuvre qualifiée. / Attracting Foreign Direct Investrnents (FDI) is one of the primary concerns of the public authorities on account of their positive effects on a given territory. In order to activate investments, those countries have adopted several measures such as investment in human capital. This doctoral thesis analyses the importance of the human capital as a determinant of the Foreign Direct Investments. A survey was led with a sample of 52 companies with foreign participation implanted in Tunisia. By means of an economic model of type logit, the data that have arisen from that survey allow us to estimate the probability of the realization of a foreign investment in the form of creation of a new subsidiary in order to identify the factors of attractiveness that have a qualitative dimension. The results show that - except the geographical nearness of the countries of the European Union, a good market and the presence of a local network, the decision to establish a new subsidiary is connected positively and significantly to the availability of a qualified workforce.

This diploma thesis examines scientific articles to determine if there is an agree-ment in literature on the topic of relationship between economic growth and en-vironment. This investigation uses meta-analysis to explore the systematic varia-tion across environmental Kuznets curve studies to better understand the specific factors that affect this relationship. Binomial and multinomial logit models are performed. Final results stimulate an ongoing discussion of not discovering any unity in this area.

No description available.

The purpose of this thesis was to evaluate the impact of dynamic message signs (DMS) on the Orlando-Orange County Expressway Authority (OOCEA) toll road network using the Post-Deployment DMS Survey analysis. DMS are electronic traffic signs used on roadways to give travelers information about travel times, traffic congestion, accidents, disabled vehicles, AMBER alerts, and special events. The particular DMS referred to in this study are large rectangular signs installed over the travel lanes and these are not the portable trailer mount signs. The OOCEA has added twenty-nine fixed DMS to their toll road network from 2006-2008. At the time of the post-deployment survey, a total of twenty-nine DMS were up and running on the OOCEA toll road network. Since most of the travelers on the OOCEA toll roads were from Orange, Osceola, and Seminole counties, this study was limited to these counties. This thesis documents the results for the post-deployment survey analysis. The instrument used to analyze the travelers' perception of DMS was a survey that utilized computer aided telephone interview. The post-deployment survey was conducted during the month of May, 2008. Questions pertaining to the acknowledgement of DMS on the OOCEA toll roads, satisfaction with travel information provided on the network, formatting of the messages, satisfaction with different types of messages, diversion questions (Revealed and Stated preferences), and classification/socioeconomic questions (such as age, education, most traveled toll road, county of residence, and length of residency) were asked to the respondents. This thesis is using results of the multinomial logit model for diversion of traffic. This model takes into account the different diversion decisions from the post development survey (stay vs. divert all the way vs. divert and come back vs. abandon trip) and explains the differences in the diversion behavior. Drivers that use SunPass or Epass tend to stay on the toll road during unexpected congestion. Frequent SR 408 users are more likely to divert and stay off the toll road and frequent SR 417 users are more likely to divert and get back on the toll road. Drivers whose stated preference was to divert off the toll road were more likely to do the same in the real world. However, not too many of the respondents were likely to abandon their trips in the real world even if they said they would in a hypothetical congestion scenario. Users of 511 were more likely to divert and get back on the toll road or abandon their trips due to unexpected congestion. OOCEA can use this study to concentrate on keeping their toll roads more attractive during unexpected congestion to keep drivers from diverting all the way or abandoning their trips. For example, better incident management in clearing accidents more efficiently (thereby decreasing delay) and encouraging the use of SunPass or EPass could help drivers stay than divert or abandon their trip. This thesis also used ordered logit model for satisfaction. This model explains the levels of magnitude of satisfaction with traveler information on OOCEA toll roads. Drivers who acquired traveler information from DMS were less likely to be dissatisfied with traveler information provided on toll roads than other respondents. Drivers who were satisfied with accuracy and information on hazard warnings on DMS were more likely to be satisfied with information provided on toll roads than other respondents. This thesis provides a microscopic insight on the driver behavior on toll roads. This thesis expands the diversion and satisfaction models from previous studies in a way that OOCEA can identify specific groups of drivers related to a given response behavior (i.e., diverts off toll roads or dissatisfied with traveler information). Such analysis can be conducted in the future in the same study area or replicated in other areas to quantify the effects of individual and choice related attributes on choice behavior.

The aim of this study was to develop a framework to model travel choice behavior in order to estimate intercity travel demand at nation-level in the United States. Nested and mixed logit models were developed to study national-level intercity transportation in the United States. A separate General Aviation airport choice model to estimates General Aviation person-trips and number of aircraft operations though more than 3000 airports was also developed. The combination of the General Aviation model and the logit models gives the capability to estimate a full spectrum of intercity travel demand in the United States. The logit models were calibrated using a nationwide revealed preference survey (1995 American Travel Survey). Separate models were developed for business and non-business trip purposes. An airport choice model is integrated into the mode choice model to estimate both the market share between any origin-destination pair and other modes of transportation, and the market share split between airports associated with the origin-destination pairs. The explanatory variables used in the utility functions of the models are travel time, travel cost, and traveler's household income. The logit models are used to estimate the market share of automobile and commercial air transportation between 3091 counties and 443 commercial service airports in the United States. The model was also used to estimate market share for on-demand air taxi services. Given an input county-to-county trip demand table, the models were used to estimate county-to-county travel demand by automobile and commercial airline between all counties and commercial service airports in the United States. The model has been integrated into a computer software framework called the Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM) that estimates nationwide intercity travel demand in the United States. / Ph. D.

京都大学 / 新制・論文博士 / 博士(農学) / 乙第13507号 / 論農博第2905号 / 新制||農||1095(附属図書館) / 学位論文||R4||N5407(農学部図書室) / (主査)准教授 沈 金虎, 教授 浅見 淳之, 教授 栗山 浩一 / 学位規則第4条第2項該当 / Doctor of Agricultural Science / Kyoto University / DFAM

Master of Science / Department of Agricultural Economics / John A. Fox / We designed a mail survey to investigate consumer choices between whole-grain and regular grain products. Consumption of whole-grain foods has been linked to numerous health benefits including reduced risk of heart disease, diabetes and obesity. The prevalence of obesity has increased in recent decades and has been shown to be negatively correlated with education levels and income. Data from the survey are used to investigate correlations between the likelihood of choosing whole-grain alternatives and various demographic and behavioral characteristics including an individual's Body Mass Index (BMI). We also investigate the impact on consumer choices of providing information about the health benefits of whole-grain foods. Results indicate that education level and the use of food labels are both positively correlated with the likelihood of choosing whole-grain foods. Provision of information about health benefits also had a positive impact on the likelihood of choosing a whole-grain over a conventional grain product, but given a low sample size in this study the effect was not statistically significant. Choices were found to be largely insensitive to changes in relative prices, and no correlation was found between BMI and the likelihood of choosing a whole-grain product.

Ingeniero Civil / Los modelos de elección discreta basados en utilidades o disposiciones a pagar han sido muy utilizados para representar el comportamiento de los consumidores en sistemas de Uso de Suelo y de Transporte. En este trabajo se desarrolla un modelo de elección que usa disposiciones a pagar para representar la elección en mercados de remate, donde los bienes se asignan a los mejores postores. Los modelos tradicionales no consideran el hecho de que estas funciones están siempre acotadas superiormente porque los consumidores tienen restricciones presupuestarias. Si bien se han generado enfoques para representar esta situación, estas son heurísticas solamente. En este trabajo se deduce de un modo riguroso un nuevo modelo de elección discreta binomial donde las funciones de valor son disposiciones a pagar acotadas superiormente. En particular, se obtiene una expresión analítica en el caso en que estas funciones son variables aleatorias idénticamente distribuidas Gumbel. Este modelo junto con incorporar en su formulación la influencia de la restricción presupuestaria, tiene la interesante propiedad de permitir estimar un número mayor de parámetros que en el caso del modelo Logit Binomial clásico. Junto con caracterizar este modelo, se probó empíricamente usando bases sintéticas que es posible estimar sus parámetros y que en muchos casos, entrega estimaciones más precisas que el modelo Logit Binomial tradicional.