L'objectif de la thèse est de développer des algorithmes de fusion de données recueillies à l’aide d'un réseau de capteurs sans fil afin de localiser plusieurs sources émettant un agent chimique ou biologique dans l'air. Ces capteurs détectent la concentration de la substance émise, transportée par advection et diffusion, au niveau de leurs positions et de communiquer cette information à un centre de traitement. L’information recueillie de façon collaborative est d'abord utilisée pour localiser les capteurs déployés au hasard et ensuite pour localiser les sources. Les applications comprennent, entre autres, la surveillance environnementale et la surveillance de sites sensibles ainsi que des applications de sécurité dans le cas d'une libération accidentelle ou intentionnelle d'un agent toxique. Toutefois, l'application considérée dans la thèse est celle de la détection et la localisation de mines terrestres. Dans cette approche, les mines sont considérées comme des sources émettrices de produits chimiques explosifs.La thèse comprend une contribution théorique où nous étendons l'algorithme de propagation de la croyance, un algorithme de fusion de données bien connu et largement utilisé pour l'estimation collaborative d'état dans les réseaux de capteurs, au cadre des méthodes à erreurs bornées. Le nouvel algorithme est testé sur le problème de l'auto-localisation dans les réseaux de capteurs statiques ainsi que l'application de suivi d'un objet mobile en utilisant un réseau de capteurs de distance. Autres contributions comprennent l'utilisation d'une approche probabiliste bayésienne avec des techniques d'analyse de données pour localiser un nombre inconnu de sources émettrices de vapeur. / The aim of the thesis is to develop fusion algorithms for data collected from a wireless sensor network in order to locate multiple sources emitting some chemical or biological agent in the air. These sensors detect the concentration of the emitted substance, transported by advection and diffusion, at their positions and communicate this information to a treatment center. The information collected in a collaborative manner is used first to locate the randomly deployed sensors and second to locate the sources. Applications include, amongst others, environmental monitoring and surveillance of sensitive sites as well as security applications in the case of an accidental or intentional release of a toxic agent. However, the application we consider in the thesis is that of landmine detection and localization. In this approach, the land mines are considered as sources emitting explosive chemicals. The thesis includes a theoretical contribution where we extend the Belief Propagation algorithm, a well-known data fusion algorithm that is widely used for collaborative state estimation in sensor networks, to the bounded error framework. The novel algorithm is tested on the self-localization problem in static sensor networks as well as the application of tracking a mobile object using a network of range sensors. Other contributions include the use of a Bayesian probabilistic approach along with data analysis techniques to locate an unknown number of vapor emitting sources.

L’objectif de cette thèse est de construire un framework qui représente les incertitudes aléatoires et épistémiques basé sur les approches probabilistes et des théories d’incertain, de comparer les méthodes et de trouver les propres applications sur les grands systèmes avec événement rares. Dans la thèse, une méthode de normalité asymptotique a été proposée avec simulation de Monte Carlo dans les cas binaires ainsi qu'un modèle semi-Markovien dans les cas de systèmes multi-états dynamiques. On a aussi appliqué la théorie d’ensemble aléatoire comme un modèle de base afin d’évaluer la fiabilité et les autres indicateurs de performance dans les systèmes binaires et multi-états avec technique bootstrap. / Our research objective is to build frameworks representing both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties based on probabilistic approach and uncertainty approaches and to compare these methods and find the proper applicatin for these methods in large scale systems with rare event. In this thesis, an asymptotic normality method is proposed with Monte Carlo simulation in case of binary systems as well as semi-Markov model for cases of dynamic multistate system. We also apply random set as a basic model to evaluate system reliability and other performance indices on binary and multistate systems with bootstrap technique.

Les travaux présentés dans ce mémoire de thèse concernent le développement et la mise en oeuvre d'un algorithme de filtrage particulaire pour le recalage de la navigation inertielle par mesures altimétriques. Le filtre développé, le MRPF (Mixture Regularized Particle Filter), s'appuie à la fois sur la modélisation de la densité a posteriori sous forme de mélange fini, sur le filtre particulaire régularisé ainsi que sur l'algorithme mean-shift clustering. Nous proposons également une extension du MRPF au filtre particulaire Rao-Blackwellisé appelée MRBPF (Mixture Rao-Blackwellized Particle Filter). L'objectif est de proposer un filtre adapté à la gestion des multimodalités dues aux ambiguïtés de terrain. L'utilisation des modèles de mélange fini permet d'introduire un algorithme d'échantillonnage d'importance afin de générer les particules dans les zones d'intérêt. Un second axe de recherche concerne la mise au point d'outils de contrôle d'intégrité de la solution particulaire. En nous appuyant sur la théorie de la détection de changement, nous proposons un algorithme de détection séquentielle de la divergence du filtre. Les performances du MRPF, MRBPF, et du test d'intégrité sont évaluées sur plusieurs scénarios de recalage altimétrique / This thesis deals with the development of a mixture particle filtering algorithm for inertial navigation update via radar-altimeter measurements. This particle filter, the so-called MRPF (Mixture Regularized Particle Filter), combines mixture modelling of the posterior density, the regularized particle filter and the mean-shift clustering algorithm. A version adapted to the Rao-Blackwellized particle filter, the MRBPF (Mixture Rao-Blackwellized Particle Filter), is also presented. The main goal is to design a filter well suited to multimodal densities caused by terrain amibiguity. The use of mixture models enables us to introduce an alternative importance sampling procedure aimed at proposing samples in the high likelihood regions of the state space. A second research axis is concerned with the development of particle filtering integrity monitoring tools. A novel particle filter divergence sequential detector, based on change detection theory, is presented. The performances of the MRPF, MRBPF and the divergence detector are reported on several terrain navigation scenarios

Orientador: Sandro Guedes de Oliveira / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Física Gleb Wataghin / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-26T18:12:34Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Vasconcellos_HerminianeLuizade_M.pdf: 4238996 bytes, checksum: 69965aad9e9748e349be6894c6ebf385 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015 / Resumo: Este trabalho baseia-se na analise de descritores de heterogeneidade de dose atraves de programas desenvolvidos em linguagem C++ com base na estatistica de Poisson e probabilidades de ocorrencia de heterogeneidade fundamentadas na teoria de percolacao. A finalidade deste trabalho e obter descritores que possam ser uteis no estudo de efeitos biologicos da radiacao caracteristicos de situacoes em que ha heterogeneidade de dose. Os suportes iniciais deste trabalho se encontram em um relatorio da International Comission on Radiation Units and Measurements, que aborda as questoes de heterogeneidade de dose. Particulas ¿¿ e reacoes envolvendo interacao com neutrons sao as radiacoes que foram focadas na dissertacao e base da aplicacao dos programas desenvolvidos, atraves de resultados obtidos de um experimento em um acelerador linear Elekta Synergy, inter-calibrado com simulacoes de calculo de Monte Carlo. A teoria de percolacao que estuda o comportamento de aglomerados em redes bidimensionais e tridimensionais e baseada em processos randomicos, e pode ser aplicada porque eventos gerados pelas reacoes nucleares ou espalhamentos com neutrons que obedecem a estatistica de Poisson. Os eventos gerados podem ser mapeados a procura de aglomerados, celulas que sao vizinhas nas quais tenham ocorrido eventos. Os aglomerados sao a base da construcao dos descritores. Os resultados encontrados demonstram que os indices de heterogeneidades utilizados fornecem informacoes importantes a respeito da formacao destes aglomerados. Foram comparados os resultados obtidos para os casos 2D e 3D de distribuicao de celulas hipoteticas e foi possivel estudar as relacoes entre os dois casos. Os descritores de heterogeneidade possibilitarao associacoes de dano biologico com a distribuicao de eventos em culturas celulares (caso 2D) e tecidos (caso 3D) / Abstract: The goal of this study is the analysis of dose heterogeneity descriptors through programs developed in C ++ language based on Poisson statistics and probabilities for the occurrence of heterogeneity based on percolation theory. The purpose of this study is to obtain descriptors that may be useful in the study of radiobiological effects characteristic of the situations in which there is dose heterogeneity. The initial support for this work is the report by the International Commission on Radiation Units and Measurements, which describes the dose heterogeneity issues. Álpha particles and reactions involving interaction with neutrons were focused on this thesis are the base of application programs developed from results of an experiment at a linear accelerator Elekta Synergy, inter-calibrated with Monte Carlo simulation. The percolation theory, a theory that studies cluster behavior in two and three-dimensional lattices, is based on random processes, can be applied because the events generated by nuclear reactions with neutrons follow the Poisson statistics. Generated events can be mapped in the search for clusters, neighbor cells in which events occurred. The clusters are the basis for construction of descriptors. The results show that the heterogeneity descriptors provide important information about clusters formation. The results for 2D and 3D cases were compared for distribution of hypothetical cells. and it was possible to study the relations between the two cases. The descriptors of heterogeneity enable biological damage associations with the distribution of events in cell culture (2D case) and tissues (3D case) / Mestrado / Física / Mestra em Física

Orientadores: Ieda Geriberto Hidalgo, Paulo de Barros Correia / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Mecânica / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-27T21:54:34Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ContrerasMedellin_VivianaAndrea_M.pdf: 2918970 bytes, checksum: d3e29b2d5269f327c32b83ecc013aa6a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015 / Resumo: A geração de energia elétrica a partir de fontes renováveis constitui uma alternativa interessante para a diversificação da matriz energética de um país. No Brasil, o programa de incentivo às fontes alternativas de energia elétrica (Proinfa), instituído em 2004, teve como objetivo promover a diversificação da matriz energética, buscar alternativas para aumentar a segurança no abastecimento de energia elétrica e permitir a valorização das características e potencialidades regionais e locais. Dentre as fontes renováveis de geração de energia, o destaque deste trabalho é para a biomassa, utilizando o bagaço da cana-de-açúcar. O bagaço da cana é produzido em grandes quantidades no Brasil e possui 1/3 do conteúdo energético da cana. Este recurso permite a geração de energia descentralizada. No setor elétrico brasileiro, a contratação de energia proveniente de empreendimentos de geração a partir do bagaço da cana-de-açúcar pode ser formalizada por meio dos leilões de energia de reserva. A análise de projetos para empreendimentos deste tipo envolve duas variáveis estocásticas: a geração de energia (que depende da disponibilidade do recurso ¿ período sazonal) e o valor da energia no mercado de curto prazo (que depende das condições hidrológicas). Portanto, este trabalho apresenta um modelo de valoração probabilística, para empreendimentos de geração a partir do bagaço da cana-de-açúcar, em leilão de energia de reserva. Esta valoração é feita sob a ótica do empreendedor que deve saber qual é o limite do seu lance no leilão. Deste modo, o destaque da valoração probabilística é para o valor presente líquido (VPL), que determina a medida da probabilidade de ganho ou perda para o empreendedor que participa no leilão de energia de reserva. O método de simulação de Monte Carlo e o fluxo de caixa livre descontado são utilizados para a valoração probabilística. Três estudos de casos são apresentados para uma usina de geração de energia de São Paulo. Para cada cenário simulado, a distribuição de probabilidade do VPL, o VPL médio e a taxa interna de retorno (TIR), que faz com que o VPL médio seja nulo, são calculados. Avalia-se a sensibilidade do retorno do empreendimento para diferentes valores de investimento, taxa mínima de atratividade (TMA) e lance. Os resultados deste trabalho indicam que o benefício, representado pelo VPL do empreendimento, é muito sensível ao valor do lance. Conclui-se também, que a metodologia apresentada pode ser empregada como um instrumento para que os empreendedores, que participam de leilões de contratação de energia possam avaliar o riscos de ter uma perda, decorrente do seu lance dado no leilão / Abstract: Electricity generation from renewable sources is an interesting alternative to diversify the energy matrix of a country. In Brazil, the incentive program for alternative electricity sources (Proinfa), established in 2004, had as goals, promoting the diversification of energy matrix, looking for alternatives to increase energy supply security and allowing the enhancement of the regional and local characteristics and potentials. Among the renewable sources of energy generation, the highlight of this work is to biomass, using bagasse from sugarcane. The bagasse is produced in large quantities in Brazil and it has one third of the sugarcane energy content. This source allows a decentralized power generation. In the Brazilian electricity sector, energy contracting from generation projects that use sugarcane bagasse, as a source, can be formalized through reserve energy auctions. The analysis of this type of projects involves two stochastic variables. Power generation (which depends on the resource availability - seasonal period) and energy price in the spot market (which depends on the hydrological conditions). Therefore, this work presents a probabilistic valuation model for generation projects that use sugarcane bagasse and commercialize energy in reserve energy auctions. This valuation is made from the entrepreneur perspective, who must know which is his auction bidding limit. Thus, the highlight of probabilistic valuation is for the net present value (VPL), which determines the probability measure of gain or loss, for the entrepreneur participating in the reserve energy auction. The Monte Carlo simulation method and the discounted free cash flow are used for the probabilistic valuation. Three case studies are presented for a power generation plant located in São Paulo state. For each simulated scenario, the probability distribution of VPL, the average VPL and the internal return rate (TIR), that make average VPL to be zero, are calculated. Sensitivity of the project¿s return is evaluated to different investment values, minimum acceptable rates of return (TMAs) and auction biddings. The results in this study indicate that the earns, represented by venture VPL, are highly sensitive to auction bidding value. It is also concluded that the methodology presented can be used as an instrument to assist investors, participating in reserve power auctions, in assessing the risk of loss, resulting from its auction bidding / Mestrado / Planejamento de Sistemas Energeticos / Mestra em Planejamento de Sistemas Energéticos

Cette thèse se place dans le contexte d'Accordys, un projet d'ingénierie des connaissances qui vise à fournir un système de rapprochement de cas en fœtopathologie, qui est le domaine de l'étude des maladies rares et dysmorphies du fœtus. Ce projet se base sur un corpus de comptes rendus d'examens fœtaux. Ce matériel consiste en des comptes rendus en texte brut présentant un vocabulaire très spécifique (qui n'est que partiellement formalisé dans des terminologies médicales en français), des économies linguistiques (un style "prise de notes" très prononcé rendant difficile l'utilisation d'outils analysant la grammaire du texte) et une mise en forme matérielle exhibant une structuration commune latente (un découpage en sections, sous-sections, observations). Cette thèse vise à tester l'hypothèse qu'une uniformisation de la représentation des cas exploitant cette structure arborescente en la faisant correspondre à un modèle de cas (lui aussi arborescent) peut supporter la constitution d'une base de cas qui conserve les informations contenues dans les comptes rendus originaux et permette la mesure de similarité entre deux cas. La mise en correspondance entre cas et modèle (instanciation du modèle) est réalisée via un mapping d'arbres ayant pour base une méthode de Monte Carlo. Nous comparerons ceci avec des mesures de similarités obtenues en représentant nos comptes rendus (soit tels quels, soit enrichis sémantiquement grâce à un annotateur sémantique) dans un modèle vectoriel. / This thesis is set within the context of Accordys, a knowledge engineering project aiming at providing a case-based reasoning system for fetopathology, i.e. the medical domain studying rare diseases and dysmorphia of fetuses. The project is based on a corpus of french fetal exam reports. This material consists in raw text reports diplaying a very specific vocabulary (only partially formalized in french medical terminologies), a "note taking" style that makes difficult to use tools analysing the grammar in the text, and a layout and formatting that shows a latent common structuration (organisation in sections, sub-sections, observations). This thesis aims at testing the hypothesis that a uniformisation of the representation of cases that could exploit this arborescent structure by mapping it with a tree-shaped case model can support the constitution of a case base which preserves the information contained in original reports and the similarity measurement between two cases. Mapping a case with the model (instanciating the case model) is done through a Monte Carlo tree matching method. We compare this with similarity measurements obtained by representing our reports (both without further processing and after semantic enrichment through a semantic annotator) in a vector model.

The objective of this research is to determine the effect the North Dakota Ethanol Production Incentive has on ethanol plant survivability. This thesis uses a stochastic simulation to show the financial performance of an ethanol plant with and without subsidy support. Historical corn and ethanol prices are used to simulate market conditions a typical ethanol might face. Using the forecast prices, an ethanol plant balance sheet was created to show how a plant would perform in normal market conditions, as well as how the plant would perform with the Ethanol Production Incentive and also with alternative subsidy structures that were developed. The results showed the Ethanol Production Incentive was the most effective subsidy tested and it does appear to improve plant balance sheets to a certain extent during a downturn.

There is a enormous rise in importance of cryptography. In age of hi-technologies, where information are the most valuable asset, is need to protect this value. But we need to transport information between us and keep information confidental. In this case we use special modes of block cipher because of defect in communication canal. Not all modes are able to deal with this problem. For this purpose, there are special modes. This work deal with self-synchronization modes of block cipher. It is protection of tranfered information in communication canal against different types of defects. We will exam two self-synchronization modes - OCFB (Optimized Cipher FeedBack) and SCFB (Statistical Cipher FeedBack). Both have their advantages and disadvantages. The goal of this work is to provide analyse of both modes and to create simulation model. This model should help with further research of self-synchronization modes.

This master’s thesis contains the basis for the business plan of the project – real property sales. An evaluation of the strong and weak points of the project along with the elaboration of a financial and time analysis result from the thesis. Furthermore, the thesis offers a proposal for the most convenient way to continue in this business intention. A particular stress was placed on the cost estimate using the Monte Carlo method.

In recent years precision measurement of alternating currents goes through large progress especially because of improvements in metrology of electric power, which is related to reduction of electricity consumption. Therefore, more precise measurement of electric energy, power and power quality is required. Measurement range is extending and number of measured frequency points is growing up to 100 kHz. Development of current to voltage transducer with normalized output voltage (0,5 V - 1 V) is in progress because of their easy integration in different measuring systems.. From big area of alternating current metrology this dissertation focuses on development of improved cage shunts for measurement of alternating currents in range 10 mA - 100 A, 10 Hz - 100 kHz. Main objective of this dissertation is to develop theoretical model of existing cage shunts, which will assist design of new improved cage shunts construction. In this dissertation the analytical model of CMI’s cage shunts was established, based on calculating of trans-impedance from cascade matrix of passive two-port which is representing the shunt. Trans-impedance can be used for AC-DC difference and phase error calculation, which are two basic parameters of shunts. Uncertainty analysis of the model was done by means of Monte Carlo method. Next, this dissertation also concentrates on suitable measurement methods of phase error, AC-DC difference, and power a temperature coefficient of resistance. These measurements method were used for calibration of existing CMI’s cage shunts and so the model’s verification was made. Finally, theoretical optimization of existing CMI’s cage shunts constructions and theoretical designs of 20A, 50A and 100A shunts were done using sensitivity analysis results.