We have developed a regional mass balance model for the St. Lawrence River near Cornwall, Ontario that describes the fate and transport of mercury in three forms, elemental mercury (Hg0), divalent mercury (Hg2+), and methyl mercury (MeHg), in a five compartment environment (air, water, sediments, periphyton, and benthos). Our first objective was to construct a steady-state mass balance model to determine the dominant sources and sinks of mercury in this environment. Our second objective was to construct a dynamic mass balance model to predict and hindcast mercury concentrations in this environment. We compiled mercury concentrations, fluxes, and transformation rates from previous studies completed in this section of the river to develop the model in STELLA®. The inflow of mercury was the major source to this system, accounting for 0.42 mol month-1, or 95.5% of all mercury inputs, whereas outflow was 0.28 mol month-1, or 63.6% of all losses, and sediment deposition was 0.12 mol month-1, or 27.3% of all losses. The dynamic mass balance model provides estimated results that are consistent with measured data and predicts historical local industrial emissions to be approximately 400 kg year-1. Uncertainty estimates were greatest for advective fluxes in surface water, porewater, periphyton, and benthic invertebrates. This model is useful for predicting and hindcasting mercury concentrations in other aquatic environments because it contains the three main environmental compartments, all forms of mercury, and compartments (e.g. periphyton) not included in previous mercury multi-media models.

Since snowmelt runoff is important in the mountainous parts of the world, substantial efforts have been made to develop snowmelt models with many different levels of complexity to simulate the processes at the ground, within the snow, and at the interface with the atmosphere. The land-atmosphere interactions and processing influencing heat transfer to and from a snowpack are largely variable and the conceptual representation of this temporal and spatial variability is difficult. A physically based, two layer point model, is applied to calculate the energy and mass balance of snowmelt in the Upper Karasu Basin, eastern part of Turkey during 2002-2004 snow seasons. The climate data are provided from automated weather stations installed and upgraded to collect quantitative and qualitative data with automated transfer. Each form of energy transfer is evaluated to understand the key processes that have major impact on the snow simulation during accumulation and ablation in two-hourly timesteps. The model performance is evaluated as accurate according to the results, compared with observed snow water equivalents, snow depth and lysimeter runoff yield. In the second part, calculated snowmelt values based on energy and mass balance at the automated stations are related to radiation index model through regression. Then, the spatial patterns of snow water equivalent, solar illumination, albedo and air temperature are used to predict the melt at each grid cell over the whole watershed. The results of distributed model application are evaluated in terms of snow covered area of satellite products, observed snow water equivalent at points through snow pillows and discharge values at the outlet runoff station.

Canadian High Arctic terrestrial ice masses and the polar atmosphere evolve co-dependently, and interactions between the two systems can lead to feedbacks, positive and negative. The two primary positive cryosphere-atmosphere feedbacks are: 1) The snow/ice-albedo feedback (where area changes in snow and/or ice cause changes in surface albedo and surface air temperatures, leading to further area changes in snow/ice); and 2) The elevation - mass balance feedback (where thickness changes in terrestrial ice masses cause changes to atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns, leading to further ice thickness changes). In this thesis, numerical experiments are performed to: 1) quantify the magnitudes of the two feedbacks for chosen Canadian High Arctic terrestrial ice masses; and 2) to examine the direct and indirect consequences of surface air temperature changes upon englacial temperatures with implications for ice flow, mass flux divergence, and topographic evolution. Model results show that: a) for John Evans Glacier, Ellesmere Island, the magnitude of the terrestrial snow/ice-albedo feedback can locally exceed that of sea ice on less than decadal timescales, with implications for glacier response times to climate perturbations; b) although historical air temperature changes might be the direct cause of measured englacial temperature anomalies in various glacier and ice cap accumulation zones, they can also be the indirect cause of their enhanced diffusive loss; c) while the direct result of past air temperature changes has been to cool the interior of John Evans Glacier, and its bed, the indirect result has been to create and maintain warm (pressure melting point) basal temperatures in the ablation zone; and d) for Devon Ice Cap, observed mass gains in the northwest sector of the ice cap would be smaller without orographic precipitation and the mass balance – elevation feedback, supporting the hypothesis that this feedback is playing a role in the evolution of the ice cap.

The aim of this research was to demonstrate the relationship between variations in summertime surface mass balance of the McMurdo Ice Shelf and atmospheric processes. The approach encompassed a broad range of techniques. An existing energy balance mass balance model was adapted to deal with debris-covered ice surfaces and modified to produce distributed output. Point based surface energy and mass balance for two key surfaces of the ice shelf were linked to different synoptic types that were identified using a manual synoptic classification. The distributed model was initialised with distributed parameters derived from satellite remote sensing and forced with data from a regional climate model. Patterns of summertime surface mass balance produced by the distributed model were assessed against stake measurements and with respect to atmospheric processes. During the summers of 2003-2004 and 2004-2005 an automatic weather station (AWS) was operated on bare and debris-covered ice surfaces of the McMurdo Ice shelf, Antarctica. Surface mass balance was calculated using the energy balance model driven by the data from the AWS and additional data from permanent climate stations. Net mass balance for the measurement period was reproduced reasonably well when validated against directly measured turbulent fluxes, stake measurements, and continuously measured surface height at the AWS. For the bare ice surface net radiation provided the major energy input for ablation, whereas sensible heat flux was a second heat source. Ablation was by both melt (70%) and sublimation (30%). At the debris-covered ice site investigated, it is inferred that the debris cover is sufficient to insulate the underlying ice from ablation. Synoptic weather situations were analysed based on AVHRR composite images and surface pressure charts. Three distinct synoptic situations were found to occur during the summers, these were defined as Type A, low pressure system residing in the Ross Sea Embayment; Type B, anticyclonic conditions across region; and Type C, a trough of low pressure extending into the Ross Sea Embayment. A dependence of surface energy fluxes and mass balance on synoptic situation was identified for the bare ice surface. The distributed model was found to produce spatial patterns of mass balance which compared well with stake measurements. Mass balance patterns show that the McMurdo Ice Shelf was generally ablating in the west, and accumulating in the east during summer. Areas of enhanced ablation were found which were likely to be caused by the surface conditions and topographic effects on the wind field. The mean summertime surface mass balance across the entire ice shelf for the 2003-2004 and 2004-2005 summers were –2.5 mm w.e. and –6.7 mm w.e. respectively. The differences between the two summers are inferred to be a result of more frequent type A conditions occurring during the summer of 2004-2005.

We have developed a regional mass balance model for the St. Lawrence River near Cornwall, Ontario that describes the fate and transport of mercury in three forms, elemental mercury (Hg0), divalent mercury (Hg2+), and methyl mercury (MeHg), in a five compartment environment (air, water, sediments, periphyton, and benthos). Our first objective was to construct a steady-state mass balance model to determine the dominant sources and sinks of mercury in this environment. Our second objective was to construct a dynamic mass balance model to predict and hindcast mercury concentrations in this environment. We compiled mercury concentrations, fluxes, and transformation rates from previous studies completed in this section of the river to develop the model in STELLA®. The inflow of mercury was the major source to this system, accounting for 0.42 mol month-1, or 95.5% of all mercury inputs, whereas outflow was 0.28 mol month-1, or 63.6% of all losses, and sediment deposition was 0.12 mol month-1, or 27.3% of all losses. The dynamic mass balance model provides estimated results that are consistent with measured data and predicts historical local industrial emissions to be approximately 400 kg year-1. Uncertainty estimates were greatest for advective fluxes in surface water, porewater, periphyton, and benthic invertebrates. This model is useful for predicting and hindcasting mercury concentrations in other aquatic environments because it contains the three main environmental compartments, all forms of mercury, and compartments (e.g. periphyton) not included in previous mercury multi-media models.

This thesis investigates how changing climate conditions have impacted the mass balance, dynamics and associated hypsometry (area-elevation distribution) of White Glacier, an alpine glacier on Axel Heiberg Island, Nunavut. The first article describes the production of a new map of White Glacier from which changes in ice thickness and glacier hypsometry could be determined. A new digital elevation model (DEM) was created using >400 oblique air photos and Structure from Motion, a method built upon photogrammetry but with the advantage of automated image correlation analysis. The result of this work demonstrates that the method is able to overcome the challenges of optical remote sensing in snow-covered areas. The resulting DEM and orthoimage facilitated the production of a map with 5 m vertical accuracy in the style of earlier cartographic works. The new map supported the calculation of the glacier’s geodetic mass balance and provides an updated glacier hypsometry, which improves the accuracy of mass balance calculations. A modeled glacier hypsometry time-series was created to support a reanalysis of the mass balance record over the period 1960-2014, which through comparison of the geodetic and glaciological methods enables the detection of potential sources of error in the glaciological method. Comparison of the two approaches reveals that within the error margin no significant difference exists between the average annual glaciological mass balance (-213 ± 28 mm w.e. a 1) and geodetic mass balance ( 178 ± 16 mm w.e. a-1). To determine how ice dynamics have responded to ice thinning and negative mass balances, dual-frequency GPS observations of ice motion were compared to historic velocity measurements collected at three cross-sectional profiles along the glacier. Comparisons of annual and seasonal velocities indicate velocity decreases of 10–45% since the 1960s. However, increased summer velocities at the highest station suggests that increased delivery of surface meltwater to the glacier bed has initiated basal sliding at elevations that did not experience high levels of melt in earlier decades. Modeled balance fluxes demonstrate that observed fluxes, both historically and currently, are unsustainable under current climate conditions.

There has been a marked increase in melt season length over the past two decades on glaciers and ice caps within Canada’s Queen Elizabeth Islands (QEI). Prior to the year ~2000 land ice was in a state of slightly negative mass balance (-11 +/- 11.5 Gt yr⁻¹ over 1958-1995), but recent GRACE measurements suggest that mass losses averaged -33 +/- 5 Gt yr⁻¹ between 2003-2015. These losses have primarily been attributed to meltwater runoff, making the QEI one of the largest recent contributors to sea level rise outside of the ice sheets. Despite these losses, there is a lack of information concerning how a warming climate is affecting small (<1 km²) ice bodies, which are considered sensitive indicators of change due to their short response time. In this study, historical and contemporary aerial photographs, high resolution optical satellite imagery, and ground penetrating radar (GPR) surveys are used to determine area, thickness, mass and volume changes of Adams Icefield within Expedition Fiord, Axel Heiberg Island, Nunavut, over the past seven decades (1948/59-2019). Area changes are determined from a comparison of air photos acquired in 1948/59 with satellite images acquired since 1979. Contemporary (2001, 2012, 2019) digital elevation models (DEMs) were either collected or created from stereo satellite images, and via aerial photo surveys using Structure from Motion photogrammetry. DEM of Difference maps calculated from these DEMs provide volume and mass changes. Results illustrate a steady reduction in glacier area, thickness, and volume prior to the year ~2000, followed by a rapid increase in losses over the past two decades. As a result, Adams Icefield is now rapidly declining and is likely to completely disappear early in the twenty-second century.

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第17881号 / 工博第3790号 / 新制||工||1580(附属図書館) / 30701 / 京都大学大学院工学研究科都市環境工学専攻 / (主査)教授 米田 稔, 教授 田中 宏明, 教授 清水 芳久 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM

Glaciers in the North Patagonian Ice Fields are temperate glaciers and can be studied to understand the dynamics of climate change. However, the ice field has been neglected in mass balance studies. In this study, multi decadal study of glacial mass balance, glacier retreat and glacial lake expansion in the North Patagonia were studied. Landsat (TM, ETM+ and 8) and ASTER images were used. San Quintin glacier experienced the highest retreat. Demarcation of glacier lakes boundaries indicated an increase in glacial lake area from 13.49 km2 to 65.06 km2 between 1979 and 2013, with an addition of 4 new glacial lakes. Nef glacier recorded the highest mass gain of 9.91 plus or minus 1.96 m.w.e.a.-1 and HPN-4 glacier recorded the highest mass loss of -8.9 plus or minus 1.96 m.w.e.a.-1. However, there is a high uncertainty in the elevation values in the DEM due to the rugged nature of the terrain and presence of the heavy snow cover.

Glaciers are the essential source of fresh water not only to human sustenance, but it is also vital for all lifeforms on earth. Glaciers are also key components in understanding rapid changes in climate. This makes understanding of glacier mass, extent, and overall state essential. In this dissertation, the objective was to analyze the state of snow and ice masses in the mid (California) and low latitude (Chile/Argentina) western American regions using geospatial technology. This study also analyzed the effects of anomalies in snow mass on the regional agricultural practices in California’s Central Valley. In the Southern Andes, the digital elevation models from Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) (the year 2000) were compared with the elevation footprints from the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) campaign for the years 2004 through 2008. Generally, in all sub-regions, the elevation values were lower than the elevation for the year 2000, which demarcates continuous recession of ice mass in the Andean region. Also, this study quantified snow cover extent and mass balance variation in the Sierra Nevada and Mt. Shasta regions in California. To unearth anomalies in snow mass, study used digital elevation models generated from the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) between the year 2000 and 2015. A remarkable reduction in snow cover extent of about 80% was observed in the studied watersheds of California. Lastly, the impacts of snow mass anomalies on the total water storage (TWS) and agriculture land cover in the California’s Central Valley were quantified and geo-visualized. The study noticed the change in the land cover area of about 20% (6993 sq.km) due to the alteration of Agriculture land to impervious land covers. Most of the change in the agriculture land cover of about 4402 sq.km occurred in the San Joaquin and Tulare Basins of southern Central Valley region. This dissertation concludes that the increased temperature in the Andes and California has adversely impacted Cryosphere components in the region in the past decade. Besides, it provides valuable insights into the changing state of cryosphere components and highlights impacts of anomalies in TWS on a billion-dollar agricultural industry.