Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:48:52Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Andrea Lucchesi.pdf: 947350 bytes, checksum: 2b1a8ff5f3794de60c6607c03043bda8 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008-06-30 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / This research aims to contribute to the systematic measurement of the long-term financing volume granted in Brazil from June 2000 until February 2008, measurement which is still inexistent in the national economic literature. The diagnosis that presents a deficiency or absence of private long-term financing sources in the Brazilian economy is basically consensual and has been strengthened by the perception that the scenario has not changed with the end of high inflation rates after the Real Plan. Although widely accepted, this thesis is not supported by empirical evidences. This research analyzes the statistics concerning the credit and capital markets, with the purpose of verifying the extension of maturities of credit lines and of securities and bonds offered in the primary market. Based on the available data, a methodology for the quantification of the long-run financing existing in Brazil is suggested. For the long-run concept, two definitions have been adopted: one takes in consideration the stated period in years (equal or longer than one, three, five or twelve years) and the other is related to the economic purpose of the financial resources, or in other words, those resources designated to the productive investment financing / Este trabalho busca contribuir para a mensuração ordenada do volume de financiamento de longo prazo concedido no Brasil, no período entre junho/2000 e fevereiro/2008, mensuração esta inexistente na literatura econômica nacional. O diagnóstico de insuficiência ou de ausência de fontes privadas de financiamento de longo prazo na economia brasileira é praticamente consensual e foi reforçado pela percepção de que o quadro não foi alterado pelo fim da inflação elevada, com o Plano Real. Apesar de amplamente aceita, essa tese não está amparada em comprovações empíricas. Este trabalho analisa as estatísticas relativas ao mercado de crédito e ao mercado de capitais, com o intuito de verificar a evolução do alongamento das linhas de crédito e de valores mobiliários ofertados no mercado primário. A partir dos dados disponíveis, propõe-se uma metodologia para a quantificação do financiamento de longo prazo existente no Brasil. Para o conceito de longo prazo foram adotadas duas definições: uma em termos de prazo em anos (maior ou igual a um, três, cinco ou doze anos) e outra em relação à destinação econômica dos recursos financeiros em questão, ou seja, aqueles recursos destinados ao financiamento do investimento produtivo

In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, the debt capital market in Sweden experienced rapid growth, resulting in a doubling of its size. In recent years, real estate companies have become increasingly dependent on financing through the capital markets. As a result, the interdependence between the real estate and financial sectors has significantly increased. Today, the real estate market constitutes for around 50 per cent of the Swedish corporate bond market. In 2023, approximately SEK 100 bn worth of bonds are expected to mature, followed by around SEK 150 bn set to mature in 2024, compelling Sweden's property companies to implement significant alterations to their methods of financing operations. This study aims to analyse the current state of the Swedish real estate bond market, as well as an examination of opportunities and risks for investors given the current market situation. The research questions follows: What are the current characteristics of the Swedish real estate bond market? What opportunities and risks are present in the Swedish real estate bond market for investors? The study is limited to the corporate real estate bond market in Sweden, with a particular emphasis on Swedish issuers and financiers. A combination of a qualitative and quantitative method was conducted, and the study adopts an abductive approach. The findings revealed that the Swedish real estate bond market holds a prominent role in the corporate bond market and is characterised as a young market that has undergone significant growth. It presents opportunities for alternative financing, investing in distressed real estate assets, promoting sustainability and better returns from a risk-reward perspective. From a risk perspective there are several risks: the challenge of refinancing, a change in market conditions thus increasing capital costs, the credit risk, the liquidity risk, credit ratings downgrades, risk of valuations, sceptical investors and creative capital structures in the Swedish real estate market and the bond market. / I efterdyningarna av finanskrisen 2008 upplevde den svenska skuldkapitalmarknaden en snabb tillväxt, vilket resulterade i en fördubbling av dess storlek. Fastighetsbolagens ökade beroende av kapitalmarknaderna för upplåning de senaste åren har ökat exponeringen mellan fastighets- och finanssektorn. Idag utgör fastighetssektorn cirka 50 procent av den svenska företagsobligationsmarknaden. År 2023 förväntas cirka 100 miljarder kronor i obligationer förfalla, följt av cirka 150 miljarder kronor år 2024, vilket tvingar Sveriges fastighetsbolag att genomföra betydande förändringar i sina finansieringsstrukturer. Denna studie syftar till att analysera det aktuella läget på den svenska fastighetsobligationsmarknaden, samt dess möjligheter och risker för investerare. Forskningsfrågorna följer: Vilka är de nuvarande karaktärsdragen hos den svenska fastighetsobligationsmarknaden? Vilka möjligheter och risker finns på den svenska fastighetsobligationsmarknaden för investerare? Studien är begränsad till företagsfastighetsobligationsmarknaden i Sverige, med särskild tonvikt på svenska emittenter och finansiärer. En kombination av en kvalitativ och kvantitativ metod genomfördes och studien antar ett abduktivt tillvägagångssätt. Resultatet avslöjade att den svenska fastighetsobligationsmarknaden har en framträdande roll på företagsobligationsmarknaden och karaktäriseras som en ung marknad som har genomgått betydande tillväxt. Det ger möjligheter till alternativ finansiering, investeringar i nödställda fastighetstillgångar, främjar hållbarhet och bättre avkastning ur ett risk-belöningsperspektiv. Ur ett riskperspektiv finns det flera risker: utmaning med refinansiering, förändrade marknadsförhållanden som ökar kapitalkostnaderna, kreditrisk, likviditetsrisk, skeptiska investerare, nedgraderingar av kreditbetyg, risk för värderingar och kreativa kapitalstrukturer på den svenska fastighetsmarknaden och obligationsmarknaden.

Dans les conditions actuelles du marché, les entreprises dans les pays émergeants ont le choix entre une dette à court terme en monnaie locale et un financement à long terme en devise forte provenant de sources internationales pour financer leurs investissements à long terme. Ceci crée un gap de taux ou de change. Cette thèse se situe dans la continuité des travaux de recherche qui ont déjà étudié la question de la diversification des risques de change dans les marchés financiers matures. A la différence des approches existantes, cette recherche se concentre sur les monnaies des pays émergeants pour lesquels il n’existe pas ou peu d’instruments de couverture du risque de change et de taux. Le modèle proposé repose sur une conception fondamentalement différente des modèles de risque existants, cherchant à atténuer les risques internes grâce à la diversification du portefeuille, plutôt que par l’adéquation entre l'offre et la demande. Ceci en étudiant à la fois les corrélations entre les monnaies des pays des marchés émergeants constituées dans un portefeuille composé de monnaies des pays africains, asiatiques, sud-américains et d’Europe de l’Est ainsi que l’effet de la diversification sur la réduction du risque de marché. Le choix des monnaies n’a pas une incidence significative sur les résultats du moment que les limites régionales proposées sont respectées. L’objectif principal de cette thèse est de contribuer à la spécification et à l’identification d’un modèle de diversification des risques tout en démontrant que la constitution d’un portefeuille diversifié et non couvert des produits dérivés de change sur les monnaies des marchés émergents est une activité lucrative à long terme. En s’appuyant sur un Système d’Information performant, le model proposé tente de démontrer l’effet qu’auraient de tels produits de couverture sur la réduction du risque de crédit de l’emprunteur et par conséquent celui des bailleurs de fonds. Afin d’atteindre cet objectif, les différents risques liés à ces activités ont été définis tout en choisissant les méthodes pour une gestion efficace de ces risques ainsi que la modélisation d’expositions hypothétiques créées par cette activité. L’impact de la réduction de l’exposition au risque de marché par l’usage des produits de couverture du risque de change et de taux, sur le risque de crédit des entreprises dans les pays émergeants a aussi été modélisé. Les résultats de la simulation proposée montrent qu’une gestion optimale des risques de changes et de taux générés, à travers l’offre de couvertures sur les monnaies des pays émergeants, peut être une activité lucrative pour les banques car l’atténuation des risques peut se faire en diversifiant efficacement le portefeuille. / In current market conditions, companies in emerging markets have the choice between a short-term debt in local currency and a long-term hard currency financing from international sources to finance their long-term investments. This practice would create either an interest rate gap or a currency gap. As an extent of previous researches and studies covering the question of currency risks diversification in mature financial markets, this thesis is quite distinctive from the existing literature as it focuses on emerging market currencies for which there are little or no hedging options of currency and interest rate risks. The proposed model is based on a fundamentally different approach from existing risk models, seeking to mitigate risks internally through portfolio diversification, rather than by matching supply and demand. This, by analyzing both correlations between emerging market currencies in a portfolio composed of African, Asian, South American and Eastern Europe currencies and the effect of diversification on market risk reduction. The main objective of this thesis is to contribute to the specification and the identification of a risk diversification model while demonstrating that the establishment of a diversified portfolio of emerging market currencies not covered by the commercial banks is a lucrative business over the long-term. With an efficient information system, the proposed model attempts to demonstrate the effect that such hedging products would have on reducing the credit risk of borrowers and hence the lenders. To achieve this aim, the different risks associated with these activities have been identified while choosing the methods for their effective management as well as the modeling of hypothetical exposures created by this activity. The impact of reducing market risk exposure through the usage of interest rate and currency hedging products on the credit risk rating of companies in emerging countries has also been modeled. The current research claims that the choice of currencies does not significantly impact the results as long as the proposed regional limits are respected. The simulation’ results show that managing a diversified currency portfolio under an optimal risk management guidelines can be a lucrative business for banks as the risk mitigation can be effectively done through portfolio diversification.