近幾年來，國內外又掀起了另一股購併潮流。但在這樣的潮流底下，購併真的能為企業帶來價值嗎？又為什麼有這麼多的人想要投入這塊領域？ 從許多合併後的實證結論發現，購併的進行並不如業者本身所預期的那樣樂觀，但這股風潮，似乎未曾間斷。究其原因，我們從購併的基本動機理論著手，再加上實質選擇權的特性－「管理彈性」予以考量，發現若將選擇權的觀念應用到購併投資決策上，的確會造成投資計畫價值增加的效果。顯然彈性價值的存在，的確是推動企業購併的主要因素之一。 本文所採行的研究個案係國內的大型銀行，是故購併案的採行，勢必會有一筆龐大的期初投資。若未來的預期收益無法與期初成本相當，或在短期內，無法將成本回收的話，從購併案的動機來看，這樣的案子將不予採行。本文即因為期初投入成本太大，導致這宗合併案將不與採行。但在情境分析的考量下，若於市場處於樂觀情境，則雙方會接受這宗合併案。這樣的決策結果係針對量化指標來考量，若加入了政府當局或環境因素的考慮，也許雙方當事者仍會採納此購併建議。 本文研究之主要目的在為企業機構的合併案，提供一套利用多期實質選擇權概念進行評估的架構。同時，透過簡單的模型應用，加深企業對選擇權評價模式的瞭解，有助理論在實務上的應用。不過本文有資料蒐集上的困難，很多模型上的參數估計會產生些許誤差，但希望在合理的基礎下，能為購併計畫的評價帶來些許貢獻。

台資物流企業面臨客戶大量西進中國，市場大幅萎縮的窘境，而彼岸市場卻是商機無限。自從中國加入世貿後，不斷深化體制改革，改善投資環境，推動經濟快速增長，不僅累積大量外匯存底。其次，中國大陸在成為世界工廠後，為降低對外貿易的依存度，積極擴大內需市場，鼓勵消費，間接帶動龐大的物流市場。根據美國國際數據資訊(IDC)的預測，未來十年中國委外物流將以每年40 %的速度激增。此外，從2006年起，中國物流業已經全面開放，取消對外資的限制。在外資不斷湧入之下，大型物流業者挾帶資金、技術和全球網路優勢，逐漸擴展中國大陸的物流市場；而本地物流業者，也在政策的扶植下和地緣的優勢，快速轉型升級，搶佔市場。台資物流企業面對這全球物流業的最主要的競技場，如何憑藉自身的優勢，配合主客觀環境的演變，掌握中國物流產業未來可能的趨勢與變化，作為佈局中國，開拓新市場，變成是一個必須面對的課題。 / 本研究的課題是以產業、區域經濟、消費、基礎建設、環境保護等經濟層面為主，圍繞在中國境內物流的發展。以台資物流企業經營路線貨運的零擔（LTL，Less Than Truck）物流業者的角度為出發點，依據其產業特性，剖析中國物流業的基礎環境、產業結構、產業發展策略、政策法規、交通建設等主題，再佐以中國物流業的市場特色、外資與本地物流業者的合縱連橫等要素分析，進而了解中國現代物流的範疇與多樣性。 本論文研究核心在於探討中國的物流環境與未來趨勢，以作為台灣物流業，特別是零擔物流業者，在進軍中國大陸策略佈局時的參考。本研究試圖以較宏觀的角度，勾勒出中國物流產業的發展概況；外資進入中國的戰略，再對照歐美物流業的發展歷程，來推估未來中國現代物流的走向。再以微觀的角度切入市場需求與發展趨勢，形成一套台資物流企業部署中國的可行方案。 / It is suffered by Taiwan based logistics enterprises that their major customers move forward to China for the business reasons. This not only causes the Taiwan market to shrink but also makes the market in China grow very soon. Since China entered WTO, it strengthened the architecture of the governance system, improved the investment environment, which stimulated the economic growth and accumulated huge money from foreign trading. After China becomes the world manufacture factory, it reduced the dependency from foreign trading, aggressively expanded its domestic market and encourage people to spend money in consumer markets, which indirectly created a huge logistics market. According to the evaluation of IDC, the outsourcing logistics market will grow 40% per year in the coming 10 years. In addition, Chinese government started to open the market since 2006, it modified the law and allow foreign enterprises to manage domestic markets. Therefore, most foreign logistics enterprises entered China market and made the market expand gradually through capital, technology and network advantages. Moreover, local logistics enterprises adapted their business models to grab the market share through the government support and leverage the benefits of local people. How Taiwan based enterprises facing the global major market of the logistics to compete with others on the basis of their own advantages, fulfill the requirement of the changing business environments , learn to ride the trend of the industry from the planning of the deployment in China and open new markets become a serious subject. / The scope of this research focuses on the economic level issue, including industries, area economics, consumers, infrastructure and environment protection around Chinese domestic markets. It is from the point of the view of LTL(Less Than Truck) supplier, which runs the regular truck transportation featuring the characteristics of this domain to analyze the infrastructure, industry architecture, development strategies, policies, regulations and so on. The discussion of the Chinese market characteristics along with industry corporation, competition between foreign and local logistics service providers can further define the Chinese modern logistics category and diversity. The core of this research is to probe into the industry environment and the future trend of China logistics to build the guideline for Taiwan based enterprise to enter the China market. It attempts to make a profile of the China logistics industry through broad viewpoints and predict the China logistics trend from the reference of the strategy of foreign competitors and the history of Europe and US development and furthermore, through the understanding of the market requirements to work out the deployment plan in China.