Em decorrência do fim da União Soviética, a China e os Estados Unidos perderam um rival importante no Leste Asiático, o que alterou substancialmente a balança de poder regional, levando-a da multipolaridade à bipolaridade, ou seja, desde 1991 a China e os Estados Unidos são os únicos polos de poder no Leste Asiático. Para melhorar sua posição relativa nesta balança de poder, a República Popular da China (RPC) vem investindo pesadamente na modernização do Exército de Libertação do Povo (ELP), que é o principal segmento das forças armadas chinesas. O tema deste estudo é a distribuição de poder no Leste Asiático entre China e Estados Unidos, precisamente o impacto da modernização militar do ELP sobre tal distribuição, considerando tanto os grandes agregados econômicos na análise da modernização, quanto os inventários militares e seus meios de emprego. Isso nos leva ao problema geral da presente pesquisa, que consiste na seguinte questão: qual o impacto da modernização militar da China sobre a balança de poder do Leste Asiático? O método utilizado será o de estudo de caso – comparação focada e estruturada, o que nos permitirá comparar os valores das variáveis independentes dos dois casos em tela (RPC e EUA). Tal comparação terá um caráter sincrônico, ou seja, considerará os valores das variáveis em um dado momento, apenas. Conclui-se que a modernização militar do ELP mudou a distribuição de poder no Leste Asiático em favor da China. / After the demise of Soviet Union, China and United States lost a great rival in the East Asian region, which shifted the regional balance of Power from multipolarity to bipolarity, in other words since 1991 China and United States are the remaining poles of power in the East Asia. To improve its relative position in this balance of power, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has invested continuously in the modernization of People’s Liberation Army (PLA), the main branch of the armed forces. The issue of this research is the distribution of power in the East Asian region between China and United States (US), precisely the meaning of PLA’s modernization for the regional balance of power, analyzing economic aggregate data, the military inventories, and its means of use. The general question of this research is: what’s the meaning of PLA’s modernization for the balance of power in the East Asian Region? Case study is our method, precisely the structured and focused comparison, which permits to compare the values of independent variables in both cases (PRC and US). The comparison approaches the values of variables in a single moment. One concludes that PLA’s modernization has shifted the regional balance of power in favor of China.

Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited / American military relations with the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) have been in a constant state of flux since their rocky beginnings during the Second World War. Since the Tiananmen Square incident of June 1989, efforts to reestablish a positive working relationship between the U.S. Department of Defense and the PLA have been restrained by domestic political pressures within both polities and a number of crises which increased political tensions between both nations' governments. Due to reactive policies implemented by both governments, engagement programs between the United States and PRC have yielded few tangible benefits to either side in the past fifteen years. This thesis addresses the history of U.S. military engagement with the PRC and discusses past American policies of "containment" and "engagement" of China. Case studies concerning American engagement with Taiwan and Thailand reveal the benefits of close links with partners in Asia and provide programs for possible emulation in the U.S.-PRC relationship. Through managed engagement programs such as systematic security summits, educational exchanges and partnership operations initiatives, a stable defense dialogue between American and Chinese militaries can yield significant results in reducing tensions between their two governments and averting future crises through improved communication and cooperation. / Major (Select), United States Air Force

滿清末年以來，中國文官節制武官的傳統受到嚴重破壞，地方團練取代政府軍，地方軍隊演變成軍閥主義，國家領導人都是由戰場上勝利的軍人擔任。江澤民時期開始，中共實施世代交替，黨、政、軍高層領導人，轉移給一批技術官僚與軍事專業人員手上，此期間中共黨、政、軍互動關係為本文研究之目的。透過歷史比較，江澤民，是一個幾乎與解放軍毫無淵源的文官，沒有任何服役與作戰的經驗，卻能順利掌握軍隊與國家，本研究證明在中國中斷數百年來「文官統制武官」的歷史傳統，已經恢復。此外，近二十年來，中共軍事現代化成就確實令人刮目相看，與江澤民的外語專長及電機專長有密切關係，這些人格特質也是他令軍隊信服的重要工具。軍政軍民關係上，江澤民堅持民主集中制，排除多黨制，造成軍隊遠離政治紛擾，並與黨充分合作，以獲致預算並做好軍民與軍政關係。在解放軍內部，推動軍事教育的改革，也造就解放軍戰略思維的重大轉變，形成解放軍現代化的動力之ㄧ。然而，敏感性的軍文關係議題，例如一黨領軍，中共有禁忌而且沒有試驗場，台灣的寶貴經驗，很值得大陸參考。 關鍵字：中國共產黨、軍隊現代化、解放軍、文人統制、軍事專業主義 / During the decline of Chin Dynasty, as an unintended result to rely upon localized National Guard defeating upraise event, the Chinese traditional Civilian Control system was replaced by warlord system. Since then, the war hero was the one who advanced to political leadership. Until Jiang Zemin, a civilian with civil college certificate took leadership over the PLA, CCP, and PRC. The purpose of this paper is to exam the civil-military interaction during Jiang Zemin’s journey. Through historical comparison, this paper confirmed that the Chinese traditional Civil-Control system has been revived. Also, Jiang Zemin was the military leadership over PLA modernization. With personal attributes of profound languages and electronic profession, he shaped his position successfully in PLA community. This paper also recognized significant relationship between one-party theory and PLA, and the relationship between PLA　NDU and strategic thinking. Key Words: Chinese Communist Party, Military Modernization, People Liberation Army, Civil-Control and Military Professionalism.

Thesis (Master of Military Studies)-Marine Corps Command and Staff College, 2008. / Title from title page of PDF document (viewed on: Feb 1, 2010). Includes bibliographical references.