Mexico, one of the world’s largest economies and an increasingly relevant actor in international affairs, is at a crucial point in defining its future policy course. Given the uncertainty surrounding the global economy, as well as the political situation in Mexico, it is important to have a clear vision for policy going forward. This thesis offers a foundation for a national economic strategy with a long-term vision, upon which future administrations can build as appropriate to maximize on the country’s economic potential. The task is undertaken through a three-part approach. First, a thorough and analytical overview of the country’s economic history provides context and lessons from which to learn. Second, key economic issues to be addressed are identified through an evaluation of the current context and economic outlook. Finally, an evaluation of successful policy implementation, domestically and abroad, provides a basis that can be adapted to address the issues identified as they affect Mexico. The result is a series of six policy recommendations along two axes aimed at tackling the aforementioned key issues. These recommendations are by no means exhaustive, nor are they meant to be. The expectation is that they may serve to align national policy to global economic trends, underlying a plausible strategy to realize Mexico’s productive potential.

The main objective of this thesis is to compare the standard of living in the Czech Republic and France in regards to state-provided assistance to achieve this level of living standard. The work is focused mainly on familial social policy of both countries, and therefore the examined group of citizens is mainly families with dependent children. The work is divided into two parts. The first part is establishing the legislative framework for state social benefits and definitions of important terms. The second part describes in detail the various Czech and French benefits, as well as examples of the economic situation of selected families and their entitlement to state benefits. The conclusion is devoted to the comparison of these findings.

Analyses about aggregate employment, unemployment, and inactivity rates frequently disregard labor market trends of specific household members, which may explain some puzzles in the relationship between economic activity and labor market participation. The relevance of family approaches of labor supply transcends the aggregate macroeconomic trends and addresses important micro-level analysis concerning the behavior and intrahousehold decisions of members and policy-relevant results. Despite the consensus about the joint labor supply decisions of household members, studies are typically at the individual level and disregard sons and daughters as decision-makers in a family. Therefore, in this thesis, we investigate these questions for Brazil, in two studies. In the first study, we analyze the labor supply decisions of sons daughters aged 14 to 24 years living with their parents, in a reduced form exercise. We collaborate to the empirical literature about intrahousehold impacts of policies, testing whether the minimum wage, which affects the income of parents, impacts the final labor supply decisions of sons and daughters. We also verify if the policy has distinct effects depending on whether the eligible person is the father or the mother, aiming to test the income-pooling hypothesis. Our identification strategy is based on an intention-to-treat approach, and in a differences-in-differences estimator. Another innovation is the use of the PNADC (IBGE) for 2012-2016. We find that the direction and magnitude of the minimum wage effects affecting fathers and mothers, on the labor supply of sons and daughters, depend on who is and how many eligible members there exist in the household: it is negative, whether the eligible person is the mother or the father, and it is positive, whether both are eligible. Therefore, our results strengthen the argument in favor of household approaches, since the income pooling hypothesis does not seem to be valid in this context. In the second study, we investigate how the decisions about labor supply could determine the aggregate results of unemployment and inactivity of the secondary household earners. We develop and estimate a structural household job search model with on-the-job search. We extend Dey and Flinn (2008) to allow for unemployment and inactivity of mothers and sons and daughters who are subject to shocks to their employment and income shocks to fathers. These shocks may determine different search behavior and job acceptance, depending on the other household member\'s labor market situation. The model is estimated using the PME (IBGE) for 2004-2014. We perform counterfactual simulations, and we verify that the decreasing unemployment rate of sons/daughters would not have changed between 2004 and 2014 if the labor market opportunities and conditions of this member remain the same. The unemployment rate of mothers does not alter a lot in this period. The increasing trend in the inactivity of sons/daughters is mostly determined by a decreasing encouragement rate and the increasing dropout rate observed among these members in this period. These exogenous factors that determine the move to or the permanence in the inactivity could be related to the lower cost of education. We conclude that the use of individual job search models to understand aggregate unemployment and inactivity can be misleading, since the household search behavior matters in the labor supply decisions of secondary household earners. / As análises sobre taxas agregadas de emprego, desemprego e inatividade frequentemente ignoram a dinâmica dos membros das famílias no mercado de trabalho, a qual pode explicar puzzles na relação entre atividade econômica e participação no mercado de trabalho. A relevância das abordagens familiares para a oferta de trabalho está nas análises macroeconômicas sobre tendências agregadas, e também em análises microeconômicas do comportamento, decisões intrafamiliares e resultados de políticas. Apesar do consenso sobre as decisões conjuntas de oferta de trabalho dos membros da família, grande parte dos estudos são abordagens individuais e desconsideram filhos jovens como tomadores de decisão. Nesta tese, organizada em dois estudos, investigamos essas questões para o Brasil. No primeiro estudo, analisamos a decisão de ofertar trabalho de jovens entre 14 e 24 anos vivendo com os pais, em um exercício de forma reduzida. A tese colabora com a literatura empírica sobre os efeitos intrafamiliares de políticas, ao testar se o salário mínimo que afeta a renda dos pais impacta a decisão final dos filhos de ofertar trabalho. Também testamos a hipótese de agregação da renda, ao verificar se se a política tem efeitos distintos caso a pessoa elegível na família seja a mãe ou o pai. A estratégia de identificação é baseada em uma abordagem de intention-to-treat, e no uso do estimador de diferenças-em-diferenças. Outra inovação é o uso da PNADC (IBGE) para 2012-2016. Verificamos que a direção e a magnitude dos efeitos do salário mínimo dos pais, na oferta de trabalho dos filhos, dependem de quem é e de quantos são os membros elegíveis na família: o efeito é negativo, se a pessoa elegível é a mãe ou o pai, e é positivo, se ambos são elegíveis. Esses resultados reforçam o argumento em favor das abordagens intrafamiliares, uma vez que a hipótese de income-pooling não parece ser válida neste contexto. No segundo estudo, investigamos como as decisões de oferta de trabalho poderiam determinar os resultados agregados de desemprego e inatividade dos membros secundários. Desenvolvemos e estimamos um modelo estrutural de busca por emprego familiar com on-the-jobsearch. Estendemos o modelo de Dey e Flinn (2008), para permitir desemprego e inatividade de mães e filhos, sujeitos a choques em seus empregos e choques na renda dos pais. Esses choques podem determinar diferentes comportamentos de busca e aceitação de emprego, dependendo da situação do outro membro no mercado de trabalho. O modelo é estimado com a PME (IBGE) para 2004-2014. Realizamos simulações contrafactuais e verificamos que a taxa de desemprego dos filhos, decrescente entre 2004 e 2014, não teria se alterado no período, caso as condições e oportunidades de mercado de trabalho dos filhos tivessem continuado as mesmas de 2004. Já a taxa de desemprego das mães não sofre grandes alterações no período. A tendência crescente na inatividade dos filhos é determinada por uma taxa de encorajamento decrescente e uma taxa de desistência crescente, que refletem fatores exógenos que levam jovens trabalhadores à inatividade. Esses fatores exógenos podem estar relacionados ao menor custo da educação no período. Concluímos que o uso de modelos individuais de busca por emprego para entender o desemprego e a inatividade agregados deve ser desencorajado, pois o comportamento de busca familiar importa para as decisões de oferta de trabalho dos membros secundários da família.

Orientador: Carlos Salas Paez / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-24T15:11:05Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Kasonde_Clement_M.pdf: 2543320 bytes, checksum: c5a650cf010e5208fc95d2c67b9ae94a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014 / Resumo: De acordo com (CSO-LFS 2012), o governo da República da Zâmbia formula políticas empregatícias para melhorar as relações e condições de trabalho. Essas políticas também têm como objetivo reduzir a pobreza através da criação de empregos decentes para os cidadãos (CSO-LFS 2012). Para que as políticas sejam relevantes, o governo realiza avaliações econômicas através de diversos meios, como a condução de pesquisas sobre a força de trabalho (LFS), monitoramento das condições de vida (LCMS), monitoramento da performance econômica e outras iniciativas socioeconômicas relacionadas. Além disso, o governo também promove a educação para seus cidadãos uma vez que está consciente de que uma força de trabalho instruída e essencial para o desenvolvimento econômico (CSO-LFS, 2012). O fomento ao investimento local e estrangeiro em vários setores é também uma importante política que qualquer governo deveria implementar tendo em vista a criação de empregos decentes e redução da pobreza. Como argumenta Amartya Sem, o crescimento econômico se dá através do desenvolvimento das capacidades. De acordo com (Layard 2004; Offer 2006; Wilkinson and Picket 2010), o crescimento do PIB tem se mostrado uma referência inadequada do progresso social a parece exercer pouco ou nenhum impacto no bem-estar social. Essa visão é amparada pela noção de "desenvolvimento como liberdade" de Sem, que implica que as pessoas só desfrutam de liberdade genuína quando ela é baseada na segurança econômica e social. De acordo com o painel de especialistas na Comissão de Mensuração do Desempenho Econômico e Progresso social nomeado por Nicolas Sarkozy, ex-presidente da França, os termos de referência não aceitam que os cidadãos se adaptem às exigências da economia, mas sim que a economia seja remodelada para servir aos interesses dos cidadãos. De acordo com `Failure of a Model¿ de Ron Blackwell e David Coates, um estado democrático deve permanecer como um agente econômico indispensável, fornecendo serviços públicos de qualidade, desempenhando o papel de regulador, preparando o palco para os agentes econômicos e intervindo (através de políticas fiscais ou monetárias) de modo a acalmar os impulsos especulativos ou controlar uma recessão (ILO - IJLR, 2012). Também existe, como Tim Page coloca em seu trabalho, um forte argumento a favor da implementação e desenvolvimento por parte do governo de políticas industriais ativas, através da criação de marcos regulatórios claros, que forneçam capital que não venha diretamente do mercado aberto para o investimento. Por exemplo, US$ 750 milhões foram captados no mercado de capitais em 2012 para a realização de programas governamentais que visavam melhorias nas estradas públicas e na infraestrutura ferroviária, com o objetivo de alavancar o desenvolvimento social e econômico na Zâmbia / Abstract: According to (CSO-LFS 2012), the Government of the Republic of Zambia formulates employment and labour policies to improve workers¿ and employers¿ labour relations and employment conditions. These policies are also aimed at reducing poverty by the creation of decent jobs for the citizens (CSO-LFS 2012). In order to make relevant policies, the Government carries out assessments on the economy through various means such as conducting the Labour Force Surveys (LFS), Living Conditions Monitoring Surveys (LCMS), economic performance monitoring programs and other related socioeconomic initiatives. In addition, the Government also promotes education for its citizens as it realizes that an educated labour force is essential for economic development (CSO-LFS, 2012). The promotion of both local and foreign investment in various sectors is also an important policy any government should implement with a view to creating decent jobs and reduce poverty. As Amartya Sen has opined, economic growth has to be for the purpose and the most straightforward way of characterizing that goal is to say that citizens must be able to acquire the capabilities and that they need to choose lives that they have reasons to value (Sen, 1999). According to (Layard 2004; Offer 2006; Wilkinson and Picket 2010), measured increase in DGP has been seen to be inadequate benchmark of social progress and appears to have little or no impact on either happiness or life satisfaction. This view is supported by Sen¿s notion of `development as freedom¿, which entails that people can enjoy genuine liberty only insofar as it is based on economic and social security. According to the panel of experts on the Commission for Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress appointed by Nicolas Sarkozy, the former president of France, the terms of references for the committee of experts was that the objective is not to accept the world as it is and adapt citizens to the demands of the economy, but to reshape the economy to ensure that it serves the interest of the citizens. According to the `Failure of a Model¿ by Ron Blackwell and David Coates, as part of policy activism, a democratic state must remain as an indispensable actor in the economy, playing a role of providing quality public services and as a regulator, setting the stage for market actors and intervening (either through fiscal or monetary policy) in order to cool a speculative boom or halt a recession (ILO - IJLR, 2012). There is also, as Tim Page makes in his paper, a strong case for government to develop active industrial policies by setting clear regulatory frameworks, providing capital for investments that will not be funded on the open market. For instance, the 2012 Zambia¿s US$ 750 million Euro Bond" which was sourced from `Wall Street¿ capital market for public works programmes (PWP), is meant to improve inter alia; public roads and railway infrastructure in order to help stimulate economic and social development in Zambia / Mestrado / Economia Social e do Trabalho / Mestre em Desenvolvimento Econômico

Orientador: Rodolfo Hoffmann / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-24T21:36:14Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Oliveira_RegisBorgesde_D.pdf: 3846657 bytes, checksum: 6669c57606c98d3daae27bdc6afbce44 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014 / Resumo: Este trabalho analisa o impacto do salário mínimo sobre a distribuição dos rendimentos no setor agrícola brasileiro entre os anos de 1995 e 2012. Mais precisamente, estuda o efeito do salário mínimo na determinação do rendimento de diferentes categorias de trabalhadores agrícolas, quais sejam: empregados permanentes com ou sem carteira, empregados temporários com ou sem carteira e trabalhadores por conta-própria. Nos últimos 18 anos, o salário mínimo real apresentou crescimento sistemático com efeitos importantes sobre os rendimentos no mercado de trabalho. Paralelamente, observou-se, no Brasil, um movimento sem precedentes, que combinou o crescimento econômico com a redução da desigualdade, tanto quando se analisam os rendimentos do trabalho como o rendimento domiciliar per capita. Evidências empíricas mostraram que o SM foi um dos fatores que contribuiu para a redução da desigualdade, porém seu efeito é distinto quando são considerados as categorias de empregados agrícolas. Utilizando estatísticas descritivas e dois métodos não-paramétricos (densidades de kernel e regressões quantílicas) aplicados aos dados da PNAD/IBGE, o trabalho mostra que para os empregados sem carteira no setor agrícola o SM tem impacto concentrador, na medida em que afeta com mais intensidade os rendimentos localizados na parte superior da distribuição. Chama-se a atenção para a necessidade de aumento da formalização das relações de trabalho no setor, garantindo que os trabalhadores mais pobres sejam beneficiados pelos aumentos reais do salário mínimo / Abstract: This study aims to analyze the impact of the minimum wage on the wage distribution in the Brazilian¿s agricultural sector over the period 1992-2012. More precisely, we study the effect of the minimum wage policy in determining the wage of different categories of agricultural workers, as follows: permanents employees with or without register, temporaries employees with or without register and self-employed workers. Over the past 18 years the real value of the minimum wage has been increased systematically with important effects in the labor market. At the same time, the Brazilian economy has experienced an unprecedented tendency, which combined economic growth with reduced inequality when analyzing both the labor income and the per capita household income. Empirical evidences have showed that the minimum wage was one of the factors that contributed to the fall on inequality, but its effect is different when considering the agricultural employees' categories. Using descriptive statistics and two non-parametric methods (kernel density functions and quantile regressions) applied to the National Household Sample Survey (PNAD/IBGE) data, this work shows that for unregistered workers in the agricultural sector the real minimum wage growth has increased inequality, as far as it affects more intensely the upper tail of the wage distribution. We highlight the necessity of increasing the formalization among agricultural employees, ensuring that the poorest workers also be benefited by the real minimum wage increase / Doutorado / Desenvolvimento Economico, Espaço e Meio Ambiente / Doutor em Desenvolvimento Economico

The purpose of this thesis is to investigate the incentives regarding the education decisions, resulting from a minimum wage over the period 2005-2014. The question is investigated by comparing the changes in the wage dispersion and upper secondary graduation rate in 17 OECD countries. And then, by comparing the changes in the bites of the minimum wage and educational attainment for upper secondary students in 11 OECD countries, where minimum wages are regulated by law. The majority of previous research seem to point out a negative educational effect of minimum wages. However, this paper finds no evidence that increasing the minimum wage can decrease the high school graduation rate. A possible explanation is that the correlation between the higher employment prospect and educational attainment can create incentives for young individuals to undergo education. This study seems to be the first to investigate the educational effects of minimum wages using internationally comparative data.

The aim of this thesis was to analyze main causes of youth unemployment in countries of European Union. In order to assess main determinants of this negative phenomenon, an econometric model based on panel data was constructed. Source dataset, containing mainly Eurostat data, covers EU-28 countries in the 2000-2014 period. Results of a regression inclined that youth unemployment is effected mainly by overall economic development. Youth unemployment is more sensitive for economic downturns than unemployment in an adult age class. The model also suggested that cuts in payroll taxes and deregulation in the minimum wage legislation could have positive effect on youth employment. Based on the literature, reforms toward more practical and effective education system with elements of dual apprenticeship, could be also a positive step in tackling youth unemployment. However, an econometric-based proof of this hypothesis was not found.

After the split of the Czechoslovak Federal Republic (CSFR) to the Czech and Slovak Republics in 1993, both countries retain most ČSFR laws, including law no. 463/1991 Sb., o životním minimu. So the starting position was the same for both countries. A number of modifications of the legislative environment, which happened over the years in both countries, provides a suitable space for the realization of comparative analysis. The aim of this thesis is to compare the institute of subsistence minimum (SM) in the Czech and Slovak Republic between 1993-2015, and prove the assumptions that the institute of SM always held in both countries the same function, was highly motivational to reintegrate the unemployed into the workforce, and the greater amount of SM has always meant a higher income for people in material need in particular country. But the conducted comparative analysis does not confirm the assumptions.

The thesis analyzes how minimum wage influences unemployment in the Czech Republic. Firstly, the economic theory is researched and the conclusion is that the Czech labour market is very similar to a monopsony market due to the low mobility of the workforce and the low rate of immigration. Another result is that the level of wages in developed economies does not depend on the productivity of the workforce anymore, so minimum wage laws have psychological impacts rather than economical. The following part of this thesis is dedicated to the comparison of labour market indicators between european countries. The last chapter investigates the main hypothesis with a dataset from the Czech Republic between 1993-2014 using the econometric model. A 1% increase of real minimum wage resulted in a 0.01% increase in the general unemployment rate and a 0.1% increase of unemployment among the young population. But if the minimum wage will be raised during the times of real GDP growth, influence on unemployment will be eliminated.

This thesis investigated the influence imbalance between worker’s and employer’s interest in the EU policymaking. It is assumed that worker’s interests are disadvantaged, and this study is therefore examining the consultation of social partners under article 154 TFEU that considers social policy and can be used as a most-likely case for worker’s influence.The study is conducted by identifying conflicts between ETUC and BusinessEurope in their consultation replies and compare the different opinions with the Commission’s legislative proposal to find out which organisation that succeeded in influencing the Commission within each conflict.The results from this shows that each consultation generated between 0 to 6 conflicts and that most of the conflicts were won by BusinessEurope. This strengthens the assumption that there is an influence imbalance in EU legislation that makes the employer’s organisation BusinessEurope more influential than the trade unions ETUC.