The purpose of this paper is to study whether Sweden or Finland was initially better suited for the euro, and whether Sweden has benefited from remaining outside the third step of the European Monetary Union as opposed to Finland.  The analysis is based on the optimum currency area theory.  The findings show that Sweden initially was better suited for euro adoption than Finland, but the ECB’s monetary policy has suite Finland quite well.  However, Sweden appears to have benefited from remaining outside the euro.

The intent of this paper is to analyze the structural composition of the European Monetary Union and its implications for the European Financial Crisis, specifically with respect to Greece. This analysis will be driven by a trend analysis of several economic variables from 1999-2010. These variables range from the four requirements set under the Maastricht criteria, competitiveness indicators, and relative European trade balances, to international investment position. A quantitative and empirical analysis of this data finds that the Greek crisis was a result of structural issues with the EMU and the Greek government. The ECB’s inability to enforce the Maastricht Criteria and independent fiscal policy, as well as Greece’s inability to implement efficient fiscal and economic policy, resulted in growing imbalances within the Euro area, as well as a loss of competitiveness and irresponsible rise in sovereign debt for Greece. It is inferred that the EMU was ineffective in achieving its goals of integration; that Greece was not ready to join the EMU when it did; and therefore Greece as a Member State of the EMU was destined to fail.

The switch from a fixed exchange rate regime to a flexible exchange rate regime seldom goes smoothly. A major reason why devaluations are so disruptive is that countries are reluctant to abandon their fixed exchange rate regimes. This “reluctance to devalue” phenomenon is one of the puzzles in international finance. This dissertation makes towards understanding this “reluctance to devalue”. First, I investigate the factors that may influence the probability of a switch from a fixed to a flexible exchange rate regime using survival models. I find that pegs have non-monotonic duration dependence. Moreover, I find that GDP growth strongly influences the probability of abandoning a peg. Second, I propose that the “reluctance to devalue” could stem from uncertainty about the control over inflation after devaluation which raises the threshold of economic pain that could convince policy makers to devalue. I develop this argument in a rules-vs-discretion theoretical framework. Empirical analysis based on survey data from Bulgaria supports this hypothesis. Given that abandoning a fixed exchange rate regime is one of the three options that are available to countries on a peg, I investigate whether a periphery country's decision to abandon its peg is impacted by a potential move to a currency union. I find that the perception of “insurance” justified by expected-bailouts in a currency union increase the support for joining a currency union. The strength of this “safety net” perception is strong despite expected negative impact of the currency union on the country’s macroeconomic indicators.

The objective of this study is to investigate how the development regarding the short-term nominal interest rate in Portugal would have differed from that set by the ECB 1999-2011 in a situation where they did not enter the European Monetary Union. To do this, we use the Taylor rule, which incorporates economic activities such as inflation and output and how these deviates from their target. Constructing the Taylor rule, we estimate its reaction functions using an Ordinary Least Square Regression on annual data from the period 1988-1998. The reaction functions serve as weights on the deviations for inflation and output. The result reached is that the interest rate set by the ECB since 1999 is far below that interest rate required by the Portuguese economic situation. Further, we discuss how the influence in the setting of the ECB interest rate differs considering the member countries size.

This thesis looks at how European Single Currency (EURO) that began circulating on January 2002 as a legal tender will affect the European integration process. Because money has been accepted as one of the founding elements of a state for centuries, whether the Euro will be effective in the direction of a probable &ldquo / United States of Europe&rdquo / or not? Firstly, theoretical and historical roots of European integration are explained in the thesis as the basis of economic integration. The foundation, the stages and institutional mechanism of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) is looked at throughout the thesis with the theories of Regional Economic Integration and Optimum Currency Areas (OCA). The thesis reaches the conclusion that economic integration may gradually bring about the need for political integration in the EU, but not necessarily.

This thesis aims at evaluating the impact of euro upon European identity. By analyzing the theory of identity and the concept of money, this thesis reveals the relationship between currency and collective identity and applies this logic to the dynamics between euro and European identity. In order to grasp a better understanding, the thesis studies some selected member states in more depth and evaluates each one within their special circumstances. The findings of this thesis suggest that the constructive impact of euro upon European identity is determined by the level Europeanization or the strength of the sense of Europeanness in respective member states. To this extent the euro has a constructive impact upon European identity in member states in which Europeanization or European identity is perceived positively. On the other hand, in those member states in which Europeanization or European identity is perceived negatively, the euro has neither negative nor constructive impact.

This dissertation studies the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and its effects on foreign exchange markets and corporate cash holdings. These two potential effects are examined in the dissertation in two separate essays. The first essay examines the validity of the purchasing power parity (PPP) condition during three distinct exchange rate regimes (floating-rate, target-zone arrangement, and fixed-rate or common currency) from January 1973 through January 2004. My results support PPP, but I find that PPP during the common currency regime holds in fewer EMU countries than during the alternative exchange rate regimes. In addition, PPP between currency blocs holds for all countries examined during the first two regimes, but deteriorates after the introduction of the euro for the EMU countries as opposed to the non-EMU countries. I do not obtain strong evidence supporting PPP for the EMU countries since the euro adoption, but the faster mean reversion I observe in the few EMU countries where PPP does hold, may signal higher market efficiency and economic integration in the future. The second essay investigates corporate liquidity (cash holdings of firms) from 15 European Union (EU) countries [12 Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) countriesthat adopted the euro, and 3 non-EMU countries] from 1993 to 2002 using a dynamic panel data model. My main contributions to the corporate liquidity literature are fourfold. First, I provide evidence that creditor rights also affect corporate liquidity and their effect is more consistent than that of shareholder rights. Second, I show that the recent formation of EMU affects corporate liquidity. Debt and net working capital are better substitutes for cash in EMU countries than non-EMU countries. The adoption of a common currency reduces cash holdings in EMU countries. Third, my results suggest that agency theory plays an important role in explaining corporate liquidity. In particular, the agency view explains corporate liquidity better for EMU firms, probably because of an enhanced capital market integration that weakens the transaction and precautionary motives of holding cash. Fourth, I show that dealing with the endogeneity problem in corporate liquidity studies is important.

I study to what extent consumers’ expectations of inflation are formed differently in the short run for countries that belong to a monetary union, which implies a common inflation-targeting central bank, in contrast to countries with national inflationtar geting central banks. I measure if there are differences in consumers’ reaction s to inflation deviation from target, persistency of expected inflation and the ability to predict accurate inflation in the respective considered countries. I also measure average deviation and average absolute deviation of actual and expected inflation from the inflation target. The results suggest that the respective country’s average reaction to inflation deviation from target, degree of persistent expectation and the ability to predict accurate inflation rates are in the same range as well as the results for the average and average absolute deviations. Therefore, I conclude that there are no substantial differences in the formation of consumers’ expectations in countries belonging to a monetary union and countries with national inflation-targeting central banks, in the short run.

Daugiavaliutinės sistemos pakeitimas į vienvaliutinę Europos ekonominės ir pinigų sąjungos pagrindu – to paties integracijos ir konvergencijos proceso etapas. Pinigų politika, neseniai buvusi kiekvienos valstybės kompetencijoje, perduota į Europos centrinio banko rankas. Savanoriškas monetarinio nacionalinio nepriklausomumo atsisakymas ir perėjimas į konsoliduotą europinį lygį – unikalus valstybių bendradarbiavimo istorijos reiškinys. / The replacement of a multi-currency system by a single currency on the basis of the European Economic and Monetary Unit is the stage in the same integration and convergence process; monetary policy that recently was the matter of each state was handed over to the European Central Bank. A voluntary rejection of monetary national independence and transition to the consolidated European level is a unique phenomenon in the history of the cooperation of the states.

In this paper we analyse the implications of the euro for the international reserves in the Eurosystem. Two conceptually different effects of the changeover have to be distinguished: a technical effect that largely arises as a matter of accounting, and a behavioural effect that stems from the fact that the optimal demand of the aggregate Eurosystem is not equal to the sum of the optimal country levels. The technical effect arises from two main sources: the abolishment of the ECU-creating mechanism, and the redefinition of international reserves which precludes (former) reserves that were denominated in euro-currencies. As a result the average reserves of the Eurosystem in 1999 amounted to $287 billion, considerably less than in 1998 ($345 billion). We then derive a reserve demand function for the aggregate Eurosystem using panel data estimation techniques and simulate reserve demand for the situation after the regime shift. The optimal aggregate level of reserves turns out to be some $188 billion, which implies excess reserves in the Eurosystem amounting to approximately $100 billion in the year 1999. We go on by proposing a key by which this excess could be allocated to the individual countries taking the asymmetric distribution of reserves in the Eurosystem into account. Finally we classify and enumerate the proposals for making use of the estimated reserve overhang. (author's abstract) / Series: EI Working Papers / Europainstitut