Submitted by Maicon Juliano Schmidt (maicons) on 2015-03-21T13:51:44Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Jaqueline Soares do Nascimento.pdf: 1854549 bytes, checksum: 599702a42b67bce2e9c182b8cc815b48 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-03-21T13:51:44Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Jaqueline Soares do Nascimento.pdf: 1854549 bytes, checksum: 599702a42b67bce2e9c182b8cc815b48 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-02-22 / CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / UNISINOS - Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos / O objetivo desta dissertação é analisar comparativamente as integrações econômicas do Mercosul e da União Monetária Europeia. A metodologia é baseada na análise de estatística descritiva, com dados secundários relacionados à taxa de crescimento, taxa de desemprego, inflação, bem como às taxas de câmbio, no intuito de avaliar o desvio e correlação dessas variáveis nas integrações. De 1999 a 2011, os resultados apontaram significativa volatilidade nas economias do Mercosul e as flutuações observadas na taxa de crescimento, no emprego, preços e taxas de câmbio são minimamente correlacionadas dentro da região do Mercosul, os níveis de correlação no período de 2000 a 2011 foram muito inferiores aos verificados na década de 90. Os resultados indicaram um grau de abertura da economia baixo na União Monetária Europeia e um pouco maior no Mercosul neste mesmo período, o que indica maiores custos em abandonar a política cambial doméstica e ingressar em uma união monetária; a diversificação setorial no ano de 2011 foi verificada tanto nas economias do Mercosul quanto na UME; e a plena mobilidade do fator trabalho ainda é uma realidade distante para as integrações econômicas diante da baixa mobilidade na União Monetária Europeia e redução do percentual de migrantes intra sul-americanos no bloco latino. O Mercosul apresentou nítidos retrocessos quanto as excessivas medidas restritivas adotadas pelos países participantes e a dificuldade em implementar a livre circulação de bens e serviços entre os países. Na UME, a rigor os critérios de convergência não tem sido sistematicamente cumpridos pelos países aderentes à unificação monetária no ano de seu ingresso e essa flexibilização no que tange a convergência monetária da integração europeia permanece no período recente, pois as economias europeias ainda não conseguiram se recuperar. / The main goal of this master dissertation is analyzing the economical integration between Mercosur and European Monetary Union. The methodology selected is descriptive statistics using secondary data, which are related to growth rate, unemployment rate, inflation as well as exchange rate in order to evaluate the deviation and correlation among these variables in the economical integration. From 1999 to 2011 the results have shown significantly volatility in the Mercosur’s economies. The observed flotation on growth rate, employment, prices as well as exchange rates were minimally correlated within Mercosur’s region and the correlation level from 2000 to 2011 were lower than the nineties. The results indicated a lower grade of economic openness in the European Union and slightly better in the Mercosur during 2000- 2011 period, indicating higher costs to abandon the domestic cambial policy and commence in a monetary union; the sectorial diversification in 2011 was verified in both economies and the full labor mobility still is a distant reality for economic integration considering the lower mobility presented by European Union and the reduction of South American immigrants in the Latin bloc. The Mercosur has presented regression regarding restrictive measures adopted by the participating countries and the obstacles to implement the free circulation of goods and services among the countries. In the European Union, the convergence criteria have not been systematically fulfilled bythe countries, which adhered the monetary unification in the year of their admission. This flexibility in the monetary convergence in the European Union remains until nowadays, because the European economies could not retrieve from the financial crisis.

Submitted by Filipe dos Santos (fsantos@pucsp.br) on 2017-02-16T12:25:33Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Emelson Macedo Martins Pereira.pdf: 1309491 bytes, checksum: e34a0b2ff56ad35bf4992da520243e1c (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-02-16T12:25:33Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Emelson Macedo Martins Pereira.pdf: 1309491 bytes, checksum: e34a0b2ff56ad35bf4992da520243e1c (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-11-28 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / There is a turbulence in the recent history of the common European currency. The public debt crisis in the Eurozone has caused discussions about the monetary integration process. Until then, the Economic and monetary european union served as a reference for agreements such as Mercosur and NAFTA. In recent years, as an effect of the global economic crisis of 2008, a strong deficit increase has occurred in the Eurozone’s countries due to the need to stimulate demand and prevent bankruptcy of large private banks. Consequently, the public debt crisis in Greece, Italy, Ireland, Portugal and Spain creates uncertainty about the euro’s future. The public expenditure cuts, freezing of salaries, pensions and tax increment were immediate alternatives to contain deficits. Political and economic differences re-emerged on the continent, undermining the pact resulting from attempts to integrate the continent economically and politically. Thus, the European Union is experiencing the most controversial situation in its history. The main objective of this research is to understand the roots of the European economic crisis and investigate instruments for its containment, permeating the orthodox, keynesian and marxist paradigms / Há uma turbulência na história recente da moeda comum europeia. A crise da dívida pública na zona do euro vem ocasionando debates acerca do processo de integração monetária. Até então, a União econômica e monetária europeia (Ueme) servia como fonte de referência para acordos como o Mercosul e o NAFTA. Nos últimos anos, como efeito da crise econômica mundial de 2008, notou-se grande elevação dos déficits nos países da zona do euro em decorrência da necessidade de estímulo à demanda e de impedir que houvesse falência de grandes bancos privados. Consequentemente, a crise da dívida pública na Grécia, Itália, Irlanda, Portugal e Espanha gera incerteza com relação ao futuro do euro. Os cortes de gastos públicos, o aumento de impostos e congelamento de salários e aposentadorias foram alternativas imediatas para a contenção dos déficits. As divergências políticas e econômicas reemergiram no continente, abalando o pacto resultado de décadas de tentativas para integrar econômica e politicamente a Europa. Dessa forma, a União Europeia atravessa a situação mais controversa de sua história. O objetivo central da pesquisa é entender as raízes da crise econômica europeia e investigar os instrumentos para sua contenção, permeando os paradigmas ortodoxo, keynesiano e marxista

What explains IMF behavior in Europe between 2008 and 2012? Harshly criticized in Greece, yet tentatively praised in Hungary, the institution found itself playing different roles as it responded to a string of financial crises. Its programs varied substantially in terms of conditionality, financing, and private sector involvement. This thesis explores why, highlighting the changing global financial safety net, which is both expanding and becoming more decentralized due to the spectacular rise of regional financing arrangements (RFAs). Existing theories of IMF behavior assume the Fund to be a stand-alone institution and analyse financial assistance as the outcome from the interplay between creditors, borrowers, and staff. By focusing on dynamics within the IMF, however, they miss how developments outside the institution are increasingly shaping its behavior. This thesis brings in the role of changes in the institutional environment by drawing on the literature on regime complexity. The proliferation of RFAs alters the outside options of all actors, which affects their bargaining power. This opens the way for new strategies, through which creditors can entangle institutions by creating overlaps, borrowers can engage in confrontation between alternative financing institutions, and the IMF can find means to co-work with RFAs. These in turn affect whose preferences shape program design. This argument is tested empirically through process-tracing and comparing three cases of IMF-RFA cooperation in Europe. In Hungary, the IMF led the way in shaping a surprisingly 'generous' program with little constraint from the EU. However, in Latvia, the Fund found itself a 'junior partner' in a program driven by local authorities with the support of an European RFA. In Greece, the interests of creditors were paramount, securing IMF acquiescence through the threat of exclusion. These findings point to significant challenges for the Fund going forward. As RFAs continue to proliferate around the world, the IMF needs to avoid the temptation of striking even more Faustian bargains that keep it at the table of financial assistance at the cost of becoming a junior partner.

This thesis is principal focused on the question of the future existence and sustainability of the European integration project and its monetary element -- euro-area related to the competitiveness due to consequences of the global financial crisis, present situation and debt difficulties affecting states of Southern Europe, business and financially connected with other European countries. In my considerations and conclusions I also deal with prospective estate in case of various changes of the integration including disintegration, end of the single currency, as well as the factors, that might cause these changes and inflict serious consequences. It is necessary to reveal if the formed situation is acceptable for the member states. The aim of the thesis is to characterize and provide a piece of information about existing progress of the European integration in relation to treaties including competitiveness rating, outline serious issues especially endangering the euro-area and future stability of the whole European Union and analyze its impact, propose solutions and possible scenarios, eventually assess development perspectives and sustainability of the European Union as a complex.

The main principle of the thesis is to address issues concerning structural problems of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and assess economical impact of its potential break up. This in turn implies the need to discuss certain issues. Firstly, since the EMU is based on the concept of Optimal Currency Area (OCA); I start my research with the test whether EMU in its current structure fits the definition of OCA. Secondly, I provide the extensive study on the reasons of current crisis in order to understand the root causes. Thirdly, I assess the potential implications of different ways out of the current sovereign debt crisis.

Cette thèse a pour objectif d'étudier le lien entre les régimes de change, les mésalignements de change et les déséquilibres globaux. Elle est conduite dans le cadre d'un panel évolutif d'économies allant des pays en développement aux pays développés. Elle couvre trois principaux thèmes. Nous examinons d'abord les mésalignements de change dans la zone CFA et le projet d'union monétaire en Afrique de l'Ouest. Nous étudions ensuite les implications du choix par un pays d'un régime de change sur sa capacité de résilience aux déséquilibres externes. Enfin, nous analysons l'influence des mésalignements de change sur la persistance des déséquilibres globaux, ainsi que les interactions entre les déséquilibres macroéconomiques.Nous montrons que la monnaie ancre (l'euro) joue un rôle prédominant dans l'explication des mésalignements du franc CFA, toute chose égale par ailleurs, y compris les fondamentaux du franc CFA. Sur la base d'une nouvelle méthodologie basée sur la synchronisation des mésalignements que nous proposons, nous mettons en évidence qu'il existe des similarités entre les pays de l'UEMOA, le Ghana, la Gambie et la Sierra Leone dans le cadre d'une union monétaire. En revanche, les cycles ne sont pas suffisamment synchronisés entre ce bloc et le Nigeria qui reste structurellement plus proche des pays de la CEMAC.Concernant les pays d'Afrique subsaharienne, nous montrons que les régimes de change flexibles sont plus efficaces pour limiter déséquilibres externes et pour assurer la soutenabilité externe.Nous montrons que la persistance des déséquilibres de comptes courants est fortement et asymétriquement liés aux mésalignements de change dans les pays développés et que les déséquilibres macroéconomiques interagissent fortement à travers une relation causale. / This thesis aims to study the link between exchange rate regimes, exchange rate misalignments and external imbalances. Our research is conducted in the context of an evolving panel of economies ranging from developing countries to developed countries. Our investigation covers three main themes. We first we examine exchange rate misalignments in the CFA zone and the monetary union project in West Africa. We then we study the implications of the choices made by a country concerning exchange rate regimes with regard to their ability to be resilient to external imbalances in sub-Saharan African countries. Finally, we analyze the influence of exchange rate misalignments on the persistence of global imbalances, as well as the interactions between macroeconomic imbalances.We show that the anchor currency (the euro) plays a predominant role in explaining the CFA franc misalignments, all else being equal, including economics fundamentals of the CFA franc. Relying on a new methodology based on synchronization misalignments that we propose, we highlight that there are some similarities between the WAEMU countries, Ghana, Gambia and Sierra Leone. In contrast, the cycles of misalignments are not sufficiently synchronized between this block and Nigeria, which remains structurally closer to the CAEMC countries.With regard to sub-Saharan Africa, we show that the flexible exchange rate regimes are more effective in limiting external imbalances and to ensure external sustainability.We show that the persistence of current account imbalances is strongly and asymmetrically related to exchange rate misalignments in industrialized countries and that the macroeconomic imbalances strongly interact through a causal relationship.

Previous studies have discounted important factors and indirect channels that might contribute to business cycle synchronization (BSC) in the EU. We estimate the effects of market integration and economic policy coordination on bilateral business cycle correlations over the period 1995-2012 using a simultaneous equations model that takes into accounts both the endogenous relationships and unveils direct and indirect effects. The results suggest that (i) trade and FDI have a pronounced positive effect on BCS, particularly between incumbent and new EU members. (ii) Rising specialization does not decouple business cycles. (iii) The decline of income disparities in EU27 contributes to BCS, as converging countries develop stronger trade and FDI linkages. (iv) There is strong evidence that poor fiscal discipline of EU members is a major impediment of business cycle synchronization. (v) The same argument holds true for exchange rate fluctuations that hinder BCS, particularly in EU15. Since BCS is a fundamental prerequisite and objective in an effective monetary union, the EU has to promote market integration and strengthen the common setting of economic policies.

A adoção de uma moeda única por diferentes países muda significativamente a política econômica desses países. O objetivo desta dissertação, elaborada em forma de artigo, é estudar os efeitos da adoção do euro sobre a competitividade internacional dos países-membros da União Monetária Europeia (UME) com base no arcabouço teórico da teoria das áreas monetárias ótimas. A análise econométrica irá compreender um painel dinâmico com 12 países da UME nos períodos de 2002 a 2013 para inferir se a entrada de capitais teve impacto negativo na competitividade externa dos países periféricos da UME e como que os diferentes tipos de capitais interferiram sobre a taxa de câmbio real efetiva dos países da Zona do Euro. Conclui-se assim que não só a crise é capaz de permitir ganhos de competitividade entre os países da UME, como outros fatores mais desejáveis também, tal como a entrada de outros investimentos da conta financeira do balanço de pagamentos, a abertura comercial e os gastos do governo. Além disso, constata-se que o impacto da mobilidade de capital na competitividade é influenciado não só pelo tipo de capital como também pelo país que recebe esse fluxo. / Adopting a single currency in different countries changes significantly the economic policy of these countries. The objective of this dissertation, prepared in the form of an article is to study the effects of the adoption of the euro on the external competitiveness of member countries of the European Monetary Union (EMU) based on the theoretical framework of the theory of optimum currency areas. The econometric analysis will comprise a dynamic panel with 12 countries of the EMU in the period 2002-2013 to infer if the capital inflow had a negative impact on the external competitiveness of the peripheral countries of the EMU and how different types of capital flows interfered on the real effective exchange rate of the countries of the euro zone. It is therefore concluded that not only the crisis can allow gains in competitiveness between countries in the EMU, as more desirable factors as well, like the inflow of other investments of the financial account of the balance of payments, trade liberalization and government expenditures. In addition, it appears that the capital flows impact on competitiveness is influenced not only by the type of capital but also by the country that receives the flow.

A adoção de uma moeda única por diferentes países muda significativamente a política econômica desses países. O objetivo desta dissertação, elaborada em forma de artigo, é estudar os efeitos da adoção do euro sobre a competitividade internacional dos países-membros da União Monetária Europeia (UME) com base no arcabouço teórico da teoria das áreas monetárias ótimas. A análise econométrica irá compreender um painel dinâmico com 12 países da UME nos períodos de 2002 a 2013 para inferir se a entrada de capitais teve impacto negativo na competitividade externa dos países periféricos da UME e como que os diferentes tipos de capitais interferiram sobre a taxa de câmbio real efetiva dos países da Zona do Euro. Conclui-se assim que não só a crise é capaz de permitir ganhos de competitividade entre os países da UME, como outros fatores mais desejáveis também, tal como a entrada de outros investimentos da conta financeira do balanço de pagamentos, a abertura comercial e os gastos do governo. Além disso, constata-se que o impacto da mobilidade de capital na competitividade é influenciado não só pelo tipo de capital como também pelo país que recebe esse fluxo. / Adopting a single currency in different countries changes significantly the economic policy of these countries. The objective of this dissertation, prepared in the form of an article is to study the effects of the adoption of the euro on the external competitiveness of member countries of the European Monetary Union (EMU) based on the theoretical framework of the theory of optimum currency areas. The econometric analysis will comprise a dynamic panel with 12 countries of the EMU in the period 2002-2013 to infer if the capital inflow had a negative impact on the external competitiveness of the peripheral countries of the EMU and how different types of capital flows interfered on the real effective exchange rate of the countries of the euro zone. It is therefore concluded that not only the crisis can allow gains in competitiveness between countries in the EMU, as more desirable factors as well, like the inflow of other investments of the financial account of the balance of payments, trade liberalization and government expenditures. In addition, it appears that the capital flows impact on competitiveness is influenced not only by the type of capital but also by the country that receives the flow.

A adoção de uma moeda única por diferentes países muda significativamente a política econômica desses países. O objetivo desta dissertação, elaborada em forma de artigo, é estudar os efeitos da adoção do euro sobre a competitividade internacional dos países-membros da União Monetária Europeia (UME) com base no arcabouço teórico da teoria das áreas monetárias ótimas. A análise econométrica irá compreender um painel dinâmico com 12 países da UME nos períodos de 2002 a 2013 para inferir se a entrada de capitais teve impacto negativo na competitividade externa dos países periféricos da UME e como que os diferentes tipos de capitais interferiram sobre a taxa de câmbio real efetiva dos países da Zona do Euro. Conclui-se assim que não só a crise é capaz de permitir ganhos de competitividade entre os países da UME, como outros fatores mais desejáveis também, tal como a entrada de outros investimentos da conta financeira do balanço de pagamentos, a abertura comercial e os gastos do governo. Além disso, constata-se que o impacto da mobilidade de capital na competitividade é influenciado não só pelo tipo de capital como também pelo país que recebe esse fluxo. / Adopting a single currency in different countries changes significantly the economic policy of these countries. The objective of this dissertation, prepared in the form of an article is to study the effects of the adoption of the euro on the external competitiveness of member countries of the European Monetary Union (EMU) based on the theoretical framework of the theory of optimum currency areas. The econometric analysis will comprise a dynamic panel with 12 countries of the EMU in the period 2002-2013 to infer if the capital inflow had a negative impact on the external competitiveness of the peripheral countries of the EMU and how different types of capital flows interfered on the real effective exchange rate of the countries of the euro zone. It is therefore concluded that not only the crisis can allow gains in competitiveness between countries in the EMU, as more desirable factors as well, like the inflow of other investments of the financial account of the balance of payments, trade liberalization and government expenditures. In addition, it appears that the capital flows impact on competitiveness is influenced not only by the type of capital but also by the country that receives the flow.