Thesis (MComm)--Stellenbosch University, 2012. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The implementation or adaption of a common currency by a group of countries has managerial as well as risk management implications for these emerging market multinational corporations (EMNC’S). This study sets out to examine these business management implications and the computation of a fictitious uniform currency for the SADC region, “SADC dollar” to derive its optimality should the SADC dollar replace the ZAR. This optimality was determined by comparing the basis risk of currency futures hedge positions using both the USD/ZAR on a ZAR currency index and USD/SADC dollar on a SADC currency index as the respective underlings. Findings indicated that the basis risk and currency risk declined over a time-series analysis which implied better business management decisions, increased profit margins, larger firm value and more effective hedged positions for the companies in South Africa that may adopt this new currency. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die implementering of aanvaarding van ‘n gemene wisselkoers deur ‘n groep SADC-lande het besigheidsbestuurs- asook risikobestuursimplikasies vir SADC multinasionale maatskappye. Hierdie studie beoog om die implikasies vir bestuur te ondersoek en te bepaal hoe die skep van ‘n fiktiewe eenvormige wisselkoers vir die SADC-streek gebruik kan word, dit is, sou die “SADC dollar” die ZAR vervang. Hierdie optimaliteit is bereken deur die basisrisiko van verskeie valutatermynkontrakte vergelyk. Die instrument onderliggend aan die verskillende valutatermynkontrakte was die VSA dollar/rand wisselkoers wat op ‘n Suid-Afrikaanse rand (ZAR) valutaindeks gemodelleer is en die VSA dollar/SADC dollar wat op ‘n SADC valutaindeks gemodelleer was. Die resultate van die navorsing op die gekose tydreeks dui daarop dat die basisrisiko sowel as die valutarisiko moontlik sal afneem. Die implikasie hiervan is moonlik beter besigheidsbestuurs-besluite, toename in winsmarges, toenames in maatskapywaardes en meer effektiewe skans posisies vir maatskappye in Suid–Afrika wat hierdie eenvormige wisselkoers sou implementeer.

Thesis (MBA (Business Management))--University of Stellenbosch, 2009.

Why was it so difficult for European Union countries to establish the European Central Bank? In the 1992 Maastricht Treaty, EU governments committed themselves to an independent, stability-oriented ECB, and to ensuring low inflation rates and low budget deficits. Between 1992 and 1998, they fought over the terms of membership and whether European economic policy should promote growth more than stability. Political parties transmit voter preferences over growth and stability into national policy on the basic priorities of monetary union, while the arrangement of economic institutions reinforces or frustrates the ambitions of a governing coalition. This not only leads to governments with clear priorities that conflict at the European level. Governing coalitions frustrated by economic institutions that thwart their economic policies can promote monetary union in order to force changes domestically. Therefore, conflict arose among stability-oriented governments over whether low budget deficits and inflation were to be achieved before EMU was launched. This reflected the conflict between France and Germany. The dissertation examines the links between the politics of economic policy in France, Germany and Spain, and their policies toward Economic and Monetary Union.

"Essays on Social Conflict and Reform" consists of four essays that study the political economy of policy reform. Social Conflict with Passive Groups examines conflicts over the distribution of income where groups that engage in appropriative activities as well as groups that are passive in this respect participate. Democratization, Rent Seeking, and Economic Transition uses a model of social conflict to determine the political and economic reform space and the economic performance in a society undergoing a transition from authoritarian rule to democracy and market economy. Constitutional Constraints and Redistributive Activities analyzes the effects of constitutional constraints against redistribution on the outcome of social conflicts. The Break-up of the Ruble Zone: Undertaking Monetary Reform while Building Democratic Institutions applies the theoretical findings of this dissertation to explain differences in monetary reform between countries in the former Soviet Union. / SITE, Stockholm Institute of Transition

Doctorat en sciences sociales, politiques et économiques / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

No description available.

The theory of optimum currency areas states that the more two countries trade with each other, the better candidates they are for a currency union. In terms of the endogeneity argument, convergence follows from joining a currency union and the integration process itself turns the countries into optimal currency areas. The potential increase in trade is regarded as one of the most important benefits of a currency union. Indirect evidence from studies on the effect of exchange rate volatility on trade does not support this claim. Rose argues that the common currency effect on trade is separate from the effect of the elimination of exchange rate variability and finds a large positive effect of a currency union on trade. Although his methodology has met with criticism, most studies find a positive estimate. A meta-analysis of the studies confirms that a common currency has a statistically and economically significant trade-creating effect. / Economics / M.Com. (Economics)

Cette thèse analyse la convergence au sein d’une union monétaire par l’intermédiaire de la dynamique des prix et des taux de change d’équilibre. Dans le premier chapitre nous présentons les caractéristiques générales des zones monétaires, ainsi que l’historique de celles que nous étudions : l’UEM et la zone CFA. Le deuxième chapitre traite de la convergence des prix au sein de la zone euro par le biais de modèles à transition lisse. La convergence est non-linéaire, et les vitesses d’ajustements sont différentes selon les pays. Ceci s’explique par les différences dans l’évolution de la compétitivité-prix, les rigidités du marché du travail, mais aussi les schémas de spécialisation. Le troisième chapitre évalue la validité de la Parité des Pouvoirs d’Achat absolue au sein de l’UEM à travers des tests de racine unitaire et de cointégration en panel de deuxième et de troisième générations. Dans l’ensemble, la dynamique des prix apparaît hétérogène et dépendante des périodes d’évolution de l’UEM ainsi que des groupes de pays considérés. Le quatrième chapitre relie les déséquilibres externes à la crise de la dette souveraine que connait l’UEM depuis 2009. Nous montrons que lorsqu’un pays appartenant à une union monétaire fait face à un déséquilibre externe vis-à-vis d’un autre pays membre, l’écart de taux d’intérêts correspondant tend à s’accroître. De plus, lorsque ces déséquilibres persistent, ils peuvent déclencher une crise de la balance des paiements. Enfin le dernier chapitre s’intéresse à la pérennité de la zone CFA. En comparant cette dernière à un échantillon composé d’autres pays d’Afrique Subsaharienne, nous mettons en évidence que malgré son non-respect des critères d’optimalité, la zone CFA a favorisé les équilibres internes et externes, et facilité les ajustements aussi bien au niveau de l’ensemble de la zone, qu’au niveau individuel. Ceci laisse penser que cette union est soutenable. / This thesis analyses the convergence among a monetary union through the price dynamics and the equilibrium exchange rates. In the first chapter we introduce the main characteristics of the monetary areas, as well as the history of those under study: the EMU and the CFA franc zone. The second chapter deals with the price convergence inside the Eurozone via smooth transition regressions. This process is non-linear, and adjustment speeds are dissimilar depending on the countries. It is explained by the differences in the evolution of price competitiveness, labor market rigidities, but also specialization patterns. The third chapter investigates the validity of the absolute Purchasing Power Parity within EMU thanks to second and third generation panel unit root and cointegration tests. On the whole, price dynamics seems to be heterogeneous and depends on the EMU period and group countries considered. The fourth chapter links external disequilibria to the sovereign debt crisis experienced by EMU since 2009. We exhibit that when a country belonging to a monetary union faces an external disequilibrium relative to its main partner, the interest rates spread tends to increase. Moreover, when these disequilibria are persistent, they may trigger a balance of payments crisis. Finally, the last chapter pays attention to the permanence of CFA franc zone. By comparing the latter to a sample of other Sub-Saharan African countries, we evidence that the CFA franc zone has fostered external and internal balances, facilitated adjustments in the zone as a whole, as well as in each of its member, even if it does not fulfill the optimality criteria. This suggests that the union is sustainable.

Mercantile Law / LL. D.

The theory of optimum currency areas states that the more two countries trade with each other, the better candidates they are for a currency union. In terms of the endogeneity argument, convergence follows from joining a currency union and the integration process itself turns the countries into optimal currency areas. The potential increase in trade is regarded as one of the most important benefits of a currency union. Indirect evidence from studies on the effect of exchange rate volatility on trade does not support this claim. Rose argues that the common currency effect on trade is separate from the effect of the elimination of exchange rate variability and finds a large positive effect of a currency union on trade. Although his methodology has met with criticism, most studies find a positive estimate. A meta-analysis of the studies confirms that a common currency has a statistically and economically significant trade-creating effect. / Economics / M.Com. (Economics)