This dissertation offers a conceptual framework capturing forecasting related activities in a formal organizational context, and it empirically assesses how and how well an organization utilizes forecasting tools and results. Specifically, a multilevel model is formulated that suggests that forecasting capabilities and forecasting processes predict forecasting effectiveness. The model is tested through a field study utilizing a qualitative and quantitative research design. The findings suggest that there are great differences in how forecasting is done among mangers within the same organization, and that in the absence of process congruency (i.e., similar procedures for similar forecasters), the use of a bottom-up approach to forecasting contributes to inconsistent forecasting results. Further, the findings suggest that when it is difficult to establish solid market information, managers often look to competitors in order to establish pseudo-estimates of supply and demand. With respect to content congruency (i.e., the imposition of higher level forecasts onto lower level entities), the dissertation examines the consequences of making decisions based on data from different levels of analyses (and with different geographic scopes).The results highlight the consequences of relying on higher level forecasts when a mismatch exists between organizational and national “footprints”. Using various economic variables to predict housing starts across levels, the analyses found disparate results for the lower level of analysis. The results also reveal great differences in the strength of the forecasting models between different levels of analysis and between different entities at the same level. Different combinations of variables contribute toward predicting the key dependent variable, housing starts, at different levels, and even between geographic markets at the same level of analysis. The findings suggest that traditional organizational forecasting performed at the national level presents decision makers with a “hit or miss” scenario when trying to predict housing demand in the local markets. The inability to generate strong forecasts utilizing the same variables in different markets appears to be problematic. Thus, a “bottoms-up” approach to the technical generation of forecasts is desirable Recommendations for both future research and practice are suggested. / Ph. D.

Introdução: A precisão e a confiabilidade das estimativas do consumo alimentar são os principais desafios nos estudos sobre nutrição e saúde, visto que a medida dietética não é isenta de erros e que a dieta humana é de natureza variável. Um dos principais componentes de variabilidade da dieta é a variação intrapessoal, que representa a variação da ingestão dos indivíduos ao longo dos dias. Do ponto de vista estatístico, a variância intrapessoal constitui uma importante fonte de erro na análise e interpretação dos dados dietéticos por atenuar medidas de associação, como coeficientes de regressão e risco relativo, e aumentar a proporção dos indivíduos nos extremos da curva de distribuição. Objetivos: Estimar a razão de variâncias da ingestão de energia e nutrientes e calcular o número de medidas dietéticas necessárias à estimativa do consumo habitual de crianças brasileiras. Métodos: Trata-se de um estudo transversal realizado em 2007 que coletou dados de 3150 crianças de 1 a 6 anos matriculadas em creches e pré-escolas das cidades de Manaus, Natal, Recife, Brasília, Cuiabá, Rio de Janeiro, Viçosa, São Paulo e Caxias do Sul. Em cada cidade, foram avaliadas 250 crianças de creches públicas e 100 de creches particulares. Dados socioeconômicos, antropométricos e de consumo alimentar foram coletados. A pesagem direta de alimentos e o registro alimentar foram os métodos de avaliação do consumo adotados. Modelos de regressão multinível com variância de estrutura complexa foram utilizados para estimar a variância intrapessoal e a variância interpessoal segundo faixa etária (1 a 2 anos; 3 a 6 anos). A variância intrapessoal foi obtida para cada criança e modelada como uma função linear da idade. Calculou-se o número de dias baseado nas razões de variâncias dos nutrientes e no coeficiente de correlação (r) entre a ingestão observada e a ingestão habitual. Resultados: Fibras totais e gorduras apresentaram as maiores razões de variâncias (acima de 6,00), enquanto cálcio, ácido pantotênico e fósforo 5 apresentaram as menores razões (1,33 a 2,30). Considerando r=0,8, são necessários de 2 a 37 dias de avaliação da dieta no grupo de crianças com idade entre 1 e 2 anos, e entre 2 e 16 dias nas crianças de 3 a 6 anos para a estimativa da ingestão habitual. Observou-se, também, tendência de aumento da variância intrapessoal de energia e macronutrientes com a idade da criança. Conclusão: As elevadas razões de variâncias reforçam a necessidade pela coleta de um grande número de medidas dietéticas nas crianças brasileiras e os resultados apontam para mudanças na variância intrapessoal com a idade / Background: The precision and reliability of estimates of food intake are the major challenges in studies about diet and health, since dietary measurement is prone to errors and the human diet exhibits great variation. One of the main components of dietary variability is the within-person variation, which represents the day-to-day variation of intake. From a statistical point of view, the within-person variance is an important source of errors in analysis and interpretation of dietary data because it attenuates the measurements of association, such as coefficients of regression and relative risks, and increases the proportion of individuals on tails of the distribution curve. Objectives: To estimate the variance ratio of energy and nutrient intakes and to calculate the number of days of dietary assessment to the estimation of usual nutrient intakes among Brazilian children. Methods: This is a cross-sectional study performed in 2007 that comprised 3150 children (1 to 6 years) attending daycare and preschools in the municipalities of Manaus, Natal, Recife, Brasília, Cuiabá, Rio de Janeiro, Viçosa, São Paulo and Caxias do Sul. In each municipality, 250 children from public schools and 100 children from private schools were included. Socio-demographic and anthropometric data as well as food intake were collected. Food consumption was measured through weighed food record and estimated food record. Multilevel regression models with complex variance structure were fitted to estimate the within- and between-person variances according to age group (1 to 2 years; 3 to 6 years). The within-person variance was modeled as a linear function of the childs age. The number of days was calculated according to the variance ratio of the nutrients and a hypothetical correlation coefficient (r) between observed and usual intake. Results: Total fiber and total fat showed the greatest variance ratios (>6.00), whereas calcium, pantothenic acid, and phosphorus showed the least ratios (1.33 to 7 2.30). Estimating the usual intake of the nutrients (considering r=0.8) requires between 2 and 37 days for children aged 1 to 2 years, and between 2 and 16 days are necessary for children aged 3 to 6 years. It was also observed an increase in the variance ratios of energy and macronutrients according to age of the child. Conclusion: The elevated variance ratios reinforce the need for collection of a great number of dietary measures in Brazilian children. In addition, the results suggest changes in within-person variance according to age

Introdução: A precisão e a confiabilidade das estimativas do consumo alimentar são os principais desafios nos estudos sobre nutrição e saúde, visto que a medida dietética não é isenta de erros e que a dieta humana é de natureza variável. Um dos principais componentes de variabilidade da dieta é a variação intrapessoal, que representa a variação da ingestão dos indivíduos ao longo dos dias. Do ponto de vista estatístico, a variância intrapessoal constitui uma importante fonte de erro na análise e interpretação dos dados dietéticos por atenuar medidas de associação, como coeficientes de regressão e risco relativo, e aumentar a proporção dos indivíduos nos extremos da curva de distribuição. Objetivos: Estimar a razão de variâncias da ingestão de energia e nutrientes e calcular o número de medidas dietéticas necessárias à estimativa do consumo habitual de crianças brasileiras. Métodos: Trata-se de um estudo transversal realizado em 2007 que coletou dados de 3150 crianças de 1 a 6 anos matriculadas em creches e pré-escolas das cidades de Manaus, Natal, Recife, Brasília, Cuiabá, Rio de Janeiro, Viçosa, São Paulo e Caxias do Sul. Em cada cidade, foram avaliadas 250 crianças de creches públicas e 100 de creches particulares. Dados socioeconômicos, antropométricos e de consumo alimentar foram coletados. A pesagem direta de alimentos e o registro alimentar foram os métodos de avaliação do consumo adotados. Modelos de regressão multinível com variância de estrutura complexa foram utilizados para estimar a variância intrapessoal e a variância interpessoal segundo faixa etária (1 a 2 anos; 3 a 6 anos). A variância intrapessoal foi obtida para cada criança e modelada como uma função linear da idade. Calculou-se o número de dias baseado nas razões de variâncias dos nutrientes e no coeficiente de correlação (r) entre a ingestão observada e a ingestão habitual. Resultados: Fibras totais e gorduras apresentaram as maiores razões de variâncias (acima de 6,00), enquanto cálcio, ácido pantotênico e fósforo 5 apresentaram as menores razões (1,33 a 2,30). Considerando r=0,8, são necessários de 2 a 37 dias de avaliação da dieta no grupo de crianças com idade entre 1 e 2 anos, e entre 2 e 16 dias nas crianças de 3 a 6 anos para a estimativa da ingestão habitual. Observou-se, também, tendência de aumento da variância intrapessoal de energia e macronutrientes com a idade da criança. Conclusão: As elevadas razões de variâncias reforçam a necessidade pela coleta de um grande número de medidas dietéticas nas crianças brasileiras e os resultados apontam para mudanças na variância intrapessoal com a idade / Background: The precision and reliability of estimates of food intake are the major challenges in studies about diet and health, since dietary measurement is prone to errors and the human diet exhibits great variation. One of the main components of dietary variability is the within-person variation, which represents the day-to-day variation of intake. From a statistical point of view, the within-person variance is an important source of errors in analysis and interpretation of dietary data because it attenuates the measurements of association, such as coefficients of regression and relative risks, and increases the proportion of individuals on tails of the distribution curve. Objectives: To estimate the variance ratio of energy and nutrient intakes and to calculate the number of days of dietary assessment to the estimation of usual nutrient intakes among Brazilian children. Methods: This is a cross-sectional study performed in 2007 that comprised 3150 children (1 to 6 years) attending daycare and preschools in the municipalities of Manaus, Natal, Recife, Brasília, Cuiabá, Rio de Janeiro, Viçosa, São Paulo and Caxias do Sul. In each municipality, 250 children from public schools and 100 children from private schools were included. Socio-demographic and anthropometric data as well as food intake were collected. Food consumption was measured through weighed food record and estimated food record. Multilevel regression models with complex variance structure were fitted to estimate the within- and between-person variances according to age group (1 to 2 years; 3 to 6 years). The within-person variance was modeled as a linear function of the childs age. The number of days was calculated according to the variance ratio of the nutrients and a hypothetical correlation coefficient (r) between observed and usual intake. Results: Total fiber and total fat showed the greatest variance ratios (>6.00), whereas calcium, pantothenic acid, and phosphorus showed the least ratios (1.33 to 7 2.30). Estimating the usual intake of the nutrients (considering r=0.8) requires between 2 and 37 days for children aged 1 to 2 years, and between 2 and 16 days are necessary for children aged 3 to 6 years. It was also observed an increase in the variance ratios of energy and macronutrients according to age of the child. Conclusion: The elevated variance ratios reinforce the need for collection of a great number of dietary measures in Brazilian children. In addition, the results suggest changes in within-person variance according to age

Basé sur une étude empirique, la présente thèse apporte un éclairage sur les compétences de lecture, de décodage et de compréhension orale en allemand chez des élèves plurilingues immigrés et leurs homologues monolingues suisses allemands. Un échantillon d’environ 500 élèves plurilingues et de 160 élèves monolingues constitue la base empirique de ce travail qui nous a servi à examiner certains éléments de controverses ainsi que la capacité prédictive de la théorie de la «Simple View of Reading » ( Philipp B. Gough & Tunmer, 1986 p. 85; Hoover & Gough, 1990). Nous constatons que la compréhension orale et le décodage possèdent une forte valeur prédictive pour les compétences en lecture. Cette valeur prédictive dépend cependant fortement de la façon dont les compétences en lecture sont opérationnalisées et elle est plus élevée dans le groupe des lecteurs débutants (en CE1/CE2). La modélisation des compétences de lecture d’après la la « Simple View of Reading Theory » réussit mieux pour des tests de lecture courts, à choix multiples et sous contrainte de temps que pour des tests à base de textes plus longs et authentiques, qui proposent différents formats de réponses. L’intégration du facteur de l’intelligence dans le modèle de prédiction est plus bénéfique pour le groupe des lecteurs plus expérimentés (CM2/6ème). L’utilisation de la méthode des analyses de régressions multiples à plusieurs niveaux (MLwiN) a mis en évidence que l’apport du QI est plus important lorsqu’on examine les compétences au niveau des classes qu’au niveau des élèves pris individuellement. Nous écartons donc la proposition d’une substitution du facteur compréhension orale au profit du QI comme Tiu, Thompson et Lewis (2003) l’ont proposé. / This work aimed to examine controversial elements as well as the explanatory strength of the “Simple View of Reading Theory”. It has been based on empirical data analyses of language abilities of about 500 multilingual and 160 monolingual school graders in the German speaking part of Switzerland (Philipp B. Gough & Tunmer, 1986; Hoover & Gough, 1990). We found evidence in both groups (monolingual and multilingual pupils) for a strong impact of listening comprehension and decoding in explaining reading comprehension abilities. The degree of the explained variance was determined by the test used to evaluate reading comprehension and by the age of pupils, showing a bigger effect with young readers (2nd/3rd graders) than with more experienced readers (5th / 6th graders). Modeling reading comprehension abilities based on the «Simple View of Reading Theory» proved to be more successful when using short, time limited, multiple choice reading tests than using a test with longer, authentic texts and offering a mixture of different response formats. The integration of the intelligence factor into our model improved the prediction of reading abilities in the group of the more experiences readers (5th / 6th graders). The improvement though was essentially situated at the level of school classes as unit of analyses. On the individual level only minor improvements were observed. Therefore we would reject the idea of eliminating the listening comprehension factor in favor of an integration of the IQ factor that has been suggested by Tiu, Thompson and Lewis (2003).

此篇論文之目的乃是探討品牌心理擁有感之前因與結果因素，本研究欲探討之三個與品牌相關的構念，包括公司品牌管理、品牌心理擁有感、品牌公民行為。第一個構念為公司品牌管理，代表能改善不同利害關係人對公司品牌認知與態度之組織作法；第二構念為品牌心理擁有感，代表能使員工對公司品牌產生所有權感受的心理狀態；第三個構念為品牌公民行為，代表員工擁有品牌導向之利他行為並將品牌精神活出來。本研究採取了兩個步驟，以探討品牌心理擁有感之前因與結果因素，本研究首先進行了公司品牌管理、品牌心理擁有感與品牌公民行為之量表發展，其次，本研究探索了公司品牌管理、品牌心理擁有感、品牌公民行為與品牌權益之跨層次關係。 本研究根據Hinkin (1998)之準則進行量表發展，在公司品牌管理的部分，本研究從台灣連鎖商店的主管獲得275份樣本。在探索性因素分析與驗證性因素分析後，本研究獲得五項公司品牌管理的因素，包括：公司品牌管理的溝通與評估、公司品牌管理之部門間協調、公司品牌管理之領導與利害關係人互動、公司品牌管理之訓練與徵選、公司品牌管理之文化與願景，結果顯示公司品牌管理量表具有良好的穩定性與效度。 在品牌心理擁有感與品牌公民行為的部分，本研究從台灣連鎖商店的第一線員工獲得361份樣本。在探索性因素分析與驗證性因素分析後，本研究獲得三項品牌心理擁有感的因素，包括：品牌自我效能感、品牌責任感、品牌認同感與歸屬感。同樣地，在探索性因素分析與驗證性因素分析後，本研究獲得三項品牌公民行為的因素，包括：品牌之運動家精神與背書、品牌之幫助行為、品牌之考量與提升，結果顯示品牌心理擁有感與品牌公民行為之量表具有良好的穩定性與效度。 從個人層次的分析結果發現，品牌心理擁有感正向影響品牌公民行為，並且大部分之品牌心理擁有感的因素正向影響品牌公民行為的因素。從跨層次的分析結果發現，公司品牌管理正向影響品牌心理擁有感與品牌公民行為，組織層次的品牌公民行為正向影響品牌權益。本研究亦發現，品牌心理擁有感在公司品牌管理與品牌公民行為之間扮演跨層次的中介角色。從跨層次的細部分析結果發現，許多公司品牌管理之因素正向影響品牌心理擁有感與品牌公民行為之因素。本研究亦探討了研究結果討論、研究貢獻、研究限制與未來研究。 / This thesis aims to investigate the antecedent and consequence of brand psychological ownership. Three major constructs related to branding efforts and results studied and explored by this research include corporate branding, brand psychological ownership, and brand citizenship behavior. The first construct, corporate branding, represents practices that improve brand cognitions and brand attitude of multiple stakeholders. The second construct, brand psychological ownership, represents the psychological state that makes employees produce feeling of ownership toward the corporate brand. The third construct, brand citizenship behavior, shows that employees have brand-oriented altruistic spirit and live the brand. In order to explore the antecedent and consequence of brand psychological ownership, two major steps are conducted by this study. First, this study conducts the scale developments of corporate branding, brand psychological ownership, and brand citizenship behavior. Second, this study explores the multilevel relation between corporate branding, brand psychological ownership, brand citizenship behavior, and brand equity. The guidelines of Hinkin (1998) are followed as the procedures of scale development. As for the scale development of corporate branding, a survey conducted among a sample of 275 managers from the franchise organizations in Taiwan was undertaken. Five factors of corporate branding obtained after EFA and CFA include: communication and evaluation of corporate branding, departmental coordination of corporate branding, leadership and interaction with stakeholders of corporate branding, training and selection of corporate branding, and vision and culture of corporate branding. The results represent a scale of corporate branding with good reliability and validity. As for scale developments of brand psychological ownership and brand citizenship behavior, a survey conducted among a sample of 361 customer-facing employees from the franchise organizations in Taiwan was undertaken. Three factors of brand psychological ownership obtained after EFA and CFA include: brand self-efficacy, brand accountability and identification and belongingness of brand. Three factors of brand citizenship behavior obtained after EFA and CFA include: sportsmanship and endorsement of brand, helping behavior of brand, and consideration and enhancement of brand. The results represent scales of brand psychological ownership and brand citizenship behavior with good reliability and validity. In the individual level analyses, brand psychological ownership has a positive effect on brand citizenship behavior, and most factors of brand psychological ownership have positive effects on factors of brand citizenship behavior. In the multilevel analyses, results demonstrate that corporate branding has positive effects on brand psychological ownership and brand citizenship behavior. Organizational-level brand citizenship behavior positively affects brand equity. It is also found that brand psychological ownership fully mediates the relationship between corporate branding and brand citizenship behavior. Detailed analyses show that many factors of corporate branding have positive effects on different factors of brand psychological ownership and brand citizenship behavior. Most factors of brand psychological ownership positively affect factors of brand citizenship behavior. Discussion, contributions, implication, limitation, and future study are also discussed.