Thesis (Ph. D.)--Texas State University-San Marcos, 2006. / Vita. Appendices: leaves 104-117. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 118-124).

Thesis (M.M.A.S.) -- U.S. Army Command and General Staff College, 2009. / "AD-A512 377." Includes bibliographical references.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Texas State University-San Marcos, 2006. / Vita. Appendix: leaves 102-102. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 106-112).

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Texas State University-San Marcos, 2006. / Vita. Appendices: leaves 104-117. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 118-124).

Natural disasters have previously been found to have a positive effect on fertility due to incentives to use births to replace children lost and insure against increased risk. Using a simple demand framework for children, this paper contributes to the literature by re-examining this interaction under a new set of methodological conditions through the inclusion of a wider spectrum of cases than often used in previous works. OLS fixed effects regressions are performed using data from Indonesia and no support for the hypothesis is found. The findings are robust and contrast with former research. To provide nuance and insight to the results, the wanted total fertility rate and the prevalence of contraceptive use are utilised as alternative dependent variables.

This paper summarizes the experience of the Psychological Brigades conducted in 2001 in response to an earthquake that battered the southern part of the country, causing countless human and material losses and leaving over 200 thousand victims. The brigades gathered about 100 people among faculty members, students and graduated students from the Department of Psychology of the Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, who went to the affected areas to provide psychological support. The complete intervention is presented, including the design previous to the intervention, techniques used during the intervention and the evaluation of the results. These include the impact on the assisted population, the factors that contributed to the intervention success, as well as the impact on the brigades’ members. The assisted population specially remarks the value of feeling heard and accompanied, and of having a space to talk and meditate about its experience, fears and fantasies. / El presente trabajo resume la experiencia de las Brigadas Psicológicas llevadas a cabo en el año 2001 como respuesta al terremoto que azotó al sur del país, causando innumerables pérdidas humanas y materiales y más de doscientos mil damnificados. Las brigadas con­gregaron alrededor de cien voluntarios entre docentes, alumnos y egresados del Departa­mento de Psicología de la Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, quienes se movilizaron a las zonas afectadas con el fin de brindar apoyo psicológico. Se presenta la intervención en conjunto: el diseño previo a la intervención propiamente dicha, las técnicas utilizadasdurante la intervención y la evaluación de los resultados. Éstos incluyen el impacto en la población atendida, los factores a los que se atribuye el éxito de la intervención y el im­pacto en los brigadistas. La población atendida remarca de manera especial lo valioso que constituye el sentirse escuchada y acompañada, el contar con espacios para hablar y re­flexionar sobre su experiencia, temores y fantasías.

Orientador: Luci Hidalgo Nunes / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Geociências / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-18T20:23:08Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Moura_ErikaFerreira_M.pdf: 3404384 bytes, checksum: 0d6c430ae184e613eada2d05159cd499 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011 / Resumo: O reconhecimento da evolução dos padrões atmosféricos é estratégico na percepção e ajuste do homem ao ambiente físico e, portanto, na qualidade de vida individual e social. Este estudo teve por escopo avaliar a percepção de risco de moradores de áreas com histórico de eventos calamitosos, com o objetivo de verificar se a consciência dos riscos condizia com as reais probabilidades de desastres naturais a que estas populações estão expostas. Para isso, foi utilizado registros da defesa Civil do Guarujá, para a hierarquização das áreas mais suscetíveis e de população mais vulnerável, onde foram aplicados questionários qualitativos tendo por base a Fenomenologia - setor da ciência que descreve um fenômeno a partir da percepção e experiência vivenciada pelos indivíduos que o presenciam no mesmo tempo e local, e o percebem e o interpretam de acordo com variações individuais- com a finalidade de cruzar os dados e aferir a percepção de riscos dos moradores. A pesquisa foi desenvolvida no município do Guarujá - SP que, embora conhecido por suas belezas cênicas e pelo turismo, apresenta muitas áreas de risco a escorregamentos e inundações, fazendo com que uma parte substancial de seus habitantes seja altamente vulnerável às inundações e escorregamentos, especialmente no verão, quando as precipitações são mais concentradas / Abstract: The recognition of the evolution of weather patterns is a strategic adjustment in the perception of man and the physical environment and, therefore, the quality of individual and social life. Scope of this study was to evaluate the risk perception of residents in areas with a history of calamitous events, in order to verify that the awareness of risk matched the actual probability of natural disasters that these populations are exposed. For this, we used records of the Civil Defence Guaruja, for ranking of the most susceptible and vulnerable population, questionnaires were applied based on the qualitative phenomenology - the sector of science that describes a phenomenon from the perceptions and lived experience by individuals who witness the same time and place, and perceive and interpret it according to individual variations, in order to compare data and assess the risk perception of residents. The research was conducted in the city of Guaruja - SP which, although known for its scenic beauty and tourism, has many areas at risk to landslides and floods, causing a substantial part of its inhabitants are highly vulnerable to floods and landslides, especially in summer when rainfall is more concentrated / Mestrado / Análise Ambiental e Dinâmica Territorial / Mestre em Geografia

Orientadores: Luci Hidalgo Nunes, Gerhard Held / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Geociências / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-21T21:23:36Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Candido_DanielHenrique_D.pdf: 12040471 bytes, checksum: 47011ad1ee58b830a779d18c7c681dac (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012 / Resumo: O registro de tornados e trombas-d'água no Brasil têm aumentado de forma substancial nos últimos anos. Embora as alterações antrópicas tenham papel fundamental para a elevação de tais ocorrências, uma vez que mais calor disponível significa maior instabilidade atmosférica, há de se considerar que a expansão urbana e o espraiamento da população faça com que os registros visuais desses fenômenos se tornem mais frequentes. Assim, este estudo avaliou a distribuição espacial do fenômeno em território brasileiro por meio do desenvolvimento de um modelo capaz de utilizar parâmetros climatológicos e geomorfológicos para definir os riscos de ocorrência de episódios tornádicos em diferentes setores do Brasil. Tal modelo foi obtido mediante aplicação de técnicas de geoprocessamento, adotando para isso ferramentas de SIG. O trabalho também apresenta a listagem de todos os eventos em território nacional, bem como a proposição de uma nova classificação dos fenômenos relacionados a ventos intensos, uma vez que os modelos atualmente adotados desconsideram as particularidades das estruturas existentes no país, sendo necessária a adoção de uma escala mais adequada à realidade brasileira. Os resultados obtidos mostram que o setor centro-sul do país apresenta elevado risco de ocorrência do fenômeno, sendo que os estados de São Paulo, Santa Catarina e Rio Grande do Sul são particularmente mais afetados / Abstract: The number of tornadoes and waterspouts recorded in Brazil has increased substantially in recent years. Anthropic alterations have key role in the increase of such occurrences, due to more heat being available, which in turn increases the atmospheric instability. But on the other hand, it should also be considered that the urban sprawl as well as an increase in population may result in such phenomena being observed more frequently. Thus, this study seeks to elucidate the spatial distribution of the phenomenon in Brazil by developing a model capable of using climatological and geomorphological parameters to capture the risk of occurrence of tornadoes in different parts of Brazil. This model was developed by applying geoprocessing techniques, adopting GIS tools for this task. The work also presents a list of all events recorded in the national territory. Furthermore, a new classification of events is proposed, since the current methods ignore the particularities of the existing structures in the country, necessitating the adoption of a scale more suitable to the Brazilian reality. Results show that the south-central sector of the country presents a high risk of occurrence of these phenomena, with the states of São Paulo, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul in particular being more affected / Doutorado / Análise Ambiental e Dinâmica Territorial / Doutor em Ciências

No description available.

Les pertes économiques liées aux catastrophes naturelles ont augmenté dans le monde plus rapidement que le PIB les trente dernières années en raison d’un accroissement de population et d’un faible niveau de prévention dans les régions exposées. De plus, seulement un tiers de ces pertes sont assurées et la faible pénétration de l’assurance génère des chocs de richesse pour les populations affectées. Dans ce contexte et dans la perspective du changement climatique, réduire les pertes liées aux catastrophes naturelles et accroître la couverture d’assurance sont devenus des enjeux majeurs pour nos sociétés, qui sont abordés dans la présente thèse. Les faibles niveaux de prévention et d’assurance peuvent s’expliquer par les nombreuses imperfections de marché et les politiques publiques déficientes, comme l’explique le chapitre introductif de la thèse. Il est nécessaire de mieux comprendre ces problèmes de marché et le rôle des politiques publiques afin de les améliorer. Le chapitre 2 s’intéresse aux choix de prévention dans le contexte du développement des villes. A l’aide d’un modèle d’économie urbaine, il montre que des zones plus risquées sont développées près du centre-ville que loin du centre-ville, l’investissement dans la résilience des bâtiments permet de développer des villes plus concentrées et les zones plus risquées sont moins densément peuplées et génèrent plus de prévention. De plus, les subventions à l’assurance mènent à une exposition excessive aux risques à travers une augmentation de la densité dans les zones les plus risquées et une baisse générale de la résilience. Cette analyse illustre les effets négatifs des subventions et le rôle que peuvent jouer les politiques publiques urbaines telles que les restrictions de densité ou les codes de construction. Les chapitres suivants abordent la problématique du partage des risques dans le contexte de corrélation des risques, caractéristique majeure des risques de catastrophes naturelles. A l’aide d’un modèle d’économie avec risques individuels potentiellement corrélés, le chapitre 3 démontre qu’une allocation Pareto-optimale des risques peut être atteinte avec des compagnies d’assurance en compétition et un nombre restreint d’actifs financiers. Ce résultat, qui est valide sans imperfections de marché, nécessite en particulier que les agents soient entièrement responsables pour les contrats signés dans chaque état de la nature. En pratique, pour limiter les défauts de paiement dans les états catastrophiques, les politiques publiques requièrent que les agents aient des réserves financières. Les chapitres 4 et 5 s’intéressent à la problématique de la corrélation des risques quand ces réserves sont coûteuses. Le chapitre 4 étudie comment la probabilité d’un risque affecte le choix de couverture d’individus exposés. Il montre que les individus sont plus enclins à s’assurer pour les faibles probabilités que pour les grandes avec des coûts standard d’assurance, mais que le résultat est inversé quand des coûts dus aux réserves financières sont ajoutés. Le chapitre 5 analyse la forme optimale des contrats d’assurance quand les risques individuels sont corrélés dans une communauté. Il démontre que le contrat optimal consiste en une assurance partielle contre le risque individuel, avec une couverture plus faible dans les états catastrophiques que dans les états normaux, plus potentiellement des dividendes dans les états normaux. Le dernier chapitre conclut en ouvrant sur de nouvelles questions de recherche liées à la prévention et à l’assurance des catastrophes naturelles. / World economic losses due to natural disasters have increased faster than GDP in the last three decades because risky regions have sustained growing population and low prevention measures. Moreover, only a third of these losses are insured and the low penetration of insurance generates undesirable wealth fluctuation for affected population. In this context and in the perspective of climate change, reducing natural disaster losses and increasing insurance coverage have become main challenges for our societies, which are addressed in the present thesis. Low current levels of prevention measures and insurance coverage can be explained by the numerous market imperfections and poorly designed public policies, as detailed in the introductive chapter of the dissertation. It is thus crucial to better understand these market failures and the role of public policies to improve both of them. Chapter 2 investigates preventive behaviors in the context of city development. By featuring an urban model, it shows that riskier areas are developed nearer to the city center than further away, investment in building resilience leads to more concentrated cities and riskier areas get lower household density and higher building resilience. Moreover, insurance subsidy leads to risk over-exposure through increase of density in the riskiest areas and general decrease of resilience. This analysis highlights the negative effects of subsidization and the role that can be played by urban policies such as density restrictions and building codes. The following chapters deal with risk sharing in the context of risk correlation, a main feature of natural disaster risks. In a model of a risky economy with potential risk dependence between individuals, chapter 3 shows that Pareto optimal allocation of risks can be reached thanks to stock insurance companies in competition and a reduced number of financial assets. This result, which is valid without market imperfections, requires in particular that agents be fully liable for their contracts in each state of nature. In practice, to limit the default on liabilities in catastrophic states, public policies require agents to secure financial reserves. Chapters 4 and 5 investigate the issue of risk correlation when securing financial reserves is costly. Chapter 4 analyzes how the probability of a risk affects the purchase of insurance by risk-exposed individuals. It demonstrates that individuals are more inclined to insure for low-probability risks than for high-probability risks with standard insurance costs, but result is reversed when reserve related costs are added. Chapter 5 examines the optimal design of insurance contracts when individual risks are correlated in a community. It shows that the optimal contract consists in partial insurance against individual risk, with a lower indemnity in catastrophic states than in normal states, and potentially some dividend in normal states. The last chapter concludes by opening on further possible research related to prevention and insurance of natural disasters.