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Model-Based Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Empirical and MachineLearning Strategies for Obtaining Insight with Physical Models andUnparameterized ComplexitiesTracy, Jacob January 2022 (has links)
No description available.
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Storm Water Management with BlueGreen Infrastructure in Urban Planning : A case-study in Krokom, SwedenSuleiko Allansson, Lena January 2023 (has links)
As changing climate and growing urban populations present new challenges for managing both the quantity and the quality of storm waterin cities, nature-based solutions such as blue-green infrastructure arebecoming widely considered as an alternative to grey infrastructure. The benefits, above providing storm water management at a lower cost, are increased ecosystem services. One of such solutions is SuDS: a collective name for drainage systems thatare designed to manage the quantity of runoff, protect or enhance water quality, increase amenity and foster biodiversity. In Sweden there is a lack of research on applying nature-based solutions in planning urban water management. This case study aims to contribute with knowledge of how working with blue-green infrastructure in a systematic way effects the outcome of urban planning and what ecosystem gains can be expected. ASuDS design was created following the SuDS guidelines for a greenfield residential area in the city of Krokom. The design was then compared with the original proposal by the municipality.The results show that the systematic method that SuDS brings to watermanagement planning leads to a different design of a residence area than what traditional methods produce. At the same time the ability to handle extreme rain event is at least as robust, with the ability of the system to generate other ecosystem services and further strengthen the resilience of the area. Further research is needed for a more detailed analysis of the generated ecosystem services. / <p>2023-06-02</p>
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EXAMINING THE IMPACT OF NATURE-BASED SOLUTIONS ON FLOOD VULNERABILITY AND LOSS IN SMALL URBANIZING REGIONS: A CASE STUDY OF THE PHILADELPHIA METROPOLITAN AREARazzaghi Asl, Sina 12 1900 (has links)
Nature-based solutions (NbS) are becoming increasingly popular in cities around the world; however, such efforts have not been widely incorporated into analyses of urban flood vulnerability nor the total population and property loss of flooding to date, except for a few studies that examined the effectiveness of green infrastructure or only wetlands in flood regulation. The proposed research sought to understand if the existing pattern and composition of NbS can mitigate flood vulnerability and loss of flooding in one of the fastest urbanizing regions in the United States, the Philadelphia Metropolitan Area. This research made key contributions to our understanding of how urban areas can grow without exacerbating flooding and inequity.First, a systematic mapping was conducted to reveal the most common spatial metrics of NbS that mitigate urban flooding in countries around the world. These findings identified important research areas for urban geographers, policymakers, planners, and civil engineers. This review indicated that the effectiveness of NbS varies spatially based on land use/land cover, climatic, and other contextual factors. The results indicated that the location, distribution, and arrangement of NbS may have different impacts on runoff mitigation and flood loss. Also, flood hydrology was the most common topic addressed, and the spatial configuration of NbS, especially connectivity was consistently identified as an important factor in flood regulation.
Second, the potential of NbS as a flood loss mitigation tool in one of the fastest-growing and flood-prone counties of Pennsylvania, Montgomery County, using the Generalized Linear Model (GLR) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) techniques was examined. The findings partially contradicted previous research by revealing an unexpected relationship between NbS quantity in floodplains and expected annual loss. Findings also demonstrated that lower-sized and disconnected patches of NbS in floodplains in some dense urban areas effectively reduce total losses from flood events.
Third, the spatial coincidence between the density of NbS and flood vulnerability within eight neighboring urbanizing regions situated in Montgomery County was analyzed by using the Local Indicator of Spatial Association (LISA). The results of LISA identified regions of concern characterized by elevated flood vulnerability scores and reduced concentrations of two tree canopy types as well as shrubs and grasses. Taken together, these results emphasize the significance of strategically integrating and improving NbS, especially in areas grappling with distinct flood-related issues. It also emphasized the potential for significant enhancements in flood resilience and mitigation policies thoughtful urban planning and the adoption of NbS. / Geography
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Nature-Based Solutions for Coastal Protection: A Multi-Scale Investigation of Wave-Vegetation InteractionsMarkov, Acacia 12 January 2023 (has links)
Nature-based solutions (NBS) are promising strategies for protecting vulnerable coasts in the context of climate change, utilizing the coastal protection capabilities of natural ecosystems for engineering applications. The ability of coastal marsh vegetation to attenuate wave energy and prevent coastal erosion has been acknowledged for decades, however, consideration for their use in coastal protection strategies is presently limited, particularly in Canada due to a lack of engineering guidelines and limited available research considering region-specific variables. Physical modelling presents a useful tool for investigating the coastal protection function provided by marsh vegetation in a controlled, repeatable environment, which can ultimately inform the design of nature-based coastal protection strategies. To date, such studies have investigated the influence of plant biophysical parameters (stem flexibility, width, and height) and hydrodynamic conditions (wave height, wave period, and plant submergence) on wave attenuation. These studies have used either live vegetation, requiring full-scale wave testing, or surrogate vegetation, which allows simplified testing at either full- or reduced-scale. Overall, live vegetation studies have been limited in the variety of saltmarsh plants considered, with few studies considering plant species native to the Canadian coastline. Several physical modelling studies have been performed using surrogate plants, however, methods of surrogate development for flexible vegetation or reduced-scale testing are not yet well developed.
This thesis aims to address knowledge gaps pertaining to the use of marsh vegetation in coastal protection strategies, particularly through the development of experimental methods with both live and surrogate plants. A full-scale flume study with live vegetation was performed to develop fundamental knowledge of wave-vegetation interactions for Spartina alterniflora and Spartina patens, two salt marsh species native to Canada’s Atlantic coast. S. alterniflora was observed to demonstrate a resistance strategy in response to hydrodynamic forcing, versus the avoidance strategy of S. patens, supporting complementary functioning of the two species if utilized together in coastal protection schemes. Observations of plant properties and stem bending from live plant tests were subsequently applied in the development of a small-scale flume study, which examined wave attenuation associated with a downscaled S. alterniflora meadow in the configuration of a “living dyke” structure. Wave damping induced by surrogate vegetation was observed to be minimal for the tested wave conditions (0.073 m < Hm0 < 0.225 m, 2.0 < Tp < 3.2 s, 1:4 scale) and beach slope (1V:20H), with wave height evolution dominated by wave shoaling and breaking. Several methods were considered for modelling the S. alterniflora meadow at reduced scale, and results demonstrated a sensitivity to surrogate diameter but not flexibility.
The development of robust experimental methods for investigating the performance of nature-based coastal infrastructure is essential for the establishment of appropriate design conditions. The scale series approach of this thesis supports such methodological advancements and is expected to make preliminary contributions to design guidance on coastal marsh-based NBS and provide critical direction for future studies.
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Exploring stakeholder perceptions of nature-based solutions to provide resilience against heatwaves in the Stockholm Royal Seaport: A mental mapping approachRieger, Jorinde-Marie January 2024 (has links)
Urban areas worldwide, including Stockholm, face increasing environmental challenges such as rising temperatures and heatwaves exacerbated by climate change and urban heat island effects. In response, nature-based solutions (NBS) have been proposed as a planning tool for enhancing urban resilience. However, evidence on the fine-scale effectiveness of NBS in addressing extreme events, such as heatwaves remains limited. Furthermore, the inclusion of subjective measures to enrich objective measures for increased NBS benefits and thermal comfort assessments is needed. This study investigates the cooling effectiveness of NBS, hence strengthening the resilience of the Stockholm Royal Seaport against heatwaves. Mental mapping interviews were used to explore residents' and expert advisors' perceptions of the cooling effects of NBS. Key findings reveal the significant cooling effects of large natural areas such as parks and waterbodies, notably the Royal National City Park. However, smaller NBSs, while contributing to the green aesthetic and climate regulation of the neighborhood, were not perceived by residents as cooling. The study emphasizes the importance of the proximity and size of NBS to residential areas and highlights the subjective nature of neighborhood boundaries that influence residents' perceptions of NBS cooling effects. A comparison of residents’ and advisors’ perceptions reveals differences between theoretical expert and experience-based knowledge. These differences highlight the need for participatory planning processes that have the potential to complement advisor knowledge with resident perception and contribute to user-based planning. Overall, the study contributes to understanding the role of NBS in urban resilience, advocates for participatory approaches to urban planning, and demonstrates the value of mental mapping in capturing nuanced community perspectives for future planning efforts by revealing experiential knowledge that may remain hidden in a dialogue.
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Guidelines for Integrated Flood Control Design in the Informal Settlements of Cape Town Municipality : A case study of Kosovo Informal Settlement in Philippi District / Riktlinjer för integrerad design av översvämningskontroll i Kapstads kommuns informella bosättningar : En fallstudie av Kosovos informella bosättning i distriktet PhilippiMseleku, Erasmus January 2021 (has links)
Flooding over the last few years has become the most frequent and devastating of the natural disasters. This has accounted for approximately half of the death-rate and a third of economic losses as a result of weather-related events. Though these flooding events affect many cities across the globe, it is often the less fortunate who are disproportionately impacted by such events. There are many factors as to why this is the unfortunate case, with a high number of the underprivileged urban population finding themselves living in informal settlements. These settlements are often developed on environmentally-fragile land on steep sites or floodplains and lack the adequate waste and drainage systems that control the flow of water, further aggravating the flood risk within these areas. These uneven hardships are no different to Cape Town metropolitan region. Flooding has become an annual recurrence for the city during the wet winter months between May and September, with the informal settlements in the Cape Flats low-lying area bearing the brunt of this impact. The research therefore aims to explore how integrated flood control design within urban development can contribute to creating social and environmental sustainable interventions for flood resilience in informal settlements within the Cape Town municipality. One of the most important findings was the strong relation between waste as one of the largest contributors to the flooding events in these settlements, which became a key driver for investigation within the research. Kosovo informal settlement is one of the hardest hit communities during Cape Town’s high rainfall winter seasons and will used as the case study area for the research. The objective of the study is to investigate the existing condition and the involved stakeholders to develop well thought design strategies and toolbox for the municipality, planners, and residents. The design strategies and toolbox provides mechanisms to rethink flood prevention measures by shifting from creating barriers [interrupt], to mechanisms that engage with floodwater [interact] within a case study area. This research has attempted to position the community at the centre. Community participation and collaboration with key stakeholders will allow the residents to contribute with their local knowledge, experience and voices, sharing their views on the design solutions that are required to be integrated into their spaces.
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Governance of Nature-based Solutions for stormwater management in Stockholm : A Social-Ecological-Technical Systems Perspective / Politisk styrning och planering av naturbaserade lösningar för dagvattenhantering i Stockholm : ett socio-ekologiskt-tekniskt systemperspektivRasmusson, Fredrika, Estreen, Toini January 2021 (has links)
Increased urbanisation and climate change are negatively affecting the water cycle and are increasing floods and creating concerns for the built environment and human wellbeing. This has created a need to research sustainable water management in cities. Nature-based solutions (NBS) can offer more sustainable ways of water management, but conventional systems are still favoured in governance. Hence, the aim of this thesis is to identify opportunities and challenges of implementing NBS at Årstafältet in Stockholm and the related governance processes from a Socio-Ecological-Technical system perspective in order to bring a holistic view on sustainable urban stormwater management. The methods used in triangulation for this case study are interviews, a site visit, and desktop study of associated planning documents. The collected data is analysed with an analytical framework that investigates the Social-Ecological-Technical System (SETS) dimensions, in relation to governance. The results show that the implementation of NBS at Årstafältet has been largely successful, due to contextual factors, as well as an adaptive and reflexive governance approach. However, identified system dynamics, interrelations and tensions have shown that there is room for improvements. By increasing transdisciplinarity in early stages of the process to overcome rigid governance structures and techno-centricity. The application of the SETS framework has proved to be successful in identifying dynamics, interrelations, and tensions but there are issues related to uncertainties in how to categorise system components. Nevertheless, the SETS perspective has been useful for identifying challenges and opportunities related to governance and planning processes of implementing NBS.
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Effects of Maintenance on the Efficiency of NBS for Urban Flood Management / Effekten av underhåll på NBSs effektivitet för urban översvämningshanteringMarkström, Julia January 2023 (has links)
As rain events are likely to intensify and the proportion of impervious areas in cities increases, greater demands are put on stormwater management. Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) have become more popular over the past decades to be integrated into the stormwater strategy in order to reduce the volume of runoff in cities. For NBS to be effective over long term, maintenance must be prioritized. This study addressed two questions, what are the difficulties in modeling (lack of) maintenance over time and what are the consequences in terms of water quantity with inadequate maintenance on the long- term efficiency of NBS?. This was found by developing a hydrodynamic model in SWMM, where three NBS types were modeled, rain garden, permeable pavement, and infiltration trench. The efficiency of maintenance was investigated by creating several scenarios where different parameters were identified to represent maintenance. The parameters were varied for different precipitation events, as the effect of maintenance depends on the type of precipitation used. In general, inadequate maintenance has been proven to have little impact on rain events with a return period of 2-years, while a large difference could be seen for intense rains. Two consequences as a result of an absence of maintenance are overgrown vegetation and clogging of the media. Clogging was investigated for all three NBS types, and was found to have a large impact on its efficiency over time. The result also shows that despite the inadequate management, NBS can still contribute to manage stormwater, but with lower efficiency. / I takt med att regnen kommer att intensifieras och andelen hårdgjorda ytor i städer ökar, så ställs allt högre krav på dagvattenhantering. Naturbaserade lösningar (NBS) har under senaste decenniet blivit alltmer populära att integrera i dagvattenstrategin för att minska mängden dagvatten i städer. För att NBS ska vara effektiv över tid behöver skötseln prioriteras. Den här studien adresserar två frågor, vilka är svårigheterna med att modellera (bristfällig) underhåll över tid och vad är konsekvenserna av bristfälligt underhåll på NBS effektivitet över tid. Detta besvarades genom att skapa en modell i SWMM där tre NBS typer modellerades, regnbädd, genomsläpplig yta och infiltrationsdike. Effekten av underhåll undersöktes genom att skapa flera scenarion där olika parametrar som identifieras för att representera underhåll. Parametrarna förändrades sedan för olika nederbördstyper, då effekten av underhåll beror på vilken nederbördstyp som studeras. Bristfälligt underhåll sågs generellt inte ha någon större påverkan på 2-års regn, medan en stor differens kunde ses för de intensiva regnen. Igenvuxen vegetation på ytan och igentäppning av media, som konsekvens av undermåttligt underhåll, undersöktes bland annat för de tre NBS typerna, och resultatet visade att det har stor påverkar på dess effektivitet över tid. Resultatet visar också, trots otillräckligt underhåll, att kan NBS ändå bidra till att hantera dagvatten, men med betydligt lägre effektivitet.
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Adaptation or Maladaptation? : A holistic approach to mangrove forestry to protect against climate change in Char Kukri Mukri, Bangladesh. / Anpassning eller missanpassning? : Ett holistiskt sätt att närma sig mangroveskogsbruk i Char Kukri Mukri, Bangladesh.Krusberg, Tilde, Rahman, Aisha January 2022 (has links)
Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change, with coastal areas being especially vulnerable. Along the Bangladeshi coast lies mangrove forests that protect against storm surges, tropical cyclones, SLR, coastal erosion, and salt-water intrusion. On Char Kukri Mukri, a remote island in the Bay of Bengal, Keora-species (Sonneratia apetala) mangroves are planted. The forest is virtually a monoculture in degradation and thus needs restoration through enrichment. Therefore, this study aimed to explore the opportunities and limitations of mangrove enrichment as climate adaptation on Char Kukri Mukri. We conducted semi-structured interviews with local communities and other key stakeholders and analysed soil and water samples along the island's south coast to assess this. Our results indicate that the soil is highly saline, which, combined with projected climate impact, limits the abilities of more sensitive mangroves to survive there. Climate impacts severely affect the lives and livelihoods of the people living on Char Kukri Mukri. Successful adaptation requires further involvement of local communities, site-specific solutions, and a holistic approach to adaptation. However, a hindrance to adaptation measures is the lack of resources to fund large-scale projects, which leads to beneficiaries being required to provide money and land themselves to be considered for projects. This risks systematically excluding the landless poor, and there is therefore a need to reform adaptation financing systems so that measures benefit the most vulnerable. / Bangladesh är ett av de länder i världen som är mest sårbara för klimatförändringarna. Kustområdena är mest känsliga. Längs Bangladeshs kust finns mangroveskogar, som skyddar mot klimateffekter som stormar, cykloner, havsnivåhöjning, kusterosion, och saltvattenintrång. På Char Kukri Mukri, en avlägsen ö utanför Bangladeshs centralkust i Bengaliska viken, har mangrover av arten Keora (Sonneratia apetala) planterats. Skogen är praktiskt taget en monokultur som håller på att förstöras, och det finns därför ett behov av att restaurera skogen. Denna studie syftade till att undersöka möjligheterna och hindrena för restaurering av mangroveskogarna som klimatanpassning på Char Kukri Mukri. För att uppnå detta genomförde vi semistrukturerade intervjuer med lokalbefolkningen och andra nyckelintressenter, och analyserade jord- och vattenprover tagna vid öns sydkust. Våra resultat indikerar att jorden har hög salthalt, vilket i kombination med ökade klimateffekter minskar mer känsliga mangrovearters möjligheter att överleva i dessa områden. Klimateffekter påverkar människorna och deras försörjning på Char Kukri Mukri i hög grad. Lyckad klimatanpassning kräver mer inkludering av lokalbefolkningen i initativ, platsspecifika lösningar, samt ett holistiskt tillvägagångssätt. Resursbrist hindrar dock investeringar i storskaliga och långsiktiga projekt, vilket gör att förmånstagare behöver bidra med pengar och mark till projekten. Detta gör att fattiga människor som inte äger mark systematiskt exkluderas ur anpassningsprojekten. De nuvarande finansieringssystemen behöver därför reformeras för att projekten ska ge fördelar till de människor som är mest sårbara för klimatförändringarna.
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Flood mitigation at catchment scale: assessing the effectiveness of constructed wetlands / Översvämningshantering utifrån ett avrinningsområdesperspektiv: utvärdering av effektiviteten av anlagda våtmarkerEkström, Elin January 2023 (has links)
Considering the potential for natural wetlands to store and retain water in the landscape,restored and constructed wetlands are increasingly implemented as Nature‐BasedSolutions (NBS) to mitigate downstream flooding. However, there is a frequent lack ofknowledge of the performance of NBS, and particularly wetlands, and how to best selectperformance indicators to measure their effectiveness. The aim of this study was to assessthe flood regulation services of multiple constructed wetlands at catchment scale. TheSWAT+ model was used to assess the impacts of 35 constructed wetlands in the 193 km2Råån catchment in southwest Sweden. The assessment was based on a paired simulationscenario, with and without wetlands, and performance was evaluated based on impacts onthe downstream river hydrograph (peak flow rate, time-to-peak, recession curve shape,daily streamflow average) as well as event-based (daily average streamflow for differentprecipitation ranges), descriptive (average wetland storage capacity), consequential(overbank flooding) and social (social acceptance) indicators. The results implied that theflow regulating capability of the modeled wetlands was directly related to their outflowmechanisms. The wetlands had an average storage capacity of 0.38 m3 per m2 area butbecause the wetlands seemed to frequently exceed their maximum storage capacity duringhigh flow events, and the excess water was immediately spilled downstream, the wetlandsprovided limited flood regulation services. There were no visible impacts on thehydrograph-related indicators and the daily streamflow average was reduced by anegligible 0.02%. Furthermore, there were no significant differences in wetlandperformance between small and heavy rainfall events and the model output showed nosigns of overbank flooding for either wetland scenario. In terms of social acceptance, recentwetland projects in Råån catchment seem to have been well-received by farmers andlandowners in the area. However, lack of wetland-specific data, such as volume and dailyinflow and outflow data, as well as other model uncertainties, motivated a low confidencegrade for the indicators. In fact, if indicator values are to be useful tools in the futureintegration of wetlands as nature-based solutions, in-situ monitoring data of wetland waterbalance components are required. To support future policies and decision-making, adaptedtools and further research are needed to assess the impact of NBS on upstream-downstream processes. / Naturliga våtmarkers förmåga att hålla kvar och lagra vatten i landskapet gör attrestaurerade och anlagda våtmarker alltmer implementeras som naturbaserade lösningarför att mildra översvämningar i nedströms belägna områden. Det råder dock brist påkunskap om hur effektiva naturbaserade lösningar är och hur nyckelindikatorer bäst kanväljas för att mäta hur väl dessa system fungerar. Syftet med denna studie var att utvärderaanlagda våtmarkers förmåga att mildra översvämningar i ett avrinningsområde. SWAT+modellen användes för att bedöma påverkan av 35 anlagda våtmarker i Råånsavrinningsområde (193 km2) utanför Helsingborg. Bedömningen baserades på ettsimuleringspar, med och utan våtmarker, och effektiviteten utvärderades baserat påhydrografens egenskaper (flödestopp, stegringsfasen, recessionsfasen, daglig medel-vattenföring) samt med en nederbördsbaserad (daglig medelvattenföring för olikanederbördsintervall), beskrivande (genomsnittlig lagringskapacitet), konsekvensbaserad(översvämmad mark) och social (social acceptans) indikator. Resultatet antydde att denflödesreglerande förmågan hos de modellerade våtmarkerna var direkt kopplad till derasutflödesmekanismer. Våtmarkerna hade en genomsnittlig lagringskapacitet på 0.38 m3 perm2 yta men eftersom de ofta verkade överskrida sina maximala lagringskapaciteter underhögflöden, och överskottsvattnet omedelbart släpptes igenom nedströms, tillhandahöllvåtmarkerna en mycket begränsad flödesdämpande funktion. Det fanns inga synligaeffekter på de hydrografrelaterade indikatorerna och den dagliga medelvattenföringenminskade med försumbara 0.02%. Dessutom sågs inga signifikanta skillnader mellan småoch kraftiga nederbördshändelser och modellen visade inga tecken på översvämmad markför något av våtmarksscenarierna. Vad gäller social acceptans tycks de senastevåtmarksprojekten i Rååns avrinningsområde ha tagits emot väl av lantbrukare ochmarkägare i området. Bristen på våtmarksspecifika data, såsom volym och dagliga in- ochutflödesdata, samt andra modellosäkerheter medförde dock ett lågt förtroende förindikatorerna. Om indikatorvärden ska vara användbara verktyg i den framtida integ-reringen av våtmarker krävs uppmätta data över våtmarkernas vattenbalanskomponenter.För att stödja framtida beslutsfattande behövs även anpassade verktyg och ytterligareforskning för att bedöma påverkan av naturbaserade lösningar på uppströms-nedströmsprocesser.
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