Oficialiai neapskaityta ekonomika apima visus oficialiosios statistikos neapskaitytus, bet į BVP įskaičiuojamus sandorius. Neapskaitoma ekonomika 2005 m. sudarė 18.7 proc. šalies bendrojo vidaus produkto. Šešėlinė ekonomika iškreipia oficialiąją statistiką, stabdo ekonomikos augimą, todėl būtina ją tirti, fiksuoti, ieškoti būdų ją pažaboti. Pagrindinis šio darbo tikslas - įvertinus šešėlinės ekonomikos susidarymo priežastis, šaltinius, mastą Lietuvoje, numatyti Lietuvai tinkamiausias šešėlinės ekonomikos prevencijos kryptis. Darbą sudaro 3 dalys: šešėlinės ekonomikos apžvalga, šešėlinės ekonomikos Lietuvoje įvertinimas ir šešėlinės ekonomikos prevencija. Pirmojoje darbo dalyje pateikta susisteminta įvairių Lietuvos ir užsienio autorių teorinė medžiaga apie šešėlinės ekonomikos koncepciją, tyrimo metodus, susidarymo priežastis ir šaltinius. Antroje dalyje nagrinėjamos esminės neapskaitomos ekonomikos sritys: nedeklaruojamos įmonių pajamos, užimtumas ir darbo apmokėjimas. Vertinama veiklos rūšių pridėtinės vertės apimtis. Taip pat analizuojamos ir vertinamos šios nelegalios veiklos rūšys: nelegali alkoholio gamyba ir pardavimas, narkotinių medžiagų gamyba ir pardavimas, seksualinės paslaugos, vogtų automobilių pardavimas, nelegali audio, vaizdo ir kitų įrašų bei kompiuterinių žaidimų kopijų gamyba ir platinimas. Trečioje dalyje išanalizavus ekonomikos prevencijos priemones bei įvertinus jų efektyvumą, remiantis atlikto sociologinio tyrimo „Viešosios nuomonės tyrimas dėl... [to full text] / The non-observed economy covers all transactions included in the GDP, which are not estimated by official statistics. The share of the non–observed economy in 2005 made 18.7 per cent of the country‘s GDP. The non-observed economy distorts the official statistics, damages economic growth. That’s why it is important research and to try to smash it. The main aim of this paper is to assess the derivation and reasons of non-observed economy formation, the extent of non-observed economy in Lithuania and suppose what kind of tools of prevention we need in Lithuania. The thesis consists of three parts: stocktaking of non-observed economy, estimation of non-observed economy in Lithuania, non-observed economy prevention. The first part examines the conception of non-observed economy, the main tools of estimation, the derivation and reasons of non-observed economy formation. The second chapter examines certain areas of the non-observed economy: no declared income of enterprise, employment and earnings. Value added generated by illegal activities is taken into consideration. It is also analyzed and assessed such illegal activities: illegal production and sales of alcoholic drinks, production and sales of drug substances, sales of stolen cars, sexual services, production and sales of illegal copies of audio, video and other recordings as well as computer games. The third chapter analyses the cures for non-observed economy, assess the efficiency of them, analyses results of... [to full text]

This research focuses on the measurement of the non-observed economic activities by sector of South Africa for the 2011 and 2016 calendar years. The purpose of the research is to determine whether the current GDP as estimated by Statistics South Africa is under- or overestimated when considering the non-observed economy. The research is based on the 2008 System of National Accounts as it determines the guidelines, definitions and characteristics of the “Non-observed economy (NOE)” sector and it allows national accountants to use/supplement the research in the estimates of the GDP. This research follows a quantitative methodology where several surveys of Statistics South Africa are used. Where lack of data exists, some administrative data is used regarding the illegal activities. The findings of the research is that the total economy of South Africa is underestimated when taking into account the NOE activities. / Economics / M. Com. (Economics)

Cette thèse vise à identifier les contraintes institutionnelles et réglementaires qui limitent le développement des unités informelles à Djibouti en faisant à la fois une analyse microéconomique et macroéconomique. L’examen des institutions montre que des habitudes (corruption, passe droit) en matière de règlement de l’administration créent des coûts de transaction et obligent les micro-entreprises à se réfugier dans le secteur informel. Un modèle de régression montre que la qualité de la justice (mesurée par l’indicateur de Rule of Law de la Banque mondiale) est une variable déterminante pour expliquer le poids de l’économie non observée et donc celui du secteur informel, dans le PIB officiel. La dynamique des micro-entreprises est appréhendée à partir de 2 enquêtes (2001 et 2005) portant sur le même échantillon. L’analyse de la mobilité à l’aide de matrices de transition révèle l’existence non pas d’un seul seuil infranchissable, mais plutôt de trois (1 actif, 2-5 actifs, 6-9 actifs et 10 actifs et plus) et confirme la thèse du «missing-middle». L’analyse factorielle discriminante indique que la légalité est une variable déterminante pour expliquer le blocage apparent des micro-entreprises au-delà de 6 à 9 actifs. Enfin, l’enquête 2007 sur les activités de transfert d’argents (hawalas) montre leur impact important sur le plan macroéconomique ; elle suggère la prise en compte de la spécificité et de l’utilité de ces institutions comme un dispositif complémentaire aux banques dont l’intégration dans le système financier formel devrait être facilitée. / This research seeks to detect the institutional and regulatory constraints that limit the development of informal units in Djibouti by both the macroeconomic and microeconomic analysis. The review shows that institutional habits (corruption, going right) in regulation created transaction costs and force small businesses to take refuge in the informal sector. A regression model shows that the quality of justice (as measured by this indicator of Rule of Law of the World Bank) is a determining variable in explaining the weight of the non-observed economy and hence the informal sector in GDP official. The dynamics of micro-enterprises is approached from 2 surveys (2001 and 2005) on the same sample. The analysis of mobility through transition matrices reveals the existence of three thresholds (1 employee, 2-5 employees, 6-9 employees and 10 employees and more) and not only one single threshold, albeit it confirms the thesis of «missing-middle». The discriminating factor analysis indicates that the law is a crucial variable that explains the apparent blocking of micro-enterprises beyond 6 to 9 employees. Finally, the 2007 survey on the money transfer activities (hawalas) shows that these institutions have a significant impact on the macroeconomic level and suggests that their usefulness and specificity should be taken into account in order to integrate this banking device within the formal financial system.

Drug trade is a part of non-observed economy in the system of national accounts. Estimations of drug trade were made from demand side based on estimation of drug consumption. This needs estimations of drug users, which was possible to estimate from drug use prevalence in last year. Several surveys done in society were the data source. Other information from the surveys was information about frequency of drug use. Several research studies gave information about consumed drug quantity by one opportunity. Police and customs have a common database about drug seizures. The database is source for information about import and export of drugs, drug purities by production or import and by consumption or export. Police reports drug prices also. The physical indicators of the drug trade are recalculated by wholesale and retail prices into financial indicators, which are possible to record into system of national accounts.