Conserving rare species and protecting biodiversity depends on sound information on the nature of rarity. Rarity is multidimensional, presenting the need for a quantitative classification scheme by which to label species as rare or common. I defined rarity for freshwater fishes based on the range extents, habitat breadths, and site abundance and examined the relationship between these dimensions of rarity and imperilment. Imperiled fishes were most often rare by all three dimensions, whereas undesignated species were most often common by all three dimensions. Next, I examined the effect of sampling intensity on observed rarity of stream fish using different numerical and proportional rarity criteria and found that increasing sampling intensity increased the number of species labelled as rare with proportional criteria but did not affect the number of species labelled as rare with numerical criteria. Additional electrofishing passes within a fixed reach increases the likelihood of detecting rare and endemic species. A tradeoff between information collected and sampling resources should be carefully considered in the context of objectives when sampling for rare species. Finally, I examined the effect of regional and watershed habitat variables, biotic interaction variables, and instream habitat variables, on the rare or common status on 23 North American freshwater fishes. I also compared biological and reproductive traits among species classified into the rarity framework. Rarity was successfully explained in 19 of the 23 species and I found that regional and watershed habitat variables were the most important predictors of rarity. I also found that species large body size, high fecundity, and long age at maturity were generally more common by range extent and site abundance while those species that did not guard nests were more frequently rare by site abundance. These results indicate that large-scale variables can be used to successfully predict species rarity and rare fishes differ in their biology and reproduction from common fishes. / Master of Science

The first part of this work focuses on control experiments performed on an unstable kerosene-fueled turbulent combustor. Using a phase shift controller and primary fuel modulation stability is successfully gained for a wide band of global equivalence ratios allowing the limitations of the control scheme to be characterized. It is shown that control signal saturation can significantly impact the ability of the control scheme to stabilize the system. Three different regions of controllability are defined based on the degree of saturation. A hysteresis behavior is also found to exist for the controller settings depending on whether stability is being maintained or realized for an unstable system. The second part of this work focuses on the impact that primary fuel modulation has on the fuel spray. Measurements for a simplex nozzle and an air-assist nozzle are taken under both static and dynamic operating conditions with a Phase Doppler Anemometry system. The dynamic modulation is found to significantly impact the spray properties of both nozzles. / Master of Science

In Sweden, there has been an long term effort to allow as heavy traffic as possible, provided thatthe road network can handle it. This is because heavy traffic offers a competitive advantage withsocio-economic gains. In July 2018, the Swedish Transport Administration made 12 percent ofthe Swedish road network avaliable for the new maximum vehicle weight of 74 tonnes, basedon a legislative change from 2017. It is known that heavy traffic has a negative effect on thedegradation of the road, but it prevails divided opinions on whether 74 tonnes have a greaterimpact on the degradation rate compared to previous maximum gross weights of 64 tonnes.The 74 tonne vehicles have the same allowed axle load, which means more axles per vehicle. Some argue that an increased total load and more axles affect the degradation associated withtime-dependent material properties, while others argue that 74 tonnes mean fewer heavy vehiclesoverall, and thus should have a positive impact on the road’s lifespan. The construction companySkanska therefore requests a statistical analysis that enables to nuance the effects that heavytraffic has on the Swedish state road network. Since there is very limited data on the effect of 74 tonne traffic, this Master thesis instead focuseson modeling heavy traffic in general in order to be able to draw conclusions on which variablesare significant for a road’s lifetime. The method used is survival analysis where the lifetimeof the road is defined as the time between two maintenance treatments. The model selectedis the semi-parametric ’Cox Proportional Hazard Model’. The model is fitted with data froman open source database called LTPP (Long Term Pavement Performance) which is providedby the National Road and Transport Research Institute (VTI). The result of the modeling ispresented with hazard ratios, which is the relative risk that a road will require maintance atthe next time stamp compared to a reference category. The covariates that turned out to besignificant for a road’s lifetime and thus are included in the model are; lane width, undergroundtype, speed limit, asphalt layer thickness, bearing layer thickness and proportion of heavy traffic. Survival curves estimated by the model are also presented. In addition, a sensitivity analysis ismade by exploring survival curves estimated for different scenarios, with different combinationsof covariate levels.The results is then compared with previous studies on the subject. The most interesting finding isa case study from Finland since Finland allow 76 tonne vehicles since 2013. In the comparison,the model’s significant variables are confirmed, but the significance of precipitation and thenumber of axes for a roads lifetime is also highlighted

Esse trabalho propõe uma metodologia de otimização no processo de aprovação de componentes estruturais submetidos a carregamentos cíclicos que já tiveram a primeira rodada de testes físicos e falharam sem atingir os critérios de aprovação previamente estabelecidos. Os estudos de caso utilizados na aplicação do método foram dois componentes de suspensão de veículos comerciais. A metodologia proposta tem em sua base diversos tópicos da engenharia, como o estudo dos materiais dos componentes, análise de tensão e fadiga via elementos finitos, medição e análise de sinal de deformação e força, teste de durabilidade acelerado, além de correlação entre simulação e realidade. No âmbito da fadiga, a análise foi efetuada em ambiente virtual, através de um programa capaz de importar as tensões da simulação numérica e medições estruturais. É utilizada a metodologia S-N (tensão vida), através da criação de curvas S-N locais sintéticas, alteradas da curva original via fatores de influência como gradiente de tensão, tensão média (via diagrama de Haigh), rugosidade superficial e também pela distribuição estatística das propriedades do material. Por se tratar de carregamentos cíclicos aleatórios, uma análise de proporcionalidade do sinal é feita, além da utilização da previsão de vida em fadiga abordando os conceitos da fadiga uniaxial (utilizando tensão principal e von Mises) e também no caso multiaxial (utilizando o método dos planos críticos e tensão normal escalonada). Um grande grau de correlação entre simulação de tensão e testes físicos foi encontrado (pelo menos 90%). A previsão de falha por fadiga para os dois casos teve seus melhores resultados utilizando o método dos planos críticos. Os dois componentes encontram-se homologados por essa metodologia e atualmente são utilizados por veículos comerciais de série sem falhas observadas em campo, mostrando uma tendência de assertividade do método. / This work proposes a methodology to optimize the approval of structural components subjected to cyclic loadings that have had the first round of physical testing and failed to achieve the approval criteria previously established process. The case studies used in the application of the method were two commercial vehicle suspension components. The proposed methodology has its base in various engineering topics such as the study of the component materials, stress analysis and fatigue via finite elements, measurement and signal analysis of deformation and strength, accelerated durability test, and correlation between simulation and reality. Within the fatigue, the analysis was performed in a virtual environment, through a software able to import the stresses of numerical simulation and structural measurements. The S-N method (stress life) is used, through the creation of local synthetic S-N curves. The curve is modified from the original via influence factors such as gradient stress, mean stress (via Haigh diagram), surface roughness and also the statistical distribution of material properties. Because of the random cyclic loading, an analysis of the proportionality sign is made, in addition of the use of the fatigue life prediction by uniaxial fatigue (using principal stress and von Mises) and also in the multiaxial case (using the critical plans method and normal scaled stress). A high degree of correlation between stress and physical simulation tests was found (at least 90%). The prediction of fatigue failure for the two cases had their best results using the critical plans method. The two components are approved by this methodology and are currently used by commercial vehicles series without failures observed in the field, showing an assertiveness trend of the method.

The safety of the food supply in the United States has become an issue of prominence in the minds of ordinary Americans. Several government agencies, including the United States Department of Agriculture and the Food and Drug Administration, are charged with the responsibility of preserving the safety of the food supply. Food is withdrawn from the market in a product recall when tainted or mislabeled and has the potential to harm the consumer in some manner. This research examines recall events issued by firms over the period of January, 2000 through October, 2009 in the United States. Utilizing economic and management theory to establish predictions, this study employs the Cox proportional hazard regression model to analyze the effects of firm size and branding on the risk of recall recurrence. The size of the firm was measured in both billions of dollars of sales and in thousands of employees. Branding by the firm was measured as a binary variable that expressed if a firm had a brand and as a count of the number of brands within a firm. This study also provides a descriptive statistical analysis and several findings based on the recall data specifically relating to annual occurrences, geographical locations of the firms involved, types of products recalled, and reasons for recall. We hypothesized that the increasing firm size would be associated with increased relative risk of a recall event while branding and an increasing portfolio of brands would be associated with decreased relative risk of a recall event. However, it was found that increased firm size and branding by the firm are associated with an increased risk of recall occurrence. The results of this research can have implications on food safety standards in both the public and private sectors.

Made available in DSpace on 2015-03-26T13:32:17Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 texto completo.pdf: 764829 bytes, checksum: 8dbd03463c4800428f75900ca1340eb0 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-07-23 / The use of logistic regression modeling as a tool for modeling statistical probability of an event as a function of one or more independents variables, has grown among researchers in several areas, including Phytopathology. At about the dichotomous logistic regression in which the dependent variable is the type binary or dummy, is the extensive number of studies in the literature that discuss the modeling assumptions and the interpretation of the analyzes, as well as alternatives for implementation in statistical packages. However, when the variable response requires the use three or more categories, the number of publications is scarce. This is not only due to the scarcity of relevant publications on the subject, but also the inherent difficulty of coverage on the subject. In this paper we address the applicability of the model polytomous ordinal logistic regression, as well as differences between the proportional odds models, nonproportional and partial proportional odds. For this, we analyzed data from an experiment in which we evaluated the potential antagonistic fungus Clonostachys rosea in biocontrol of the disease called "gray mold", caused by Botrytis cinerea in strawberry and tomato. The partial proportional odds models and nonproportional were adjusted and compared, since the proportionality test score accused rejection of the proportional odds assumption. The estimates of the model coefficients as well as the odds ratios were interpreted in practical terms for Phytopathology. The polytomous ordinal logistic regression is introduced as an important statistical tool for predicting values, showing the potential of C. rosea in becoming a commercial product to be developed and used in the biological control of the disease, because the application of C. rosea was as or more effective than the use of fungicides in the control of gray mold. / O uso da regressão logística como uma ferramenta estatística para modelar a probabilidade de um evento em função de uma ou mais variáveis explicativas, tem crescido entre pesquisadores em várias áreas, inclusive na Fitopatologia. À respeito da regressão logística dicotômica, na qual a variável resposta é do tipo binária ou dummy, é extenso o número de trabalhos na literatura que abordam a modelagem, as pressuposições e a interpretação das análises, bem como alternativas de implementação em pacotes estatísticos. No entanto, quando a variável resposta requer que se utilize três ou mais categorias, o número de publicações é escasso. Isso devido não somente à escassez de publicações relevantes sobre o assunto, mas também à inerente dificuldade de abrangência sobre o tema. No presente trabalho aborda-se a aplicabilidade do modelo de regressão logística politômica ordinal, bem como as diferenças entre os modelos de chances proporcionais, chances proporcionais parciais e chances não proporcionais. Para isso, foram analisados dados de um experimento em que se avaliou o potencial do fungo antagonista Clonostachys rosea no biocontrole da doença denominada mofo cinzento , causada por Botrytis cinerea em morangueiro e tomateiro. Os modelos de chances proporcionais parciais e não proporcionais foram ajustados e comparados, uma vez que o teste score de proporcionalidade acusou rejeição da pressuposição de chances proporcionais. As estimativas dos coeficientes dos modelos bem como das razões de chances foram interpretadas em termos práticos para a Fitopatologia. A regressão logística politômica ordinal se apresentou como uma importante ferramenta estatística para predição de valores, mostrando o potencial do C. rosea em se tornar um produto comercial a ser desenvolvido e usado no controle biológico da doença, pois a aplicação de C. rosea foi tão ou mais eficiente do que a utilização de fungicidas no controle do mofo cinzento.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-02T20:06:00Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 1662.pdf: 571364 bytes, checksum: 6091268473b4a7cb920748fd364c2a99 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2007-03-30 / Survival data analysis models is used to study experimental data where, normally, the variable "answer"is the time passed until an event of interest. Many authors do prefer modeling survival data, in the presence of co-variables, by using a hazard function - which is related with its interpretation. The Cox model (1972) - most commonly used by the authors - is applicable when the fail rates are proportional. This model is very flexible and used in the survival analysis. It can be easily extended to, for example, incorporate the time-dependent co-variables. In the present work we propose a proportional risk model which incorporates a time-dependent parameter named "time-dependent proportional risk model". / A análise de sobrevivência tem por objetivo estudar dados de experimento em que a variável resposta é o tempo até a ocorrência de um evento de interesse. Vários autores têm preferido modelar dados de sobrevivência na presença de covariáveis por meio da função de risco, fato este relacionado à sua interpretação. Ela descreve como a probabilidade instantânea de falha se modifca com o passar do tempo. Nesse contexto, um dos modelos mais utilizados é o modelo de Cox (Cox, 1972), onde a suposição básica para o seu uso é que as taxas de falhas sejam proporcionais. O modelo de riscos proporcionais de Cox é bastante flexível e extensivamente usado em análise de sobrevivência. Ele pode ser facilmente estendido para incorporar, por exemplo, o efeito de covariáveis dependentes do tempo. Neste estudo, propõe-se um modelo de risco proporcional, que incorpora um parâmetro dependente do tempo, denominado modelo de risco proporcional dependente do tempo. Uma análise clássica baseada nas propriedades assintóticas dos estimadores de máxima verossimilhança dos parâmetros envolvidos é desenvolvida, bem como um estudo de simulação via técnicas de reamostragem para estimação intervalar e testes de hipóteses dos parâmetros do modelo. É estudado o custo de estimar o efeito da covariável quando o parâmetro que mede o efeito do tempo é considerado na modelagem. E, finalizando, apresentamos uma abordagem do ponto de vista Bayesiano.

Esse trabalho propõe uma metodologia de otimização no processo de aprovação de componentes estruturais submetidos a carregamentos cíclicos que já tiveram a primeira rodada de testes físicos e falharam sem atingir os critérios de aprovação previamente estabelecidos. Os estudos de caso utilizados na aplicação do método foram dois componentes de suspensão de veículos comerciais. A metodologia proposta tem em sua base diversos tópicos da engenharia, como o estudo dos materiais dos componentes, análise de tensão e fadiga via elementos finitos, medição e análise de sinal de deformação e força, teste de durabilidade acelerado, além de correlação entre simulação e realidade. No âmbito da fadiga, a análise foi efetuada em ambiente virtual, através de um programa capaz de importar as tensões da simulação numérica e medições estruturais. É utilizada a metodologia S-N (tensão vida), através da criação de curvas S-N locais sintéticas, alteradas da curva original via fatores de influência como gradiente de tensão, tensão média (via diagrama de Haigh), rugosidade superficial e também pela distribuição estatística das propriedades do material. Por se tratar de carregamentos cíclicos aleatórios, uma análise de proporcionalidade do sinal é feita, além da utilização da previsão de vida em fadiga abordando os conceitos da fadiga uniaxial (utilizando tensão principal e von Mises) e também no caso multiaxial (utilizando o método dos planos críticos e tensão normal escalonada). Um grande grau de correlação entre simulação de tensão e testes físicos foi encontrado (pelo menos 90%). A previsão de falha por fadiga para os dois casos teve seus melhores resultados utilizando o método dos planos críticos. Os dois componentes encontram-se homologados por essa metodologia e atualmente são utilizados por veículos comerciais de série sem falhas observadas em campo, mostrando uma tendência de assertividade do método. / This work proposes a methodology to optimize the approval of structural components subjected to cyclic loadings that have had the first round of physical testing and failed to achieve the approval criteria previously established process. The case studies used in the application of the method were two commercial vehicle suspension components. The proposed methodology has its base in various engineering topics such as the study of the component materials, stress analysis and fatigue via finite elements, measurement and signal analysis of deformation and strength, accelerated durability test, and correlation between simulation and reality. Within the fatigue, the analysis was performed in a virtual environment, through a software able to import the stresses of numerical simulation and structural measurements. The S-N method (stress life) is used, through the creation of local synthetic S-N curves. The curve is modified from the original via influence factors such as gradient stress, mean stress (via Haigh diagram), surface roughness and also the statistical distribution of material properties. Because of the random cyclic loading, an analysis of the proportionality sign is made, in addition of the use of the fatigue life prediction by uniaxial fatigue (using principal stress and von Mises) and also in the multiaxial case (using the critical plans method and normal scaled stress). A high degree of correlation between stress and physical simulation tests was found (at least 90%). The prediction of fatigue failure for the two cases had their best results using the critical plans method. The two components are approved by this methodology and are currently used by commercial vehicles series without failures observed in the field, showing an assertiveness trend of the method.

Magnetic Shape Memory (MSM) alloys show a superelastic behaviour with possible deformation rates up to 6% until 12% and a sufficient lifetime performance [1, 2]. In this paper, a passive application for a superelastic Ni-Mn-Ga-alloy is presented by using the MSM element as an accurately defined inner friction in a system of a multistable actuator, in particular a multistable proportional valve. The multistable valve is characterized by a currentless holding of the valve displacement in any position of the stroke. This circumstance makes the concept a very low energy consumption valve, compared to conventional proportional valves with solenoid actuators. The new aspect of a rigid connection of MSM Materials enables an absorption of tension as well as compressive forces. To realize an applicable controlling valve, a simple and effective controlling strategy has been implemented. Due to the stabilizing effect of the MSM element, an accurate controlling of the valve stroke and the usage for example as a pressure-, mass-flow or temperature-controlling valve was made possible. Furthermore, some potential applications in pneumatics as well as in hydraulics are presented.

The ability to gather and process information regarding the condition of forest fires is essential to cost-effective, safe, and efficient fire fighting. Advances in sensory and autopilot technology have made miniature unmanned aerial systems (UASs) an important tool in the acquisition of information. This thesis addresses some of the challenges faced when employing UASs for forest-fire perimeter surveillance; namely, perimeter tracking, cooperative perimeter surveillance, and path planning. Solutions to the first two issues are presented and a method for understanding path planning within the context of a forest-fire environment is demonstrated. Both simulation and hardware results are provided for each solution.