Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited / Consensus methods require that the techniques have no bias and have skill. The accuracy of six statistical and dynamical model tropical cyclone intensity guidance techniques was examined for western North Pacific tropical cyclones during the 2003 and 2004 seasons using the climatology and persistence technique called ST5D as a measure of skill. A framework of three phases: (i) initial intensification; (ii) maximum intensity with possible decay/reintensification cycles; and (iii) decay was used to examine the skill. During both the formation and intensification stages, only about 60% of the 24-36 h forecasts were within +/- 10 kt, and the predominant tendency was to under-forecast the intensity. None of the guidance techniques predicted rapid intensification well. All of the techniques tended to under-forecast maximum intensity and miss decay/reintensification cycles. A few of the techniques provided useful guidance on the magnitude of the decay, although the timing of the decay was often missed. Whereas about 60-70% of the 12-h to 72-h forecasts by the various techniques during the decay phase were within +/- 10 kt, the strong bias was to not decay the cyclone rapidly enough. In general the techniques predict too narrow a range of intensity changes for both intensification and decay. / Captain, United States Air Force

Biogeochemical changes across oceanic interfaces, and method development to study such changes, are described in this work. The interfaces studied include the Subtropical Front in the Pacific Ocean and the boundary at the base of the euphotic zone. Both interfaces are characterized by accumulations of phytoplankton, although the forcing functions that result in increased biomass are distinctly different. The Subtropical Front, located at approximately 30°N in the Pacific Ocean, was detected during a cruise in the summer of 2002 by its diagnostic 34.8 salinity outcrop, in spite of the absence of its associated temperature signature. The front displayed elevated concentrations of large diatoms; Rhizosolenia and Hemiaulus, with concentrations penetrating deeper in the water column south of the front. Rhizosolenia species were dominant on the warmer, high salinity side of the front, while Hemiaulus prevailed on the cooler, low salinity side. While high cell counts were enumerated by net tows, the elevated biomass was not visible in satellite color imagery. Size fractionated chlorophyll data revealed > 10 um cells were found below 200 m, indicating export of large cells out of the euphotic zone. This confirms observations by other investigators that fronts represent important regions of episodic export, although such export may go undetected if the biomass is not visible in ocean color images. Another region of interest was the narrow layer at the base of the euphotic zone. During stratified conditions, the layer was characterized by a fluorescence maximum, a primary nitrite maximum, and a nutricline. While fluorescence maxima have proven easy to detect using commercial fluorometers, nutrient distributions have proven more difficult. The Spectrophotometric Elemental Analysis System (SEAS) permitted detection of low concentrations of nitrite, nitrate, and phosphate with nanomolar sensitivity and 1 Hz or better sampling frequency. Using multiple wavelength spectroscopy, the range of nitrate concentrations from 2 nM to 20 uM have been detected. Profiles of nitrite obtained across the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre revealed the close correlation between nitrite and chlorophyll fluorescence maxima, suggesting that the nitrite maximum is formed by phytoplankton when insufficient light is available to permit reduction of nitrite to ammonia.

The upwelling and cross-shelf transport dynamics along the Pacific Eastern Boundary is explored using a high resolution ocean model for the last 60 years. Three ocean circulations have been modeled. From North to South, we investigate the dynamics of the Gulf of Alaska (GOA), the California Current System (CCS) and the Humboldt Current System (HCS, also known as the Peru-Chile Current System). The statistics of coastal waters transport are computed using a model passive tracer, which is continuously released at the coast. By looking at the passive tracer concentration distribution, we find that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation modulates the coastal variability of the GOA, the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation controls the upwelling of the CCS, while the El-Niño Southern Oscillation affects the upwelling of Peru and Chile mainly through coastally trapped Kelvin waves. Results also emphasize the key role of the mesoscale eddies in the offshore transport of coastal waters masses. The passive tracer experiments, performed in this study in the GOA, CCS, and HCS, therefore could provide a dynamical framework to understand the dynamics of the upwelling/downwelling and offshore transport of nutrient rich coastal water and to interpret how it responds to atmospheric forcing. This also could reinforce our interpretation (and therefore predictions) in the changes in vertical and offshore advection of other important biogeochemical quantities, essential in understanding ecosystem variability.

Heteromorph ammonites and dinoflagellate cysts from the Upper Cretaceous Northumberland Formation on Hornby Island, British Columbia, Canada are examined. The collection and preparation of new material has enabled the recognition of eleven species of which only three have been reported from the locality. Of these taxa represented from three heteromorph ammonite families in the study area, five are new occurrences and three are new to science. This expansion of the Hornby Island ammonite fauna is presented alongside a pioneering taxonomic survey of dinoflagellate cysts from the same rocks. Together, these macro- and microfossils reinforce a late Campanian age for the Northumberland Formation with the upper extent of the section approaching the Campanian-Maastrichtian boundary (CMB) interval. The palaeoecology and evolutionary relationships of these heteromorph ammonoids are considered with new insights into their ontogenetic development and neritic palaeoenvironmental circumstances. The dinoflagellate cysts and associated terrestrial palynomorphs have also allowed for enhanced palaeoenvironmental reconstruction and depositional setting inference. The scope of the studied material, and the presence of key index taxa, enables refined biostratigraphy and a stronger basis for correlation of the Hornby Island succession with neighboring coeval biotic provinces. / Graduate / 2018-08-10

The central objective of this study is to understand phytoplankton community response following the global mass extinction event at the Cretaceous–Paleogene (K/Pg) boundary. The objective is approached through analysis of dinoflagellate cyst assemblages across the boundary interval in the North Pacific. Dinoflagellate cysts are powerful tools for deep time paleoenvironmental reconstructions and this group of microfossils has been vastly underutilized in this region of the world. On this premise, comprehensive marine palynological surveys were undertaken for the Oyster Bay Formation of eastern Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada and Shatsky Rise in the northwest Pacific. The Oyster Bay Formation work resulted in the discovery of the first K/Pg boundary succession west of the Rocky Mountains based on biostratigraphic controls and refined taxonomy for the genus Cannosphaeropsis found within these strata. Three new taxa are described: Cannosphaeropsis franciscana subsp. vacuoseptata subsp. nov., Cannosphaeropsis franciscana subsp. vesiculata subsp. nov. and Phelodinium fensomei sp. nov. The cyst assemblages reveal endemic associations and signals of transition between offshore coastal to estuarine settings in keeping with global eustatic trends. Oyster Bay Formation results and interpretations are compared to analyses of core samples from Deep Sea Drilling Project Site 577 at Shatsky Rise. Contrast is seen between a diverse, highly productive coastal to estuarine environment in the Oyster Bay Formation as represented by organic-walled taxa and an oligotrophic bathyal environment at Shatsky Rise during the same interval as represented by a small number of calcareous taxa. These two regions form the basis for comparison between differing assemblages in order to ascertain the extent to which phytoplankton communities were affected by changes in sea-surface and water mass conditions in conjunction with the K/Pg event. The findings reveal measurable impacts of climate and paleoenvironmental change reflected by shifts in assemblage composition and cyst morphology. A lack of extinction among many forms is consistent with studies from around the globe as presented in an exhaustive review of the literature. The dinoflagellates were marginally impacted with the most specialized taxa presenting a record of sea-surface temperature fluctuation, nutrient supply and opportunistic niche exploitation. / Graduate / 2022-08-20

No description available.

Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited / occurring most frequently. For the 217 large-error cases due to midlatitude influences, the most frequent error mechanisms were E-DCI (midlatitude), excessive response to vertical wind shear, excessive midlatitude cyclogenesis (E-MCG), insufficient midlatitude cyclogenesis (I-MCG), excessive midlatitude cyclolysis (E-MCL) and excessive midlatitude anticyclogenesis (E-MAG), which accounted for 68% of all large errors occurring in both NOGAPS and GFDN. Characteristics and symptoms of the erroneous forecast tracks and model fields are documented and illustrative case studies are presented. Proper identification and removal of the track forecast displaying an error mechanism could form a selective consensus that will be more accurate than a non-selective consensus. / Captain, United States Air Force

No description available.

Paleosols from the Bahamas and the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI) are closely related to past atmospheric circulation and dust load. In the Bahamas the sources of insoluble residue (IR) must be allogenic because the islands consist of almost pure carbonates. The Al2O3:TiO2 ratio was used to establish the provenance of the IR of the paleosols. Comparisons of this ratio from Bahamian paleosols, North African dust, Lesser Antilles ash and North American loess reveal that the African dust is the major contributor to the IR, with a potential minor volcanic input from the Lesser Antilles. The contribution of the North American loess to the IR was not determined because of geochemical similarities with the North African dust. The study of two outcrops in Eleuthera indicate that paleosols can act as aquicludes. The Bahamian samples were collected on a roughly north-south transect in order to establish the climatic influence on paleosol properties. Even though there is a marked climatic gradient in the Bahamas, the paleosol geochemistry shows no trend that could be related to paleoclimate. While previous studies indicated that the source of insoluble residues in the soils of CNMI is carbonate dissolution, the present study shows that atmospheric deposition of ash from the Mariana arc and dust from the Asian continent may play a significant role in paleosol formation.