The Arctic radiation climate is influenced substantially by anthropogenic and natural aerosols. There have been numerous studies devoted to understanding the radiative impacts of anthropogenic aerosols (e.g. those responsible for producing the Arctic haze phenomenon) and natural aerosols (e.g. dust and smoke) on the Arctic environment, but volcanic aerosols have received less attention. Volcanic eruptions occur frequently in the Arctic and have the capacity to be long duration, high intensity events, expelling large amounts of aerosol-sized ash and gases, which form aerosols once in the atmosphere. Additionally, volcanic eruptions deposit ash, which can alter the surface reflectivity, and remain to influence the radiation balance long after the eruptive plume has passed over and dissipated. The goal of this dissertation is to quantify the radiative effects of volcanic aerosols in the Arctic caused by volcanic plumes and deposits onto ice and snow covered surfaces. The shortwave, longwave, and net direct aerosol radiative forcing efficiencies and atmospheric heating/cooling rates caused by volcanic aerosol from the 2009 eruption of Mt. Redoubt were determined by performing radiative transfer modeling constrained by NASA A-Train satellite data. The optical properties of volcanic aerosol were calculated by introducing a compositionally resolved microphysical model developed for both ash and sulfates. Two compositions of volcanic aerosol were considered in order to examine a fresh, ash rich plume and an older, ash poor plume. The results indicate that environmental conditions, such as surface albedo and solar zenith angle, can influence the sign and the magnitude of the radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere and at the surface. Environmental conditions can also influence the magnitude of the forcing in the aerosol layer. For instance, a fresh, thin plume with a high solar zenith angle over snow cools the surface and warms the top of the atmosphere, but the opposite effect is seen by the same layer over ocean. The layer over snow also warms more than the same plume over seawater. It was found that plume aging can alter the magnitude of the radiative forcing. For example, an aged plume over snow at a high solar zenith angle would warm the top of the atmosphere and layer by less than the fresh plume, while the aged plume cools the surface more. These results were compared with those reported for other aerosols typical to the Arctic environment (smoke from wildfires, Arctic haze, and dust) to demonstrate the importance of volcanic aerosols. It is found that the radiative impacts of volcanic aerosol plumes are comparable to those of other aerosol types, and those compositions rich in volcanic ash can have greater impacts than other aerosol types. Volcanic ash deposited onto ice and snow in the Arctic has the potential to perturb the regional radiation balance by altering the surface reflectivity. The areal extent and loading of ash deposits from the 2009 eruption of Mt. Redoubt were assessed using an Eulerian volcanic ash transport and dispersion model, Fall3D, combined with satellite and deposit observations. Because observations are often limited in remote Arctic regions, we devised a novel method for modeling ash deposit loading fields for the entire eruption based on best-fit parameters of a well-studied eruptive event. The model results were validated against NASA A-train satellite data and field measurements reported by the Alaska Volcano Observatory. Overall, good to moderate agreement was found. A total cumulative deposit area of 3.7 X 10^6 km2 was produced, and loadings ranged from ~7000 ± 3000 gm-2 near the vent to <0.1 ± 0.002 gm-2 on the outskirts of the deposits. Ash loading histories for total deposits showed that fallout ranged from ~5 – 17 hours. The deposit loading results suggest that ash from short duration events can produce regionally significant deposits hundreds of kilometers from the volcano, with the potential of significantly modifying albedo over wide regions of ice and snow covered terrain. The solar broadband albedo change, surface radiative forcing, and snowmelt rates associated with the ash deposited from the 2009 eruption of Mt. Redoubt were calculated using the loadings from Fall3D and the snow, ice, and aerosol radiative models. The optical properties of ash were calculated from Mie theory, based on size information recovered from the Fall3D model. Two sizes of snow were used in order to simulate a young and old snowpack. Deposited ash sizes agree well with field measurements. Only aerosol-sized ashes in deposits were considered for radiative modeling, because larger particles are minor in abundance and confined to areas very close to the vent. The results show concentrations of ash in snow range from ~ 6.9x10^4 – 1x10^8 ppb, with higher values closer to the vent and lowest at the edge of the deposits, and integrated solar albedo reductions of ~ 0 – 59% for new snow and ~ 0 – 85% for old snow. These albedo reductions are much larger than those typical for black carbon, but on the same order of magnitude as those reported for volcanic deposits in Antarctica. The daily mean surface shortwave forcings associated with ash deposits on snow ranged from 0 – 96 Wm-2 from the outmost deposits to the vent. There were no significantly accelerated snowmelts calculated for the outskirts of the deposits. However, for areas of higher ash loadings/concentrations, daily melt rates are significantly higher (~ 220 – 320%) because of volcanic ash deposits.

Submitted by Marlene Santos (marlene.bc.ufg@gmail.com) on 2016-09-23T18:57:40Z No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertacao - Priscila Cabral Silveira Gurgel - 2016.pdf: 2031167 bytes, checksum: 22df3ff29210a62b369501594be33bb5 (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Luciana Ferreira (lucgeral@gmail.com) on 2016-09-26T11:43:47Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertacao - Priscila Cabral Silveira Gurgel - 2016.pdf: 2031167 bytes, checksum: 22df3ff29210a62b369501594be33bb5 (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-09-26T11:43:47Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertacao - Priscila Cabral Silveira Gurgel - 2016.pdf: 2031167 bytes, checksum: 22df3ff29210a62b369501594be33bb5 (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-02-29 / Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Goiás - FAPEG / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / The similarity of life-history traits among closely related species is a well-known pattern in evolutionary biology. Thus, closely related species tend to be more akin to each other than to distantly related ones. The propensity of closely related species to conserve climatic niche features over macroevolutionary time can be defined as climatic niche conservatism. Recent studies have shown the importance of environmental variables with regards to the diversity and distribution of anurans with differences in their reproductive traits under an evolutionary perspective. In this work, using frog species in the Hylidae family, we tested the hypothesis that species more independent from main bodies of water for reproduction are restricted to areas with higher temperature and precipitation means. We also investigated the evolution of climatic niche features of species with different degrees of dependence on water for reproduction. Our results corroborate the first hypothesis and show that terrestrial egg-laying species, in the Hylinae subfamily, have more conserved climatic niche position when compared to Hylinae species that deposits their eggs and tadpoles in main water bodies. Thus, we suggest that reproductive modes are associated with variation in the evolution of climatic niches of frogs. / A similaridade entre atributos de espécies aparentadas é um padrão tradicional reconhecido em biologia evolutiva. Espécies aparentadas tendem ser mais similares entre si do que com espécies não aparentadas. A tendência de espécies aparentadas conservar as características de seu nicho ao longo do tempo macroevolutivo pode ser definido como conservação filogenética de nicho. Estudos recentes tem mostrado a importância das variáveis climáticas na distribuição de anfíbios anuros com diferentes modos reprodutivos utilizando uma abordagem evolutiva. Neste trabalho, usando as espécies de pererecas da família Hylidae, testamos a hipótese de que espécies menos dependentes dos corpos d'água para reprodução ocorrem em áreas mais quentes e mais úmidas. Além disso, investigamos como foi a evolução dos atributos do nicho climático (posição e amplitude) de espécies, da subfamília Hylinae, com diferentes níveis de dependência dos corpos d'água para reprodução. Nossos resultados corroboram a primeira hipótese e mostram que, espécies da subfamília Hylinae que depositam seus ovos fora da água estão restritas a lugares mais quentes e mais úmidos. Além disso, tais espécies tem o nicho climático mais conservado do que espécies que depositam tanto ovos como girinos em corpos d'água principais. Portanto, sugerimos que os diferentes modos reprodutivos refletem em diferenças na evolução do nicho climático nas espécies da subfamília Hylinae.

Aerosols affect the global radiation budget which plays an important role in determining the state of the Earth's climate. The heterogeneous distribution of aerosols and the variety in their properties results in high uncertainty in the understanding of aerosols. Aerosols affect the radiation by scattering and absorption (direct effect) or by modifying the cloud properties which in turn affects the radiation (indirect effect). The current work focuses only on the direct radiative effect of aerosols. The change in the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) reflected flux due to the perturbation of aerosols and their properties is called direct aerosol radiative forcing (ARFTOA). Estimation of ARFTOA using aerosol properties is done by solving the radiative transfer equation using a radiative transfer model. However, before using the radiative transfer model, it has to be validated with observations for consistency. This is done to check if the model is able to replicate values close to actual observations. The current work uses the Santa Barbara DISORT Atmospheric Radiative Transfer (SBDART) model. The output radiative fluxes from SBDART are validated by comparing with the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) satellite data. Under clear-skies SBDART agreed with observed fluxes at TOA well within the error limits of satellite observations. In the shortwave solar spectrum (0.25-4 µm) radiation is affected by change in various aerosol properties and also by water vapour and other gas molecules. To study the effect of each of these molecules separately on the aerosol forcing at TOA, SBDART is used. ARFTOA is found to depend on the aerosol loading (aerosol optical depth – AOD), aerosol type (SSA) and the angular distribution of scattered radiation (asymmetry parameter). The role of water vapour relative to the aerosol layer height was also investigated and for different aerosol types and aerosol layer heights, it was found that water vapour can induce a change of ~4 Wm-2 in TOA flux. The relative importance of aerosol scattering versus absorption is evaluated through a parameter called single scattering albedo (SSA) which can be estimated from satellites. SSA defined as the ratio of scattering efficiency to total extinction efficiency, depends on the aerosol composition and wavelength. Aerosols with SSA close to 1 (sea-salt, sulphates) scatter the radiation and cool the atmosphere. Aerosols with SSA < 0.9 (black carbon, dust) absorb radiation and warm the atmosphere. Over high reflective surfaces a small change in SSA can change forcing from negative (cooling) to positive (warming). This makes SSA one of the most important and uncertain aerosol parameters. Currently, the SSA retrievals from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) are highly sensitive to sub-pixel cloud contamination and change in aerosol height. Using the sensitivity of OMI to aerosol absorption and the superior cloud masking technique and accurate AOD retrieval of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), an algorithm to retrieve SSA (OMI-MODIS) was developed. The algorithm was performed over global oceans (60S-60N) from 2008-2012. The difference in SSA estimated by OMI-MODIS and that of OMI depended on the aerosol type and aerosol layer height. Aerosol layer height plays an important role in the UV spectrum due to the dominance of Rayleigh scattering. This was verified using SBDART which otherwise would not have been possible using just satellite observations. Both the algorithms were validated with cruise measurements over Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. It was seen that when absorbing aerosols (low SSA values) were present closer to the surface, OMI overestimated the value of SSA. On the other hand OMI-MODIS algorithm, which made no assumption on the aerosol type or height, was better constrained than OMI and hence was closer to the cruise measurement The presence of clouds results in a more complex interaction between aerosols and radiation. Aerosols present above clouds are responsible to most of the direct radiative effect in cloudy regions. The ARFTOA depends not only on the aerosol properties but also on the relative position of aerosols with clouds. When absorbing aerosols are present above clouds, the ARFTOA is highly influenced by the albedo of the underlying surface. Recent studies, over regions influenced by biomass burning aerosol, have shown that it is possible to define a ‘critical cloud fraction’ (CCF) at which the aerosol direct radiative forcing switch from a cooling to a warming effect. Similar analysis was done over BoB (6.5-21.5N; 82.5-97.5E) for the years 2008-2011. Aerosol properties were taken from satellite observations. Satellites cannot provide for aerosols present at different heights and hence SBDART was used to calculate the forcing due to aerosols present only above clouds. Unlike previous studies which reported a single value of CCF, over BoB it was found that CCF varied from 0.28 to 0.13 from post-monsoon to winter as a result of shift from less absorbing to moderately absorbing aerosol. This implies that in winter, the absorbing aerosols present above clouds cause warming of the atmosphere even at low cloud fractions leading to lower CCF. The use of multiple satellites in improving the retrieval of SSA has been presented in this thesis. The effect of aerosols present above clouds on the radiative forcing at TOA is shown to be different between Bay of Bengal and Atlantic Ocean. This was due to the change in SSA of aerosols during different seasons. The effect of aerosol height, aerosol type and water vapour on the TOA flux estimation is also studied using a radiative transfer model.

Sulfur dioxide (SO2) is a gas typical of high temperature magmatic degassing, being its<p>third most abundant constituent after water vapor and carbon dioxide. SO2 flux measurements<p>are used to characterized and monitor volcanic degassing. This thesis presents advanced<p>methods for measuring the SO2 emitted in the troposphere by passive degassing volcanoes.<p>These methods are based on the absorption of infrared (IR) and ultraviolet (UV) light by SO2<p>molecules. They make use of the data acquired by satellite borne sensors (ASTER, OMI and<p>MODIS), and collected in the field using a UV camera equipped with filters<p>ASTER is a multispectral sensor observing the Earth in the thermal IR with a 90 m<p>ground resolution. The developed retrieval algorithm works with band ratios<p>(B10+B12)/2B11 and B14/B11, to avoid spectral interference from other variables than SO2.<p>With this algorithm, the impact of interferers such as atmospheric water vapor, sulfate<p>aerosols and ground emissivity is minimal, as demonstrated by radiative transfer simulations<p>by applying of the algorithm to real ASTER images and by comparing the results with ground<p>based data. ASTER is a kind of unifying thread for this thesis because its high ground<p>resolution fills the gap existing between highly localized ground based SO2 measurements and<p>the global coverage of other satellites with coarser pixels such as OMI and MODIS.<p>OMI is an imaging spectrometer operating in the UV, with a daily global coverage, a<p>high sensitivity to SO2 and a ground resolution of 13x24km. The OMI-ASTER comparison<p>shows that the SO2 columns measured on OMI pixels are two orders of magnitude smaller<p>than those of ASTER, because of the huge difference in the pixel size of the two satellites.<p>The flux measurements however are generally in good agreement. The analysis of a large<p>number of images shows that ASTER is better for cloud free scenes while OMI has an<p>optimal signal to noise ratio when the plume is lying above a low cloud cover. A practical<p>detection limit for SO2 flux measurements in tropospheric plumes has also been established:<p>5kg/s.<p>The comparison between ASTER measurements of SO2 column amounts with those of<p>MODIS (a multispectral IR imager with 1km ground resolution) shed light on systematic<p>errors in MODIS measurements. These errors were quantified and their origins were separated<p>and identified. This work demonstrates the limitations of MODIS for SO2 measurements.<p>A UV camera equipped with filters has also been developed to achieve 2D SO2 from the<p>ground at a high spatial and temporal resolution. The potential provided by this new type of<p>instruments has been demonstrated during a field campaign on Turrialba Volcano (Costa<p>Rica). The integration of measurements obtained using the camera, ASTER and OMI revealed<p>a high and sustained SO2 flux, which can be explained only by the degassing of a recently<p>intruded magma body. The slow decrease of SO2 flux since January 2010 suggests a<p>progressive exhaustion of the volatile content of the magma.<p>Finally, we applied the band ratio algorithm to a series of ASTER images of the recent<p>eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in April-May 2010. The SO2 measurements provide interesting<p>insights into the complex eruptive dynamics and into the control of hydromagmatic<p>interactions on eruptive gas release into the atmosphere. /<p><p>Le dioxyde de soufre (SO2) est un gaz typique du dégazage magmatique de haute<p>température, dont il est le troisième composant le plus abondant derrière H2O et CO2. Le flux<p>de SO2 est un excellent paramètre pour caractériser le dégazage volcanique et surveiller son<p>évolution dans le temps. Cette thèse présente de nouvelles méthodes de mesures des flux de<p>SO2 émis par l’activité volcanique. Ces méthodes se basent sur l’absorption de la molécule de<p>SO2 dans l’infrarouge (IR) et l’ultraviolet (UV). Elles utilisent les données prises par des<p>senseurs embarqués sur des satellites (ASTER, OMI et MODIS) ou opérés depuis le sol<p>(caméra UV munie de filtres).<p>Le senseur ASTER opère dans l’IR thermique avec une résolution spatiale de 90 m par<p>pixel. L’algorithme de mesure développé pour ce satellite n’est sensible qu’à la concentration<p>en SO2 et pratiquement pas aux paramètres interférents qui posaient problèmes aux méthodes<p>existantes :la vapeur d’eau atmosphérique, les aérosols de sulfate dans le panache et<p>l’émissivité de la surface sous-jacente. ASTER est un peu le fil conducteur de cette thèse, car<p>sa haute résolution spatiale lui permet de faire le lien entre des mesures au sol et les mesures<p>faites par d’autres satellites comme OMI et MODIS.<p>Le satellite OMI est un spectromètre imageant qui opère dans l’UV, avec une<p>couverture globale journalière, une haute sensitivité au SO2 et une résolution spatiale de<p>13x24km. La comparaison OMI-ASTER montre que les colonnes mesurées sur les pixels<p>d’OMI sont de deux ordres de grandeur inférieurs à celles d’ASTER, à cause de la différence<p>de résolution spatiale entre les deux satellites. Les mesures de flux, par contre, montrent une<p>très bonne concordance. L’analyse d’un grand nombre d’images a permis d’établir qu’ASTER<p>est meilleur pour des scènes sans nuages tandis qu’OMI est meilleur quand une couverture<p>nuageuse présente sous le panache augmente son rapport signal sur bruit. Une limite de<p>détection pratique a aussi été établie pour les flux de SO2 dans les panaches volcaniques dans<p>la basse troposphère :5kg/s.<p>La comparaison des mesures d’ASTER avec celle de MODIS a permis de démontrer les<p>limites de MODIS pour la mesure du SO2. Des erreurs systématiques sur les mesures de<p>MODIS on été mises en évidence et quantifiées. Ces erreurs sont dues aux interférents<p>spectraux que sont la vapeur d’eau atmosphérique et les aérosols sulfatés. L’émissivité est<p>aussi un important facteur d’erreur pour MODIS.<p>Une caméra UV équipée d’un système de filtres a également été développée pour<p>mesurer le SO2 en 2D, à haute résolution spatiale et temporelle. Le potentiel offert par ce<p>nouveau type d’instrument a été démontré lors d’une campagne de mesures sur le volcan<p>Turrialba (Costa Rica). La combinaison de mesures de SO2 réalisée avec la caméra, ASTER<p>et OMI a permis de mettre en évidence des flux très élevés (30-50kg/s) qui ne peuvent<p>s’expliquer que par une intrusion récente de magma juvénile en cours de dégazage.<p>Enfin, les mesures de SO2 ont réalisées à partir des images ASTER pendant l’éruption<p>du volcan Eyjafjallajökull en avril-mai 2010. Ces mesures fournissent des informations<p>intéressantes sur les dynamismes éruptifs qui se sont succédé et sur le contrôle des émissions<p>de SO2 dans l’atmosphère par les interactions magma-eau. / Doctorat en Sciences / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

Many analysts believe that problems in the U.S. housing market initiated the 2008–2010 global financial crisis. In this regard, the subprime mortgage crisis (SMC) shook the foundations of the financial industry by causing the failure of many iconic Wall Street investment banks and prominent depository institutions. This crisis stymied credit extension to households and businesses thus creating credit crunches and, ultimately, a global recession. This thesis specifically discusses the SMC and its components, causes, consequences and cures in relation to subprime mortgages, securitization, as well as data. In particular, the SMC has highlighted the fact that risk, credit ratings, profit and valuation as well as capital regulation are important banking considerations. With regard to risk, the thesis discusses credit (including counterparty), market (including interest rate, basis, prepayment, liquidity and price), tranching (including maturity mismatch and synthetic), operational (including house appraisal, valuation and compensation) and systemic (including maturity transformation) risks. The thesis introduces the IDIOM hypothesis that postulates that the SMC was largely caused by the intricacy and design of subprime agents, mortgage origination and securitization that led to information problems (loss, asymmetry and contagion), valuation opaqueness and ineffective risk mitigation. It also contains appropriate examples, discussions, timelines as well as appendices about the main results on the aforementioned topics. Numerous references point to the material not covered in the thesis, and indicate some avenues for further research. In the thesis, the primary subprime agents that we consider are house appraisers (HAs), mortgage brokers (MBs), mortgagors (MRs), servicers (SRs), SOR mortgage insurers (SOMIs), trustees, underwriters, credit rating agencies (CRAs), credit enhancement providers (CEPs) and monoline insurers (MLIs). Furthermore, the banks that we study are subprime interbank lenders (SILs), subprime originators (SORs), subprime dealer banks (SDBs) and their special purpose vehicles (SPVs) such as Wall Street investment banks and their special structures as well as subprime investing banks (SIBs). The main components of the SMC are MRs, the housing market, SDBs/hedge funds/money market funds/SIBs, the economy as well as the government (G) and central banks. Here, G either plays a regulatory or policymaking role. Most of the aforementioned agents and banks are assumed to be risk neutral with SOR being the exception since it can be risk (and regret) averse on occasion. The main aspects of the SMC - subprime mortgages, securitization, as well as data - that we cover in this thesis and the chapters in which they are found are outlined below. In Chapter 2, we discuss the dynamics of subprime SORs' risk and profit as well as their valuation under mortgage origination. In particular, we model subprime mortgages that are able to fully amortize, voluntarily prepay or default and construct a discrete–time model for SOR risk and profit incorporating costs of funds and mortgage insurance as well as mortgage losses. In addition, we show how high loan–to–value ratios due to declining housing prices curtailed the refinancing of subprime mortgages, while low ratios imply favorable house equity for subprime MRs. Chapter 3 investigates the securitization of subprime mortgages into structured mortgage products such as subprime residential mortgage–backed securities (RMBSs) and collateralized debt obligations (CDOs). In this regard, our discussions focus on information, risk and valuation as well as the role of capital under RMBSs and RMBS CDOs. Our research supports the view that incentives to monitor mortgages has been all but removed when changing from a traditional mortgage model to a subprime mortgage model. In the latter context, we provide formulas for IB's profit and valuation under RMBSs and RMBS CDOs. This is illustrated via several examples. Chapter 3 also explores the relationship between mortgage securitization and capital under Basel regulation and the SMC. This involves studying bank credit and capital under the Basel II paradigm where risk–weights vary. Further issues dealt with are the quantity and pricing of RMBSs, RMBS CDOs as well as capital under Basel regulation. Furthermore, we investigate subprime RMBSs and their rates with slack and holding constraints. Also, we examine the effect of SMC–induced credit rating shocks in future periods on subprime RMBSs and RMBS payout rates. A key problem is whether Basel capital regulation exacerbated the SMC. Very importantly, the thesis answers this question in the affirmative. Chapter 4 explores issues related to subprime data. In particular, we present mortgage and securitization level data and forge connections with the results presented in Chapters 2 and 3. The work presented in this thesis is based on 2 peer–reviewed chapters in books (see [99] and [104]), 2 peer–reviewed international journal articles (see [48] and [101]), and 2 peer–reviewed conference proceeding papers (see [102] and [103]). / Thesis (Ph.D. (Applied Mathematics))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2011.

Many analysts believe that problems in the U.S. housing market initiated the 2008–2010 global financial crisis. In this regard, the subprime mortgage crisis (SMC) shook the foundations of the financial industry by causing the failure of many iconic Wall Street investment banks and prominent depository institutions. This crisis stymied credit extension to households and businesses thus creating credit crunches and, ultimately, a global recession. This thesis specifically discusses the SMC and its components, causes, consequences and cures in relation to subprime mortgages, securitization, as well as data. In particular, the SMC has highlighted the fact that risk, credit ratings, profit and valuation as well as capital regulation are important banking considerations. With regard to risk, the thesis discusses credit (including counterparty), market (including interest rate, basis, prepayment, liquidity and price), tranching (including maturity mismatch and synthetic), operational (including house appraisal, valuation and compensation) and systemic (including maturity transformation) risks. The thesis introduces the IDIOM hypothesis that postulates that the SMC was largely caused by the intricacy and design of subprime agents, mortgage origination and securitization that led to information problems (loss, asymmetry and contagion), valuation opaqueness and ineffective risk mitigation. It also contains appropriate examples, discussions, timelines as well as appendices about the main results on the aforementioned topics. Numerous references point to the material not covered in the thesis, and indicate some avenues for further research. In the thesis, the primary subprime agents that we consider are house appraisers (HAs), mortgage brokers (MBs), mortgagors (MRs), servicers (SRs), SOR mortgage insurers (SOMIs), trustees, underwriters, credit rating agencies (CRAs), credit enhancement providers (CEPs) and monoline insurers (MLIs). Furthermore, the banks that we study are subprime interbank lenders (SILs), subprime originators (SORs), subprime dealer banks (SDBs) and their special purpose vehicles (SPVs) such as Wall Street investment banks and their special structures as well as subprime investing banks (SIBs). The main components of the SMC are MRs, the housing market, SDBs/hedge funds/money market funds/SIBs, the economy as well as the government (G) and central banks. Here, G either plays a regulatory or policymaking role. Most of the aforementioned agents and banks are assumed to be risk neutral with SOR being the exception since it can be risk (and regret) averse on occasion. The main aspects of the SMC - subprime mortgages, securitization, as well as data - that we cover in this thesis and the chapters in which they are found are outlined below. In Chapter 2, we discuss the dynamics of subprime SORs' risk and profit as well as their valuation under mortgage origination. In particular, we model subprime mortgages that are able to fully amortize, voluntarily prepay or default and construct a discrete–time model for SOR risk and profit incorporating costs of funds and mortgage insurance as well as mortgage losses. In addition, we show how high loan–to–value ratios due to declining housing prices curtailed the refinancing of subprime mortgages, while low ratios imply favorable house equity for subprime MRs. Chapter 3 investigates the securitization of subprime mortgages into structured mortgage products such as subprime residential mortgage–backed securities (RMBSs) and collateralized debt obligations (CDOs). In this regard, our discussions focus on information, risk and valuation as well as the role of capital under RMBSs and RMBS CDOs. Our research supports the view that incentives to monitor mortgages has been all but removed when changing from a traditional mortgage model to a subprime mortgage model. In the latter context, we provide formulas for IB's profit and valuation under RMBSs and RMBS CDOs. This is illustrated via several examples. Chapter 3 also explores the relationship between mortgage securitization and capital under Basel regulation and the SMC. This involves studying bank credit and capital under the Basel II paradigm where risk–weights vary. Further issues dealt with are the quantity and pricing of RMBSs, RMBS CDOs as well as capital under Basel regulation. Furthermore, we investigate subprime RMBSs and their rates with slack and holding constraints. Also, we examine the effect of SMC–induced credit rating shocks in future periods on subprime RMBSs and RMBS payout rates. A key problem is whether Basel capital regulation exacerbated the SMC. Very importantly, the thesis answers this question in the affirmative. Chapter 4 explores issues related to subprime data. In particular, we present mortgage and securitization level data and forge connections with the results presented in Chapters 2 and 3. The work presented in this thesis is based on 2 peer–reviewed chapters in books (see [99] and [104]), 2 peer–reviewed international journal articles (see [48] and [101]), and 2 peer–reviewed conference proceeding papers (see [102] and [103]). / Thesis (Ph.D. (Applied Mathematics))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2011.

L’étude de la conflictualité armée dans les pays en développement et des effets des interventions extérieures visant à la circonscrire constitue un enjeu majeur et multidisciplinaire. La complexité des processus sociaux entrelacés dans de tels contextes génère des défis particuliers pour les approches de modélisation et simulation informatique. En effet la forme des conflits actuels, centrés autour des populations locales, a amené les forces de stabilisation à développer des actions dites d'influence, qui se donnent pour but de convaincre les locaux de la légitimité des opérations. Ce travail en retient trois (opérations psychologiques OMI/PSYOPS, opérations civilo-militaires et Key Leader Engagements) et propose une modélisation permettant de représenter la propagation de leurs effets au sein d'une population virtuelle réaliste. Cela nécessite une représentation détaillée des mécanismes psychologiques de persuasion et d’influence et des structures sociales considérées, et constitue donc un apport à l’analyse des processus de communication au sein de réseaux sociaux. On fait le choix d'une simulation sociale orientée agents permettant de représenter d'une part un échantillon composé uniquement d'individus (jusqu’à environ 10 000) dotés de mécanismes de traitement réalistes, et d'autre part la complexité des sphères de sociabilité collective en générant cette population sous forme d'un réseau multicouche. Le modèle conceptuel ainsi conçu permet d’intégrer pour chaque étape des critères pertinents pour la simulation des actions, mais aussi, eut égard à la nature même de celles-ci et de leurs enjeux, d’éclairer certains mécanismes sociaux caractéristiques d’un conflit armé / The study, analysis and understanding of armed violence phenomenons in developing countries and of the effects of international military interventions aimed at resolving them is a crucial contemporary issue. These situations coincidentally present, considering the plethora and complexity of the implicated and intertwined social processes, a challenge for social computing, modeling and simulation. A challenge but also an opportunity, as the evolution of the forms of conflict, today centered on the local populations, has prompted the armies tasked with implementing stabilization missions to develop influence actions. Such operations, overall concerned with persuading the locals of the legitimacy of the operations, allow a more comprehensive approach to conflict resolution, beyond the simple use of force. Modeling some of these specific actions (PSYOPS, CIMIC, and Key Leader Engagement) is a credible project and a contribution to analysis of communication and persuasion processes in social networks by taking into account detailed and specific social and cultural factors. This research thus presents a conceptual model allowing simulation of the effects of these specific actions of influence in a realistic civilian population. We chose an agent-based approach as these lend particularly well with this type of research, allowing us to generate a group of up to 10,000 agents, composed solely of individuals for a detailed cognitive treatment, and structured as a multilayer network for representing complex sociality. Given the nature of such actions and their context of application, such a model also highlights some social mechanisms typical of armed conflict situations