With the rise of social media, people have gained a platform to express opinions and discuss current subjects with others. This thesis investigates whether a simple sentiment analysis — determining how positive a tweet about a given party is — can be used to predict the results of the Swedish general election and compares the results to betting odds and opinion polls. The results show that while the idea is an interesting one, and sometimes the data can point in the right direction, it is by far a reliable source to predict election outcomes.

O presente estudo se baseou em levantamentos retrospectivos e prospectivos obtidos de bovinos abatidos no Frigorífico Bertin, em Lins-SP. No primeiro levantamento consultaram-se os registros do Serviço de Inspeção Federal de ocorrência de alterações hepáticas em 1.568.821 bovinos (85% machos e 15% fêmeas), proveniente de seis Estados (SP, MS, PR, GO, MT e MG) durante os anos de 2002 a 2006. Consideraram-se os animais abatidos no último trimestre de cada ano como terminados em confinamento, sendo os demais criados continuamente em regime extensivo. Os abscessos hepáticos (1,60%) foram a segunda mais freqüente alteração hepática após a teleangectasia (1,67%). A freqüência desses abscessos foi maior em bovinos confinados (2,54%) que nos criados extensivamente (1,28%) e em fêmeas (1,85%) que em machos (1,56%). O confinamento aumenta o fator de risco (FR) de surgimento de abscessos hepáticos na ordem de 2,01 vezes. Maior freqüência de abscessos foi registrada em bovinos oriundos do Paraná, em ambos os sistemas de terminação. No levantamento prospectivo foram acompanhados o abate de 1.617 bovinos nos meses de dezembro de 2007 (n=858) e outubro de 2008 (n=759). Os abscessos hepáticos foram registrados de acordo com a freqüência, tamanho, número e localização dos mesmos em 1.617 animais; a mucosa ruminal foi avaliada (n=1.397) quanto à presença de ruminite, sua classificação e área afetada; e os pulmões (n=759) examinados para a detecção de hepatização pulmonar nas diferentes regiões, lóbos e lóbulos pulmonares, assim como grau de acometimento nos lóbulos. Foram detectados abscessos hepáticos, ruminites e pulmões hepatizados em 3,29%, 11,88% e 8,30% dos animais, respectivamente. Os abscessos estiveram igualmente distribuídos em todas as quatro regiões hepáticas, e na maioria dos casos (78,26%) os mesmos eram de pequeno tamanho (< 2,5cm) e número (até dois/órgão). Foram encontrados quatro tipos de ruminites, sendo a mais freqüente a retração cicatricial (54,22%), seguido de retalhos aderentes (24,10%), vilosidades aderidas (13,25%) e ruminite erosiva (8,43%). Em 32,53% desses casos à área afetada do rúmen ultrapassava os 300cm2. Animais com ruminite apresentavam um altíssimo risco (FR=12,67x) de manifestar abscessos hepáticos e hepatização pulmonar (FR=5,8x), com destaque para a ruminite erosiva. A hepatização pulmonar foi mais freqüente na região ventral (71,4%) que dorsal (28,6%), nos lóbulos esquerdos (59,79%) que direitos (40,21%) e na maioria dos casos acometia apenas um lóbulo (53,97%) não atingindo a hepatização mais do que 50% deste (66,6%). Abscessos hepáticos ocorreram com maior freqüência quando concomitantemente um único lóbulo pulmonar era acometido (FR=3,0x) e este se apresentava com menos de 50% de seu parênquima hepatizado (FR=11,61x). / A retrospective and prospective survey was carried out in cattle slaughtered in a private abattoir in the State of Sao Paulo, Brazil. The first survey was based on the reports done by the Federal Inspection Service of the liver condemnations among 1,568,821 cattle (85% steers; 15% cows and heifers) from six different Brazilian states during 2002 and 2006. Feedlot cattle were mostly slaughtered in the last trimester of each year, while the cattle bred extensively were in the remaining months. The abscesses (1.60%) were the second highest cause of liver condemnation after telangiectasis (1.67%). The frequency of liver abscesses were higher in feedlot cattle (2.54%) than those bred extensively (1.28%), female (1.85%) than male (1.56%). Feedlot increased the outcome (odds ratio OD= 2.01x) of liver abscess. The highest frequency of liver abscess was detected in feedlot and extensively bred cattle from the Parana state. The prospective survey was carried out following the slaughtering of 1,617 cattle during the months of December 2007 (n=858) and October 2008 (n=759). The abscesses frequency, size, number and location in the liver were recorded in all animals; the rumen mucosa (n=1,397) was examined for the presence, type and size of ruminitis; the lungs (n=759) were also examined for detection of consolidation, evaluating the affected region, number of lobes and lesion score. The following frequencies were seen: liver abscess (3.29%), ruminitis (11.88%) and lung consolidation (8.30%). The abscesses were equally distributed in all hepatic regions; most abscesses (78.2%) were small (< 2.5cm) and present in low number (1-2/liver). Four different types of ruminitis were seen: scars (54.22%), adherent contents (21.10%), clumped villi (13.25%) and erosive ruminitis (8.43%). In many cases (32.53%) the ruminitis spread to an area larger than 300cm2. Cattle with ruminitis had a very high risk of contracting liver abscesses (OD=12.67x) and lung consolidation (OR= 5.8x), principally with erosive ruminitis. Lung consolidation was mostly seen in the ventral (71.4%) than dorsal areas (28.6%), in the left (59.79%) than right lobes (40.21%); in most cases a single lobe was affected (53.97%) and less than 50% of the lobe was consolidated (66.6%). Liver abscesses were commonly seen in cattle with a single lobe (OD=3.0x) and less than 50% of this lobe consolidated (OR=11.61x).

Prediction markets provide a promising approach for future event prediction. Most existing prediction market approaches are based on auction mechanisms. Despite their theoretical appeal and success in various application settings, these mechanisms suffer from several major drawbacks. First, opinions from experts and amateurs are treated equally. Second, continuous attention from participants is assumed. Third, such mechanisms are subject to various forms of market manipulation. To alleviate these limitations, we propose to employ the classic fixed odds betting as an alternative prediction market mechanism. We build a structural model based on a belief-decision framework as the event probability estimator. This belief-decision framework models bettors' beliefs with mixed beta distributions and bettors' decisions with prospect theory. A maximum likelihood approach is applied to estimate the model parameters. We conducted experiments on three real-world betting datasets to evaluate our proposed approach. Experimental results show that fixed odds betting based prediction outperforms the reduced form models based on odds and betting results, and achieves a comparable performance with auction-based prediction markets. The results suggest the possibility of employing fixed odds betting as a prediction market in a variety of application contexts where the assumptions made by auction-based approaches do not hold.

The thesis describing Strategy of business unit is divided into three parts. First theoretical part summarizes strategic management together with strategic analysis, consisting of external and internal part. Second part describes operations on betting market, contemporary Czech market, its development and actual services offered. Last part analyses the strategy of Tipsport Company. It contains basic characteristic of the company followed by development of individual parts of business strategy such as SWOT and PEST analysis and marketing strategy.

This thesis was written in order to introduce relatively unknown investment activity. It shows basic principles of value betting and investment technique called "Asian handicap" which is used by the most of successful investors. These activities take place on Asian markets, that is why I describe processes and rules which are used there. The reader will be shown how professional analyst calculates his own fair odds. This is very important for his decision-making about investments. The practical part of the thesis covers activities of analysts during short (one week) and long (one year) period. Everything was registered, commented and put into context with theoretical facts. Results were evaluated too. This thesis offers different view on the activity which changed from pure gamble into new investment option.

The thesis provides a comprehensive overview of the working of betting companies and characterizes the Czech lottery and gambling market. It analyzes the main reasons why the economics of sport deals with the economics of gambling. Special attention is paid to the bookmakers market. Furthermore, it analyzes the domestic and European legislation concerning with betting. It is explained the way of collecting of lottery an gambling levies and taxes.

Background: Investigators are often interested in using population-level health administrative data in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) patients to study disease outcomes, risk factors and treatment effects to enhance knowledge, shape clinical practice and influence health care policy. A major limitation of using health administrative data for these purposes is the lack of detailed clinical data to adjust for the confounding effects of differential disease severity on observed associations. Methods to account for disease severity using administrative variables would offer a major advance to population-level studies in IBD patients. Thus, in this study we aimed to use a cohort of IBD patients from The Ottawa Hospital (TOH) to validate a model that was originally developed in Manitoba for estimating clinical disease course in IBD patients through healthcare utilization measures. Objectives: The objectives of this thesis are: 1) To identify and characterize a reference cohort of IBD patients in the ambulatory clinics of four gastroenterologists from TOH on clinical disease course in the preceding year (reference cohort), based on a Manitoba definition of clinical disease course; 2) To fit a partial proportional odds (PPO) model for predicting IBD course, derived using Manitoba health administrative data, to the reference cohort of IBD patients using Ontario health administrative data; 3) To derive new PPO models of IBD disease course for the reference cohort using Ontario administrative variables and compare model performance; and 4) To apply the models to the Ontario Crohn’s and Colitis cohort (OCCC) to estimate IBD course in Ontario, and compare the distribution to that of the Manitoba IBD population.Methods: We first identified a reference cohort of IBD patients in Ontario from the outpatient clinics at TOH during fiscal year 2015. Through chart review, we classified these patients into one of four clinical disease categories (remission, mild, moderate, or severe) using the Manitoba definition. We linked these patients to Ontario health administrative datasets. Given slight differences in data structure and coding between Manitoba and Ontario, we were unable to directly test the Manitoba model and instead fit a PPO model to the Ontario cohort using analogous administrative variables to those used in the final Manitoba model (“adapted model”). We subsequently derived new PPO models using unique Ontario administrative variables under three strategies: 1) Stepwise variable selection (“stepwise model”); 2) Forced fitting of all variables (“all-variables model”); and 3) Using a two-step modelling algorithm that considered IBD-related hospitalizations separate from other administrative variables (“two-step model”). We then compared model performance from the four strategies. Finally, we applied the models to the Ontario IBD population from 2004 to 2016 and compared model estimates to those from Manitoba. Results: We identified 963 patients with IBD from TOH outpatient clinics, of which 52.3% (n=504) were males, 64.6% (n=622) had Crohn's Disease, and 89.2% (n=859) resided in an urban setting. Based on the Manitoba definition, 64.9% of patients within our reference cohort were classified as remission, while 11.4%, 14.1%, and 9.6% were classified as mild, moderate, and severe disease course, respectively. The adapted model (c-statistic 0.77, goodness-fit p-value 0.28) performed comparably to the other models: the stepwise model (c-statistic 0.77, goodness-fit p-value 0.50), the all-variables model (c-statistic 0.77, goodness-fit p-value 0.53), and the two-step model (c-statistic 0.78, goodness-fit p-value 0.75). The adapted model also resulted in overall similar estimates with regards to the disease course distribution among the Ontario IBD population. However, on closer inspection, our two-step model, in which individuals who had been hospitalized for an IBD-related indication within the past year were assumed to have severe disease, performed better with respect to accurately classifying individuals with moderate or severe disease, without sacrificing discriminative ability. Based on the two-step model, from 2004 to 2016, 89.2-91.2% of the Ontario IBD population was in remission, 0% had mild disease, 2.4-3.2% had moderate disease, and 5.9-8.4% had severe disease. Distribution of disease course among IBD patients in Ontario differed considerably than that in Manitoba. Conclusion: In the absence of clinical information within health administrative data, we present and compare four different models that can be used to partially account for the confounding effect of disease course among IBD patients in future population-based studies using Ontario health administrative data. Given that our models did not perform as originally expected, especially with regards to accurately identifying individuals with more active disease states, we advise researchers to use these models at their own discretion.

Title: Marketing communication of the betting agency Sazkabet Objectives: The main goal of this thesis is to design a marketing communication, that will help to retain existing customers and to address new ones who belong to target group. Methods: There were used qualittative methods in this thesis. Specifically, there were three semi-structured interviews with employees of the betting office Sazkabet, who work with individual marketing tools. An analysis of texts, documents, websites and social media was also used. Results: The analysis found that the betting agency Sazkabet does not use all marketing tools as effectively as it could. I suggest to the company specific improvements in advertising, sales promotion, digital marketing, influence marketing and sponsorship. Likewise, I recommend a plan for the use of individual marketing instruments for 2021 Keywords: Marketing communication mix, odds betting, hazard, Sazka a.s.

The tetrachoric correlation describes the linear relation between two continuous variables that have each been measured on a dichotomous scale. The treatment of the point estimate, standard error, interval estimate, and sample size requirement for the tetrachoric correlation is cursory and incomplete in modern psychometric and behavioral statistics texts. A new and simple method of accurately approximating the tetrachoric correlation is introduced. The tetrachoric approximation is then used to derive a simple standard error, confidence interval, and sample size planning formula. The new confidence interval is shown to perform far better than the confidence interval computed by SAS. A method to improve the SAS confidence interval is proposed. All of the new results are computationally simple and are ideally suited for textbook and classroom presentations.

Chronic kidney disease greatly raises cardiovascular disease risk. Heart disease and death risk grow proportionately with renal disease progression. Investigate the link between cardiovascular disease prevalence and chronic renal disease severity and mortality using meta-analysis. In this study, 155 publications were found after searching several databases (including PubMed and Google Scholar). 48 studies that matched the inclusion criteria were included in the literature review, however, only 20 were included in the meta-analysis. 17101 people had CKD, while 8883 had CVD or non-CVD. Using the R programming language, a meta-analysis was performed to get a pooled impact of the influence of CVD on the severity of CKD (odds ratio OR), and a funnel plot was also generated to check for publication bias. The outcomes of the meta-analysis indicate that cardiovascular disease has a moderate impact on the severity of chronic kidney disease (OR=2.28, 95% CI, 1.90-2.73). All data will give essential insights into the epidemiology of the cardiovascular disease in chronic kidney disease (CKD), disclose the influence of individual risk variables on bad outcomes, and serve as the platform for future interventional research. Further investigation of the particular (non-traditional) risk factors associated with the renal illness that contribute to accelerated atherosclerosis in this population is necessary to improve the efficacy of cardiovascular treatments for patients with CKD. The purpose of this research is to determine whether and how these variables affect the development of CKD. / <p>Utbytesstudent.</p>