The purpose of this study was to analyze how sporting performance explains price changes for listed football clubs during the period 2017-2021. The explanatory variables used by the study were all related to the outcome of the match result and to the advance expectations that the market had regarding the match result. The study is of interest to many people, including investors, who can absorb the knowledge about how the stock market for football clubs behaves in order to be able to make advantageous investment strategy decisions around match days. Another relevant actor who is interested in the results of the study is researchers who want to test the relevance of the effective market hypothesis. Returns on football clubs' shares in relationship with match results constitute a unique opportunity to study this theory.  The study uses a quantitative method with a deductive approach and the scientific approach is positivist. The total number of observed match results was 1 188.  The results of the study indicate that in a match result that ends with a victory for the surveyed team, an average abnormal return (AAR) is shown, which is positive by 0.7%. Match results that end in a draw have a negative AAR of 1.0%, and loss results also have a negative impact on the AAR of 0.7%. With regard to expectations in advance, the results show that both the expected and unexpected results have a significant effect on share price changes, which applies to victories as well as to losses. The results from the regression analysis indicate that the explanatory power is 4.25%. This means that 4.25% of the variation of the dependent variable, abnormal return, can be explained by the independent variable, deviating points.  The study concludes that the stock market for football clubs reacts to news about information regarding match results. Wins are information of a positive nature which thus has a positive effect on the change in the share price. The opposite is true for both draws and losses. Expectations of the match result in advance also have an effect on price changes. / Syftet med denna studie var att analysera hur sportslig prestation förklarar kursförändringar för börsnoterade fotbollsklubbars aktiebolag under tidsperioden 2017-2021. De förklarande variablerna som studien använde var alla relaterade till matchresulatets utfall samt till de på förhand satta förväntningar som marknaden hade kring matchresultatet. Studien är av intresse för flertalet aktörer däribland investerare, som kan ta till sig kunskapen kring hur aktiemarknaden för fotbollsklubbar beter sig för att kunna ta fördelaktiga investeringsstrategibeslut kring matchdagar. En annan relevant aktör som har intresse av studiens resultat är forskare som vill testa den effektiva marknadshypotesens relevans. Avkastningar på fotbollsklubbars aktier i samband med matchresultat utgör en unik möjlighet att studera denna teori.  Studien använder en kvantitativ metod med en deduktiv ansats och det vetenskapliga förhållningssättet är positivistiskt. Antalet observerade matchresultat var totalt 1 188 stycken.  Studiens resultat indikerar att vid ett matchresultat som slutar med en seger för det undersökta laget så uppvisas en genomsnittlig avvikande avkastning (AAR) som är positiv med 0,7%. Matchresultat som slutar oavgjort har ett negativt AAR på 1,0%, och förlustresultat har även det en negativ inverkan på AAR på 0,7%. När det gäller förhandsförväntningarna så visar resultaten att både de väntade och oväntade resultaten har en signifikant effekt på aktiekursförändringar, vilket gäller för segrar likväl för förluster. Resultaten från regressionsanalysen indikerar att förklaringsgraden är 4,25%. Den säger då att 4,25% av variationen hos den beroende variabeln, avvikande avkastning, kan förklaras av den oberoende variabeln, avvikande poäng.  Studiens slutsats är att aktiemarknaden för fotbollsklubbar reagerar vid nyheter kring information gällande matchresultat. Segrar är information av positiv karaktär som därmed har en positiv inverkan på aktiekursens förändring. Det motsatta förhållandet råder för både oavgjorda resultat och förlustresultat. Även förhandsförväntningar på matchresultatet har effekt på kursförändringar.

This thesis provides insights into the creation of a model for predicting odds in the Premier League. It illustrates how the ELO system and historical odds, in combination with Monte Carlo simulations, can be implemented through logistic regression to predict odds in an unbiased way. The findings are that the model performs generally well, but significantly worse at the beginning and end of the Premier League seasons. For further improvements, it is most likely necessary to factor in variables not available in the current model. Such factors could for example be incentives, injuries, or changes in the squad, all not being accounted for by the model in this case. / Detta examensarbete ger insikter om skapandet av en modell för att förutsäga oddsen i Premier League. Den visar hur ELO-systemet och historiska odds, i kombination med Monte Carlo-simuleringar, kan implementeras genom logistisk regression för att förutsäga oddsen på ett opartiskt sätt. Resultaten visar att modellen generellt sett fungerar bra, men betydligt sämre i början och slutet av Premier League-säsongerna. För ytterligare förbättringar är det troligtvis nödvändigt att ta hänsyn till variabler som inte är tillgängliga i den nuvarande modellen. Sådana faktorer kan till exempel vara incitament, skador eller förändringar i truppen, som alla inte tas hänsyn till i modellen i detta fall.

The thesis is concerned with an issue of operation of lotteries from the perspec- tive of financial law in the Czech Republic. The aim is to provide an analysis of current legislation and to put forward adequate solutions de lege ferenda. Apart from an introductory chapter and a conclusion, the thesis consists of five chapters. The first one describes the term "betting games" and distinguishes it from the terms "games" (in general) and "lotteries and other like games". The first chapter is also devoted to "game law" meaning a comprehensive set of legal provisions related to the issue. The second chapter sets the betting games into the scope of private law. It focus- es on particular eras of the civil legislation in historical context of the current Czech Republic, from 1811 to 2013. That part of the thesis looks at the current civil legisla- tion, which is stated in the act No. 89/2012 Coll., the Civil Code, and which came into force as of January 1, 2014. Next chapter critically evaluates a legal regulation of operation of betting games, which is grounded in public law. That legislation provides regulatory bases of running objective business. The legislation is mainly made by the act No. 202/1990 Coll., on lotteries and other like games, as amended. The act infringes the European law. Nev-...

M.A. University of the Witwatersrand, Faculty of Humanities (Population Studies), 2012 / This study is based on secondary data analysis of the 1998 South African Demographic and Health Survey (SADHS) data set. The aim of the study was to identify socio-demographic, socio-economic and environmental variables that affect the survival of South African children under the age of five years. Descriptive analyses, frequency tables, Pearson’s chi-square tests of association and binary logistic regression analysis were used for data analysis in this study. Mothers who lost an under-five child were predominantly Black and rural. Such mothers were characterized by rural residential areas, relatively large family sizes, relatively poorer socioeconomic status, relatively poorer access to basic health services, relatively more child deliveries at home, and low level of education. The study showed that 269 of the 5, 066 children in the study died before celebrating their fifth birthday (5.31%). At the 5% level of significance, the survival of under-five children is significantly influenced by 2 of the 11 predictor variables found to be significantly associated in the univariate analysis and therefore included in the logistic regression analysis. These 2 predictor variables were: place of delivery of child [OR=0.97; P=0.000; CI = (0.96, 0.98)], and use of modern contraceptives by the mother [OR=0.73; P=0.002; CI = (0.59, 0.89)]. The study found that not using modern contraceptives gives a lower chance on death of a child under 5 as well as delivering at home, in the absence of a trained birth attendant. These findings are unexpected and contrary to what was found in the univariate analysis. No real explanation can be given for these findings and it would be interesting to see if the same results are found with more recent data. In order for the South African National Department of Health to fulfil its United Nations Millennium Development Goals, rural mothers and their under-five children must be provided with improved health as well as socioeconomic services.

O presente estudo se baseou em levantamentos retrospectivos e prospectivos obtidos de bovinos abatidos no Frigorífico Bertin, em Lins-SP. No primeiro levantamento consultaram-se os registros do Serviço de Inspeção Federal de ocorrência de alterações hepáticas em 1.568.821 bovinos (85% machos e 15% fêmeas), proveniente de seis Estados (SP, MS, PR, GO, MT e MG) durante os anos de 2002 a 2006. Consideraram-se os animais abatidos no último trimestre de cada ano como terminados em confinamento, sendo os demais criados continuamente em regime extensivo. Os abscessos hepáticos (1,60%) foram a segunda mais freqüente alteração hepática após a teleangectasia (1,67%). A freqüência desses abscessos foi maior em bovinos confinados (2,54%) que nos criados extensivamente (1,28%) e em fêmeas (1,85%) que em machos (1,56%). O confinamento aumenta o fator de risco (FR) de surgimento de abscessos hepáticos na ordem de 2,01 vezes. Maior freqüência de abscessos foi registrada em bovinos oriundos do Paraná, em ambos os sistemas de terminação. No levantamento prospectivo foram acompanhados o abate de 1.617 bovinos nos meses de dezembro de 2007 (n=858) e outubro de 2008 (n=759). Os abscessos hepáticos foram registrados de acordo com a freqüência, tamanho, número e localização dos mesmos em 1.617 animais; a mucosa ruminal foi avaliada (n=1.397) quanto à presença de ruminite, sua classificação e área afetada; e os pulmões (n=759) examinados para a detecção de hepatização pulmonar nas diferentes regiões, lóbos e lóbulos pulmonares, assim como grau de acometimento nos lóbulos. Foram detectados abscessos hepáticos, ruminites e pulmões hepatizados em 3,29%, 11,88% e 8,30% dos animais, respectivamente. Os abscessos estiveram igualmente distribuídos em todas as quatro regiões hepáticas, e na maioria dos casos (78,26%) os mesmos eram de pequeno tamanho (< 2,5cm) e número (até dois/órgão). Foram encontrados quatro tipos de ruminites, sendo a mais freqüente a retração cicatricial (54,22%), seguido de retalhos aderentes (24,10%), vilosidades aderidas (13,25%) e ruminite erosiva (8,43%). Em 32,53% desses casos à área afetada do rúmen ultrapassava os 300cm2. Animais com ruminite apresentavam um altíssimo risco (FR=12,67x) de manifestar abscessos hepáticos e hepatização pulmonar (FR=5,8x), com destaque para a ruminite erosiva. A hepatização pulmonar foi mais freqüente na região ventral (71,4%) que dorsal (28,6%), nos lóbulos esquerdos (59,79%) que direitos (40,21%) e na maioria dos casos acometia apenas um lóbulo (53,97%) não atingindo a hepatização mais do que 50% deste (66,6%). Abscessos hepáticos ocorreram com maior freqüência quando concomitantemente um único lóbulo pulmonar era acometido (FR=3,0x) e este se apresentava com menos de 50% de seu parênquima hepatizado (FR=11,61x). / A retrospective and prospective survey was carried out in cattle slaughtered in a private abattoir in the State of Sao Paulo, Brazil. The first survey was based on the reports done by the Federal Inspection Service of the liver condemnations among 1,568,821 cattle (85% steers; 15% cows and heifers) from six different Brazilian states during 2002 and 2006. Feedlot cattle were mostly slaughtered in the last trimester of each year, while the cattle bred extensively were in the remaining months. The abscesses (1.60%) were the second highest cause of liver condemnation after telangiectasis (1.67%). The frequency of liver abscesses were higher in feedlot cattle (2.54%) than those bred extensively (1.28%), female (1.85%) than male (1.56%). Feedlot increased the outcome (odds ratio OD= 2.01x) of liver abscess. The highest frequency of liver abscess was detected in feedlot and extensively bred cattle from the Parana state. The prospective survey was carried out following the slaughtering of 1,617 cattle during the months of December 2007 (n=858) and October 2008 (n=759). The abscesses frequency, size, number and location in the liver were recorded in all animals; the rumen mucosa (n=1,397) was examined for the presence, type and size of ruminitis; the lungs (n=759) were also examined for detection of consolidation, evaluating the affected region, number of lobes and lesion score. The following frequencies were seen: liver abscess (3.29%), ruminitis (11.88%) and lung consolidation (8.30%). The abscesses were equally distributed in all hepatic regions; most abscesses (78.2%) were small (< 2.5cm) and present in low number (1-2/liver). Four different types of ruminitis were seen: scars (54.22%), adherent contents (21.10%), clumped villi (13.25%) and erosive ruminitis (8.43%). In many cases (32.53%) the ruminitis spread to an area larger than 300cm2. Cattle with ruminitis had a very high risk of contracting liver abscesses (OD=12.67x) and lung consolidation (OR= 5.8x), principally with erosive ruminitis. Lung consolidation was mostly seen in the ventral (71.4%) than dorsal areas (28.6%), in the left (59.79%) than right lobes (40.21%); in most cases a single lobe was affected (53.97%) and less than 50% of the lobe was consolidated (66.6%). Liver abscesses were commonly seen in cattle with a single lobe (OD=3.0x) and less than 50% of this lobe consolidated (OR=11.61x).

This research is motivated by a number of open questions in the behavioural finance literature. Firstly, if investors do not learn in a rational Bayesian manner but rather suffer from biases set out in the naïve reinforcement hypothesis, rationality assumptions in individual preference models may not hold. I use a unique longitudinal dataset comprising in excess of 1.5 million fixed-odds financial bets, where bettors perform identical, consecutive decisions which mimic financial choices made in a laboratory, but the use of their own funds departs from the artificiality of an experiment. I present evidence of unwarranted overconfidence generated by reinforcement learning in both real and simulated markets. Secondly, Kahneman and Tversky (1979) state that losses loom larger than gains. I examine whether the disposition to avoid losses is driving behaviour in the losing domain in the dataset and conclude that there is little evidence of loss aversion. I differentiate between betting on Financial Markets, in which agents may perceive an internal locus of control, and betting on the simulated market, where results are uncorrelated and in which the emotions of regret and disappointment may not loom as large. Finally, Odean (1998) provides evidence that investors readily realise paper gains by selling their winning stocks, yet hold on to their losing stocks too long. This loss aversion is consistent with Kahneman and Tversky (1979) prospect theory, however, how long would the investor hold on to a stock that is losing value on a day-to-day basis? Conversely, would an investor rush to sell a stock that has yielded positive returns in each month during the past year? I test the interaction between learning and loss aversion in a financial betting experiment in which two treatment groups are subjected to consecutive gains or losses.

Estudos que comprovem a superioridade de um fármaco em relação a outros já existentes no mercado são de grande interesse na prática clínica. Através deles a Agência Nacional de Vigilância Sanitária (ANVISA) concede registro a novos produtos, que podem curar mais rápido ou aumentar a probabilidade de cura dos pacientes, em comparação ao tratamento padrão. É de suma importância que os testes de hipóteses controlem a probabilidade do erro tipo I, ou seja, controlem a probabilidade de que um tratamento não superior seja aprovado para uso; e também atinja o poder de teste regulamentado com o menor número de indivíduos possível. Os testes de hipóteses existentes para esta finalidade ou desconsideram o tempo até que o evento de interesse ocorra (reação alérgica, efeito positivo, etc) ou são baseados no modelo de riscos proporcionais. No entanto, na prática, a hipótese de riscos proporcionais pode nem sempre ser satisfeita, como é o caso de ensaios cujos riscos dos diferentes grupos em estudo se igualam com o passar do tempo. Nesta situação, o modelo de chances proporcionais é mais adequado para o ajuste dos dados. Neste trabalho desenvolvemos e investigamos dois testes de hipóteses para ensaios clínicos de superioridade, baseados na comparação de curvas de sobrevivência sob a suposição de que os dados seguem o modelo de chances de sobrevivências proporcionais, um sem a incorporação da fração de cura e outro com esta incorporação. Vários estudos de simulação são conduzidos para analisar a capacidade de controle da probabilidade do erro tipo I e do valor do poder dos testes quando os dados satisfazem ou não a suposição do teste para diversos tamanhos amostrais e dois métodos de estimação das quantidades de interesse. Concluímos que a probabilidade do erro tipo I é subestimada quando os dados não satisfazem a suposição do teste e é controlada quando satisfazem, como esperado. De forma geral, concluímos que é imprescindível satisfazer as suposições dos testes de superioridade. / Studies that prove the superiority of a drug in relation to others already existing in the market are of great interest in clinical practice. Based on them the Brazilian National Agency of Sanitary Surveillance (ANVISA) grants superiority drugs registers which can cure faster or increase the probability of cure of patients, compared to standard treatment. It is of the utmost importance that hypothesis tests control the probability of type I error, that is, they control the probability that a non-superior treatment is approved for use; and also achieve the test power regulated with as few individuals as possible. Tests of hypotheses existing for this purpose or disregard the time until the event of interest occurrence (allergic reaction, positive effect, etc.) or are based on the proportional hazards model. However, in practice, the hypothesis of proportional hazards may not always be satisfied, as is the case of trials whose risks of the different study groups become equal over time. In this situation, the proportional odds survival model is more adequate for the adjustment of the data. In this work we developed and investigated two hypothesis tests for clinical trials of superiority, based on the comparison of survival curves under the assumption that the data follow the proportional survival odds model, one without the incorporation of cure fraction and another considering cure fraction. Several simulation studies are conducted to analyze the ability to control the probability of type I error and the value of the power of the tests when the data satisfy or not the assumption of the test for different sample sizes and two estimation methods of the quantities of interest. We conclude that the probability of type I error is underestimated when the data do not satisfy the assumption of the test and it is controlled when they satisfy, as expected. In general, we conclude that it is indispensable to satisfy the assumptions of superiority tests.

Occupational and environmental epidemiological studies often involve ordinal data, including antibody titer data, indicators of health perceptions, and certain psychometrics. Ideally, such data should be analyzed using approaches that exploit the ordinal nature of the scale, while making a minimum of assumptions. In this work, we first review and illustrate the analytical technique of ordinal logistic regression called the "proportional odds model". This model, which is based on a constrained ordinal model, is considered the most popular ordinal model. We use hypothetical data to illustrate a situation where the proportional odds model holds exactly, and we demonstrate through derivations and simulations how using this model has better statistical power than simple logistic regression. The section concludes with an example illustrating the use of the model in avian and swine influenza research. In the middle section of this work, we show how the proportional model assumption can be relaxed to a less restrictive model called the "trend odds model". We demonstrate how this model is related to latent logistic, normal, and exponential distributions. In particular, scale changes in these potential latent distributions are found to be consistent with the trend odds assumption, with the logistic and exponential distributions having odds that increase in a linear or nearly linear fashion. Actual data of antibody titer against avian and swine influenza among occupationally- exposed participants and non-exposed controls illustrate the fit and interpretation of the proportional odds model and the trend odds model. Finally, we show how to perform a multivariable analysis in which some of the variables meet the proportional model assumption and some meet the trend odds assumption. Likert-scaled data pertaining to violence among middle school students illustrate the fit and interpretation of the multivariable proportional-trend odds model. In conclusion, the proportional odds model provides superior power compared to models that employ arbitrary dichotomization of ordinal data. In addition, the added complexity of the trend odds model provides improved power over the proportional odds model when there are moderate to severe departures from proportionality. The increase in power is of great public health relevance in a time of increasingly scarce resources for occupational and environmental health research. The trend odds model indicates and tests the presence of a trend in odds, providing a new dimension to risk factors and disease etiology analyses. In addition to applications demonstrated in this work, other research areas in occupational and environmental health can benefit from the use of these methods. For example, worker fatigue is often self-reported using ordinal scales, and traumatic brain injury recovery is measured using recovery scores such as the Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS).

<p> Asthma is a multifactorial chronic disease that has shown a marked increase in prevalence over the past few decades, both in Canada and worldwide. Basic knowledge gaps remain about the pathways through which risk factors influence adult asthma. More adult women than men have asthma, and a growing body of research suggests that associations between certain risk factors and asthma may differ by sex. The aim of this thesis was to investigate the socioeconomic, environmental and personal correlates of asthma in men and women.</p> <p> Data for this thesis were obtained from a cross-sectional study conducted in 2003 in the rural Canadian town of Humboldt, Saskatchewan. The survey response rate was 71% of the resident target population, with 1177 females and 913 males aged 18 to 79 participating in the study. Researchers collected objective data on atopy (skin prick test), and body mass index. Exposures and history of physician-diagnosed asthma in the past year (current asthma) and during the participants lifetime (ever asthma) were self-reported. Multivariable logistic regression models adjusted for age, atopy, and parental asthma history were used to evaluate associations of correlates with asthma. The model building process was based on a conceptual framework of three categories: socioeconomic variables, home and work environment, and personal factors. </p> <p> The prevalence of asthma was higher in women than men (ever asthma: 10.2% of women versus 5.8% of men; current asthma: 6.2% of women versus 2.8% of men). The logistic regression models for ever asthma and current asthma showed several sex differences. The sequential addition of each category of socioeconomic, environmental, and personal variables contributed significantly to model fit in women, but not in men. Living in a mobile, attached or multiple-family home, household dampness, and overweight/obesity were strong risk factors for female asthma, while farm living, occupational grain dust exposure, and regular alcohol use emerged as protective factors. Male models revealed a strong significant association between household dampness and current asthma. A significant interaction between home type and age was found only in females. Women living in homes other than single-family detached dwellings were more likely to have asthma, an association that decreased in strength with increasing age. </p> <p> These results suggest that several risk factors for adult asthma may be sex-specific, therefore emphasizing the importance of considering sex as a potential effect modifier in future adult asthma epidemiology studies.</p>

This study deals with market reaction to public information. The sample studied concerns six different famous European football clubs that are regularly involved in European competitions. These clubs are AS Roma from the Italian championship Calcio Serie A, FC Porto from the Portuguese championship Super Liga, Ajax Amsterdam from the Dutch championship Holland Casino Eredivisie, Galatasaray and Besiktas Istanbul from the Turkish championship Super Lig, and Celtic Glasgow from the Scottish championship Premier League.               Palomino et al. (2009) is the main source of inspiration for this study. Most of the findings are in lines with their results. There are two main contributions in this research. Firstly, our sample is composed by clubs from 5 different European countries: Italy, Scotland, Turkey, Portugal and Netherlands. Secondly, the ten years period of the study includes the financial crisis period. The results obtained for the financial crisis period have contaminated most of our results, justifying the choice to focus mainly on the results of the period 2002-2012 without the 2007-2009 period, which is the period associated to the financial crisis.               This research is divided into four parts. We firstly find evidence that the release of public information during the on-season has more influence than the one of the off-season. Indeed, the abnormal volumes calculated during the on-season are greater than the abnormal volumes computed during the off season. Likewise, we observed similar results as for the volatility. Secondly, this study demonstrates that the games’ results have a positive or a negative impact on the shares’ clubs returns depending on the game outcome. Indeed, the abnormal returns’ results are negative for losses and positive for wins. Moreover, we demonstrate that the stock market absorbs negative events (e.g. defeats) faster than the positive events (e.g. victories). Thirdly, we found that the losses that occur at the end of the season have more impact in terms of magnitude on the abnormal returns. On the contrary, the investors do not seem to react differently regarding the wins. Then, we were unable to find relevant findings regarding the unexpected results’ impact on the clubs’ share price. Surprisingly, we found that there is a surprise effect concerning victories whereas there is no surprise effect regarding the defeats.               Most of the findings of the study prove that public information concerning game results does influence investors’ behavior and thus have a significant impact on the share price of the famous European clubs.