In this paper we investigate how well residents of the Andaman coast in Phang Nga province, Thailand, are prepared for earthquakes and tsunami. It is hypothesized that formal education can promote disaster preparedness because education enhances individual cognitive and learning skills, as well as access to information. A survey was conducted of 557 households in the areas that received tsunami warnings following the Indian Ocean earthquakes on 11 April 2012. Interviews were carried out during the period of numerous aftershocks, which put residents in the region on high alert. The respondents were asked what emergency preparedness measures they had taken following the 11 April earthquakes. Using the partial proportional odds model, the paper investigates determinants of personal disaster preparedness measured as the number of preparedness actions taken. Controlling for village effects, we find that formal education, measured at the individual, household, and community levels, has a positive relationship with taking preparedness measures. For the survey group without past disaster experience, the education level of household members is positively related to disaster preparedness. The findings also show that disaster-related training is most effective for individuals with high educational attainment. Furthermore, living in a community with a higher proportion of women who have at least a secondary education increases the likelihood of disaster preparedness. In conclusion, we found that formal education can increase disaster preparedness and reduce vulnerability to natural hazards.

No description available.

American black duck (Anas rubripes) populations declined throughout North America from 1950–1990, but the breeding population since has stabilized. However, limited information exists on black ducks in the Mississippi Flyway, where wintering populations continue to decline. I radiomarked 111 female black ducks at Tennessee National Wildlife Refuge (TNWR) in winters 2010–2012 to estimate winter survival and investigate patterns of habitat selection. Winter survival (83–85%) was greater than or comparable to previous estimates for black duck populations in North America. Interval survival increased 0.6% with a 100 g increase in body mass, but survival differed between years and waterfowl hunting seasons relative to body mass. Black ducks selected habitats on TNWR and emergent/scrub-shrub wetlands throughout winter regardless of hunting season or time of day. High winter survival rates and consistent use of TNWR suggest the refuge provides an important complex of habitats for black ducks wintering in Tennessee.

The introduction of airbags has not significantly reduced serious thoracic injury for belted occupants in frontal crashes. This thesis has investigated the effectiveness of airbags and the characteristics of residual thoracic organ injury incurred by belted occupants in vehicles equipped with airbags. This study was based on the injury outcome of over 28,000 belted front seat occupants involved in frontal collisions. Data for this analysis was extracted from National Automotive Sampling System / Crashworthiness Data System (NASS/CDS) case years 1993-2007. The use of odds ratios for comparing the effect of airbags on the occurrence of injury has shown that airbags do not significantly increase protection against head and chest injuries. Overall, the lower extremity and the upper extremity were shown to be adversely affected by airbags. The face was the only body region that was shown to benefit from the combination of seat belts and airbags as compared to seat belts alone. An investigation into the characteristics and distributions associated with thoracic organ injuries showed the heart and great vessels are the only thoracic organs that showed a significant reduction in the rate of injury with the inclusion of airbags. In vehicles with airbags, the thoracic organs are injured more frequently than the ribs. When occupants sustain thoracic organ injury, the delta-V of the crash for vehicles with and without airbags is not significantly different. The odds of serious injury to the lungs and spleen are higher for occupants in vehicles with airbags as compared to those in vehicles without airbags. Rib fracture was found to be a poor predictor of moderate to fatal thoracic organ injury. Only 31-61% of thoracic organ injuries occur with an associated rib fracture. / Master of Science

<p>Många berättar om de ekonomiska vinster de gjort på börsen under senaste åren, och hur lätt pengarna rullat in på deras konton. Med en liten inblick i finansmarknaden och genom att titta på A-ekonomi då och då så blir i stort sett alla aktieaffärer lyckade. Vi hör dock sällan någon berätta om folks dåliga aktieaffärer. Börsen verkar med andra ord vara en guldgruva för dem som investerar där. Med hjälp av dyra aktierekommendationer kan man göra ännu större vinster enligt en rad olika fondkommissionär. Betting är en trend som aldrig tycks ta slut. Även där påpekar spelbolagen hur lätt det är att ta hem vinster, bara man har lite kunskap blir man en vinnare. Och vem vill inte bli det?</p><p>Syftet med denna uppsats är att reda ut nämnda påstående. Är det så lätt som visa försöker påvisa att öka sina likvida medel med hjälp av en smärre aktiekunskap? Denna studie försöker visa hur det egentligen ligger till i denna fråga. Vem vinner när kunskap ställs mot slump i spel- och aktievärlden?</p><p>I denna uppsats vill vi undersöka likheterna av slumpens betydelse vid kortsiktiga placeringar i aktier och spel på multibet. Med hjälp av Random Walk-teorin vill vi se om det finns likheter mellan att köpa aktier på börsen och att spela på multibet.</p><p>För att få en bredare kunskap inom detta ämne så har vi byggt upp en teoridel i denna uppsats som tar upp elementära och relevanta grundstenar inom dessa ämnen. Det dyker upp en rad olika frågetecken under resans gång, men dessa försöker vi besvara så gott det går ännu längre fram i uppsatsen.</p><p>De slutsatser vi kommit fram till med hjälp av vår undersökning är att slumpen har en stor betydelse på aktie- respektive spelmarknaden. Men däremot tror vi inte att den tekniska och fundamentala analysen ska förkastas, den kan i viss mån vara till hjälp.</p>

Effects of drugs are in clinical trials often measured on categorical scales. These measurements are increasingly being analyzed using mixed-effects logistic regression. However, the experience with such analyzes is limited and only a few models are used. The aim of this thesis was to investigate the performance and improve the use of models and methods for mixed-effects categorical data analysis. The Laplacian method was shown to produce biased parameter estimates if (i) the data variability is large or (ii) the distribution of the responses is skewed. Two solutions are suggested; the Gaussian quadrature method and the back-step method. Two assumptions made with the proportional odds model have also been investigated. The assumption with proportional odds for all categories was shown to be unsuitable for analysis of data arising from a ranking scale of effects with several underlying causes. An alternative model, the differential odds model, was developed and shown to be an improvement, in regard to statistical significance as well as predictive performance, over the proportional odds model for such data. The appropriateness of the likelihood ratio test was investigated for an analysis where dependence between observations is ignored, i.e. performing the analysis using the proportional odds model. The type I error was found to be affected; thus assessing the actual critical value is prudent in order to verify the statistical significance level. An alternative approach is to use a Markov model, in which dependence between observations is incorporated. In the case of polychotomous data such model may involve considerable complexity and thus, a strategy for the reduction of the time-consuming model building with the Markov model and sleep data is presented. This thesis will hopefully contribute to a more confident use of models for categorical data analysis within the area of pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic modelling in the future.

Många berättar om de ekonomiska vinster de gjort på börsen under senaste åren, och hur lätt pengarna rullat in på deras konton. Med en liten inblick i finansmarknaden och genom att titta på A-ekonomi då och då så blir i stort sett alla aktieaffärer lyckade. Vi hör dock sällan någon berätta om folks dåliga aktieaffärer. Börsen verkar med andra ord vara en guldgruva för dem som investerar där. Med hjälp av dyra aktierekommendationer kan man göra ännu större vinster enligt en rad olika fondkommissionär. Betting är en trend som aldrig tycks ta slut. Även där påpekar spelbolagen hur lätt det är att ta hem vinster, bara man har lite kunskap blir man en vinnare. Och vem vill inte bli det? Syftet med denna uppsats är att reda ut nämnda påstående. Är det så lätt som visa försöker påvisa att öka sina likvida medel med hjälp av en smärre aktiekunskap? Denna studie försöker visa hur det egentligen ligger till i denna fråga. Vem vinner när kunskap ställs mot slump i spel- och aktievärlden? I denna uppsats vill vi undersöka likheterna av slumpens betydelse vid kortsiktiga placeringar i aktier och spel på multibet. Med hjälp av Random Walk-teorin vill vi se om det finns likheter mellan att köpa aktier på börsen och att spela på multibet. För att få en bredare kunskap inom detta ämne så har vi byggt upp en teoridel i denna uppsats som tar upp elementära och relevanta grundstenar inom dessa ämnen. Det dyker upp en rad olika frågetecken under resans gång, men dessa försöker vi besvara så gott det går ännu längre fram i uppsatsen. De slutsatser vi kommit fram till med hjälp av vår undersökning är att slumpen har en stor betydelse på aktie- respektive spelmarknaden. Men däremot tror vi inte att den tekniska och fundamentala analysen ska förkastas, den kan i viss mån vara till hjälp.

The betting market in the Czech Republic is currently moving 10 companies that year, which annually divided among themselves more like 15 billion. One of them is the Startip, young and still growing betting agency. Target of this masters thesis is helping the company Startip to increase its market share, increase the quality of their products and to propose a summary of improvements in accordance with the requirements and the proposals formulated by betters in research made in collection of 224 respondents.

Made available in DSpace on 2015-03-26T13:32:17Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 texto completo.pdf: 764829 bytes, checksum: 8dbd03463c4800428f75900ca1340eb0 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-07-23 / The use of logistic regression modeling as a tool for modeling statistical probability of an event as a function of one or more independents variables, has grown among researchers in several areas, including Phytopathology. At about the dichotomous logistic regression in which the dependent variable is the type binary or dummy, is the extensive number of studies in the literature that discuss the modeling assumptions and the interpretation of the analyzes, as well as alternatives for implementation in statistical packages. However, when the variable response requires the use three or more categories, the number of publications is scarce. This is not only due to the scarcity of relevant publications on the subject, but also the inherent difficulty of coverage on the subject. In this paper we address the applicability of the model polytomous ordinal logistic regression, as well as differences between the proportional odds models, nonproportional and partial proportional odds. For this, we analyzed data from an experiment in which we evaluated the potential antagonistic fungus Clonostachys rosea in biocontrol of the disease called "gray mold", caused by Botrytis cinerea in strawberry and tomato. The partial proportional odds models and nonproportional were adjusted and compared, since the proportionality test score accused rejection of the proportional odds assumption. The estimates of the model coefficients as well as the odds ratios were interpreted in practical terms for Phytopathology. The polytomous ordinal logistic regression is introduced as an important statistical tool for predicting values, showing the potential of C. rosea in becoming a commercial product to be developed and used in the biological control of the disease, because the application of C. rosea was as or more effective than the use of fungicides in the control of gray mold. / O uso da regressão logística como uma ferramenta estatística para modelar a probabilidade de um evento em função de uma ou mais variáveis explicativas, tem crescido entre pesquisadores em várias áreas, inclusive na Fitopatologia. À respeito da regressão logística dicotômica, na qual a variável resposta é do tipo binária ou dummy, é extenso o número de trabalhos na literatura que abordam a modelagem, as pressuposições e a interpretação das análises, bem como alternativas de implementação em pacotes estatísticos. No entanto, quando a variável resposta requer que se utilize três ou mais categorias, o número de publicações é escasso. Isso devido não somente à escassez de publicações relevantes sobre o assunto, mas também à inerente dificuldade de abrangência sobre o tema. No presente trabalho aborda-se a aplicabilidade do modelo de regressão logística politômica ordinal, bem como as diferenças entre os modelos de chances proporcionais, chances proporcionais parciais e chances não proporcionais. Para isso, foram analisados dados de um experimento em que se avaliou o potencial do fungo antagonista Clonostachys rosea no biocontrole da doença denominada mofo cinzento , causada por Botrytis cinerea em morangueiro e tomateiro. Os modelos de chances proporcionais parciais e não proporcionais foram ajustados e comparados, uma vez que o teste score de proporcionalidade acusou rejeição da pressuposição de chances proporcionais. As estimativas dos coeficientes dos modelos bem como das razões de chances foram interpretadas em termos práticos para a Fitopatologia. A regressão logística politômica ordinal se apresentou como uma importante ferramenta estatística para predição de valores, mostrando o potencial do C. rosea em se tornar um produto comercial a ser desenvolvido e usado no controle biológico da doença, pois a aplicação de C. rosea foi tão ou mais eficiente do que a utilização de fungicidas no controle do mofo cinzento.

Submitted by Luciana Ferreira (lucgeral@gmail.com) on 2014-11-19T14:09:47Z No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Fabiana Carmo Approbato - 2012.pdf: 1717961 bytes, checksum: a9307564863c1765301f00c5f05b6d5f (MD5) license_rdf: 23748 bytes, checksum: b92763cfc0af52c7c868455edfaf3266 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Luciana Ferreira (lucgeral@gmail.com) on 2014-11-20T14:28:48Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Fabiana Carmo Approbato - 2012.pdf: 1717961 bytes, checksum: a9307564863c1765301f00c5f05b6d5f (MD5) license_rdf: 23748 bytes, checksum: b92763cfc0af52c7c868455edfaf3266 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2014-11-20T14:28:48Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Fabiana Carmo Approbato - 2012.pdf: 1717961 bytes, checksum: a9307564863c1765301f00c5f05b6d5f (MD5) license_rdf: 23748 bytes, checksum: b92763cfc0af52c7c868455edfaf3266 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-04-04 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / The Chlamydia trachomatis is a common factor of sexually transmitted diseases. If not treated it can induce tubal obstruction, ectopic pregnancy and infertility. In adolescent women, the prevalence can reach 30%. When look for infertility treatment, the women are at older age, so they are at a different prevalence of Chlamydia. Objectives: To evaluate the prevalence of Chlamydia trachomatis by PCR, enzyme immunoassay or indirect immuno fluorescence at infertile patients. Methods: Design: Prevalence study. Diagnoses Test. Setting: Reproductive Laboratory (LABREP) - HC / UFG and Mater Clinic of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Goiânia, Brazil. Patients: One hundred and twenty patients attended from 2011 to 2012, from 20 to 48 years old. Main Outcome Measures: Age frequency histogram, exposition to pregnancy time, Chlamydia prevalence, Odds ratio for tubal obstruction, ectopic pregnancy and others STDs (Sexually Transmitted Diseases). It was calculate the age histogram frequency, and pregnancy exposition time. We used Chi Square statistical for Odds risk to tubal obstruction for serum positive patients; the Odds risk to ectopic pregnancy for serum positive patients and Odds risk to others STDs for serum positive patients. The rejection p was 5 % (p = 0.05). The Statistical Software used was BioEstat® and excel®. The study was submitted and approved by ethics committee of Clinical Hospital of Federal University of Goias State, Brazil. Results: The patients average age was 33.2 years, above of adolescent age prevalence, when chlamydia is frequently found. The average of exposition to pregnancy was 48.6 months. The PCR Chlamydia detection was less than 1 % (0.83 %). The Chlamydia PCR prevalence for serum positive was 2.4 % (one patient). We did not found Positive PCR between serum negative patients. The Odds to tubal obstruction for serum positive patients was 2.5. This was statistically significant. The Odds Ratio to ectopic pregnancy for serum positive patients was 1.31. This was not statistically significant. The Odds Ratio to others STDs for serum positive patients was 4.1 (p = 0.024). The Odds Ratio to ectopic pregnancy for tubal obstruction was 19.1. This was highly significant (p = 0.001). The NNT was 42. Conclusions: We conclude that C. trachomatis has a very low frequency at this population ( < 1 %), but heavy sequels of infection stays. The average age of the infertile patients was 33.2 years, above of the age mean of adolescents. We found association of positive serology screening and statistically significant risk for tubal obstruction, ectopic pregnancy and to others STDs. / A Chlamydia trachomatis é fator etiológico comum de doenças sexualmente transmissíveis. Quando não tratada pode provocar sequelas como obstrução tubária, gravidez ectópica e infertilidade. Entre mulheres adolescentes, a taxa de prevalência pode chegar a 30%. Por outro lado, nas mulheres que procuram tratamento para infertilidade a faixa etária é maior, e a prevalência diferente. Objetivos: Avaliar a prevalência de Chlamydia trachomatis pela técnica de PCR, por enzimaimunoensaio ou imunofluorescência indireta em pacientes com esterilidade feminina. Métodos: Desenho: Estudo de prevalência. Teste diagnóstico. Local: Laboratório de Reprodução Humana (LABREP) - HC / UFG e Mater Clínica de Ginecologia e Obstetrícia, Goiânia. Pacientes: Foram estudadas 120 pacientes atendidas entre 2011 a 2012 com idade entre 20 e 48 anos. Principais resultados medidos: Faixa etária, tempo de exposição à gravidez, prevalência da clamídia, risco de Odds para obstrução tubária, gravidez ectópica e outras DSTs. Foram calculados os histogramas de frequência para idade e tempo de exposição. Foi utilizada a estatística de Qui quadrado para cálculo do risco de Odds de obstrução tubária entre as pacientes soro positivas; o risco de Odds de gravidez ectópica em pacientes soro positivas e o risco de Odds das pacientes soropositivas ter outras DSTs. O nível de significância escolhido foi 5 % (p = 0,05). O programa utilizado foi o BioEstat® e a planilha do Excel®. O projeto foi submetido e aprovado pelo Comitê de Ética do Hospital das Clínicas na Universidade Federal de Goiás. Resultados: A média de idade das pacientes foi 33,2 anos, acima da faixa de prevalência nas adolescentes, quando a presença de clamídia é elevada. A média de tempo de exposição (tempo tentativa de gravidez) foi de 48,6 meses. A prevalência de infecção detectada pelo exame de PCR foi menor do que 1 % (0,83 %). A prevalência da infecção por clamídia pelo exame de PCR entre as pacientes soro positivas foi de 2,4 % (uma paciente). Não encontramos PCR positivo entre as soro negativas. O risco de Odds entre as pacientes soro positivas para obstrução tubária foi de 2,5. Este valor foi estatisticamente significativo. O risco de Odds entre as pacientes soro positivas para apresentar gravidez ectópica foi de 1,31. Este valor não atingiu nível estatístico significativo. O risco de Odds entre as pacientes soro positivas foi de 4,1 para apresentar outras DSTs. Este valor foi estatisticamente significativo. O risco de Odds entre as pacientes com obstrução tubária para apresentar gravidez ectópica foi de 19,1. Este valor atingiu nível estatístico significativo (p = 0,001). Encontramos um NNT de 42 neste trabalho. Conclusões: Neste trabalho, a prevalência da clamídia detectada por PCR foi menor do que 1 % permanecendo as sequelas graves da infecção. Encontramos associação entre a sorologia positiva para Chlamydia trachomatis e obstrução tubária, gravidez ectópica e outras DSTs neste estudo. A média de idade das pacientes foi 33,2 anos, acima da faixa de prevalência nas adolescentes, quando a presença de clamídia é elevada.