While numerous studies have investigated the impact of oil prices on the stock market, Chapter 2 is the first to examine the association between corporate bond yields and oil returns. We examine the association between oil-returns and corporate bond yields of four major U.S. industrial and financial sectors (including thirteen sub-sectors). Chapter 3 examines the reaction of stock markets in the U.K. and the Netherlands to a major composite event in the oil industry – the merger of the Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA) and the BG Group (BRGYY) on April 8, 2015, and the subsequent discovery of oil in southern England on April 9. We employ an exponential autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic (EGARCH (1, 1)) framework in both Chapters, which allows for asymmetry of the effects between positive and negative external shocks including oil return shocks, shows the effects on both the yields/stock returns and their volatilities, and permits the persistence of the shocks to be measured. Three main results are obtained in Chapter 2. First, oil returns are significantly associated with the yield levels of corporate bonds issued in ten out of the thirteen sub-sectors considered within the oil-substitute, oil-related, oil-user, and financial services sectors. The three exceptions are the Petroleum Refinery, Building, and Chemical sub-sectors. Second, the return volatilities of corporate bonds issued in the Plastic & Rubber sub-sector demonstrate asymmetric responses to positive and negative shocks. To elaborate, negative shocks lead to lower volatility in the Plastic & Rubber sub-sector than positive shocks of the same magnitude. Third, the half-life, or the time it takes for the volatility of the portfolio of bonds in the Industrial Machinery sub-sector to move halfway back to its conditional mean after a shock is introduced, is 8.6 months. For bonds in all other sub-sectors, the half-life is less than 2.5 months. We obtain several results in Chapter 3. First, the composite event of merger and oil discovery generated significant abnormal returns in six out of the thirteen sub-sectors considered in the U.K. and three out of ten sub-sectors in the Netherlands. The remaining seven sub-sectors in the U.K. and the other seven sub-sectors in the Netherlands show no sensitivity in returns to the shock. Second, there is evidence of some information leakage about the composite event as demonstrated in the significant abnormal returns for Coal, Oil & Gas Extraction, Depository Institute, Chemical and Plastic & Rubber sub-sectors in U.K. and Coal, Depository Institute and Air Transportation sub-sectors in the Netherlands up to three days before the announcement of the composite event. Third, the behavioral patterns of four of the thirteen sub-sectors considered in the U.K. and four of the ten sub-sectors considered in the Netherlands demonstrate asymmetry in response to external shocks to their respective returns. These results have three main implications. First, investors holding bonds issued by the two sub-sectors with asymmetric oil shock effects need to add bonds from oil-related and oil-substitute sectors to lower the volatility of their bond portfolio because the latter do not exhibit asymmetry. Second, considering the overall finding of sensitivity to oil price changes, institutional investors need to examine the sensitivity of their bond portfolios to oil return changes and to guard against excessive risk. Similarly, corporations should monitor oil price variations and hedge the volatility risk accordingly. Finally, stock investors in the U.K. and the Netherlands might benefit from monitoring the key events that may affect the oil supply and oil prices, and acting accordingly. / Economics

Yes / This paper introduces a novel framework of partial connectedness measures to investigate contagion dynamics between different types of oil price shocks and exchange rates. Oil price shocks are persistent net transmitters of shocks within the network. It is found that the oil shock net spillovers made up most of the net connectedness values in most countries during the pre-COVID-19 period. Both oil exporters and oil importers, without any exception, were all net receivers of shocks. However, during the COVID-19 era, there were significant differences within the groups of countries. It is also observed that the oil-risk shock transmits to the other two types of oil shocks in the pre-COVID-19 and during the COVID-19 periods. The results may have potential implications for traders. / David Gabauer would like to acknowledge that this research has been partly funded by BMK, BMDW, Austria and the Province of Upper Austria in the frame of the COMET Programme managed by FFG, Austria. / The full-text of this article will be released for public view at the end of the publisher embargo on 23 Sep 2024.

This study aims to analyse the precrisis period on the oil markets with a primary objective of assessing the role of speculation in the commodity's price development and its volatility. First it depicts the rapidly increasing speculative activity on the futures market together with the parallel oil price surge. The speculation is initially proxied by non-commercial traders' positions and subsequently quantified by Working's T-index. The paper then uses speculative traders' positions and both spot and futures prices to test for Granger causality within the framework of VAR models. For the sake of consistency it also evaluates causal links between speculation and inventories level. Further the study investigates the speculation impact on volatility of oil prices by employing various approaches in volatility quantification including GARCH models. Contrary to expectations we find that the speculatio's impact on both prices and their volatility is rather insignificant. In the last chapter we therefore seek for an explanation of the oil price developments by examining the market fundamentals. The interaction of supply and demand finally gives substantial evidence for understanding the price developments in the precrisis period.

This thesis consists of four essays that study the effect of demand and supply shocks (namely exchange rate shocks, policy shocks and oil price shocks) on the German automobile industry using time series analysis techniques; i.a. intervention analysis, (time-varying) VAR models, state space modeling and Kalman filtering. Chapter 2 investigates the degree of (EUR/USD) exchange rate susceptibility of the German automobile industry (and mechanical engineering industry). It is shown that – in contrast to well-known warnings by business representatives and politicians alike – an appreciation of the Euro does not necessarily cause German vehicle producing companies “pain” in the sense of an aggravated business climate (although the (quantity) effects on exports are as predicted by theory). Chapter 3 first of all deals with the effect of the global economic crisis on the German manufacturing sector in general and the German automobile industry in particular. Even more important, the influence of the scrapping scheme, that was introduced as part of the “Konjunkturpaket II” in 2009, is researched. Chapter 4 focusses on the role of (systematic) monetary policy as well as the automobile industry in the transmission of oil price shocks to the economy. Chapter 5 extends the results of chapter 4 by examining carefully the role of fuel-efficiency in explaining the different degrees of sensitivity of the vehicle industries in Germany, Japan and the US with regard to oil price shocks.

The education system in Oman underwent tremendous development during the past four decades, however, the national economy dependency on oil threatens the sustainability of its education funding. This study aims to explore the relationship between education funding and oil price fluctuations in Qatar, U.A.E., and Oman from 1975 to 2015. Moreover, it aims to suggest new economic alternatives to diversify the education funding sources in Oman. This quantitative study, under the framework of Human Capital Theory, utilized descriptive and associational approaches to study the association between oil prices and education expenditures in the three countries. Multiple regression analyses showed that oil prices significantly predicted the government expenditure on education in Oman and Qatar with (β = -0.40, p = 0.013) and (β = 2.47, p = 0.02) respectively, while it was not significant in predicting the government expenditure on education (β = 0.36, p = 0.40) in the U.A.E. This study highlighted how Qatar and U.A.E were successful in moving away from oil dependency. The researcher recommended that the Omani government must encourage the inflow of direct foreign investment into its education field, like establishment of new education hubs, educational cities, and opening new branches for some of the leading educational institutions from around the world. The researcher plans to conduct future qualitative research to enrich knowledge in this area.

Os combustíveis fósseis, dentre eles o petróleo, são e continuarão sendo durante mais algumas décadas a principal fonte energética para a produção industrial, transporte, petroquímica e mesmo para o uso doméstico. Dentre suas características principais podemos citar o fato do petróleo ser um recurso natural exaurível, além de apresentar uma distribuição geológica bastante desigual, gerando diversos conflitos geopolíticos. Sua exploração sustenta-se em uma estrutura de mercado imperfeita, onde diversos players manipulam seus preços, objetivando maiores lucros, sem se preocupar com um desenvolvimento sustentável. Dada à importância do petróleo, se observa que sua precificação tem diversos impactos na atividade econômica. Busca-se nesse trabalho entender as relações existentes entre a indústria petrolífera e a dinâmica capitalista, especificadamente os impactos do preço internacional do petróleo na atividade econômica, nacional e internacional. / The fossil fuels, among them the petroleum, are and will remain during some decades more the main energy source for the industrial production, transport, petroquimic sector and even for the domestic use. Among your main characteristics we can mention the fact that petroleum is exhaustible resources, besides presenting an unequal geological distribution, generating several geopolitics conflicts. Your exploration is sustained in an imperfect market structure, where several players manipulate your prices, aiming at larger profits, without worrying with a maintainable development. Given the importance of petroleum, it is observed that your price has several impacts in the economical activity. In that work, is looked for understand the existent relationships between oil industry and economic dynamics, especially the impacts of the international oil price in Brazilian and world economical activity.

Orientador: Prof. Dr. Sinclair Mallet Guy Guerra / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Federal do ABC, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Energia, 2014. / A perspectiva de que o petróleo pode ser o caminho para levar o Brasil ao patamar de desenvolvimento tão sonhado pelos brasileiros pode estar próxima de acontecer. Sem sombra de dúvida, as novas reservas descobertas já colocam o Brasil em outro patamar no mapa geopolítico do petróleo. A camada pré-sal é uma faixa rochosa que se estende por aproximadamente 800 km entre os estados do Espírito Santo e Santa Catarina, a cerca de 300 km da costa, possui de seis a sete mil metros de profundidade e com petróleo e gás abaixo de la. A grandeza dessa descoberta pode colocar o Brasil no cenário nacional e internacional como grande produtor e possível exportador do óleo. Além disso, permitirá usá-lo como matéria-prima de seus inúmeros derivados e subprodutos. No tocante à renda a ser gerada com sua exploração as expectativas são imensas, mesmo com as constantes variações do preço internacional do petróleo. Considerando este um produto essencial e sem substituto próximo, seus elevados preços, assim como a demanda crescente, seria possível afirmar que países detentores de reservas teriam teoricamente enriquecimento rápido e contínuo. Porém, os fatos históricos têm apontado situações diferentes entre países que possuem reservas e exportam. A indústria brasileira do petróleo é bastante jovem comparada com o resto do mundo, mas nem por isso menos importante e eficiente. Com tantas possibilidades em vista, pesquisadores passaram a buscar respostas e traçar cenários do que poderá acontecer ao Brasil, na hipótese de o país se tornar um grande exportador de petróleo. Nesse sentido, nosso governo levou a pauta a um novo marco regulatório, que visa manter maior proteção do estado em relação ao Pré-Sal, haja vista que, desde os anos 90, quando foi aberto seu capital para o setor privado, a produção nacional ficou em parte no poder de grandes companhias que não têm por objetivo canalizar a renda do petróleo em prol da economia brasileira. Atualmente há muitas pesquisas que visam responder questionamentos advindos do Pré-Sal, como exemplo, quais serão os fatores econômicos determinantes e impactos dos mesmos com a exploração do Pré-Sal na economia brasileira? Em realidade não se coloca esse questionamento como um problema, mas sim a força das questões levantadas. A metodologia utilizada neste trabalho é composta por pesquisa bibliográfica e análise de dados com utilização de modelo dos recursos naturais não renováveis (RNNR) para otimizar variáveis que dão origem aos fatores de impulso para a economia brasileira. Os resultados obtidos apontam um preço estimado próximo do preço internacional do petróleo. Também os investimentos, poupança, capital humano e comércio externo serão fatores de impacto para o crescimento e desenvolvimento sócio-econômico do país. / A perspectiva de que o petróleo pode ser o caminho para levar o Brasil ao patamar de desenvolvimento tão sonhado pelos brasileiros pode estar próxima de acontecer. Sem sombra de dúvida, as novas reservas descobertas já colocam o Brasil em outro patamar no mapa geopolítico do petróleo. A camada pré-sal é uma faixa rochosa que se estende por aproximadamente 800 km entre os estados do Espírito Santo e Santa Catarina, a cerca de 300 km da costa, possui de seis a sete mil metros de profundidade e com petróleo e gás abaixo de la. A grandeza dessa descoberta pode colocar o Brasil no cenário nacional e internacional como grande produtor e possível exportador do óleo. Além disso, permitirá usá-lo como matéria-prima de seus inúmeros derivados e subprodutos. No tocante à renda a ser gerada The prospect that oil may be the way to lead Brazil to the level of development as dreamed by Brazilians can be close to happening. Without a doubt, the new reserves discovered already put Brazil on another level in the geopolitical map of the oil. The pre-salt layer is a rocky track that stretches for about 800 km between the states of Espírito Santo and Santa Catarina and is approximately 300 km from the coast. This layer has six to seven thousand feet deep and below it are oil and gas. The magnitude of this discovery could put Brazil in the national and international scene as a major producer and possible oil exporter. It will also use it as raw material for their derivatives and by-products. Regarding the income that is generated with its exploration expectations are immense, even with the constant changes in international oil prices. Whereas oil is an essential product and no close substitute, their high prices as well as increasing demand, it could be argued that countries holding reserves would theoretically rapid and continuous enrichment. However, the historical facts have shown different situations between countries that have reserves and export. The Brazilian oil industry is quite young compared to the rest of the world, but no less important and efficient. With so many possibilities to view, researchers began to look for answers and plot scenarios of what may happen to Brazil, should the country becoming a major oil exporter. In this sense, the Brazilian government took the agenda for a new regulatory framework, which aims to maintain greater state protection in relation to the pre-salt, given that, since the 90s, when it opened its capital to the private sector, production National was in power in part of large companies which does not aim to channel oil revenues in favor of the Brazilian economy. Currently there are many studies aimed at answering questions from the pre-salt, so they wonder what will be the economic determinants and impacts of these factors with the pre-salt exploration in the Brazilian economy? Actually this question does not arise as a problem, but the force of the issues raised. The methodology used in this study consists of literature search and data analysis with the use of model of exhaustible natural resources (RNNR) to optimize variables that give rise to boost factors for the Brazilian economy. The results show an estimated price near the international price of oil. Like, investments, savings, human capital and foreign trade will impact for growth and economic and social development factors.

本文包含兩篇文章，分別探討國際市場公司改名對企業股價與借款成本的影響。從本文的實證分析結果得知，國際市場公司改名對公司股票價格與其貸款成本有截然不同的影響。 Cooper, Dimitrov and Rau (2001)與Cooper et al. (2005)發現當網際網路興盛時，不論公司業務主體是否與網際網路有關，於公司名稱加入與網路有關文字之公司其股價報酬上升且維持一段時間；然而，當網際網路衰弱時，將公司名稱刪除網路字樣之公司，其股價出現顯著異常報酬，使得股東財富增加。鑒於近年來國際石油價格急遽上升，之後又逢美國次級房貸風暴因而暴跌，國際石油價格的波動走勢提供本文第一篇文章之研究動機。本文第一篇文章的研究目的在於探討當國際石油價格持續上升時，國際市場公司是否傾向變更其公司名稱，將其公司名稱加入「石油」或「原油」等相關之文字，透過公司名稱的變更提高企業價值；而當國際石油價格急速下降時，國際市場公司是否反而傾向將其公司名稱刪除「石油」或「原油」等相關之文字，以防止股價下跌。此外，由於美國與加拿大地理位置與文化相近，過去文獻常將兩者作比較。顧此，本文進一步探討美國公司與加拿大公司更名對企業股價的影響是否有顯著地差異。 本文發現當國際石油價格上漲時，美國公司傾向將其公司名稱加入「石油」或「原油」等相關之文字且其股價報酬上升，企業價值增加。然而，當美國次級房貸風暴時期，投資人深恐石油產業將受美國次級房貸危機影響，因此變更公司名稱之公司其股價下跌。另外，本文發現由於近年來加拿大為世界主要石油輸出國之一，投資人對石油產業公司的了解度較佳，因此美國與加拿大公司更名對企業股價有不同的影響。 過去文獻主要以股東角度探討公司更名議題，本文第二篇文章主要從銀行貸款者的角度來探討公司更名的影響。本文認為公司更名提高貸款者與借款者之間的資訊不對稱，增加銀行貸款者評估借款者未來還款能力的不確定性。為了要降低不確定性帶來的財務風險，銀行貸款者傾向提高借款利息或增加要求抵押擔保品。本文發現在公司更名後，公司須負擔較高的借款成本、較多的抵押品擔保與合約限制。此外，公司更名後，願意加入聯合貸款的銀行數目降低。 這些實證結果支持本文的推論。在股票市場上，公司變更公司名稱對企業價值有顯著地影響，管理階層藉由變更公司名稱影響投資人對其的看法(investor sentiment)，進而提高股票價值。然而，在借貸市場上，公司變更名稱提高公司與貸款者間之資訊不對稱，公司更名須償付較高的借款成本和較多的抵押品擔保。本文的實證結果說明金融機構對公司治理具有監督和管理的重要角色。 / Two essays are comprised in this dissertation to examine the benefits and costs of corporate name changes. The empirical investigation on corporate name changes in stock market and loan market provide the entirely different insights on the effect of corporate name changes. With the recent oil price in surge and then crash, I have the opportunity to examine whether firms have the incentives to changes their names when oil price surge. In the first essay, I examine the wealth effect of corporate name changes involving oil-related terms. Following Cooper, Dimitrov and Rau (2001) and Cooper et al. (2005), I argue that firms tend to change their name by adding the words “oil” or “petroleum” to names when oil price in surge, while deleting the words “oil” or “petroleum” to names when oil price in a crash. I also compare the effect of corporate name changes between U.S. and Canadian stock market. Consistent with the prediction, I provide the evidence that there exists valuation effect of corporate name changes involving oil-related terms in U.S. stock market when the recent oil price surge. When financial crisis exploded U.S. stock market reacts significant negatively to corporate name changes. This is perhaps because investors expect economic difficulty caused by the financial crisis, which in turn, would hurt the oil industry and high oil price is not expected to be sustainable. On the contrary, relative to U.S. market, Canadian stock market has little reaction on the corporate name changes regardless of the type of name changes or market condition. This opposite results can be attributed to the different economic structure between U.S. and Canadian market. In the second essay, I focus on the effect of corporate name changes from the perspective of bank loan holders. I examine the cost of corporate name changes in the loan contracting. A corporate name changes creates information asymmetry and uncertainty about the future cash flow of a firms. To reduce the increase of credit risk, bank loan holders would attempt to enhance the efficient monitoring by tighter contracting terms and more concentrated lending structure. Consistent with this argument, the empirical results show that loan after name changes have significantly higher loan spread, higher probability of being secured, more general covenant restrictions and fewer lenders participate in a syndicated loan. Following Wu (2010), I categorize corporate name changes into different types of name changes and examine whether there is different effect among different types of name changes. I find that firms experiencing radical name changes are more likely to bear more financing costs. Lastly, I provide the evidence that firms pay higher borrowing costs when investors experience a significantly positive reaction from stock market through cosmetic name changes, which illustrate the importance of banks playing the role of monitoring and controlling borrowers.

Gold price hits record high more than ¢C1900 in 2011, so how to forecast gold price and whether the influence factor of gold price change over time become more interesting issues for people. The beginning of this paper tries to find out the reasonable gold price then cut the study period into 7 stages and examines the influence factor of gold price in each stage from 1972 to 2011. Finally, this research uses the recent influence factor to build a forecasting model and tests its performance. The empirical result has three parts. First, from the view of purchasing power at December 31, 1971, gold price is too high in the end of 2011. Secondly, influence factors of gold price will change over time. They usually alter with important economic events of the world. Thirdly, the forecasting model has good performance in both in-sample and out-of-sample backtesting, but if the influence factor had changed, the performance would be worse in out-of-sample backtesting.

Os combustíveis fósseis, dentre eles o petróleo, são e continuarão sendo durante mais algumas décadas a principal fonte energética para a produção industrial, transporte, petroquímica e mesmo para o uso doméstico. Dentre suas características principais podemos citar o fato do petróleo ser um recurso natural exaurível, além de apresentar uma distribuição geológica bastante desigual, gerando diversos conflitos geopolíticos. Sua exploração sustenta-se em uma estrutura de mercado imperfeita, onde diversos players manipulam seus preços, objetivando maiores lucros, sem se preocupar com um desenvolvimento sustentável. Dada à importância do petróleo, se observa que sua precificação tem diversos impactos na atividade econômica. Busca-se nesse trabalho entender as relações existentes entre a indústria petrolífera e a dinâmica capitalista, especificadamente os impactos do preço internacional do petróleo na atividade econômica, nacional e internacional. / The fossil fuels, among them the petroleum, are and will remain during some decades more the main energy source for the industrial production, transport, petroquimic sector and even for the domestic use. Among your main characteristics we can mention the fact that petroleum is exhaustible resources, besides presenting an unequal geological distribution, generating several geopolitics conflicts. Your exploration is sustained in an imperfect market structure, where several players manipulate your prices, aiming at larger profits, without worrying with a maintainable development. Given the importance of petroleum, it is observed that your price has several impacts in the economical activity. In that work, is looked for understand the existent relationships between oil industry and economic dynamics, especially the impacts of the international oil price in Brazilian and world economical activity.