This thesis consists of three essays on risk management in crude oil markets. In the first essay, the valuation of an oil sands project is studied using real options approach. Oil sands production consumes substantial amount of natural gas during extracting and upgrading. Natural gas prices are known to be stochastic and highly volatile which introduces a risk factor that needs to be taken into account. The essay studies the impact of this risk factor on the value of an oil sands project and its optimal operation. The essay takes into account the co-movement between crude oil and natural gas markets and, accordingly, proposes two models: one incorporates a long-run link between the two markets while the other has no such link. The valuation problem is solved using the Least Square Monte Carlo (LSMC) method proposed by Longsta ff and Schwartz (2001) for valuing American options. The valuation results show that incorporating a long-run relationship between the two markets is a very crucial decision in the value of the project and in its optimal operation. The essay shows that ignoring this long-run relationship makes the optimal policy sensitive to the dynamics of natural gas prices. On the other hand, incorporating this long-run relationship makes the dynamics of natural gas price process have a very low impact on valuation and the optimal operating policy. In the second essay, the relationship between the slope of the futures term structure, or the forward curve, and volatility in the crude oil market is investigated using a measure of the slope based on principal component analysis (PCA). The essay begins by reviewing the main theories of the relation between spot and futures prices and considering the implication of each theory on the relation between the slope of the forward curve and volatility. The diagonal VECH model of Bollerslev et al. (1988) was used to analyse the relationship between of the forward curve slope and the variances of the spot and futures prices and the covariance between them. The results show that there is a significant quadratic relationship and that exploiting this relation improves the hedging performance using futures contracts. The third essay attempts to model the spot price process of crude oil using the notion of convenience yield in a regime switching framework. Unlike the existing studies, which assume the convenience yield to have either a constant value or to have a stochastic behaviour with mean reversion to one equilibrium level, the model of this essay extends the Brennan and Schwartz (1985) model to allows for regime switching in the convenience yield along with the other parameters. In the essay, a closed form solution for the futures price is derived. The parameters are estimated using an extension to the Kalman filter proposed by Kim (1994). The regime switching one-factor model of this study does a reasonable job and the transitional probabilities play an important role in shaping the futures term structure implied by the model.

Despite the extent of a theoretical framework in financial market studies, a vast majority of the traders, investors and computer scientists have relied only on technical and timeseries data for predicting future prices. So far, the forecasting models have rarely incorporated macro-economic and market fundamentals successfully, especially with short-term predictions ranging less than a month. In this investigation on the predictability of certain financial markets, an attempt has been made to incorporate a un-exampled and encompassing set of parameters into an Artificial Neural Network prediction system. Experiments were carried out on three market instruments ??? namely currency exchange rates, share prices and oil prices. The choice of parameters for inclusion or exclusion, and the time frame adopted for the experimental sets were derived from the market literature. Good directional prediction accuracies were achieved for currency exchange rates and share prices with certain parameters as inputs, which consisted of predicting short-term movements based on past movements. These predictions were better than the results produced by a traditional least square prediction method. The trading strategy developed based on the predictions also achieved a higher percentage of winning trades. No significant predictions were observed for oil prices. These results open up questions in the microstructure of the markets and provide an insight into the inputs required for market forecasting in the corresponding time frame, for future investigation. The study concludes by advocating the use of trend based input parameters and suggests ways to improve neural network forecasting models.

Denna uppsats undersöker effekten av oljepriser på inflation i Tyskland under 2000-talet. Under denna tid har många viktiga makroekonomiska händelser ägt rum och oljepriser har fluktuerat. Tyskland har valts att undersökas eftersom det är en stor europeisk ekonomi som är beroende av energiimport. En multipel linjär regression baserad på den nya Keynesianska Phillipskurvan har konstruerats. Resultaten visar att oljepriser har en statistiskt signifikant effekt på inflation; 1% ökning av oljepriser resulterar i en inflationsökning om 0,011%. Resultatet visar en positiv relation som ligger i linje med det teoretiska ramverket, men effekten är relativt liten vilket tyder på att oljepriser har en begränsad effekt på inflation under 2000-talet jämfört med tidigare tidsperiod. / This essay examines the effects of oil prices on inflation in Germany during the twenty-first century. At this time, many important macroeconomic events have occurred and oil prices have fluctuated. Germany was chosen as it is a strong European economy dependent on energy imports. A multiple regression analysis based on the theory of the new Keynesian Phillips curve has been constructed. The results show that oil prices have a statistically significant effect on inflation; a 1% increase in oil prices results in an inflation increase of 0,011%. The result of this positive relationship is in accordance with the theory, but the effect is relatively small thus suggesting that oil prices are not the primary cause of inflation. Oil prices seem to have a more limited effect on inflation in the twenty-first century compared to earlier time periods.

This paper attempts to assess the impact of price fluctuations in oil resulting from worldwide oil supply shocks on the real returns of the U.S. stock market, specifically the S&P 500, during the period of 1986 to 2011. While much past research has found an inverse relationship to exist between simply oil price increases and stock market returns, not many studies have been conducted that focus on the effects of shifts in oil supply. The model utilized, a variation of that used by Hamilton (2008), determines that changes in oil prices arising from oil supply shocks one quarter prior (t-1) and one year prior (t-4) have an effect on real stock returns. However, an F-test assessing the joint impact of the explanatory variables is unable to reject the null hypothesis that the joint effects of changes in oil prices arising from supply shocks have zero effect on the returns of the stock market.

No description available.

Is GDP per capita one of the main drivers affecting demand for passenger air travelling? Based on the time series analysis conducted for North American and Middle Eastern region, we have not rejected hypothesis about positive impact of GDP per capita on demand for air travelling. The thesis also analyzes whether the effects observed are weaker for more developed and more saturated markets. The second hypothesis was rejected, as we have found that the effect of the GDP per capita was on average 10% stronger for the North American region than for the Middle Eastern region. Moreover, we have found that for both regions oil prices are the important driver of the passenger air travel demand.

The crude oil phenomenon has always been a big issue and the current situation does not prove different. Crude oil as a commodity is indisputably considered as one of the most utilized energy source as well as production input which enters into economic processes in the vast majority of countries over the world. The aim of this masters thesis is to provide a detailed description and analysis of the crude oil world market. Furthermore it not only gives a characteristics of the commodity and its energy use it also defines the market and its participants crude oil pricing crude oil trading and it also provides an analysis of the world oil demand as well as supply.The purpose of this masters thesis is among other to thoroughly analyze the crude oil prices development and introduce the contemporary trends present on the market. In the latter part of this thesis there will be a crude oil prices time series modelled and probable future price direction outlined. Moreover the thesis will reflect on the current oil prices drop with its possible effect on world economy.

Thesis (M.A. Commerce (Economics)) -- University of Limpopo, 2019 / South Africa had targeted the oil and gas sector for investment through the industrial action plan as a special economic zone. However, certain economic fundamentals might negate the anticipated sector financial development. This study investigate how economic risk exposure influence oil & gas sector stock market returns from 2007 to 2015 on a monthly basis. The four macroeconomic variables used to measure economic risk exposure are Brent crude oil prices, the USD/ZAR exchange rate, broad money supply and gold prices. The adopted techniques include the GARCH model to incorporate volatility, the Johansen cointegration and Granger causality techniques. The results of the study found that change in Brent crude oil prices and broad money supply had a positive and significant impact on changes in oil & gas sector stock returns. Changes in exchange rate and gold prices had a negative and significant impact on the sector returns. The long-run relationship established one cointegrating equation in the series. Only Brent crude oil prices indicated a bi-directional Granger causality on the sector returns. Based on the findings, it is recommended that government may use exchange rate as a policy tool to attract interest in the sector. Regarding money supply, the reserve bank should further preserve its effective regulatory infrastructure including the laws, regulations and standards towards the achievement and maintenance of a stable financial system. Portfolio managers, risk managers and investors should monitor the gold price to mitigate losses due to its strength as a safe haven asset.

The general objective has been to empirically analyze how Hotelling’s rule has predicted the crude oil price development over the last 100 years and if the rule can work as a framework to predict future resource prices. Hotelling’s rule has been perceived as both outdated and relevant, during the last decades. A general conclusion from previous research is that resource price-developments are more complex than Hotelling assumed. The analysis has been conducted through tests of variables like interest rates, time spans and extraction costs. The assumption of exponentially increasing resource prices has also been tested. The results obtained show no general support for the Hotelling-rule’s ability to predict future prices. Our results suggest that Hotelling’s rule predicts price paths best when a short time-span is considered. The lack of predictability is due to high volatility in resource prices, something Hotelling’s rule does not account for. / Det övergripande syftet med denna studie har varit att empiriskt analysera hur väl Hotellings-regel har förutspått utvecklingen av oljepriset under de senaste hundra åren och om regeln fungerar som ett bra ramverk för att kunna förutspå framtida resurspriser. Hotellings-regel har uppfattats som både föråldrad samt relevant under de senaste årtiondena. En generell slutsats från tidigare forskning är dock att utvecklingen av icke-förnybara resursers priser är mer komplex än vad Hotelling antog. Analysen har utförts genom tester av olika variabler som räntor, tidsperioder och utvinningskostnader. Antagandet om exponentiellt ökande resurspriser har också testats. De erhållna resultaten ger inget generellt stöd för Hotelling regeln som ett bra ramverk till att förutspå framtida resurspriser. Resultaten tyder dock på att Hotellings-regel förutspår framtida priser bäst när en kortare tidsperiod antas. Modellens avsaknad av förutsägbarhet är sannolikt på grund av volatilitet i resurspriser, något som Hotellings-regel inte tar fullt hänsyn till.

Submitted by Lorenzo Pieri (lpieri@ymail.com) on 2013-07-01T22:47:18Z No. of bitstreams: 1 EPGEFGV_Dissertacao_Pieri_Lorenzo_FINAL.pdf: 21467835 bytes, checksum: 660c8bb8775579959cc7d94bb71d0a0a (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Vitor Souza (vitor.souza@fgv.br) on 2013-07-11T17:43:27Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 EPGEFGV_Dissertacao_Pieri_Lorenzo_FINAL.pdf: 21467835 bytes, checksum: 660c8bb8775579959cc7d94bb71d0a0a (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-07-19T13:44:55Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 EPGEFGV_Dissertacao_Pieri_Lorenzo_FINAL.pdf: 21467835 bytes, checksum: 660c8bb8775579959cc7d94bb71d0a0a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-04-19 / Through an Error Correction Model this study explores possible asymmetries in the passthrough of the oil prices to gasoline and diesel prices in the US market and, mainly, analyzes if the trends reversals of those refined oil products demand at the above market affected the price transmission mechanism. Using monthly date from January 2001 to December 2012, the results for gasoline indicated that there was evidence of passthrough due to the demand shift. However, it is worth noting that this result occurred concurrently with the period of recovery in prices witnessed after the 2008 crisis. Regarding diesel, there is no evidence that there were changes in the passthrough. Finally, we found evidence of the WTI decline as an oil reference due to its devaluation from 2010. / Através de um Modelo de Correção de Erros este estudo explora possíveis assimetrias no passthrough dos preços de petróleos para os preços do diesel e da gasolina no mercado dos Estados Unidos, analisando, principalmente, se as inversões das tendências das demandas destes derivados afetaram o mecanismo de transmissão de preços. A partir de dados mensais de janeiro de 2001 a dezembro de 2012, para a gasolina foram encontrados indícios de que houve alterações do passthrough em decorrência da quebra da demanda. Porém, é válido destacar que tal resultado ocorreu concomitantemente ao período de recuperação de preços presenciada após a crise de 2008. Em relação ao diesel, não há indícios de que houve alterações no passthrough. Por fim, há evidências da redução do WTI como petróleo de referência em decorrência da sua desvalorização a partir de 2010.