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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
21

Distribuição espaço-temporal de Olivella minuta (LINK, 1807) (Mollusca, Gastropoda, Olividae) na praia de Barequeçaba, Litoral Norte do Estado de São Paulo / Spatial and temporal distribution of Olivella minuta (LINK, 1807) (Mollusca, Gastropoda, Olividae) Barequeçaba Beach, North Coast of São Paulo

Tardelli, Daniel Teixeira 27 September 2013 (has links)
Praias arenosas são caracterizadas por uma abundante macrofauna, composta por poliquetas, moluscos e crustáceos. Dentre os moluscos, os gastrópodes constituem um dos grupos mais conspícuos. Entretanto, as informações sobre esse grupo em praias são escassas e se referem principalmente à ocorrência em comunidades. O neogastropoda Olivella minuta é comum e abundante em praias do Litoral Norte de São Paulo. Porém, há importantes lacunas no conhecimento quanto à distribuição desta espécie. Diante desse cenário, o presente estudo visou analisar a distribuição espaço-temporal de Olivella minuta na praia de Barequeçaba, bem como os fatores ambientais relacionados a essa distribuição. Para análise da distribuição espacial de O. minuta ao longo do entre-marés da praia, amostras foram obtidas em outubro de 2009, a partir de doze estações perpendiculares à linha da água, compostas por três transectos com seis níveis cada. Os fatores abióticos (características do sedimento) e bióticos (descritores da macrofauna) que compõem cada estação também foram amostrados e relacionados com a distribuição da espécie. Os resultados revelaram que os indivíduos ocorreram em maior densidade na porção sul da praia, e nos ambientes mais úmidos, próximos a linha da água. O carbonato de cálcio e a matéria orgânica foram os fatores mais determinantes, contrastando com a hipótese de que há influência tanto dos fatores abióticos quanto dos bióticos em tal distribuição. Para análise de distribuição temporal de Olivella minuta no eixo vertical da praia, amostras foram obtidas mensalmente no entremarés, a partir de cinco transectos aleatórios estabelecidos perpendicularmente à linha da água, com nove unidades amostrais. Além disso, amostras foram obtidas trimestralmente, no entremarés e infralitoral, a partir de cinco transectos aleatórios, compostos por nove e seis níveis amostrais, respectivamente. Os resultados revelaram um padrão de distribuição da espécie no entremarés ao longo do tempo, e confirmaram a hipótese de que há uma distribuição de O. minuta de acordo com o tamanho do indivíduos no eixo vertical da praia, com indivíduos menores ocorrendo apenas no infralitoral e migrando para o entremarés ao longo de sua ontogenia. Os avanços apresentados no presente estudo contribuem para o conhecimento sobre a ecologia de populações de praias arenosas, ao relacionar a distribuição de uma espécie da macrofauna com os fatores ambientais, e principalmente ao abranger o infralitoral nas amostragens, por tratar da distribuição de uma espécie cuja distribuição não é exclusiva do entremarés / Sandy beaches have typically abundant macrofauna, comprised of polychaetes, mollusks, and crustaceans. Among mollusks, gastropods comprise one of the most conspicuous groups. Nevertheless, data on this group for beaches are scarce and refer mainly to their occurrence in communities. The neogastropoda Olivella minuta is common and abundant on beaches along the Northern Coast of São Paulo. However, there are important gaps in the knowledge regarding the distribution of this species. Based on this scenario, the present study aims at analyzing the distribution of Olivella minuta in space and over time on Barequeçaba Beach, as well as the related environmental factors. To analyze the distribution of Olivella minuta along the intertidal zone of the beach, samples were obtained in October 2009 from twelve stations perpendicular to the waterline, comprised of three transects with six levels each. Abiotic (sediment characteristics) and biotic (macrofauna descriptors) factors that comprise each station were also sampled and linked to distribution. Results showed that there was higher density of individuals in the southern part of the beach, and in more humid environments, closer to the waterline. Calcium carbonate and organic matter were the most determining factors in the species\' distribution, as opposed to the hypothesis that both abiotic and biotic factors were influencing factors. To analyze the distribution of Olivella minuta over time in the vertical axis of the beach, samples were collected monthly in the intertidal zone, from five random transects set out perpendicularly to the waterline with nine sampling units. In addition, samples were also obtained quarterly with five random transects comprised of nine and six sampling levels in the intertidal zone and in the infralittoral zone, respectively. Results showed a distribution pattern for the species in the intertidal zone over time and confirm the hypothesis that O. minuta is distributed along the vertical axis of the beach according to the size of individuals, with smaller individuals occurring in the infralittoral and migrating to the intertidal zone throughout their ontogeny. Outcomes shown in the present study help improve the knowledge on population ecology of sandy beaches because they relate the distribution of a macrofauna species to environmental factors and mainly due to the fact that sampling covers also the infralittoral zone, since its distribution is not exclusive to the intertidal zone
22

Análise de dados longitudinais em experimentos com cana-de-açúcar / Analysis of longitudinal data in experiments with sugar of cane

Freitas, Edjane Gonçalves de 25 February 2008 (has links)
Nesse trabalho foi abordada a situação em que observações de produtividade da cana-de-açúcar (TCH) foram tomadas na mesma unidade experimental em diferentes condições de avalições (anos). Foram avaliados os perfis médios de resposta de 48 genótipos de cana-de-açúcar em dois experimentos: Experimento 1 e Experimento 2, durante três e cinco anos respectivamente, ambos com o delineamento de blocos ao acaso. Esse tipo de planejamento produz uma forma de relação entre as observações tomadas na mesma unidade experimental, portanto requer outras suposições, além das usuais, para que análise seja correta e os testes produzam resultados válidos. Para que as inferências sobre as médias de produtividade sejam válidas e seguras é necessário que o modelo da matriz de covariância dos dados seja apropriado. Diante disso, foram avalidos três alterantivas de análise para dados longitudinais (medidas repetidas no tempo ), sendo utilizados portanto, o modelo univariado, conforme o planejamento do tipo \"split-plot on time\", que impõe forte restrição quanto a matriz de variâncias-covariâncias; o modelo multivariado, que utiliza uma matriz de variâncias-covariâncias não-estruturada e o modelo mistos, que possibilita a seleção de uma matriz que melhor representa os dados. Contudo, verificou-se que não houve diferença entre os resultados dos testes para as diferentes metodologias. Porém, é interessante a continuidade do estudo em relação ao modelo misto, pois devido a sua flexibilidade e precisão é possível obter estimativas mais seguras dos componentes de variância e predizer os valores genotípicos, que por fim poderá proporcionar a predição de produção de uma futura colheita para um determinado genótipo. / This work has been dealt with situation in which observations of productivity of sugar of cane (TCH) were taken in the same unit experimental in different condition of assessments (years). The response profiles average of 48 genotypes of sugar of cane were evaluated in two experiments: Experiment 1 and Experiment 2, for three and five years respectively, both with the randomized complete block design. This type of planning produces a form of relationship between the observations made in the same unit experimental therefore requires other assumptions, in addition to the usual, so that analysis is correct and the test results valid. To that inferences on the means of productivity are valid and safe it is necessary that the model of covariance matrix of the data is appropriate. Therefore, were evaluated three alternatives for analysis of longitudinal data (repeated measures over time), the univariate model as the planning of the split-plot on time which imposes strong restrictions on variances - covariances matrix, the multivariate model, which uses a non-structured variances - covariances matrix and mixed model, which they are enable the selection of a matrix that best represents the data. However, it was found that there was no difference between the results of tests for the different methodologies. But it is interesting the continuity of the study in relation to mixed model, because due to its flexibility and accuracy will be possible to obtain more reliable estimates of the variance components and predict the genotypic values, which ultimately could provide a prediction of production of a future harvest for a given genotype.
23

Distribuição espaço-temporal de Olivella minuta (LINK, 1807) (Mollusca, Gastropoda, Olividae) na praia de Barequeçaba, Litoral Norte do Estado de São Paulo / Spatial and temporal distribution of Olivella minuta (LINK, 1807) (Mollusca, Gastropoda, Olividae) Barequeçaba Beach, North Coast of São Paulo

Daniel Teixeira Tardelli 27 September 2013 (has links)
Praias arenosas são caracterizadas por uma abundante macrofauna, composta por poliquetas, moluscos e crustáceos. Dentre os moluscos, os gastrópodes constituem um dos grupos mais conspícuos. Entretanto, as informações sobre esse grupo em praias são escassas e se referem principalmente à ocorrência em comunidades. O neogastropoda Olivella minuta é comum e abundante em praias do Litoral Norte de São Paulo. Porém, há importantes lacunas no conhecimento quanto à distribuição desta espécie. Diante desse cenário, o presente estudo visou analisar a distribuição espaço-temporal de Olivella minuta na praia de Barequeçaba, bem como os fatores ambientais relacionados a essa distribuição. Para análise da distribuição espacial de O. minuta ao longo do entre-marés da praia, amostras foram obtidas em outubro de 2009, a partir de doze estações perpendiculares à linha da água, compostas por três transectos com seis níveis cada. Os fatores abióticos (características do sedimento) e bióticos (descritores da macrofauna) que compõem cada estação também foram amostrados e relacionados com a distribuição da espécie. Os resultados revelaram que os indivíduos ocorreram em maior densidade na porção sul da praia, e nos ambientes mais úmidos, próximos a linha da água. O carbonato de cálcio e a matéria orgânica foram os fatores mais determinantes, contrastando com a hipótese de que há influência tanto dos fatores abióticos quanto dos bióticos em tal distribuição. Para análise de distribuição temporal de Olivella minuta no eixo vertical da praia, amostras foram obtidas mensalmente no entremarés, a partir de cinco transectos aleatórios estabelecidos perpendicularmente à linha da água, com nove unidades amostrais. Além disso, amostras foram obtidas trimestralmente, no entremarés e infralitoral, a partir de cinco transectos aleatórios, compostos por nove e seis níveis amostrais, respectivamente. Os resultados revelaram um padrão de distribuição da espécie no entremarés ao longo do tempo, e confirmaram a hipótese de que há uma distribuição de O. minuta de acordo com o tamanho do indivíduos no eixo vertical da praia, com indivíduos menores ocorrendo apenas no infralitoral e migrando para o entremarés ao longo de sua ontogenia. Os avanços apresentados no presente estudo contribuem para o conhecimento sobre a ecologia de populações de praias arenosas, ao relacionar a distribuição de uma espécie da macrofauna com os fatores ambientais, e principalmente ao abranger o infralitoral nas amostragens, por tratar da distribuição de uma espécie cuja distribuição não é exclusiva do entremarés / Sandy beaches have typically abundant macrofauna, comprised of polychaetes, mollusks, and crustaceans. Among mollusks, gastropods comprise one of the most conspicuous groups. Nevertheless, data on this group for beaches are scarce and refer mainly to their occurrence in communities. The neogastropoda Olivella minuta is common and abundant on beaches along the Northern Coast of São Paulo. However, there are important gaps in the knowledge regarding the distribution of this species. Based on this scenario, the present study aims at analyzing the distribution of Olivella minuta in space and over time on Barequeçaba Beach, as well as the related environmental factors. To analyze the distribution of Olivella minuta along the intertidal zone of the beach, samples were obtained in October 2009 from twelve stations perpendicular to the waterline, comprised of three transects with six levels each. Abiotic (sediment characteristics) and biotic (macrofauna descriptors) factors that comprise each station were also sampled and linked to distribution. Results showed that there was higher density of individuals in the southern part of the beach, and in more humid environments, closer to the waterline. Calcium carbonate and organic matter were the most determining factors in the species\' distribution, as opposed to the hypothesis that both abiotic and biotic factors were influencing factors. To analyze the distribution of Olivella minuta over time in the vertical axis of the beach, samples were collected monthly in the intertidal zone, from five random transects set out perpendicularly to the waterline with nine sampling units. In addition, samples were also obtained quarterly with five random transects comprised of nine and six sampling levels in the intertidal zone and in the infralittoral zone, respectively. Results showed a distribution pattern for the species in the intertidal zone over time and confirm the hypothesis that O. minuta is distributed along the vertical axis of the beach according to the size of individuals, with smaller individuals occurring in the infralittoral and migrating to the intertidal zone throughout their ontogeny. Outcomes shown in the present study help improve the knowledge on population ecology of sandy beaches because they relate the distribution of a macrofauna species to environmental factors and mainly due to the fact that sampling covers also the infralittoral zone, since its distribution is not exclusive to the intertidal zone
24

A Comparison of Modern Longitudinal Change Models with an Examination of Alternative Error Covariance Structures

Maerten-Rivera, Jaime 22 April 2010 (has links)
The purpose of this research was to compare results from two approaches to measuring change over time. The multilevel model (MLM) and latent growth model (LGM) were imposed and the parameter estimates were compared, along with model fit. The study came out of education and used data collected from 191 teachers as part of a professional development intervention in science, which took place over four years. There were missing data as a result of teacher attrition. Teachers reported use of reform-oriented practices (ROP) was used as the outcome, and teacher-level variables were examined for their impact on initial ROP and change in ROP from baseline to one year after the intervention. Change in ROP was examined using a piecewise change model where two linear slopes were modeled. The first slope estimated the change from baseline to T1, or the initial change after the intervention while the second slope estimated the change from T1 to T3, or the secondary change. Parameter estimates obtained from MLM and LGM for a model using the error covariance structure commonly assumed in MLM (i.e., random slopes, homogeneous level-1 variance) were nearly identical. Models with various alternative covariance structures (commonly associated with the LGM framework) were examined, and results were nearly identical. Most of the model fit information was in agreement regarding the best fitting model being the model that assumed the typical MLM error covariance structure with the exception of the standardized root mean square residual (SRMR) fit index. The results from the models demonstrated that ROP increased after participating in the first year of the intervention and this level was sustained, though did not increase significantly in subsequent years. There was more variation in ROP at baseline. This information tells us that the intervention was successful in that after participating in the intervention the teachers' used ROP more frequently. The success of the intervention did not depend on any of the predictors that we assessed, and, as a group, the teachers became more similar in their use of reform-oriented practices over time.
25

Are there gender differences in the use
 of questions in the sitcom Friends? : A case study of four episodes from 1994 and 2004 / Finns det genusskillnader i användandet av frågor i tv-serien Vänner? : En fallstudie av fyra avsnitt från 1994 och 2004

Jansson, Elin January 2018 (has links)
The main aim of this paper was to identify the form and function of questions used by the three female and three male characters in the sitcom Friends, in order to see whether there were any gender differences in the use of questions. Another aim was to see whether gender roles remain static over time in the series, from 1994 to 2004. Four episodes in total were used, two episodes from the first season and two from the last. The results clearly showed that the male characters asked more questions than the female characters which was the opposite of what research suggested. Out of the four main functions of questions (external questions, talk-questions, relational questions and expressive style questions), the male characters used the external and expressive style the most. This reflects what research says about men using questions more to show power and domination in conversations. Talk and relational questions were used more by the female characters, which agrees with previous research which shows that women use questions as a conversational tool more often than men. Over the ten-year period studied, there were no striking differences between the female and male characters when it came to the form of questions used. To sum up, the results turned out to agree to a great extent with previous research and the scripted dialogues seem to reflect authentic conversations surprisingly well. / Syftet med detta arbete var att identifiera olika typer och funktioner av frågor som används av de tre kvinnliga och de tre manliga karaktärerna i den amerikanska TV-serien Friends, för att se om det fanns genusskillnader i användandet av frågor. Det andra syftet var att se om könsrollerna är statiska över tid i serien, från 1994 till 2004. Fyra avsnitt totalt har använts, två avsnitt från den första säsongen och två från den sista. Resultatet från denna studie visade att de manliga karaktärerna ställde fler frågor än de kvinnliga karaktärerna vilket var motsatsen till vad tidigare forskning påvisat. Av de fyra huvudtyperna av frågor (externa frågor, talfrågor, relationella frågor och uttrycksfrågor), så använde sig de manliga karaktärerna mest av de externa frågorna och uttrycksfrågorna. Detta speglar vad forskning säger om att män använder frågor för att visa makt och dominans i konversationer. Talfrågorna och de relationella frågorna, som användes mest av de kvinnliga karaktärerna, speglar också tidigare forskning då kvinnor använder frågor som ett verktyg i konversation mer än män. Över decenniet fanns det inga slående skillnader mellan de manliga och kvinnliga karaktärerna när man tittar på vilken form av frågor som användes. Sammanfattningsvis visade sig resultaten överensstämma i hög grad med tidigare forskning och de nedskrivna dialogerna verkar spegla autentiska konversationer överraskande väl.
26

Análise de dados longitudinais em experimentos com cana-de-açúcar / Analysis of longitudinal data in experiments with sugar of cane

Edjane Gonçalves de Freitas 25 February 2008 (has links)
Nesse trabalho foi abordada a situação em que observações de produtividade da cana-de-açúcar (TCH) foram tomadas na mesma unidade experimental em diferentes condições de avalições (anos). Foram avaliados os perfis médios de resposta de 48 genótipos de cana-de-açúcar em dois experimentos: Experimento 1 e Experimento 2, durante três e cinco anos respectivamente, ambos com o delineamento de blocos ao acaso. Esse tipo de planejamento produz uma forma de relação entre as observações tomadas na mesma unidade experimental, portanto requer outras suposições, além das usuais, para que análise seja correta e os testes produzam resultados válidos. Para que as inferências sobre as médias de produtividade sejam válidas e seguras é necessário que o modelo da matriz de covariância dos dados seja apropriado. Diante disso, foram avalidos três alterantivas de análise para dados longitudinais (medidas repetidas no tempo ), sendo utilizados portanto, o modelo univariado, conforme o planejamento do tipo \"split-plot on time\", que impõe forte restrição quanto a matriz de variâncias-covariâncias; o modelo multivariado, que utiliza uma matriz de variâncias-covariâncias não-estruturada e o modelo mistos, que possibilita a seleção de uma matriz que melhor representa os dados. Contudo, verificou-se que não houve diferença entre os resultados dos testes para as diferentes metodologias. Porém, é interessante a continuidade do estudo em relação ao modelo misto, pois devido a sua flexibilidade e precisão é possível obter estimativas mais seguras dos componentes de variância e predizer os valores genotípicos, que por fim poderá proporcionar a predição de produção de uma futura colheita para um determinado genótipo. / This work has been dealt with situation in which observations of productivity of sugar of cane (TCH) were taken in the same unit experimental in different condition of assessments (years). The response profiles average of 48 genotypes of sugar of cane were evaluated in two experiments: Experiment 1 and Experiment 2, for three and five years respectively, both with the randomized complete block design. This type of planning produces a form of relationship between the observations made in the same unit experimental therefore requires other assumptions, in addition to the usual, so that analysis is correct and the test results valid. To that inferences on the means of productivity are valid and safe it is necessary that the model of covariance matrix of the data is appropriate. Therefore, were evaluated three alternatives for analysis of longitudinal data (repeated measures over time), the univariate model as the planning of the split-plot on time which imposes strong restrictions on variances - covariances matrix, the multivariate model, which uses a non-structured variances - covariances matrix and mixed model, which they are enable the selection of a matrix that best represents the data. However, it was found that there was no difference between the results of tests for the different methodologies. But it is interesting the continuity of the study in relation to mixed model, because due to its flexibility and accuracy will be possible to obtain more reliable estimates of the variance components and predict the genotypic values, which ultimately could provide a prediction of production of a future harvest for a given genotype.
27

Modelos estatísticos para dados politômicos nominais em estudos longitudinais com uma aplicação à área agronômica / Statistical models for nominal polytomous data in longitudinal studies with an application to agronomy

Vinicius Menarin 14 January 2016 (has links)
Estudos em que a resposta de interesse é uma variável categorizada são bastante comuns nas mais diversas áreas da Ciência. Em muitas situações essa resposta é composta por mais de duas categorias não ordenadas, denominada então de uma variável politômica nominal, e em geral o objetivo do estudo é associar a probabilidade de ocorrência de cada categoria aos efeitos de variáveis explicativas. Ademais, existem tipos especiais de estudos em que os dados são coletados diversas vezes para uma mesma unidade amostral ao longo do tempo, os estudos longitudinais. Estudos assim requerem o uso de modelos estatísticos que considerem em sua formulação algum tipo de estrutura que suporte a dependência que tende a surgir entre observações feitas em uma mesma unidade amostral. Neste trabalho são abordadas duas extensões do modelo de logitos generalizados, usualmente empregado quando a resposta é politômica nominal com observações independentes entre si. A primeira consiste de uma modificação das equações de estimação generalizadas para dados nominais que se utiliza de razões de chances locais para descrever a dependência entre as observações da variável resposta politômica ao longo dos diversos tempos observados. Este tipo de modelo é denominado de modelo marginal. A segunda proposta abordada consiste no modelo de logitos generalizados com a inclusão de efeitos aleatórios no preditor linear, que também leva em conta uma dependência entre as observações. Esta abordagem caracteriza o modelo de logitos generalizados misto. Há diferenças importantes inerentes às interpretações dos modelos marginais e mistos, que são discutidas e que devem ser levadas em consideração na escolha da abordagem adequada. Ambas as propostas são aplicadas em um conjunto de dados proveniente de um experimento da área agronômica realizado em campo, conduzido sob um delineamento casualizado em blocos com esquema fatorial para os tratamentos. O experimento foi acompanhado ao longo de seis estações do ano, caracterizando assim uma estrutura longitudinal, sendo a variável resposta o tipo de vegetação observado no campo (touceiras, plantas invasoras ou espaços vazios). Os resultados encontrados são satisfatórios, embora a dependência presente nos dados não seja tão caracterizada; por meio de testes como da razão de verossimilhanças e de Wald diversas diferenças significativas entre os tratamentos foram encontradas. Ainda, devido às diferenças metodológicas das duas abordagens, o modelo marginal baseado nas equações de estimação generalizadas mostra-se mais adequado para esses dados. / Studies where the response is a categorical variable are quite common in many fields of Sciences. In many situations this response is composed by more than two unordered categories characterizing a nominal polytomous outcome and, in general, the aim of the study is to associate the probability of occurrence of each category to the effects of variables. Furthermore, there are special types of study where many measurements are taken over the time for the same sampling unit, called longitudinal studies. Such studies require special statistical models that consider some kind of structure that support the dependence that tends to arise from the repeated measurements for the same sampling unit. This work focuses on two extensions of the baseline-category logit model usually employed in cases when there is a nominal polytomous response with independent observations. The first one consists in a modification of the well-known generalized estimating equations for longitudinal data based on local odds ratios to describe the dependence between the levels of the response over the repeated measurements. This type of model is also known as a marginal model. The second approach adds random effects to the linear predictor of the baseline-category logit model, which also considers a dependence between the observations. This characterizes a baseline-category mixed model. There are substantial differences inherent to interpretations when marginal and mixed models are compared, what should be considered in the choice of the most appropriated approach for each situation. Both methodologies are applied to the data of an agronomic experiment installed under a complete randomized block design with a factorial arrangement for the treatments. It was carried out over six seasons, characterizing the longitudinal structure, and the response is the type of vegetation observed in field (tussocks, weeds or regions with bare ground). The results are satisfactory, even if the dependence found in data is not so strong, and likelihood-ratio and Wald tests point to several differences between treatments. Moreover, due to methodological differences between the two approaches, the marginal model based on generalized estimating equations seems to be more appropriate for this data.
28

Srovnání (a historická podmíněnost) výstupů ze strojových překladačů / Comparing Machine Translation Output (and the Way it Changes over Time)

Kyselová, Soňa January 2018 (has links)
This diploma thesis focuses on machine translation (MT), which has been studied for a relatively long time in linguistics (and later also in translation studies) and which in recent years is at the forefront of the broader public as well. This thesis aims to explore the quality of machine translation outputs and the way it changes over time. The theoretical part first deals with the machine translation in general, namely basic definitions, brief history and approaches to machine translation, then describes online machine translation systems and evaluation methods. Finally, this part provides a methodological model for the empirical part. Using a set of texts translated with MT, the empirical part seeks to check how online machine translation systems deal with translation of different text-types and whether there is improvement of the quality of MT outputs over time. In order to do so, an analysis of text-type, semantics, lexicology, stylistics and pragmatics is carried out as well as a rating of the general applicability of the translation. The final part of this thesis compares and concludes the results of the analysis. With regard to this comparation, conclusions are made and general tendencies stated that have emerged from the empirical part of the thesis.
29

EVIDENCE-BASED HEALTH PROMOTION: EXPLORING THE EVOLUTION OF THE EFFECTIVENESS OF SCHOOL-BASED ANTI-BULLYING INTERVENTIONS OVER TIME

Chalamandaris, Alexandros-Georgios 09 May 2018 (has links)
The objectives of this thesis were to explore how effectiveness of school-based anti-bullying interventions (SBABI) evolves over time and to assess the possibility to predict the medium-term or long-term effectiveness of SBABIs on the basis of their short-term effectiveness. The first step included a literature review in order to understand the study designs and evaluation techniques that researches used to assess the effectiveness. This literature review described the methodologies based on which researchers collected evidence and concluded on the effectiveness of their SBABIs. In order to address the thesis objectives, a collaborative project was established, named SET-Bullying (“Statistical modelling of the Effectiveness of school based anti-bullying interventions and Time”). The above-mentioned literature review was used to identify potentially eligible studies. After addressing a call for collaboration to the corresponding authors of these studies, this project included data from two of them, the DFE-SHEFFIELD study from United Kingdom and the RESPEKT study from Norway. Both of these studies have used pupil self-reported frequencies on being bullied and bullying others as an effectiveness measure, but using different instruments to elicit this information. Thus, the subsequent step of this thesis was to harmonize the data from these studies using polychoric principal components analysis, in order to be able to perform the same analysis with the data from both studies. The data from both studies were analysed using mixed effect models in order to take into account the hierarchical (i.e. the responses of pupils from the same school may be more correlated with each other as opposed to the responses of pupils from different schools) and the longitudinal structure (i.e. same pupils are more likely to respond in a similar way in the repeated measurements of each studies) of the data. With regard to the primary objective of the thesis, it was observed that effectiveness (where it is observed) may evolve either in a linear fashion or a “delayed effect” may be observed. This refers to a minimal evolution of effectiveness over the first study measurements and a sharper evolution at the later study measurements. This finding is only hypothesis generating at this point. Would this be confirmed in future studies, it will have important implication of the design, implementation and evaluations of SBABIs. About the secondary objective of this thesis, there were some preliminary findings of the possibility to predict the medium-term or long-term effectiveness based on the short-term effectiveness. However, these predictions in some cases seemed to be very variable. Future research should focus on how to make these predictions more accurate in order that this allows for dynamic and adaptable delivery of SBABIs. / Doctorat en Santé Publique / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished
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A Topics Analysis Model for Health Insurance Claims

Webb, Jared Anthony 18 October 2013 (has links) (PDF)
Mathematical probability has a rich theory and powerful applications. Of particular note is the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for sampling from high dimensional distributions that may not admit a naive analysis. We develop the theory of the MCMC method from first principles and prove its relevance. We also define a Bayesian hierarchical model for generating data. By understanding how data are generated we may infer hidden structure about these models. We use a specific MCMC method called a Gibbs' sampler to discover topic distributions in a hierarchical Bayesian model called Topics Over Time. We propose an innovative use of this model to discover disease and treatment topics in a corpus of health insurance claims data. By representing individuals as mixtures of topics, we are able to consider their future costs on an individual level rather than as part of a large collective.

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