This master's thesis is divided into three parts. In the first part I described P2P lending, its characteristics, basic concepts and practical implications. I also compared P2P market in the Czech Republic, UK and USA. The second part consists of theoretical basics for chosen methods of machine learning, which are naive bayes classifier, classification tree, random forest and logistic regression. I also described methods to evaluate the quality of classification models listed above. The third part is a practical one and shows the complete workflow of creating classification model, from data preparation to evaluation of model.

金融科技因為能大幅降低金融活動中的交易成本與門檻，同時打破傳統金融交易資訊不及時的情況，因此能創造以往未有的商業價值。其中P2P Lending即透過電子化技術創造交易平台媒合資金提供者與需求者的微型授信服務，因為省去傳統金融機構中介的成本，故能提升供需雙方效益。然而特殊的營運方式使資金提供者須承擔更高風險，實際上P2P Lending亦曾發生重大詐騙與倒帳事件，因此使英美中政府加強監管，相較之下，我國仍維持不納入金融監管原則，因此本研究試圖以Lending Club具有代表性的案例，提供投資者選擇投資標的的建議。 本研究搜集Lending Club自2007年至2011年42538筆已發行之借貸，在111個變數中使用 Pearson Correlation以及Information gain，並輔以文獻回顧進行變數選擇挑選22個變數。在搭配Dropout技術與透過網格搜索分析最佳化演算法、批次訓練樣本數、訓練次數等參數配置後，本研究訓練得到在測試集準確度達76%的類神經網路模型。經模擬後發現，類神經網路ROI的平均值為9.40，高於對照組7.02，經檢定驗證此差異結果可以採信，因此類神經網路能有效的給予投資人有效的投資建議。

Peer-to-Peer-Finanzierungen haben in den letzten Jahren nicht nur aufgrund ihres disruptiven Charakters, sondern auch aufgrund ihres raschen Wachstums und der wachsenden Bandbreite an Dienstleistungen zunehmend Beachtung gefunden. Peer-to-Peer Kreditplattformen versuchen, Banken zu umgehen, um Kreditnehmern eine Alternative und Anlegern eine neue Anlageklasse anzubieten - wird dies zu einem „Banking ohne Banken“ führen? Peer-to-Peer Betreiber müssen darauf achten, dass sie ihre Geschäfte gemäß den geltenden Gesetzen und Vorschriften planen und betreiben, auch wenn sie mit einer Bank zusammenarbeiten, die als Kreditgeber fungiert, da die Nichteinhaltung der geltenden Vorschriften unter anderem zivil- und strafrechtliche Sanktionen, Prozesskosten sowie nachteilige Publizität und im schlimmsten Fall die Beendigung des Geschäfts nach sich ziehen kann. Zusätzliche Schwierigkeiten ergeben sich aufgrund unterschiedlicher Vorschriften in den europäischen Ländern. Infolgedessen muss eine neue Beurteilung des rechtlichen Umfelds vorgenommen werden, bevor ein Peer-to-Peer Betreiber sein Geschäft auf andere Länder ausweiten kann, was häufig zu unterschiedlichen Konfigurationen und Geschäftsmodellen führt. In dieser Dissertation sollen die wichtigsten Bestimmungen für die Vergabe von Peer-to-Peer Krediten herausgearbeitet werden. Der Schwerpunkt liegt auf den rechtlichen Rahmenbedingungen für Peer-to-Peer Kredite in Deutschland, d.h. welche Vorschriften diese Plattformen erfüllen müssen, um ihr Geschäftsmodell zu betreiben, und/ oder welche Vorschriften und Lizenzanforderungen für diese Unternehmen gelten. Zunächst wird erklärt, was Peer-to-Peer Kredite sind, wie sie sich entwickelt haben und wie sie funktionieren. Die rechtlichen Rahmenbedingungen werden sowohl für Deutschland als auch für europäische Länder, nämlich das Vereinigte Königreich, Schweden und die Niederlande, im Vergleich untersucht. Anschließend wird untersucht, warum verschiedene europäische Länder unterschiedliche Regeln anwenden und ob es möglich wäre, solche Regelungen für Peer-to-Peer Kredite in ganz Europa zu harmonisieren und gleichzeitig sicherzustellen, dass die Hauptgründe der Länder erfüllt werden. / Peer-to-peer finance has received increasing attention over the last years, not only because of its disruptive nature, but also because of its rapid growth and expanding breadth of services. Peer-to-peer lending platforms try to circumvent banks to offer borrowers an alternative and investors a new asset class – will this lead to a “Banking without banks”. Peer-to-peer operators need to be careful to plan and operate their business in compliance with applicable laws and regulations, even if they cooperate with a non-affiliated bank that acts as lender of record, since failure to comply with applicable regulations can result in, among others, civil and criminal penalties, litigation expenses as well as adverse publicity and in the worst case the termination of the business. Additional difficulties arise due to different regulations across European countries. Consequently a new assessment of the legal environment needs to be made before a peer-to-peer operator can expand its business into other countries and often leads to differing setups and business models. The dissertation is intended to identify principal regulations that apply to peer-to-peer lending. The focus lies on the legal framework for peer-to-peer lending in Germany, i.e. which regulations such platforms have to comply with in order to operate their business model and/or which regulations are applicable to such businesses and which license requirements apply. First of all it will be explained what peer-to-peer lending is, how it evolved and how it works. The legal framework will be investigated with regards to Germany as well as European countries, namely the United Kingdom, Sweden and the Netherlands, in comparison. It will then be examined why different European countries apply different rules and whether it would be possible to harmonise such regulations for peer-to-peer lending across Europe whilst ensuring that the countries’ main rationales are fulfilled.

Tesis por compendio / [ES] La financiación es uno de los aspectos más importantes, y muchas veces problemáticos, a la hora de crear una empresa. Hay distintas formas de financiarse, con fondos propios o ajenos. El crowdfunding es una forma, relativamente reciente de financiación, con fondos ajenos al capital del promotor del negocio y basada en el uso de plataformas tecnológicas. Existen distintas formas de crowdfunding. Algunas se pueden basar en donaciones, como por ejemplo para financiar proyectos comunitarios, músicos y artísticos. Otras pueden basarse en la recaudación y contribuciones de individuos que buscan recompensas no monetarias. Otras pueden formar parte del sistema de financiación alternativa para los empresarios y emprendedores. Dentro de estas podemos diferenciar, por un lado las aportaciones de los inversores a cambio de acciones de las empresas financiadas, más conocido como crowdfunding basado en acciones (crowdequity), Y por otro lado, las que se basan en la solicitud de crédito, donde los inversores esperan recibir el principal aportado más intereses siguiendo un modelo de préstamo tradicional (crowdlending). El objetivo de esta tesis es focalizarlo en este último: el crowdlending. Para ello hemos realizado cuatro trabajos de investigación que se han publicado en cuatro diferentes journals indexados en Web of Science de Clarivate (con JCR). En primer lugar, se estudia el estado del arte del crowdlending dentro del crowdfunding. En segundo lugar, se analizan dos casos importantes de crowdlending en dos sectores distintos (relojes como complemento de moda y el sector del vino). En tercer lugar, se analizan 17 plataformas activas de crowdlending para ver la actividad de las mismas en relación a los inversores. En cuarto y último lugar, se estudian los factores en la gestión de la información que se asocian a una plataforma de proyectos de crowdlending. El crowdlending es una herramienta de financiación que surge de la economía colaborativa. Se emplea una plataforma online para poner en común inversores que ofrecen recursos económicos, con empresas/individuos emprendedores que necesitan y demandan recursos monetarios. Para ello, lo primero que hemos realizado ha sido una revisión de la literatura previa en el topic (plasmado en el primer artículo). Luego hemos realizado un estudio cualitativo, centrado en dos casos de crowdlending a nivel nacional (plasmado en el segundo artículo). Con posterioridad realizamos un estudio cuantitativo de plataformas con el propósito de crear un indicador sintético definido por una serie de variables influyentes: importe total de los préstamos intermediados en la plataforma, variación anual de este importe, número de inversores y su variación anual, rentabilidad media, préstamos por inversor y su variación anual, y por último la oferta y la demanda de este modelo de financiación (plasmado en el tercer artículo). Finalmente acabamos la investigación de la tesis con un análisis cualitativo comparativo (QCA) utilizando tanto componentes numéricos como cualitativos (plasmado en el cuarto artículo). / [CA] La finançació és un dels aspectes més importants, i moltes voltes problemàtics, a l'hora de crear una empresa. Hi ha distintes formes de finançar-se, en fondos propis o aliens. El crowdfunding és una forma, relativament recent de finançació, en fondos aliens al capital del promotor del negoci i basada en l'us de plataformes tecnològiques. Existixen distintes formes de crowdfunding. Algunes es poden basar en donacions, com per eixemple per a finançar proyectes comunitaris, músics i artístics. Unes atres poden basar-se en la recaptació i contribucions d'individus que busquen recompenses no monetàries. Unes atres poden formar part del sistema de finançació alternativa per als empresaris i mamprenedors. Dins d'estes podem diferenciar, per un costat les aportacions dels inversors a canvi d'accions de les empreses finançades, més conegut com crowdfunding basat en accions (crowdequity), I per un atre costat, les que es basen en la solicitut de crèdit, a on els inversors esperen rebre el principal aportat més interessos seguint un model de préstam tradicional (crowdlending). L'objectiu d'esta tesis és focalizarlo en este últim: el crowdlending. Per a això hem realisat quatre treballs d'investigació que s'han publicat en quatre diferents journals indexats en Web of Science de Clarivate (en JCR). En primer lloc, s'estudiarà l'estat de l'art del crowdlending dins del crowdfunding. En segon lloc, s'analisaran dos casos importants de crowdlending en dos sectors distints (rellonges com a complement de moda i el sector del vi). En tercer lloc, s'analisaran 17 plataformes actives de crowdlending per a vore l'activitat de les mateixes en relació als inversors. En quarto i últim lloc, s'estudien els factors en la gestió de l'informació que s'associen a una plataforma de proyectes de crowdlending. El crowdlending és una ferramenta de finançació que sorgix de l'economia colaborativa. S'ampra una plataforma online per a posar en comú inversors que oferixen recursos econòmics, en empreses/individus mamprenedors que necessiten i demanden recursos monetaris. Per a això, lo primer que hem realisat ha segut una revisió de la lliteratura prèvia en el topic (plasmat en el primer artícul). Després hem realisat un estudi qualitatiu, centrat en dos casos de crowdlending a nivell nacional (plasmat en el segon artícul). En posterioritat realisem un estudi quantitatiu de plataformes en el propòsit de crear un indicador sintètic definit per una série de variables influents: import total dels préstams intermediats en la plataforma, variació anual d'este import, número d'inversors i la seua variació anual, rendabilitat mitjana, préstams per inversor i la seua variació anual, i per últim l'oferta i la demanda d'este model de finançació (plasmat en el tercer artícul). Finalment acabem l'investigació de la tesis en un anàlisis qualitatiu comparatiu (QCA) utilisant tant components numèrics com a qualitatius (plasmat en el quart artícul). / [EN] Financing is one of the most important, and often problematic, aspects of starting a business. There are different ways of financing, with own or third party funds. Crowdfunding is a relatively recent form of financing, with funds outside the capital of the business promoter and based on the use of technological platforms. There are different forms of crowdfunding. Some may be based on donations, for example to finance community, music and art projects. Others may be based on fundraising and contributions from individuals seeking non-monetary rewards. Others may be part of the alternative financing system for entrepreneurs and business people. Within these we can differentiate, on the one hand the contributions of investors in exchange for shares of the funded companies, better known as crowdfunding based on shares (crowdequity), and on the other hand, those based on the application for credit, where investors expect to receive the principal contributed plus interest following a traditional lending model (crowdlending). The objective of this thesis is to focus on the latter: crowdlending. To this end, we have carried out four research papers that have been published in four different journals indexed in Clarivate's Web of Science (with JCR). First, the state of the art of crowdlending within crowdfunding will be studied. Secondly, two important cases of crowdlending in two different sectors will be analyzed (watches as a fashion accessory and the wine sector). Thirdly, 17 active crowdlending platforms will be analyzed to see their activity in relation to investors. Fourthly and finally, the factors in information management associated with a crowdlending project platform are studied. Crowdlending is a financing tool that arises from the collaborative economy. An online platform is used to match investors who offer economic resources with entrepreneurial companies/individuals who need and demand monetary resources. To do this, the first thing we have done has been a review of previous literature on the topic (reflected in the first article). Then we conducted a qualitative study, focused on two cases of crowdlending at national level (shown in the second article). Subsequently, we conducted a quantitative study of platforms in order to create a synthetic indicator defined by a series of influential variables: total amount of loans intermediated on the platform, annual variation of this amount, number of investors and their annual variation, average profitability, loans per investor and their annual variation, and finally the supply and demand of this financing model (reflected in the third article). Finally, we finish the thesis research with a qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) using both numerical and qualitative components (presented in the fourth article). ¿ / Ribeiro Navarrete, S. (2022). El crowd o multitud como método de financiación de proyectos empresariales. Referencia al crowdlending o préstamo de multitud [Tesis doctoral]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/186242 / TESIS / Compendio

Despite its benefits, online peer-to-peer lending bears the risks associated with traditional forms of institutionalised lending. However, because individuals have taken over the role of the institutional lender, and the institutional participant in this form of lending takes a step back by acting only as an intermediary between the borrowers and lenders, ordinary individuals are left to bear the type of risks that institutions have traditionally borne, but without the same means of doing so. There has been little academic analysis of the role and form that regulation should take in the regulation of peer-to-peer lending and most discussions centre on the American regulatory experience. This thesis sets out to examine the theoretical classification of online peer-to-peer lending and the theoretical and practical justifications for regulating it. The aim is to ascertain the most appropriate way to regulate peer-to-peer lending, taking into account the underlying conceptual model which underpins it. The study adopts a theoretical analysis of P2PL participants and regulation based on the concepts of consumer protection and paternalism. It includes a doctrinal analysis of the UK peer-to-peer lending legislation and regulation to identify, describe and explain the rules pertaining to the industry. It also uses a comparative approach to compare P2PL with existing forms of financial lending and similar (dis)intermediated forms of transacting between individuals to show that online peer-to-peer lending is a unique form of intermediated transaction. The thesis argues that it is important that regulation displays an understanding of the underlying conceptual framework of the business model it aims to regulate. In doing so, it also argues that the peer-to-peer lending users are more than just ‘consumers’. They demonstrate a shift in the conception of individuals from consumers to prosumers because they participate in the production side of the services they receive. It goes further than existing discussions of prosumption by positing the concept of the ‘lendsumer’ to give a more accurate account of the role and experiences of peer-to-peer lenders and the effect this has on their transactional relationships and the risks they face because of this role. Based on this analysis, the thesis shows that the UK regulatory regime has limited suitability because it lacks awareness of the underlying prosumption model of peer-to-peer lending, focusing only on the business-to-consumer aspects. Consequently, it does not resolve all the issues resulting from the tripartite, participatory nature of the peer-to-peer lending transaction. In light of these findings, the thesis proposes the regulatory use of two main concepts and highlights their implications for peer-to-peer lending regulation. The first is the ‘lendsumer’ as a new paradigm of the consumer which has implications for the regulatory protections afforded to the P2P lenders. The second is the use of gatekeeper liability, adapted to online peer-to-peer lending, as a way to affect these protections in light of the particular vulnerabilities and risks experienced by the peer-to-peer lender.