Im Mittelpunkt dieser Arbeit stehen virtuelle 3D-Stadtmodelle, die Objekte, Phänomene und Prozesse in urbanen Räumen in digitaler Form repräsentieren. Sie haben sich zu einem Kernthema von Geoinformationssystemen entwickelt und bilden einen zentralen Bestandteil geovirtueller 3D-Welten. Virtuelle 3D-Stadtmodelle finden nicht nur Verwendung als Mittel für Experten in Bereichen wie Stadtplanung, Funknetzplanung, oder Lärmanalyse, sondern auch für allgemeine Nutzer, die realitätsnah dargestellte virtuelle Städte in Bereichen wie Bürgerbeteiligung, Tourismus oder Unterhaltung nutzen und z. B. in Anwendungen wie GoogleEarth eine räumliche Umgebung intuitiv erkunden und durch eigene 3D-Modelle oder zusätzliche Informationen erweitern. Die Erzeugung und Darstellung virtueller 3D-Stadtmodelle besteht aus einer Vielzahl von Prozessschritten, von denen in der vorliegenden Arbeit zwei näher betrachtet werden: Texturierung und Visualisierung. Im Bereich der Texturierung werden Konzepte und Verfahren zur automatischen Ableitung von Fototexturen aus georeferenzierten Schrägluftbildern sowie zur Speicherung oberflächengebundener Daten in virtuellen 3D-Stadtmodellen entwickelt. Im Bereich der Visualisierung werden Konzepte und Verfahren für die multiperspektivische Darstellung sowie für die hochqualitative Darstellung nichtlinearer Projektionen virtueller 3D-Stadtmodelle in interaktiven Systemen vorgestellt. Die automatische Ableitung von Fototexturen aus georeferenzierten Schrägluftbildern ermöglicht die Veredelung vorliegender virtueller 3D-Stadtmodelle. Schrägluftbilder bieten sich zur Texturierung an, da sie einen Großteil der Oberflächen einer Stadt, insbesondere Gebäudefassaden, mit hoher Redundanz erfassen. Das Verfahren extrahiert aus dem verfügbaren Bildmaterial alle Ansichten einer Oberfläche und fügt diese pixelpräzise zu einer Textur zusammen. Durch Anwendung auf alle Oberflächen wird das virtuelle 3D-Stadtmodell flächendeckend texturiert. Der beschriebene Ansatz wurde am Beispiel des offiziellen Berliner 3D-Stadtmodells sowie der in GoogleEarth integrierten Innenstadt von München erprobt. Die Speicherung oberflächengebundener Daten, zu denen auch Texturen zählen, wurde im Kontext von CityGML, einem international standardisierten Datenmodell und Austauschformat für virtuelle 3D-Stadtmodelle, untersucht. Es wird ein Datenmodell auf Basis computergrafischer Konzepte entworfen und in den CityGML-Standard integriert. Dieses Datenmodell richtet sich dabei an praktischen Anwendungsfällen aus und lässt sich domänenübergreifend verwenden. Die interaktive multiperspektivische Darstellung virtueller 3D-Stadtmodelle ergänzt die gewohnte perspektivische Darstellung nahtlos um eine zweite Perspektive mit dem Ziel, den Informationsgehalt der Darstellung zu erhöhen. Diese Art der Darstellung ist durch die Panoramakarten von H. C. Berann inspiriert; Hauptproblem ist die Übertragung des multiperspektivischen Prinzips auf ein interaktives System. Die Arbeit stellt eine technische Umsetzung dieser Darstellung für 3D-Grafikhardware vor und demonstriert die Erweiterung von Vogel- und Fußgängerperspektive. Die hochqualitative Darstellung nichtlinearer Projektionen beschreibt deren Umsetzung auf 3D-Grafikhardware, wobei neben der Bildwiederholrate die Bildqualität das wesentliche Entwicklungskriterium ist. Insbesondere erlauben die beiden vorgestellten Verfahren, dynamische Geometrieverfeinerung und stückweise perspektivische Projektionen, die uneingeschränkte Nutzung aller hardwareseitig verfügbaren, qualitätssteigernden Funktionen wie z.~B. Bildraumgradienten oder anisotroper Texturfilterung. Beide Verfahren sind generisch und unterstützen verschiedene Projektionstypen. Sie ermöglichen die anpassungsfreie Verwendung gängiger computergrafischer Effekte wie Stilisierungsverfahren oder prozeduraler Texturen für nichtlineare Projektionen bei optimaler Bildqualität. Die vorliegende Arbeit beschreibt wesentliche Technologien für die Verarbeitung virtueller 3D-Stadtmodelle: Zum einen lassen sich mit den Ergebnissen der Arbeit Texturen für virtuelle 3D-Stadtmodelle automatisiert herstellen und als eigenständige Attribute in das virtuelle 3D-Stadtmodell einfügen. Somit trägt diese Arbeit dazu bei, die Herstellung und Fortführung texturierter virtueller 3D-Stadtmodelle zu verbessern. Zum anderen zeigt die Arbeit Varianten und technische Lösungen für neuartige Projektionstypen für virtueller 3D-Stadtmodelle in interaktiven Visualisierungen. Solche nichtlinearen Projektionen stellen Schlüsselbausteine dar, um neuartige Benutzungsschnittstellen für und Interaktionsformen mit virtuellen 3D-Stadtmodellen zu ermöglichen, insbesondere für mobile Geräte und immersive Umgebungen. / This thesis concentrates on virtual 3D city models that digitally encode objects, phenomena, and processes in urban environments. Such models have become core elements of geographic information systems and constitute a major component of geovirtual 3D worlds. Expert users make use of virtual 3D city models in various application domains, such as urban planning, radio-network planning, and noise immision simulation. Regular users utilize virtual 3D city models in domains, such as tourism, and entertainment. They intuitively explore photorealistic virtual 3D city models through mainstream applications such as GoogleEarth, which additionally enable users to extend virtual 3D city models by custom 3D models and supplemental information. Creation and rendering of virtual 3D city models comprise a large number of processes, from which texturing and visualization are in the focus of this thesis. In the area of texturing, this thesis presents concepts and techniques for automatic derivation of photo textures from georeferenced oblique aerial imagery and a concept for the integration of surface-bound data into virtual 3D city model datasets. In the area of visualization, this thesis presents concepts and techniques for multiperspective views and for high-quality rendering of nonlinearly projected virtual 3D city models in interactive systems. The automatic derivation of photo textures from georeferenced oblique aerial imagery is a refinement process for a given virtual 3D city model. Our approach uses oblique aerial imagery, since it provides a citywide highly redundant coverage of surfaces, particularly building facades. From this imagery, our approach extracts all views of a given surface and creates a photo texture by selecting the best view on a pixel level. By processing all surfaces, the virtual 3D city model becomes completely textured. This approach has been tested for the official 3D city model of Berlin and the model of the inner city of Munich accessible in GoogleEarth. The integration of surface-bound data, which include textures, into virtual 3D city model datasets has been performed in the context of CityGML, an international standard for the exchange and storage of virtual 3D city models. We derive a data model from a set of use cases and integrate it into the CityGML standard. The data model uses well-known concepts from computer graphics for data representation. Interactive multiperspective views of virtual 3D city models seamlessly supplement a regular perspective view with a second perspective. Such a construction is inspired by panorama maps by H. C. Berann and aims at increasing the amount of information in the image. Key aspect is the construction's use in an interactive system. This thesis presents an approach to create multiperspective views on 3D graphics hardware and exemplifies the extension of bird's eye and pedestrian views. High-quality rendering of nonlinearly projected virtual 3D city models focuses on the implementation of nonlinear projections on 3D graphics hardware. The developed concepts and techniques focus on high image quality. This thesis presents two such concepts, namely dynamic mesh refinement and piecewise perspective projections, which both enable the use of all graphics hardware features, such as screen space gradients and anisotropic texture filtering under nonlinear projections. Both concepts are generic and customizable towards specific projections. They enable the use of common computer graphics effects, such as stylization effects or procedural textures, for nonlinear projections at optimal image quality and interactive frame rates. This thesis comprises essential techniques for virtual 3D city model processing. First, the results of this thesis enable automated creation of textures for and their integration as individual attributes into virtual 3D city models. Hence, this thesis contributes to an improved creation and continuation of textured virtual 3D city models. Furthermore, the results provide novel approaches to and technical solutions for projecting virtual 3D city models in interactive visualizations. Such nonlinear projections are key components of novel user interfaces and interaction techniques for virtual 3D city models, particularly on mobile devices and in immersive environments.

Ce travail porte sur la reconstruction de signaux et le redimensionnement d'images.<br /> La reconstruction vise à estimer une fonction dont on ne connaît que des mesures linéaires éventuellement bruitées.<br />Par exemple, le problème d'interpolation uniforme consiste à estimer une fonction s(t), n'en connaissant que les valeurs s(k) aux entiers k.<br /><br /> L'approche proposée est originale et consiste à effectuer une quasi-projection dans un espace fonctionnel fixé, en minimisant l'erreur d'approximation lorsque le pas d'échantillonnage tend vers zéro.<br />Les cas 1D, 2D cartésien, et 2D hexagonal sont évoqués.<br /><br /> Nous appliquons ensuite notre formalisme au problème de l'agrandissement d'images, pour lequel seules des méthodes non-linéaires s'avèrent à même de synthétiser correctement l'information géométrique à laquelle nous sommes le plus sensibles.<br /><br /> Nous proposons une méthode appelée induction, à la fois simple, rapide et performante.

A data stream is a transiently observed sequence of data elements that arrive unordered, with repetitions, and at very high rate of transmission. Examples include Internet traffic data, networks of banking and credit transactions, and radar derived meteorological data. Computer science and engineering communities have developed randomised, probabilistic algorithms to estimate statistics of interest over streaming data on the fly, with small computational complexity and storage requirements, by constructing low dimensional representations of the stream known as data sketches. This thesis combines techniques of statistical inference with algorithmic approaches, such as hashing and random projections, to derive efficient estimators for cardinality, l_{alpha} distance and quasi-distance, and entropy over streaming data. I demonstrate an unexpected connection between two approaches to cardinality estimation that involve indirect record keeping: the first using pseudo-random variates and storing selected order statistics, and the second using random projections. I show that l_{alpha} distances and quasi-distances between data streams, and entropy, can be recovered from random projections that exploit properties of alpha-stable distributions with full statistical efficiency. This is achieved by the method of L-estimation in a single-pass algorithm with modest computational requirements. The proposed estimators have good small sample performance, improved by the methods of trimming and winsorising; in other words, the value of these summary statistics can be approximated with high accuracy from data sketches of low dimension. Finally, I consider the problem of convergence assessment of Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for simulating from complex, high dimensional, discrete distributions. I argue that online, fast, and efficient computation of summary statistics such as cardinality, entropy, and l_{alpha} distances may be a useful qualitative tool for detecting lack of convergence, and illustrate this with simulations of the posterior distribution of a decomposable Gaussian graphical model via the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm.

Cette thèse aborde la problématique de la modélisation multiphysique en génie électrique, avec une application à l'étude des vibrations d'origine électromagnétique des cages de développantes. Cette étude comporte quatre parties : la construction de la densité de courant, le calcul des forces locales, le transfert de solutions entre maillages et la résolution des problèmes couplés. Un premier enjeu est de correctement représenter les courants, cette opération est effectuée en deux étapes : la construction de la densité de courant et l'annulation de la divergence. Si des structures complexes sont utilisées, l'imposition du courant ne peut pas toujours être réalisée à l'aide de méthodes analytiques. Une méthode basée sur une résolution électrocinétique ainsi qu'une méthode purement géométrique sont testées. Cette dernière donne des résultats plus proches de la densité de courant réelle. Parmi les nombreuses méthodes de calcul de forces, les méthodes des travaux virtuels et des forces de Laplace, considérées par la littérature comme les plus adaptées au calcul des forces locales, ont été étudiées. Nos travaux ont montré que bien que les forces de Laplace sont particulièrement précises, elles ne sont pas valables si la perméabilité n'est plus homogène. Ainsi, la méthode des travaux virtuels, applicable de manière universelle, est préférée. Afin de modéliser des problèmes multi-physiques complexes à l'aide de plusieurs codes de calculs dédiés, des méthodes de transferts entre maillages non conformes ont été développées. Les procédures d'interpolations, les méthodes localement conservatives et les projections orthogonales sont comparées. Les méthodes d'interpolations sont réputées rapides mais très diffusives tandis que les méthodes de projections sont considérées comme les plus précises. La méthode localement conservative peut être vue comme produisant des résultats comparables aux méthodes de projections, mais évite l'assemblage et la résolution de systèmes linéaires. La modélisation des problèmes multi-physiques est abordée à l'aide des méthodes de transferts de solutions. Pour une classe de problème donnée, l'assemblage d'un schéma de couplage n'est pas unique. Des tests sur des cas analytiques sont réalisés afin de déterminer, pour plusieurs types de couplages, les stratégies les plus appropriées.Ces travaux ont permis une application à la modélisation magnéto-mécanique des cages de développantes est présentée.

We employ income projection models based on human capital dynamics in order to assess quantitatively the role that educational improvements are expected to play as a driver of future income convergence in Europe. We concentrate on income convergence dynamics between emerging economies in Central and Eastern Europe and Western European countries during the next 50 years. Our results indicate that improvements in human capital contribute significantly to the income convergence potential of European emerging economies. Using realistic scenarios, we quantify the effect that future human capital investments paths are expected to have in terms of speeding up the income convergence process in the region. The income projection exercise shows that the returns to investing in education in terms of income convergence in Europe could be sizeable, although it may take relatively long for the poorer economies of the region to rip the growth benefits. (authors' abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

From a fresh data science perspective, this thesis discusses the prediction of coronary artery disease based on Single-Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) from the Ontario Heart Genomics Study (OHGS). First, the thesis explains the k-Nearest Neighbour (k-NN) and Random Forest learning algorithms, and includes a complete proof that k-NN is universally consistent in finite dimensional normed vector spaces. Second, the thesis introduces two dimensionality reduction techniques: Random Projections and a new method termed Mass Transportation Distance (MTD) Feature Selection. Then, this thesis compares the performance of Random Projections with k-NN against MTD Feature Selection and Random Forest for predicting artery disease. Results demonstrate that MTD Feature Selection with Random Forest is superior to Random Projections and k-NN. Random Forest is able to obtain an accuracy of 0.6660 and an area under the ROC curve of 0.8562 on the OHGS dataset, when 3335 SNPs are selected by MTD Feature Selection for classification. This area is considerably better than the previous high score of 0.608 obtained by Davies et al. in 2010 on the same dataset.

Oil is the world’s largest primary energy source. It dominates the transportation sector which underpins the world economy. Yet, oil is a nonrenewable resource, destined not to last forever. In the mid-2000s global conventional oil production stagnated, leading to rising oil prices and fears of permanent oil scarcity. These fears, together with the high prices, receded with the unforeseen emergence of a new supply source: tight oil. This licentiate thesis investigates unconventional tight oil production and its impacts on world oil supply in terms of resource availability and oil market dynamics, and in turn briefly discusses some possible wider economic, political and environmental implications of these impacts. The thesis is based on three papers. The first investigates the usefulness of bottom-up modelling by a retrospective study of past oil projections. The second looks at how unconventional tight oil production can be modelled on the well level using decline curve analysis. The third derives typical production parameters for conventional offshore oil fields, a growing segment of conventional production and a useful comparison to tight oil. The results show that tight oil production has increased resource availability significantly, as well as introduced a fast responding marginal supply source operating on market principles rather than political ones. The emergence of tight oil production has altered OPEC’s strategic options and led to a period of lower and less volatile oil prices. However, this condition of world oil supply can only last as long as the unconventional resource base allows, and, at the same time, total fossil fuel consumption will have to fall to limit climate change. It is concluded that this breathing space with lower oil prices could be used as an opportunity to develop and implement policy for an efficient managed decline of global oil use in order to achieve the dual goals of increased human economic welfare and limited climate change, and in the process preempt any future oil supply shortage. Unconventional tight oil production can both help and hinder in this endeavor. Accurate models and analyses of oil production dynamics and impacts are therefore crucial when maneuvering towards this preferred future.

Num mundo onde a competitividade ultrapassa as fronteiras nacionais, onde perturbações políticas e econômicas têm uma repercussão imediata em todo o globo, as empresas precisam cada vez estar preparadas para reagir rapidamente. A dinâmica dos movimentos globais não mais permite que as empresas e organizações possam esperar muito tempo para tomar medidas adaptativas. As respostas devem ser rápidas. O nível de incertezas onde a empresa opera deve ser melhor entendido, de forma que os riscos de uma tomada de decisão inadequada possam ser mitigados. Contudo, melhor que reagir aos fatos é buscar se antecipar aos mesmos. Mas a antecipação requer que os eventos possíveis sejam analisados, não apenas quanto aos seus possíveis impactos, mas também quanto à sua probabilidade de ocorrência. Este trabalho tem como objetivo maior propor um modelo de projeção e análise das demonstrações financeiras das empresas, segundo uma visão não apenas determinística, mas empregando técnicas probabilísticas, que permitam aos gestores das empresas passarem pelo processo de tomada de decisão com um nível de informação que permita a eles terem uma idéia muito clara do nível de risco que envolve as suas decisões. E este modelo torna isto possível ao se utilizar da metodologia de Monte Carlo. Esta metodologia permite que as variáveis críticas de uma empresa sejam tratadas a partir das suas distribuições de probabilidades de ocorrência. Assim, preços de produtos e insumos, variáveis externas tais como a taxa de juros, a taxa câmbio e a taxa da inflação podem ser avaliadas dentro de uma expectativa de ocorrência, como variáveis estocásticas, e não mais como constantes no problema. Com isto, podemos simular os resultados de uma empresa, que serão disponibilizados ao gestor segundo sua distribuição de probabilidade. Este processo permitirá que o gestor possa tomar quaisquer decisões, sejam de investimentos, de política de preços, de endividamento, etc., com um nível de informação muito mais adequado do que quando ele dispõe apenas de informações determinísticas com análise de sensibilidade, visto que esta última nada informa quanto à probabilidade de ocorrência do evento. / In a world where the competitiveness crosses the national borders, where political and economical instabilities have an immediate impact in the whole globe, the companies need to be prepared to give a fast response. The dynamics of the global movements no more allows that the companies and organizations take a long time to implement new alternatives. The answers should be fast. The uncertainties about company environment should be better understood, so the risks of a wrong decision can be mitigated. However, better than to react to the facts, is to anticipate them. The anticipation requests that the possible events must be deeply understood, not just as for their possible impacts, but also for its probability of occurrence. This work has as objective to propose a simulation and analysis financial model of companies, considering probabilistic techniques to allow managers go through decision process with a level of information sufficient enough to permit them to have a clear understanding about the risks involved in their decision. This model turns this possible through the utilization of Monte Carlo’s methodology. This methodology allows the critical variables of a company to be treated as random variables. Prices of products and macroeconomics variables such as interest rate, rate exchange and rate of inflation can be considered as random variables and not as constants in the model. The results of a company will be available to the managers with a statistic treatment and a probabilistic analysis. This process will facilitate the managers decisions process about investments, price policies, loans and others critical subjects to the future of the company with a much more appropriate level of information.

Orientadora: Profa. Dra. María Cleofé Valverde Brambila / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Federal do ABC, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ciência e Tecnologia Ambiental, 2016. / Este estudo teve como objetivo analisar o comportamento futuro (near-future, de 2017 a 2039) da chuva e vazão na Bacia Hidrográfica do Alto Tietê (BHAT) e nas sub-bacias que a compõem: Tietê-Cabeceiras, Billings-Tamanduateí, Pinheiros-Pirapora, Penha-Pinheiros, Cotia-Guarapiranga e Juqueri-Cantareira. Para isso, empregou-se o Modelo Climático Global Atmosférico de Alta Resolução (AGCM) MRI-JMA desenvolvido pelo Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) do Japão e pela Japonese Meteorological Agency (JMA), para o cenário de emissões A2, pertencente ao Quarto Relatório do Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR4). As saídas do modelo MRI-JMA possuem uma resolução de grade de 20 km na horizontal. Foram também utilizadas séries históricas de dados fluviométricos, pluviométricos e de temperatura do ar oriundos principalmente da Agência Nacional de Águas (ANA) e Operador Nacional do Sistema Elétrico (ONS). Para aferir a destreza do modelo MRI-JMA em representar a climatologia na bacia, foram avaliadas e corrigidas as saídas de precipitação e temperatura do modelo para o período presente (1979-2003). Posteriormente, com os dados observados de temperatura, foi calculada a Evapotranspiração Potencial (ETP) das sub-bacias, pelo método de Thornthwite. A fim de estimar as vazões futuras dos exutórios das sub-bacias foi construído um modelo hidrológico empírico, baseado na equação simplificada do balanço hídrico, por meio das variáveis observadas de precipitação, vazão e ETP. A partir das saídas de precipitação e temperatura do modelo climático MRI-JMA corrigidas para o período futuro (near-future), foram determinadas as vazões futuras (2017-2039). Os resultados das projeções do modelo indicam que a BHAT poderá ter um acréscimo na precipitação (5,9 mm) e temperatura (0,86ºC) média mensal em relação à climatologia, para o período de 2017-2039. Dentre todas as sub-bacias, Pinheiros-Pirapora e Cotia-Guarapiranga terão a máxima anomalia positiva de temperatura (1,48ºC) em julho. Já a sub-bacia Juqueri-Cantareira apresentará a maior anomalia positiva (27,18 mm) e negativa (-13,01 mm) de precipitação em dezembro e outubro, respectivamente. Em relação à vazão mensal futura na BHAT, para o período de 2017 a 2039, está projetada uma elevação durante a primavera (19,6%) e o verão (13,7%) e um decréscimo durante o inverno (-9%) e outono (-7%). O exutório da BHAT exibirá a máxima anomalia positiva em dezembro (44,89 m³/s) e a maior anomalia negativa em junho (-28,06 m³/s). A sub-bacia Juqueri-Cantareira terá o maior decréscimo da vazão no inverno (-18%), sendo que terá um aumento do deflúvio durante a primavera (30,7%) e o verão (17%). Deste modo, apesar das incertezas inerentes dos modelos climáticos e suas projeções, é fundamental gerenciar os recursos hídricos da bacia tendo em vista uma provável ampliação da variabilidade sazonal futura e diminuição da vazão durante o outono e o inverno. / The aim of the present study was to analyse the future behavior (near-future, of 2017-2039) of rainfall and streamflow in the Upper Tietê River Basin (BHAT) and the sub-basins that compose it: Tietê¿Cabeceiras, Billings¿Tamanduateí, Pinheiros¿Pirapora, Penha¿Pinheiros, Cotia¿Guarapiranga e Juqueri-Cantareira. For this purpose, the Global Climate Model Atmospheric High Resolution (AGCM) MRI-JMA developed by the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) of Japan and the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) for the emissions scenario A2 was used, belonging to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR4). The choice of this model is due to the high spatial resolution of 20 km horizontal, allowing capture hydro-climatological characteristics of the sub-basin. We used observed database mainly of rainfall, temperature and streamflow, obtained from the National Water Agency (ANA) and the National Electric System Operator (ONS). To assess the ability of MRI-JMA model to represent the climatology in the sub-basins were evaluated and corrected the model outputs for precipitation and temperature variables for the present period (1979-2003). Posteriorly, with the data observed temperature was estimated evapotranspiration potential (ETP) of the sub-basins with the method of Thornthwite. With a view to estimate future streamflow of sub-basins, it was built an empirical hydrological model based on simplified water balance equation, through the variables observed precipitation, streamflow and ETP. From the precipitation and temperature outputs of MRI-JMA model corrected for the future period, it was determined the future streamflow (2017-2039). The results of the model projections indicate that the Upper Tietê River Basin may have an increase in precipitation (5.9 mm) and temperature (0.86ºC) monthly average relative to climatology, for the period 2017-2039. Among all sub-basins, Pinheiros-Pirapora and Cotia-Guarapiranga will have the maximum positive anomaly temperature (1.48ºC) in July. Already, the sub-basin Juqueri-Cantareira will present the largest positive anomaly (27.18 mm) and negative (-13.01 mm) of rainfall in December and October, respectively. Regarding the future streamflow in BHAT, for the period 2017-2039, it is projected an increase in streamflow during the spring (19.6%) and summer (13.7%) and a decrease in streamflow during the winter (-9%) and fall (-7%). The exutório of BHAT will feature the largest positive anomaly in December (44.89 m³/s), and the largest negative anomaly in June (-28.06 m³/s). The sub-basin Juqueri-Cantareira will have the greatest decrease of streamflow in winter (-18%), and will increase during the spring (30.7%) and summer (17%). Thus, despite the uncertainties, it is important to manage the water resources of the basin considering a possible future expansion of the seasonal variability and decreased streamflow during the fall and winter.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-11T19:32:23Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2009-03-02Bitstream added on 2014-06-13T19:02:58Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 dantas_sm_dr_fran.pdf: 4403584 bytes, checksum: 6bd1ce3a3fba5fffec4619921338836f (MD5) / O cerne dessa tese é compreender a constituição do urbano e seu corolário na cidade de Uberabinha, atual Uberlândia, em Minas Gerais, no final do século XIX e primeiras décadas do século XX, tendo como corpus documental as atas da Câmara Municipal e relatórios do Executivo, os periódicos locais, as produções de memorialistas e imagens fotográficas. A emancipação de povoados e arraiais do Triângulo Mineiro significou a possibilidade de autonomia política e a perspectiva de construção de cidades modernas, regidas pelos princípios da civilidade e do progresso. Em Uberabinha, os grupos sociais dominantes lideraram o processo de configuração do espaço urbano com a implementação de serviços e a modernização dos equipamentos e, à medida que a face da cidade se transformava, enunciavam um discurso de convencimento para validar as representações e as práticas que postulavam devessem ser cumpridas. Por meio de estratégias discursivas, políticas, sociais e imagéticas buscaram-se formar cidadãos que se pautassem pelos princípios de civilidade. Fruto de concepções liberais, o projeto de civilização executado construiu uma cidade marcada pelos conflitos entre os diversos grupos sociais que disputavam espaço para expressar suas representações, excluindo outras possibilidades e ocultando contradições que, vez ou outra, vinham à baila, manchando a imagem dominante. Em certa medida, a elite local logrou êxito ao criar um conjunto de práticas que visavam viabilizar seus interesses, presentes nos códigos de postura e regulamentos diversos, nos artigos dos periódicos, na defesa da educação como garantia de civilização. O trinômio modernidade, civilidade e progresso se sustentou de modo ambíguo, incorporando novos componentes e conservando elementos tradicionais para tornar Uberabinha/Uberlândia uma cidade de destaque em meio às demais da região / This study aims at understanding the constitution of the urban aspect and its corollary in the city of Uberabinha, currently called Uberlândia, located in the state of Minas Gerais, at the end of nineteenth century and first decades of twentieth century. The research instruments of this paper include a data corpus which contain the minutes of Uberlândia City Hall, as well as, the reports from the Executive, the local journals, the memorialist productions and the photographic images. The emancipation of villages and small towns of Triângulo Mineiro denoted the possibility of policy autonomy and the perspective of building modern cities based on the principles of civility and progress. Beside this, in Uberabinha, the dominant social groups lead the process of urban space configuration with the implementation of services and the modernization of equipments and, while the city was being changed, the speech that was enunciated illustrated the convincing strategies to validate the representations and the practices they postulated should be done. Considering this point of view, the citizens were formed through discursive, politicals, socials and imagetic strategies, guided by the civility principles. As a result of liberal conceptions, the civilization project executed built one city marked by conflicts among the various social groups that fought for opportunities to express their representations, excluding other possibilities and hiding contradictions that, sometimes, came to light, vilifying the image of dominant people. Somehow, the local elite got success when they created a set practices that aimed at reaching its interests, inserted in the posture codes and various regulations, in journals, in the defense of education as guarantee of civilization. Therefore, the three aspects, modernity, civility and progress supported themselves in an ambiguous way, incorporating new components and ... (Complete abstract click electronic access below)