In this thesis, I first investigate the relation between the aggregate unemployment rate and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and outflows. To study this relationship, I use a panel data set that contains 45 (developed and developing) countries observed from 1987 through 2008, and I employ Arellano and Bonds generalized methods of moments (ABGMM) estimation method for dynamic panel data. My results show that FDI inflows and outflows are not determinants of the aggregate unemployment rate. In addition, in line with macroeconomic theory, the previous level of aggregate unemployment has a positive impact on the current level of aggregate unemployment. Again, as macroeconomic theory suggests, my results show that per capita real gross domestic product (RGDP) has a negative effect on the current level of aggregate unemployment. Second, I study the long-run relationship between exports and per capita gross domestic product (instrumented by total population) using a panel data set of 51 countries from 1970 through 2008. To study this relationship, I employ the dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) estimation method. I find that the percentage of exports in nominal gross domestic products (GDP) is sensitive to changes in the populations of host countries and, hence, to the changes in their GDP. In addition, my results show that the agreement on trade related investment measures increased the percentage of exports in the nominal GDP of developed host countries more than it did in developing host countries.

O objetivo desse trabalho é analisar a influência que fundamentos internos e fatores externos exercem sobre a taxa de juros nominal dos títulos soberanos de longo prazo nos países emergentes. A base de dados engloba 13 países ao longo de 33 trimestres entre 2006 e 2014. A metodologia utilizada aborda as técnicas econométricas mais recentes para tratar dados macroeconômicos. O modelo estimado é o Pooled Mean Group desenvolvido por Pesaran, Shin e Smith (1999). O modelo consegue separar as variáveis que afetam o nível de equilíbrio da taxa de juros das que exercem efeito apenas no curto prazo. Na melhor especificação apresentada, os resultados indicam que as variáveis que causam flutuações de curto prazo na taxa de juros dos países emergentes são a taxa de juros livre de risco (+0,3), a taxa de curto prazo (+0,4) e o déficit do governo americano (+0,1). Já as variáveis que afetam o nível de equilíbrio são a taxa de juros livre de risco (+0,5), a aversão ao risco dos investidores (+0,1), o saldo em conta corrente (-0,3), a inflação (+0,1), a abertura econômica (-0,04) e a dívida bruta (efeito positivo não linear). Por fim, ao analisar exclusivamente o caso brasileiro, nosso modelo indica que se o país tivesse mantido os fundamentos internos em linha com a média dos outros emergentes desde o final de 2006, o Brasil iria chegar ao final de 2014 com uma taxa de juros nominal de longo prazo de 6,1%, 6 p.p. abaixo do valor efetivamente observado que foi de 12,1%. / The aim of this study is to analyze the influence that internal fundamentals and external factors have on long-term sovereign bond yields in emerging markets. The database covers 13 countries over 33 quarters between 2006 and 2014. The methodology addresses the latest techniques to deal with macro panels, such as panel unit root and panel cointegration tests. The estimated model is the Pooled Mean Group developed by Pesaran, Shin e Smith (1999). This model can separate the variables that affect the interest rate equilibrium from the ones that only have an effect in the short-run. In the best specification presented, the results indicates that in the short-run the variables that affects the interest rates in emerging markets are the risk free interest rate (+0.3), the short term interest rate (+0.4) and the American government deficit (+0.1). The variables that affects the equilibrium level are the risk free interest rate (+0.5), risk aversion (+0.1), current account balance (-0.3), inflation (+0.1), trade openness (-0.04) and gross debt (non-linear positive effect). Finally, by examining only the Brazilian case, our model indicates that if the country had maintained the internal fundamentals in line with the average of other emerging markets since the end of 2006, Brazil would reach the end of 2014 with a long-term interest rate of 6.1%, 6 p.p. below the actual value of 12.1%.

In this paper we examine the short and long-term relations between stock price, book value and residual income.  We employ a panel error correction model, estimated with Engle & Granger’s (1987) two-step procedure and the single equation methodology. The models are estimated with FE-OLS and the MG-estimator. We find that stock prices adjust previous periods equilibrium error. Further, we find that book value has short and long-term effects on stock prices. Finally, this paper finds mixed results regarding residual incomes impact on stock prices. The MG-estimator finds evidence for a short-term relationship, while the FE-OLS provides insignificant or weak support for short-term effects. FE-OLS and MG-estimator find insignificant or weak support regarding residual incomes long-term effects.

O objetivo desse trabalho é analisar a influência que fundamentos internos e fatores externos exercem sobre a taxa de juros nominal dos títulos soberanos de longo prazo nos países emergentes. A base de dados engloba 13 países ao longo de 33 trimestres entre 2006 e 2014. A metodologia utilizada aborda as técnicas econométricas mais recentes para tratar dados macroeconômicos. O modelo estimado é o Pooled Mean Group desenvolvido por Pesaran, Shin e Smith (1999). O modelo consegue separar as variáveis que afetam o nível de equilíbrio da taxa de juros das que exercem efeito apenas no curto prazo. Na melhor especificação apresentada, os resultados indicam que as variáveis que causam flutuações de curto prazo na taxa de juros dos países emergentes são a taxa de juros livre de risco (+0,3), a taxa de curto prazo (+0,4) e o déficit do governo americano (+0,1). Já as variáveis que afetam o nível de equilíbrio são a taxa de juros livre de risco (+0,5), a aversão ao risco dos investidores (+0,1), o saldo em conta corrente (-0,3), a inflação (+0,1), a abertura econômica (-0,04) e a dívida bruta (efeito positivo não linear). Por fim, ao analisar exclusivamente o caso brasileiro, nosso modelo indica que se o país tivesse mantido os fundamentos internos em linha com a média dos outros emergentes desde o final de 2006, o Brasil iria chegar ao final de 2014 com uma taxa de juros nominal de longo prazo de 6,1%, 6 p.p. abaixo do valor efetivamente observado que foi de 12,1%. / The aim of this study is to analyze the influence that internal fundamentals and external factors have on long-term sovereign bond yields in emerging markets. The database covers 13 countries over 33 quarters between 2006 and 2014. The methodology addresses the latest techniques to deal with macro panels, such as panel unit root and panel cointegration tests. The estimated model is the Pooled Mean Group developed by Pesaran, Shin e Smith (1999). This model can separate the variables that affect the interest rate equilibrium from the ones that only have an effect in the short-run. In the best specification presented, the results indicates that in the short-run the variables that affects the interest rates in emerging markets are the risk free interest rate (+0.3), the short term interest rate (+0.4) and the American government deficit (+0.1). The variables that affects the equilibrium level are the risk free interest rate (+0.5), risk aversion (+0.1), current account balance (-0.3), inflation (+0.1), trade openness (-0.04) and gross debt (non-linear positive effect). Finally, by examining only the Brazilian case, our model indicates that if the country had maintained the internal fundamentals in line with the average of other emerging markets since the end of 2006, Brazil would reach the end of 2014 with a long-term interest rate of 6.1%, 6 p.p. below the actual value of 12.1%.

本研究目的在於探討投資等級債券信用價差是否存在外溢效果。信用價差是建構各種信用衍生性金融商品的基礎，惟目前學術界及業界都著眼在信用價差的拆解。信用價差可拆解成預期違約損失、稅的溢酬及信用風險溢酬。投資等級債券的信用價差來自於預期違約損失、稅的溢酬的部分較少，絕大多數來自於信用風險溢酬。信用風險溢酬係系統性影響信用價差的因素，此因素造成不同投資等級債券的信用價差間具有共整合的現象，進而引發外溢效果。然而並無人對於信用價差外溢效果作一深入探討。本研究利用目前學術界盛行的Panel模型的研究方法，對各種投資等級的債券的信用價差進行Panel Unit Root Tests、Panel Cointegration Tests及Panel Spillover Effect Tests，以求發現債券信用價差外溢效果存在與否的證據。 本文以iBoxx Index成份債券作為研究標的，利用Panel研究方法得到以下結論: 1.根據研究結果顯示，各種信評等級的債券的信用價差存在單根問題。 2.不同投資等級信評債券的信用價差擁有共整合關係。 3.不同投資等級信用評等的債券間信用價差外溢效果存在。且愈是相 鄰信評等級債券的外溢效果愈為顯著，例如BBB等級信用價差發生變動引發信評AAA等級信用價差變動的幅度便沒有AA等級信用價差變動引發AAA等級信用價差變動來得強烈。外溢效果係不對稱，當最高投資等級信評發生變動時，最低投資等級債券變動最為激烈;而最低投資等級信評發生波動時，最高投資等級債券發生變動的幅度就較小。 4.本研究支持不同債信評等的債券存在同向的外溢效果。 / This paper investigates the spillover effect in the investment grade bonds using the recently developed Panel Unit Root Tests, Panel Cointegrations Tests, Panel FMOLS and Panel DOLS techniques. Investment grade bonds’ credit spreads are found to be nonstationary and to be cointegrated in panels. This paper finds evidence of spillover effects.