Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-11T19:32:05Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2009-12-07Bitstream added on 2014-06-13T20:42:36Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 scomparin_alx_dr_jabo.pdf: 5977037 bytes, checksum: 8ab4f778519f1e5f248fa28ab2c97182 (MD5) / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / A maioria dos organismos vivos são ectotérmicos, com exceção de pássaros e mamíferos. A temperatura corporal (Tc) de um ectotérmico é resultado da troca de calor entre o organismo e o meio ambiente e esta afeta a maioria das funções biológicas. Por exemplo, os insetos, para mudarem de estágio de desenvolvimento, requerem um mínimo de energia acumulada (calor). Para as pragas, a maioria dos modelos fenológicos é baseada na relação entre características do de desenvolvimento (ex., crescimento) e a temperatura do ar. Todavia, a utilização destes modelos ainda é limitada em razão da falta de exatidão na estimativa das temperaturas máximas e mínimas de desenvolvimento para a maioria das pragas. O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar a importância dos fatores: resistência a inseticidas e termoperíodo, assim como discutir os métodos de modelagem para o inseto endofítico Cydia pomonella. Para tal, se submeteu larvas e pupas de 4 linhagens diferentes desta espécie: sensível (Sv), resistente a diflubenzuron (Rdfb), resistente a deltametrina (Rdelta) e resistente ao granulovírus (Rgv), a 4 termoperíodos (15°C-20°C, 20°C-25°C, 25°C-30°C e 30°C- 35°C). Os parâmetros avaliados foram: taxa de crescimento, mortalidade, razão sexual e temperatura base, mínima e ótima de desenvolvimento do inseto. Com o auxílio dos valores obtidos nestes parâmetros, modelos lineares e curvilineares foram desenvolvidos, comparados entre si e com modelos obtidos por autores a temperaturas constantes. Os resultados mostraram que em condições de temperaturas variáveis a resistência implica em mudanças nos parâmetros biológicos (taxa de crescimento, mortalidade e razão sexual) e que o termoperíodo acelera o crescimento de larvas e pupas de carpocapsa. Com o auxílio dos modelos obtidos, foi realizada uma simulação do período de desenvolvimento de C. pomonella utilizando... / The majority living organisms are ectotherms except birds and mammals. The body temperature (Tb) of an ectotherm results from the energy balance between this the organisms and its environment. The Tb determines most of the biological functions. For instance, a minimum of heat accumulation by insects is needed to pass from a development stage to another during their life cycle. For insect pests, most of phenological models are based on life history trait (e.g., growth) and air temperature. Unfortunately, the use of phenological models is limited since there is a lack of accuracy estimatives in maximum and minimum temperatures. The aim this work was to study the importance of two factors ((i) the insecticide resistance, (ii) the thermoperiod) and the modelling methods to design a phenological model for the the endophyte insect Cydia pomonella. Four strains of C. pomonella: (i) Sv (susceptible strain), (ii) Rdfb (resistant to diflubenzuron), (iii) RD (resistant to deltamethrin), RGv (resistant to C. pomonella granulovirus) and 4 thermoperiods (15°C-20°C, 20°C-25°C, 25°C-30°C e 30°C-35°C) were used. Measured parameters were the development rate, the mortality, the sex ratio, the Toptm, Tmin and Tmax of the development rate. Based on the obtained values for each parameter, linear and curvilinear phenological models were made and compared between them and with those obtained at constant temperature by some authors. Thus, in fluctuating thermal conditions, it was shown that insecticide resistance involved aftereffects on life-history traits as the development rate, the mortality and sex ratio. Also, it was shown that the C. pomonella development rate at larval stage is higher in thermoperiodic conditions. With the models the development of C. pomonella was simulated using air and micro-habitat temperatures for two areas of apple orchards in Europe (e.g., Valais in Switzerland and la Drôme...(Complete abstract click electronic access below)

Resumo: A maioria dos organismos vivos são ectotérmicos, com exceção de pássaros e mamíferos. A temperatura corporal (Tc) de um ectotérmico é resultado da troca de calor entre o organismo e o meio ambiente e esta afeta a maioria das funções biológicas. Por exemplo, os insetos, para mudarem de estágio de desenvolvimento, requerem um mínimo de energia acumulada (calor). Para as pragas, a maioria dos modelos fenológicos é baseada na relação entre características do de desenvolvimento (ex., crescimento) e a temperatura do ar. Todavia, a utilização destes modelos ainda é limitada em razão da falta de exatidão na estimativa das temperaturas máximas e mínimas de desenvolvimento para a maioria das pragas. O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar a importância dos fatores: resistência a inseticidas e termoperíodo, assim como discutir os métodos de modelagem para o inseto endofítico Cydia pomonella. Para tal, se submeteu larvas e pupas de 4 linhagens diferentes desta espécie: sensível (Sv), resistente a diflubenzuron (Rdfb), resistente a deltametrina (Rdelta) e resistente ao granulovírus (Rgv), a 4 termoperíodos (15°C-20°C, 20°C-25°C, 25°C-30°C e 30°C- 35°C). Os parâmetros avaliados foram: taxa de crescimento, mortalidade, razão sexual e temperatura base, mínima e ótima de desenvolvimento do inseto. Com o auxílio dos valores obtidos nestes parâmetros, modelos lineares e curvilineares foram desenvolvidos, comparados entre si e com modelos obtidos por autores a temperaturas constantes. Os resultados mostraram que em condições de temperaturas variáveis a resistência implica em mudanças nos parâmetros biológicos (taxa de crescimento, mortalidade e razão sexual) e que o termoperíodo acelera o crescimento de larvas e pupas de carpocapsa. Com o auxílio dos modelos obtidos, foi realizada uma simulação do período de desenvolvimento de C. pomonella utilizando... (Resumo completo, clicar acesso eletrônico abaixo) / Abstract: The majority living organisms are ectotherms except birds and mammals. The body temperature (Tb) of an ectotherm results from the energy balance between this the organisms and its environment. The Tb determines most of the biological functions. For instance, a minimum of heat accumulation by insects is needed to pass from a development stage to another during their life cycle. For insect pests, most of phenological models are based on life history trait (e.g., growth) and air temperature. Unfortunately, the use of phenological models is limited since there is a lack of accuracy estimatives in maximum and minimum temperatures. The aim this work was to study the importance of two factors ((i) the insecticide resistance, (ii) the thermoperiod) and the modelling methods to design a phenological model for the the endophyte insect Cydia pomonella. Four strains of C. pomonella: (i) Sv (susceptible strain), (ii) Rdfb (resistant to diflubenzuron), (iii) RD (resistant to deltamethrin), RGv (resistant to C. pomonella granulovirus) and 4 thermoperiods (15°C-20°C, 20°C-25°C, 25°C-30°C e 30°C-35°C) were used. Measured parameters were the development rate, the mortality, the sex ratio, the Toptm, Tmin and Tmax of the development rate. Based on the obtained values for each parameter, linear and curvilinear phenological models were made and compared between them and with those obtained at constant temperature by some authors. Thus, in fluctuating thermal conditions, it was shown that insecticide resistance involved aftereffects on life-history traits as the development rate, the mortality and sex ratio. Also, it was shown that the C. pomonella development rate at larval stage is higher in thermoperiodic conditions. With the models the development of C. pomonella was simulated using air and micro-habitat temperatures for two areas of apple orchards in Europe (e.g., Valais in Switzerland and la Drôme...(Complete abstract click electronic access below) / Orientador: Odair Aparecido Fernandes / Coorientador: Marc Saudreau / Coorientador: David G.Biron / Coorientador: Hervé Sinoquet / Banca: Benoit Sauphanor / Banca: Mario Eidi Sato / Banca: Nilza Maria Martinelli / Banca: Sergio Antonio de Bortoli / Doutor

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Il controllo in agricoltura delle malattie causate da patogeni fungini può essere effettuato attraverso l’uso di modelli di previsione che si basano comunemente sul monitoraggio in tempo reale di una serie di variabili di input. Queste informazioni generalmente combinano dati metereologici locali con modelli matematici costruiti allo scopo di predire il rischio di malattie. Il processo decisionale si attiva quando un avvertimento sul potenziale rischio viene riconosciuto da parte dei modelli. Diversi modelli epidemiologici sono stati sviluppati e validati nel mondo. Negli Stati Uniti d’America, ad esempio, l’università della California ha sviluppato un supporto decisionale on-line per gestire la coltura secondo i principi della lotta integrata (Integrated Pest Management - IPM). Ciascun agricoltore può consultare il proprio database informativo e prendere decisioni sui trattamenti da effettuare basandosi su dati sito-specifici. Le difficoltà sorgono quando non sono disponibili dati meteorologici da stazioni poste nelle vicinanze del sito in studio o per le zone montane caratterizzate da una forte variabilità altimetrica. Inoltre i dati meteorologici disponibili possono presentarsi in formato non adeguato rispetto alle esigenze del modello previsionale. Con l’intento di avere una visione regionale e una maggiore accuratezza nella gestione del controllo delle malattie, l’obiettivo della tesi è stato l’utilizzo contemporaneo di modelli epidemiologici (Lobesia botrana e Erysiphe necator, agente causale dell’oidio della vite) con modelli fenologici (cultivar di vite Chardonnay) utilizzando parametri meteorologici come la temperatura per creare mappe a livello regionale, a frequenza giornaliera e con una risoluzione spaziale di 200 metri. L’utilizzo contemporaneo di entrambi i modelli aiuta ad essere più precisi nel consigliare interventi colturali nel periodo di sensibilità dell’ospite nei confronti del patogeno o della malattia in modo da poterne stimare il reale rischio di diffusione o insorgenza. Dopo aver calibrato e validato i modelli in Trentino-Alto Adige (Nord Italia) con dati metereologici locali, basandoci sul modello del cambiamento climatico HadAM3 dell’Hadley Centre (Pope et al., 2000),l’andamento climatico previsto è stato proiettato e statisticamente portato. in scala, utilizzando lo scenario A2 e B2. L’algoritmo statistico utilizzato per ridurre la scala giornaliera di risoluzione è chiamato “transfer function” (Eccel et al., 2009). Per completare l’analisi, è stato inoltre utilizzato lo scenario ridimensionato di ENSEMBLES attraverso l’uso di set di dati provenienti da 49 stazioni meteorologiche della FEM e dal pacchetto “RMAWGEN” (Cordano et al., 2012) creato con il software statistico R. (Gentleman et al., 1997). Per mappare i modelli è stata sviluppata una semplice piattaforma modulare WEB-GIS chiamata ENVIRO. I moduli sono “Open Source” e seguono gli standard internazionali dell’“Open Geospatial Consortium” (OGC) e sono stati implementati come segue: i) enviDB è il database per i dati spazio-temporali, ii) enviGRID permette agli utenti di navigare attraverso i dati e i modelli nello spazio e nel tempo, iii) enviMapper è l’interfaccia web per prendere le decisioni, consiste in uno stato dell’arte per mappare la vulnerabilità del cambiamento climatico a diverse scale di aggregazione nello spazio e nel tempo, iv) enviModel è l’interfaccia web per i ricercatori a cui viene fornita una piattaforma per processare e condividere modelli di rischio ambientali utilizzando il “web processing Technologies” (WPS) seguendo gli standard OGC. Con l’obiettivo di diventare ancora più accurati nelle previsioni dei volumi per i trattamenti contro insetti e malattie, in accordo con la direttiva 2009/128/EC, il seguente lavoro dimostra che il sensore LIDAR può essere utilizzato per caratterizzare la geometria della pianta della vite e stimare l’area fogliare (LAI) ad ogni stadio di crescita. Inoltre permette di calcolare il volume da applicare (Tree Row Volume -TRV) visualizzato nelle mappe 3D in GRASS. (Neteler et al., 2008, Neteler et al., 2012). / Control of agricultural pests and diseases is often based on forecasting models commonly based on real time monitoring of inputs variables. This information generally combines meteorological local databases and mathematical models designed to forecast pest and disease risk. The decision process starts when an alert or a potential risk event from the outputs of the models is issued. Epidemiological models based on local datasets have been created and validated worldwide, for example in USA, the University of California developed the online Integrated Pest Management (IPM) program where each farmer can consult with his own database and make the pest management decision based on site-specific conditions. Difficulties arise when no data from a close weather station are available, in mountain areas where weather conditions highly depend on the altimetry, or if data are not in a standard format to feed the model. In a view of having a regional vision and an increased accuracy in the pest control management, the goal of this thesis was to run contemporaneously epidemiological (the pest Lobesia botrana and the pathogen causing Powdery mildew Erysiphe necator) and phenological models (grapevine cv. chardonnay) using environmental variables as temperature and to create maps at regional level, with 200 meters of resolution and daily scale or frequency. Running both models together helps to be more precise in the sensibility period of the host versus the pest or the disease and to understand the real final risk. After calibrating and validating the models in the Trentino-Alto Adige Region (Italy) with local weather data, the forecasted climate was projected and statistically downscaled, based on the output of the Hadley Centre climate model - HadAM3 (Pope et al., 2000) under scenarios A2 and B2. The statistical downscaling algorithm was “transfer function method” (Eccel et al., 2009) at daily resolution. In order to complete the analysis, the downscaled scenario from ENSEMBLES was also used with the datasets of 49 weather stations from FEM and the “RMAWGEN” packages (Cordano et al., 2012) created for this project in R statistical open source software (Gentleman et al., 1997). In order to map the models, a friendly modular WEB-GIS platform called ENVIRO was developed. Modules are Open Source, follow international Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) standards and were implemented as follows: i) enviDB is the database for spatial temporal data, ii) enviGRID allows users to navigate through data and model in space and time, iii) enviMapper is the web interface for decision makers, a state of the art client to map vulnerability to climate change at different aggregation scales in time and space; finally, iv) enviModel is the web interface for researchers that provides a platform to process and share environmental risk models using web geo-processing technologies (WPS) following OGC standards. With the aim of being even more accurate in pests and diseases spraying volumes and according with the Directive 2009/128/EC, the current work shows that the LIDAR sensor can be used to characterize the geometry of the grapevine and the Leaf Area Index (LAI) at each growth stage and calculate the Tree Row Volume (TRV) visualized in 3D maps in GRASS (Neteler et al., 2008, Neteler et al., 2012).

In dieser Arbeit wurden die Veränderungen der agrarklimatologischen Bedingungen im Zuge des Klimawandels für ausgesuchte Sauerkirschanbauregionen in Europa und Nordamerika untersucht. Es wird auf veränderte Risiken (Spätfrost, Hitzewellen, Wassermangel) hingewiesen, die durch nachhaltige, praxisorientierte und ökonomisch vertretbare Anpassungsmaßnahmen (Überdachung, Frostschutz, Bewässerung, Anbausystem, Wahl der Sorte und Unterlage, etc.) begrenzt werden können. Der Klimawandel kann neben Risiken aber auch Chancen für den Sauerkirschanbau eröffnen. Höhere Temperaturen und eine längere Vegetationsperiode können regional differenziert zu günstigeren Anbaubedingungen führen. Ein besonderer Schwerpunkt wurde auf die Entwicklung phänologischer Modelle gelegt, mit denen Veränderungen im Entwicklungsrhythmus der Sauerkirschgehölze analysiert werden konnten. Dafür wurden acht Modelle zur Vorhersage des Blühbeginns und Blühendes entwickelt. Weitere phänologische Stadien konnten mit dem Modell von Zavalloni et al. (2006) berechnet werden. Die Untersuchungen haben ergeben, dass sich der Blühbeginn unter geänderten Klimabedingungen verfrüht, aber nur geringe Verkürzungen der Zeiträume zwischen den phänologischen Stadien zu erwarten sind. Zu den gefürchteten Witterungsschäden im Obstbau gehört Spätfrost, der zu hohen Ertragsverlusten führen kann. Im Zuge des Klimawandels können sich die Häufigkeit und Stärke der Fröste ändern. Die Frostwahrscheinlichkeit während der untersuchten Entwicklungsphasen von Sauerkischgehölzen könnte in diesem Jahrhundert in Rheinland-Pfalz und Eau Claire abnehmen, während sich die Verhältnisse in den anderen Anbaugebieten nur geringfügig ändern. In einem zweiten Schritt wurden die Ertragsverluste durch Frost bestimmt. Hierbei hat sich ergeben, dass die Frostschäden in den untersuchten Anbauregionen wahrscheinlich geringer werden. Allerdings differieren die Ergebnisse zwischen den Berechnungen mit beobachteten und modellierten Temperaturen oft stark. / This thesis investigates the changes in agro-climatic conditions for selected growing region in Europe and North America under current and future climate conditions. The overall aim of the study was to identify possible risks (spring frosts, heat waves, water shortages), which can be limited by sustainable, practically oriented and economically viable adaptation measures (hail- and frost-protection, irrigation, cultivation system, choice of variety and rootstock). Besides risks, climate change can provide new opportunities. Higher temperature levels and extended growing season lengths could regionally differentiated improve the growing conditions. Particular focus was given to developing phenological models, used to investigate shifts in spring phenology of sour cherry trees due to climate change. Therefore, eight models to predict the beginning and end of blossom were optimized and validated. Further phenological stages were calculated with the model by Zavalloni et al. (2006). The results show an earlier onset in the beginning of sour cherry blossom under future climate conditions, while the length of the period between the phenological stages only shortens slightly. Spring frosts are feared weather hazards in orchards which can cause substantial yield losses. The changing climate conditions could influence the frequency and strength of spring frosts. In the course of this century the spring frost probability is likely to decrease in Rhineland-Palatinate and Eau Claire, while only slight changes are expected in the other growing regions. In the second step, yield losses caused by spring frost were calculated. The frost damages on sour cherries in the investigated growing regions will probably decrease. However, the yield losses calculated with observed and modeled temperatures often differ strongly.