Does a leader's psychology affect his/her likelihood of initiating a militarized interstate dispute? The study of leadership psychology has continuously found support for the central assumption that leaders matter in explaining a state's foreign policy behavior. However, many of these research projects have relied on small-sample case studies and experimental methods that have limited generalizability. In this paper, I use two variables drawn from the research program on leadership trait analysis (distrust and need for power) in a multivariate large-n study to explain the initiation of militarized interstate disputes (MIDs). 1,601 cases are drawn from the Correlates of War MID data set. First, using an ANOVA model, I demonstrate that MID initiators have higher average scores for both distrust and need for power and that this difference is statistically significant. Then, using logistic regression, I demonstrate that distrust and need for power have statistically significant positive effects on the likelihood of MID initiation. I conclude by comparing the predicted probabilities of the psychological variables of interest with territorial contiguity. All of these methods demonstrate that the psychological traits of leaders have an important effect on the likelihood of MID initiation.

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Zhao Yibin. / Thesis submitted in: November 2001. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2002. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 103-111). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / Abstract --- p.I / ACKNOWLEDGEMENT --- p.V / Table of Contents --- p.VIII / List of Tables --- p.IX / List of Figures --- p.X / Chapter Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter 1.1 --- Research background and problem statement --- p.1 / Chapter 1.2 --- Research objectives --- p.6 / Chapter 1.3 --- Methodology --- p.7 / Chapter 1.4 --- Significance of this study --- p.9 / Chapter 1.5 --- Organization of the thesis --- p.10 / Chapter Chapter 2 --- "Literature review: wildfire behavior simulation, Web GIS and public participation GIS" --- p.11 / Chapter 2.1 --- Introduction --- p.11 / Chapter 2.2 --- Investigating wildfire behavior --- p.12 / Chapter 2.3 --- Modeling wildfire with GIS --- p.20 / Chapter 2.4 --- Emergence of the Web GIS --- p.27 / Chapter 2.5 --- New agenda from public participation --- p.28 / Chapter 2.6 --- Summary --- p.31 / Chapter Chapter 3 --- System design: requirements analysis and feasibility analysis --- p.34 / Chapter 3.1 --- Introduction --- p.34 / Chapter 3.2 --- Analysis of functions requirement --- p.35 / Chapter 3.3 --- A host of solutions --- p.41 / Chapter 3.4 --- Summary --- p.52 / Chapter Chapter 4 --- Simulating the wildfire --- p.53 / Chapter 4.1 --- Physical Setting of experiment area and data preparation --- p.53 / Chapter 4.2 --- Adaptation and formularization of the Rothermel's fire behavior model --- p.60 / Chapter 4.3 --- Fire spreading algorithm --- p.66 / Chapter 4.4 --- Defining wildfire with Object Oriented Design (OOD) method --- p.71 / Chapter 4.5 --- Summary --- p.74 / Chapter Chapter 5 --- Participation process with interactive tools empowered by IT technologies --- p.76 / Chapter 5.1 --- Comprehending the problem in an interactive way --- p.76 / Chapter 5.2 --- Performing wildfire simulation --- p.81 / Chapter 5.3 --- Submitting of end users comments --- p.84 / Chapter 5.4 --- Discussion bulletin board --- p.94 / Chapter 5.5 --- Summary --- p.96 / Chapter Chapter 6 --- Discussions and conclusions --- p.98 / Chapter 6.1 --- Research limitations and discussions --- p.98 / Chapter 6.2 --- Conclusions --- p.99 / BIBLIOGRAPHY --- p.103 / Appendix 1 .Defining MapService with ArcXML --- p.112 / Appendix 2.Defining MapNotes with ArcXML --- p.112

The study examines Turkey&rsquo / s responses in the face of the formation of European Security and Defense Policy (ESDP). The political responses over ESDP have two dimensions. From the viewpoint of Turkey, at the beginning she intended to participate in the process of decision making structure of the ESDP. Therefore, it can be concluded that Turkey is not against the formation of the ESDP. However, as a non-EU European NATO member, Turkey&rsquo / s integration into European security and defense was welcomed but she was excluded from the strategic decision making structure of ESDP. As a result of this, formation of ESDP undermined the position of Turkey who has rights inherited over European security from Western European Union Associate and NATO Memberships. As Turkey was excluded from the decision making structure of ESDP, she put reservations to the EU-NATO cooperation as a NATO member. Secondly, from the viewpoint of European Union, she is trying to keep the decision making authority of ESDP in EU itself by excluding non-EU European states. Besides, Turkey&rsquo / s full integration into European Security and Defense Policy was made contingent to the Turkey&rsquo / s European Union membership. Turkey&rsquo / s EU membership process should not be linked with her full participation, including decision making structure of the ESDP. European defense developments were considered to be as a challenge to NATO and US superiority in Europe. Developments in European defense and Turkey&rsquo / s participation in this process were also examined in this study.

published_or_final_version / Public Administration / Master / Master of Public Administration

This thesis examines the critical factors leading to the 1948 decision by the United States government to extend recognition to the newly declared State of Israel. In the first of five chapters the literature on the recognition of Israel is discussed. Chapter II presents the theoretical foundation of the thesis by tracing the development of Charles Kegley's decision regime framework. Also discussed is the applicability of bureaucratic structure theory and K. J. Holsti's hierarchy of objectives. Chapters III and IV present the empirical history of this case, each closing with a chapter summary. The final chapter demonstrates the relevance and validity of the theoretical framework to the case and closes with a call for further research into the processes of foreign policy decision-making.

Thesis (MEd)--University of Stellenbosch, 2007. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Through policy document analyses and in-depth semi-structured interviews, this thesis examines the potential of higher education policy frameworks to engender quality university education in Malawian universities. Pertinent to the fast-growing higher education sector in Malawi is the connection between higher education policy frameworks and quality delivery of university education. Education policy frameworks in Malawi are mainly a response to the government’s broad policy of poverty alleviation. Thus this thesis argues that quality university education ought to contribute to poverty alleviation especially by assisting the country to achieve its Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and to implement the initiatives of the New Economic Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD). To engender quality university education that could help to alleviate poverty in Malawi, this thesis through Habermasian critical inquiry proposes that quality ought to be the corollary of defensible higher education policy frameworks, policy documents need to delineate quality parameters, access to university education needs to be increased and, inevitably, discursive or deliberative higher education policy making ought to be given primacy. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Aan die hand van beleidsdokumentontleding en diepgaande, semigestruktureerde onderhoude, ondersoek hierdie tesis die potensiaal van hoëronderwysbeleidsraamwerke om gehalte universiteitsonderrig in Malawiese universiteite teweeg te bring. Van besondere belang vir die snelgroeiende hoëronderwyssektor in Malawi is die verband tussen hoëronderwysbeleidsraamwerke en die lewering van gehalte universiteitsonderrig. Malawiese onderwysbeleidsraamwerke is hoofsaaklik 'n reaksie op die regering se omvattende armoedeverligtingsbeleid. Daarom voer hierdie tesis aan dat gehalte universiteitsonderrig tot armoedeverligting behoort by te dra, veral deur die land te help om sy millenniumontwikkelingsdoelwitte (MOD’s) te bereik en die inisiatiewe van die Nuwe Vennootskap vir Afrika-ontwikkeling (NEPAD) in werking te stel. Ten einde gehalte universiteitsonderrig teweeg te bring wat armoede in Malawi kan help verlig, doen hierdie tesis deur Habermasiese kritiese ondersoek aan die hand dat gehalte die uitvloeisel van verdedigbare hoëronderwysbeleidsraamwerke moet wees, dat beleidsdokumente gehaltegrense moet neerlê, dat toegang tot universiteitsonderrig verbeter moet word, en dat beredeneerde of oorwoë hoëronderwysbeleidbepaling onafwendbaar voorrang behoort te geniet.

本文題為俄羅斯與中國對伊朗核問題立場之比較研究。本文藉由「外交決策」理論，以及「政治系統論」和「層次分析法」，研究從俄羅斯的外交決策模式、國內外因素，探究俄羅斯對伊朗核問題之立場，以及，從中國的外交決策模式、國內外因素，探究中國對伊朗核問題之立場。最後，再比較俄羅斯與中國的外交決策模式、國內外因素，以及兩國的政策產出－伊朗核問題之立場，進行比較分析俄中對伊朗核問題立場和政策的異同之處為本文之研究目的。 在國際處理伊朗核問題的進程中，俄羅斯、中國對於伊朗核問題的立場可謂大致相同，他們皆主張「以外交手段進行和平談判」的立場。然而，不同的是俄中在決策過程中的背後動機與各自盤算的國家利益。俄羅斯採取「平衡政策」(balancing policy)，以伊朗為談判籌碼，換取美國釋出更多利多；而中國則是採取「拖延與削弱策略」(delay-and-weaken strategy)，以維護在伊朗的各項利益。 / This paper is a comparative study about the positon of Russia and China on the Iranian nuclear issue. We use the approach of “foreign policy decision making”, “political system theory” and “analytic hierarchy process” to study the formation of Russian and China’s foreign policy decision making, the factors that affect the policy decision making process, the stand of Russia and China toward the Iran’s nuclear issue, and finally, we compare the defference of those two countries. On the issue of Iran’s nuclear, Russia and China take approximately the same attitude.Both of them advocate that every one should take peace negotiations instead of sanctions. The differences between Russian and China’s foreign policy decision making is that Russia trys to use the balancing policy, and takes advantage of Iran’s nuclear issue, making the U.S. to release more benefits for Russia,while China takes the delay-and-weaken strategy, making effort to protect their benefits in Iran.