This thesis investigates the economic and military policies hegemons pursue while experiencing relative decline. Based upon the rising costs of leadership associated with hegemony, this thesis establishes that both systemic and domestic environments equally influence the hegemon's policy-making. Furthermore, the paper contends that hegemons do practice strategic planning during relative decline, in an effort to adjust its commitments and resources to the environment. Relative success or failure in maintaining the international system and thus adjusting for decline depends on how decision-makers compensate for two prevailing variables: threat of challengers and availability of allies. This study offers a predictive theoretical model for interpreting the dynamics of grand strategy formulation, compensating for the influences of the domestic environment three historical case studies, the Dutch Republic, Britain and the United States, test the accuracy and validity of the model. This thesis finds that periods of strong leadership, void of threat, while augmented by external balancing best support a hegemon's relative decline.

Colonial conservation emerged as colonial conservationists perceived the threat of deforestation, climatic change and famine. The sense that there were limits to nature's capacity to meet human demands, led to colonial conservationism which portrayed nature as separated from human life. Protected areas (PA's), both forest and game reserves, were created that excluded local people in terms of both access and management. In South Africa the National Forests Act 84 of 1998 has created new conditions in which there is a greater opportunity for communities to benefit from indigenous forests, which apart from their other uses are a valuable resource from the point of view of ecotourism. This study thus seeks to assess moves from exclusivist to community based forms of environmental decision-making (EDM) at Dlinza Forest Nature Reserve. This study provides an example of an ecotourism project started during the democratic period in South Africa and at the height of the global move to community conservation. First however it traces the management history of the forest in order to assess change in the management style over time. The study investigates rural people's attitudes towards the forest and it was found that although the forest was preserved for many years, the rural people still feel much attached to it as a result of the beliefs they have about it. The study contrasts different visions of the forest in terms of competing use and non-use values, and demonstrates that each group exercised its will and attempted to display "ownership" of the forest through a number of activities undertaken at the forest. An analysis of the public participation followed in terms of the ecotourism project was undertaken to determine the extent to which the rural community was involved. Theoretical models of environmental decision-making were applied in order to identify the mode of decisionmaking used historically and in the present. The results of the study show that poor rural people are still marginalized in EDM despite the new philosophies of PA management and the democratising shifts taking place in the country. Resistance to the policies and regulations of the reserve has been observed and this may lead to severe degradation of the resources that the reserve is meant to protect. The study thus recommends strengthening locally based EDM via partnerships as partnerships do not only provide relief for the consequences of conflict, they also strive for a win-win situation. The study concluded that greater involvement of the rural community requires a change in the mindset of conservation authorities, in particular with regard to the issue of representivity in EDM. / Thesis (M.Sc.)-University of Natal, Durban, 2004.

In the search to reduce the various divides between the developed and the developing world, Information and Communication Technology (ICT) is seen as an enabler in resource-constrained environments. However, the impact of ICT for Development (ICT4D) implementations is contested, and the ability to facilitate sustained change remains elusive. Sustainability emerged as a key lesson from the failure of early ICT4D projects, and has served as a focal point in facilitating ICT4D success. However, interpretation of the concepts of sustainability and sustainable development seems to be multiple and disconnected from practice, and is rarely translated into a useful construct for guiding project-level actions. The focus of international development is gradually shifting from donated aid towards capability and choice, empowerment, and per-poor initiatives. However, the reality remains that multiple organisations with varying levels of power, resources, and influence determine the outcomes and the sustainability of benefits from a development intervention. This research investigates mechanisms to sustain benefit by exploring the interface between various role players through the lens of decision-making. It builds on the view that the value created by the virtual ‘organisation’ of stakeholders in an ICT4D implementation results from the sum of its decisions, and develops a framework for decision-making with a view on sustaining benefits. The work follows a Design Science Research methodology, comprising an iterative process for the development, testing, and improvement of the framework based on three literature reviews, two case studies, and an expert review. The research answers the primary research question, namely: What are the elements of a framework that support strategic decision-making for the design and implementation of ICT4D interventions in resource-constrained environments, in support of sustained benefit? The knowledge contribution is primarily at the concept and methodological level. In addition to framework development, the decision problem in ICT4D is defined, andthe concept of sustained benefit is proposed as a means of operationalizing sustainability. This research illustrates the role of decision concepts in structuring the complexity of ICT4D problems. It introduces an alternative perspective into the debate on sustainability in ICT4D, and provides a basis for the future development of theory. / Information Systems / D. Litt. et Phil. (Information Systems)

This study examines the claim that individuals misinterpret the mean of a dataset (displayed as a scatterplot) more when the convex hull of the dataset is less representative of the data. In addition, this study also tests whether outliers in the data can predict the magnitude of error that individuals make in interpreting the mean of the dataset. Lastly, the study investigates whether individuals’ interpretations are predicted better by the mean of the convex hull than by the full dataset’s mean. The method used to conduct these investigations is through a survey, followed by several linear regression analyses. Applications of this study include improving the communication of data in economic policy and business contexts, along with broader applications in extending models that heavily rely on agents’ interpretations of information: especially bounded rationality and social norm-based models. The results show that convex hull unrepresentativeness correlates positively with error in mean interpretation; however, that the convex hull mean is not predictive of the interpretations’ direction. Overall, the study contributes to the field of visual information interpretation by investigating the effect of data structure on its interpretation – an unexplored area of research. This is done while initiating the concretization of bounded rationality in economics, by exploring the idea that individuals perceive a general shape of the information presented to them rather than a detailed, full picture. This can lead to misinterpretations whenever the general shape (convex hull) is not representative of the dataset.

No description available.

It is often not clear how values are incorporated into policy decision-making about health systems. This is perhaps not surprising given the complexity of decision-making about health systems, the wide range of values prioritized (and advocated for) by different stakeholders, the broad array of sources for or mechanisms available to identify values, and the many ways in which values can drive policy decisions, as well as the reality that policymakers often do not want to be explicit about the values used in policy decision-making process. Using synthesis and qualitative research methods, this dissertation investigates the role of values in policy decision-making about health system financing in Latin America and contributes to the understanding of this field by providing insights for policy and research. The dissertation moves from a general and descriptive focus to a specific and explanatory focus. First, a critical interpretive synthesis was used to develop a theoretical framework that identifies how and under what conditions values inform policy decision-making about health system financing in Latin American countries. In chapters 3 and 4, the focus narrows by using an embedded multiple-case study design that analyzes two specific decisions in each of Chile and Colombia. Frameworks that explain government agenda setting and policy development and the theoretical framework developed in chapter 2, are used to analyze these decisions. The second study (chapter 3) is a discourse analysis which qualitatively assess how declared values inform the four decisions in Chile and Colombia. The third study (chapter 4), draws on in-depth qualitative interviews to understand how and why policymakers and stakeholders use declared and undeclared values in those four decisions in Chile and Colombia. The research chapters build on each other and make substantive, methodological and theoretical contributions. The dissertation provides a rich understanding of the roles of values in health system financing decisions through a critical interpretive synthesis and two qualitative studies, adding to the evidence base that stakeholders and policymakers can draw from when making or shaping policy decisions. These studies collectively build an understanding about what values inform the health policy process in Latin America, how those values work, under what conditions they come to be influential, how they are applied in real decisions, and why policymakers and stakeholders perceive that values play a role in real decisions. All of this evidence has contributed to the development a new theoretical framework about the roles of values in health systems. / Thesis / Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) / Values are important at all stages of the policy process. However, it is often not clear how they are incorporated into policy decision-making about health systems. In Latin America, the study of the role of values and how they inform the prioritization, development, and implementation of policies in different contexts, is an emerging field. This dissertation addresses key gaps in understanding by: 1) developing a framework, which can be used as a tool by policymakers and stakeholders to identify which values support or compete with their initiatives, how to make initiatives more socially supported, and how to focus policies according to the goals of the government and the health system; 2) analyzing how, based on media reports and governmental and non-governmental documents, values have informed two health system financing decisions in each of Chile and Colombia; and 3) examining the views and experiences of policymakers and stakeholders about how and why values were used in decision-making processes related to the same two policy decisions in each of Chile and Colombia.

Most studies of the use of conventional military force by the United States in the twentieth century tend to characterize the decision making process in terms of a unitary state and a unitary presidential decision maker. One alternative to this approach is the Bureaucratic Politics paradigm proposed by Graham Allison. To test the explanatory power of this decision making model in the post-Vietnam era, this thesis applies the specific propositions of Graham Allison's "Governmental Politics Model" concerning the use of military force, to selected case studies. In an attempt to determine the explanatory power of Allison's Governmental Politics model in the wake of Vietnam, this thesis draws on case studies ranging from the Dominican Republic intervention to the recent invasion of Panama. This thesis seeks to measure the theory to present reality. / Master of Arts

Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2003. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The research report investigates the theoretical foundation of the understanding of decision-makers at local government level of the term "development", with specific reference to local government as development agent and Local Economic Development. The choice of theoretical model by these decision-makers to conceptualise their understanding has historical and analytical antecedents, and secondly, the decision-maker is faced with a basic dualism in developmental thinking, ie. the emphasis on universalism (global competitiveness) on the one hand and the need for specificity (local economic development) on the other. The theoretical principles and assumptions on which the neoliberal and market-orientated approach to development is based are incorporated in the macroeconomic policy approach 'Growth, Employment and Redistribution' in South Africa. This approach has recently overshadowed the social welfarist developmental approach represented by the 'Reconstruction and Development Program' or Sustainable Human Development. The basis for specific policy formulation and intervention strategies are found in the theoretical assumptions, goals and objectives in each of these alternate approaches to development. The research design for the study is primarily qualitative. A semi-structured interview schedule is applied in directing in-depth interviews with identified central decisionmakers in metropolitan and larger "B" municipalities. The research design and process is constructed around three themes based on current and historic analysis of development thinking as a means to address poverty and inequality: theme 1 - theoretical understanding of the term development, Economic Growth in the formal sector versus Sustainable Human Development; theme 2 - the nature and relevance of participation by civil society in the Local Economic Development (LEO) process; and theme 3- Local Economic Development and the role of infrastructure investment, land use planning and zoning as intervention strategy. A benchmark position is developed on local government as development agent and LEO, using various sources, for example, interview with Director-General in the Department of Provincial and Local Government dealing with Local Economic Development, the Constitution of the Republic of South Africa and legislative acts and policy papers relevant to LED. This position is compared with the position held by local government decision-makers dealing with LED. The analysis of the information collected suggests that the theoretical perspective and policy framework on development, participation and strategies to address inequality and poverty, ie Sustainable Human Development (researchers title) held by the Department of Provincial and Local Government (DPLG) is not compatible with the definition and understanding of the majority of the decision-makers at local government level dealing directly with LED. The notion of participative development with anti-poverty strategies focussed on poor urban citizenry at the local level is not seen as the relevant theoretical or applied focus by developmental decision-makers at municipal level. In addition, limited knowledge is available to local government decision-makers on both formal and informal economic activity. In this regard, de facto leadership has already been handed over to formal-economy organisations and institutions. The idea of using land-use planning and zoning regulations to reorientate economic activity to low- and informal housing settlements and the reconstitution of low-and informal housing as sites of manufacture utilising flexible specialisation principles was positively received. However, the respondents were either not knowledgeable about these principles, for example; Globalisation of production and flexible production processes, or had not considered them in relation to their planning, land use or zoning and development functions. In the light of the above, the notion of local government as development agent with specific reference to addressing poverty and inequality utilising the Local Economic Development process as envisaged by the Department of Provincial and Local Government does not have the majority support of decision-makers at city and metro level. The majority of respondents defined the process of consultation as limited to formal economic sectors that were/could be competitive in the new global economy. The majority of decision-makers hold the view that the redefinition and location of sites of economic activity could be delegated to these formal sector organisations and institutions. Their common understanding of development and the related intervention strategies was based on formal sector growth and related job creation strategies, as well as the "trickle-down" of resources and opportunities to the informal sector. If they wish to remain relevant in this context the Department of Provincial and Local Government has to develop intervention strategies to reorientate and redefine the theoretical and applied definition of development held by the decision-makers especially with regard to Local Economic Development. If these issues are not addressed the form and shape of South Africa cities and metros will be based on the entrenchment and escalation of economic dualism and exclusion of the poor from any developmental decision-making and strategies. This has serious implications for the development of local democracies and developmental institutions based on the formulation and understanding of local conditions and circumstances of poverty and inequality and holds serious implications for social stability in the South African metros and municipalities in the future. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die navorsingsverslag ondersoek die teoretiese begronding van die begrip wat besluitnemers op plaaslike regeringsvlak het van die term "ontwikkeling "met spesifieke verwysing na plaaslike regering as ontwikkelingsagent en Plaaslike Ekonomiese Ontwikkeling. Die keuse van teoretiese modelle deur hierdie besluitnemers het historiese en analitiese voorlopers en tweedens, word die besluitnemer in die gesig gestaar deur 'n basiese dualisme in ontwikkelingsdenke, die klem op universalisme (globale kompeterendheid) aan die een kant en die behoefte aan spesifiekheid (plaaslike ekonomiese ontwikkeling) aan die ander kant. Die teoretiese beginsels en aannames waarop die neoliberale en markgeorienteerde benaderings tot ontwikkeling berus, word gei"nkorporeer in die makro-ekonomiese benadering "Groei, Werkverskaffing en Herverdeling" (GEAR) in Suid Afrika. Hierdie benadering het onlangs die sosiale welsynsontwikkelingsbenadering, wat verleenwoordig is deur die "Heropbou en Ontwikkelingsprogram" (HOP) of Volhoubare Menslike Ontwikkeling, in die skadu gestel. Die basis vir spesifieke beleidsvorming en intervensiestrategiee word gevind in die teoretiese aannames, doelwitte en doelstellings in elk van hierdie altematiewe benaderings tot ontwikkeling. Die navorsingsontwerp vir hierdie studie is primer kwalitatief. 'n Semi-gestruktureerde onderhoudskedule word toegepas am rigting te gee aan in-diepte onderhoude met geidentifiseerde sentrale besluitnemers in metropolitaanse en groter "B" munisipaliteite. Die navorsingsontwerp en proses is gekonstrueer rondom drie temas wat gebaseer is op huidige en historiese analise van ontwikkelingsdenke as 'n manier waarop armoede en ongelykheid aangespreek kan word: tema 1 - teoretiese begrip van die term ontwikkeling, ekonomiese groei in die formele sektor teenoor Volhoubare Menslike Ontwikkeling; tema 2 - die aard en relevansie van deelname deur die siviele samelewing en die Plaaslike Ekonomiese Ontwikkelingsproses (PEO); en tema 3 - Plaaslike Ekonomiese Ontwikkeling en die rol van infrastruktuurbelegging, grondgebruikbeplaning en sonering as 'n intervensie-strategie. 'n Beginpuntposisie word ontwikkel oar plaaslike regering en PEO deur gebruik te maak van verskeie bronne, byvoorbeeld, onderhoude met die Direkteur-Generaal in die Deparlement van Provinsiale en Plaaslike Regering gemoeid met Plaaslike Ekonomiese Ontwikkeling (PEO) , die Grondwet van die Republiek van Suid Afrika en wetgewing en beleidskrifte relevant tot PEO. Hierdie posisie word vergelyk met die posisie wat ingeneem word deur plaaslike regeringsbestuurbesluitnemers gemoeid met PEO. Die analise van die inligting wat ingesamel is suggereer dat die teoretiese perspektief en beleidsraamwerk oor ontwikkeling, deelname en strategiee om ongelykheid en armoede aan te spreek, die Volhoubare Menslike Ontwikkeling (navorserstitel) wat gehuldig word deur die Departement van Provinsiale en Plaaslike Regering (DPPR) nie versoenbaar is met die definisie en begrip van die meerderheid van die besluitnemers op plaaslike regeringsvlak wat direk gemoeid is met PEO nie. Die idee van deelnemende ontwikkeling met anti-armoede strategiee wat gefokus is op arm stedelike burgers op plaaslike vlak word nie deur die ontwikkelingsbesluitnemers op munisipale vlak beskou as die relevante oftoegepaste fokus nie. Bykomend is beperkte kennis tot beskikking van plaaslike regeringsbesluitnemers oor beide formele en informele ekonomiese aktiwiteite. In hierdie verband is de facto leierskap alreeds oorhandig aan formele ekonomiese organisasies en instellings. Die idee van die gebruik van grondgebruik- en soneringsregulasies om ekonomiese aktiwiteite tot lae en informele behuisingsnedersetfings te herorienteer en die hersamestelling van lae en informele behuising as plekke vir vervaardiging deur gebruik te maak van buigbare spesialiseringsbeginsels is goed ontvang. Die respondente was egter nie ingelig oor hierdie beginsels, of hulle het weggelaat om hierdie beginsels in berekening te bring by hul beplanning, grondgebruik of sonering en ontwikkelingsfunksies. In die lig van bogenoemde het die idee van plaaslike regering as ontwikkelingsagent met spesifieke verwysing tot die aanspreek van armoede en ongelykheid, deur gebruik te maak van die Plaaslike Ekonomiese Ontwikkelingsproses, soos in die vooruitsig gestel deur die Departement van Provinsiale en Plaaslike Regering, nie die meerderheidsteun van besluitnemers op staats- en metrovlak nie. Die meerderheid van die respondente het die proses van beraadslaging gedefinieer as beperk tot die formele ekonomiese sektore wat kompeterend was of kan wees in die nuwe globale ekonomie. Die meerderheid van hierdie besluitnemers is van mening dat die herdefiniering en plasing van plekke van ekonomiese aktiwiteite gedelegeer kan word aan hierdie formele sektororganisasies en instellings. Hierdie gedeelde begrip van ontwikkeling en verbandhoudende intervensie-strategiee was gebaseer op groei in die formele sektor en verbandhoudende werkskeppingstrategiee, asook die "afsyfering" van bronne en geleenthede na die informele sektor. As dit hul wens is om in hierdie konteks relevant te bly, moet die Oepartement van Provinsiale en Plaaslike Regering intervensiestrategiee ontwikkel om die teoretiese en toegepaste definisie van ontwikkeling, wat gehuldig word deur besluitnemers, veral met betrekking tot Plaaslike Ekonomiese Ontwikkeling te herorienteer en te herdefineer. Indien hierdie aangeleenthede nie aangespreek word nie sal die vorm en fatsoen van Suid-Afrikaanse stede en metros gebaseer wees op die verskansing en uitbreiding van ekonomiese dualisme en die uitsluiting van die armes van enige ontwikkelingsbesluitneming en strategie. Oit het ernstige implikasies vir die ontwikkeling van plaaslike demokrasie en ontwikkelingsinstellings gebaseer op die formulering en begrip van plaaslike toestande en omstandighede van armoede en ongelykheid en hou ernstige implikasies in vir die sosiale stabiliteit in die Suid-Afrikaanse metros en munisipaliteite in die toekoms.

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / A dissertação objetiva analisar a influência da Islamofobia no processo decisório em política externa nos Estados Unidos após a data de 11 de setembro de 2001 por meio de sua apropriação por atores sociais considerados como potencialmente influentes no referido processo. A Islamofobia será conceituada a partir de um medo cultural que converte as culturas islâmicas em uma fonte de ameaça. Alinhando-se a uma perspectiva teórica que aponta para a força criativa dos discursos, se procederá à análise de alguns discursos ilustrativos para se sugerir a construção da ideia de ameça islâmica, bem como as formas através das quais o medo inspirado por tal concepção de uma ameaça islâmica alcançou as instâncias decisórias em política externa nos Estados Unidos. Por intermédio de uma análise de conteúdo que se utilizará de uma bibliografia de apoio multidisciplinar, serão abordados temas relativos à problemática de se representar as culturas, à dimensão social do medo, e às diretrizes gerais da política externa dos Estados Unidos após os Atentados Terroristas de 11 de Setembro, considerando que o desenvolvimento de tais questões subsidiará o alcance do objetivo principal do trabalho. Trata-se, em última instância, de um estudo que busca conjugar considerações sobre a política externa dos Estados Unidos com uma análise antropológica acerca da problemática das culturas, expressa a partir da conversão de uma cultura determinada em uma fonte de ameaça. Nesse sentido, a dissertação pode ser caracterizada como de natureza exploratória, uma vez que busca situar um tema pouco explorado no horizonte teórico, sobretudo em estudos sobre política externa. / The thesis intends to show the circulation of Islamophobia in the foreign policy decision making process in the United States after September 11, 2001, through its appropriation by social actors considered to be potentially influential in said process. We conceptualize Islamophobia as a cultural fear that converts islamic cultures in a threat source. By aligning with a theoretical perspective that points out the criative force of discourses, we will analyze some illustrative discourses in order to suggest the discursive construction of the islamic threat, so that we can indicate that the fear inspired by the conception of a islamic threat has reached the foreign policy decision-makers in the United States. Through a content analysis that will rely on a multidisciplinar literature, we will approach subjects such as the problem of representing cultures, the social dimension of fear, and the general guidelines of US foreign policy after the September 11 attacks, considering that such questions will subsidize the achievement of the main objective.It is ultimately a study that intends to articulate considerations on United States foreign policy with an anthropological analysis about the problem of cultures, expressed as the conversion of cultures in a threat. In this sense, we consider it to be an exploratory thesis that seeks to situate a subject little explored in theoretical horizon, especially in studies about foreign policy.

本論文旨在論述中國大陸學術界在中共外交政策的決策過程中所扮演的角色，並聚焦在值得外界特別關注的個案─中國大陸的歐洲研究學界與中共的歐盟政策。在面對愈來愈複雜的外交關係環境下，無論是在正式或非正式的層面，有更多外圍組織或人員被納入中共的外交決策結構之中，其中最貼切的例子就是學術界。隨著中國大陸地區外交相關科系或研究機構的演變、多元性和優質化的發展，其對外交政策之決策過程與範圍的潛在影響力正在增長。學者與其相關的研究機構透過各種可能影響的途徑、層次和來源，來鞏固其研究的影響力。中國大陸歐洲研究的領域目前正蓬勃發展，有些傑出的專家經常被約見來提供建言或評論。除此之外，2003年中國政府公布了中共的歐盟政策官方文件，這是中共有史以來唯一宣布過的外交政策文件，其展現中歐關係的重要性。本研究除了將論文中所界定的學術影響力框架應用於該歐洲研究的個案之外，也提供學界對此一領域主要研究範圍和學術論述的一個初步調查，以及其對中共的歐盟政策決策上實務性的關聯。 / This thesis discusses the role of academia in foreign policy-decision making in the People’s Republic of China, considering in particular the case of European Studies academia and China’s European Union policy, which merits greater scrutiny by outside observers. Faced with ever more complex foreign relations, the structure of Chinese foreign policy making is incorporating a growing number of external actors at both formal and informal levels. Academic circles are a case in point; as foreign policy research institutes evolve, diversify and optimise, their potential influence within policy making processes and circles is expanding in scope, and academics and their respective institutes are able to consolidate the impact of their research through a range of pathways, levels, and sources of influence. The European Studies field in China is robust and certain noteworthy experts are regularly called upon for advice and comment. What’s more, China’s only ever foreign policy paper in 2003 dealt with European Union policy, demonstrating the significance of Sino-European relations. In addition to applying the framework of academic influence identified herein to the case of the European Studies field, this thesis also provides a preliminary investigation of some of the field’s key research issue areas and current academic discourse, as well as connections with China’s European Union policy decisions in practice.