A presença de uma série de usos que envolvem o consumo intensivo da água é consequência direta do intenso processo de industrialização e urbanização, bem como do crescimento populacional. As estações de tratamento de esgoto funcionam como uma barreira ambiental aumentando os múltiplos usos das águas de um manancial. Esta melhoria na qualidade reduz as doenças de veiculação hídrica que é abastecida por estas águas. Visando contribuir com a melhor visualização do assunto, propõe-se analisar a evolução da qualidade das águas durante 29 anos no rio Paraíba do Sul, considerando o impacto do crescimento populacional e os efeitos advindos da implantação das ETEs na extensão paulista do rio. Os parâmetros selecionados foram oxigênio dissolvido, demanda bioquímica de oxigênio, demanda química de oxigênio, fósforo e série de nitrogênio, além do índice de qualidade das águas, índice de qualidade das águas para fins de abastecimento público, índice de qualidade das águas para proteção da vida aquática e das comunidades aquáticas e índice de estado trófico, obtidos no Relatório de Qualidade das Águas Interiores do Estado de São Paulo, publicado anualmente pela CETESB. Os resultados obtidos indicam que a redução do aporte de esgoto doméstico sem tratamento nas águas, quando priorizado os trechos onde o impacto atinge maior amplitude associado à morfologia do rio, a recuperação da qualidade das águas, em termos de DBO, DQO é OD, alcança maior extensão. Em termos de nitrogênio e fósforo, é necessário adotar medidas de redução na fonte / There are a number of uses that involve the water consumption that are direct consequences of the industrialization and urbanization intensive process, as well as population growth. The sewage treatment plants serve as environmental barriers increasing the multiple uses of water. This improvement in water quality reduces the risk of spreading diseases to the public that are served by these waters. To contribute with a better view of the subject, it is proposed to analyze the evolution of water quality within 30 years in the flow of the Paraiba do Sul River, considering the impact of population growth and the effects arising from the implementation of sewage treatment plants in the extension of the river. The selected parameters to be analyzed were dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand, chemical oxygen demand, phosphorus and nitrogen series, besides the water quality index (IQA), the water quality for public supply index (IAP), the water quality for protection of aquatic life and communities index (IVA) and trophic state index (IET), obtained in the Inland Waters Quality of São Paulo State Report, published annually by CETESB. The results indicate that reducing the inflow of untreated sewage waters, when prioritizing the stretches where the impact reaches higher amplitude associated with the morphology of the river, the recovery of water quality in terms of BOD, COD and OD, reaches greater extension. In terms of nutrients, such as nitrogen and phosphorus, it is necessary to adopt measures to reduce them at source

<p>Population viability analysis (PVA) is commonly used in conservation biology to predict population viability in terms of population growth rate and risk of extinction. However, large data requirements limit the use of PVA for many rare and threatened species. This thesis examines the possibility of conducting a matrix model-based PVA for plants with limited data and provides some practical recommendations for reducing the amount of work required. Moreover, the thesis applies different forms of matrix population models to species with different life histories. Matrix manipulations on 37 plant species revealed that the amount of demographic data required can often be reduced using a smaller matrix dimensionality. Given that an individual’s fitness is affected by plant density, linear matrix models are unlikely to predict population dynamics correctly. Estimates of population size of the herb <i>Melampyrum sylvaticum</i> were sensitive to the strength of density dependence operating at different life stages, suggesting that in addition to identifying density-dependent life stages, it is important to estimate the strength of density dependence precisely. When a small number of matrices are available for stochastic matrix population models, the precision of population estimates may depend on the stochastic method used. To optimize the precision of population estimates and the amount of calculation effort in stochastic matrix models, selection of matrices and Tuljapurkar’s approximation are preferable methods to assess population viability. Overall, these results emphasize that in a matrix model-based PVA, the selection of a stage classification and a model is essential because both factors significantly affect the amount of data required as well as the precision of population estimates. By integrating population dynamics into different environmental and genetic factors, matrix population models may be used more effectively in conservation biology and ecology in the future.</p>

Population viability analysis (PVA) is commonly used in conservation biology to predict population viability in terms of population growth rate and risk of extinction. However, large data requirements limit the use of PVA for many rare and threatened species. This thesis examines the possibility of conducting a matrix model-based PVA for plants with limited data and provides some practical recommendations for reducing the amount of work required. Moreover, the thesis applies different forms of matrix population models to species with different life histories. Matrix manipulations on 37 plant species revealed that the amount of demographic data required can often be reduced using a smaller matrix dimensionality. Given that an individual’s fitness is affected by plant density, linear matrix models are unlikely to predict population dynamics correctly. Estimates of population size of the herb Melampyrum sylvaticum were sensitive to the strength of density dependence operating at different life stages, suggesting that in addition to identifying density-dependent life stages, it is important to estimate the strength of density dependence precisely. When a small number of matrices are available for stochastic matrix population models, the precision of population estimates may depend on the stochastic method used. To optimize the precision of population estimates and the amount of calculation effort in stochastic matrix models, selection of matrices and Tuljapurkar’s approximation are preferable methods to assess population viability. Overall, these results emphasize that in a matrix model-based PVA, the selection of a stage classification and a model is essential because both factors significantly affect the amount of data required as well as the precision of population estimates. By integrating population dynamics into different environmental and genetic factors, matrix population models may be used more effectively in conservation biology and ecology in the future.

The aim of this paper is to analyse the urban development in Dubai by means of the fourquadrant model, presented by DiPasquale and Wheaton, which represents the market for real estate use and assets. The focus is on factors such as economic growth, access to oil, population growth and the incentive of the government to promote developments in Dubai, to study how they affect the real estate market. It is observed how all these factors contribute to the expansion of the construction sector and thereby the stock of space. However, because Dubai's economy is independent of the oil sector, access to oil is solely assumed to contribute to a higher amount of disposable capital and therefore does not have any upward pressure on the rent and the price level as the remaining factors.

Population-level dynamics are affected by temporal variation in individual vital rates of survival and reproduction, which are in turn influenced by habitat-specific processes. Variation in habitat quality within a population’s range can drive movement of individuals between different areas, and so there may be a relationship between variation in vital rates and spatial heterogeneity in population growth (λ). I investigated this relationship for the feral horses (Equus ferus caballus) of Sable Island, Nova Scotia, Canada, from 2008−2010. The horses (n = 484 in September 2010) form a closed population that is free from human interference and predation. I analyzed annual population growth using age-structured projection matrix models parameterized with survival and fertility data collected from almost every female (98.7% of females). I found some evidence of temporal variation in growth during the two years I studied the population (λ2008−2009 = 1.065, λ2009−2010 = 1.117). Age structure appears to have converged to a stable age distribution, suggesting this growth rate has been sustained in the years leading up to the end of my study. Variation in vital rates of adult fertility and foal survival made the largest contribution to annual variation in population growth. Future growth is predicted to be most influenced by proportional changes in adult survival, which remained relatively unchanged between 2008 and 2010. The population can be stratified into three spatially distinct subunits found across a west−east longitudinal gradient of water resources (access to permanent ponds vs. ephemeral water sources and holes dug in sand). I assessed the existence of source-sink dynamics to determine if individual movements between subunits could explain spatial heterogeneity in population growth. I found that spatial heterogeneity in growth appears to be most influenced by immigration and emigration events between subunits. Evidence suggests that current growth of the overall Sable Island horse population is made possible by individual emigration from more productive into less productive subunits; in particular, a source presented in the west of the island where permanent water ponds are located.

Land is our planet’s scarcest resource. With all the combined advances in our civilizations and their respective technologies, we have yet as a society to fully understand our precarious situation within our diminishing livable planetary surface. We also live today within a world in constant stages of change. With rapid population growth on a global scale, and its resulting increases in urban density, our available usable living space is greatly becoming smaller and our lives more crowded and condensed. Following upon our urban centers, this thesis aims at exploring the effects of these global phenomena of overcrowding and overpopulation especially within the time remaining before we, as part of a developed society, witness the ground below our feet gradually disappear. Montreal City is one developed world urban center ready to receive this next evolutionary step in urban growth and it is historically no stranger to architectural experimentation. Expanding the city’s infrastructures through the third dimension will allow greater freedom in the urban sculpture of this future face of our growing urban worlds. This will be the insertion of a new population-absorbing building and urban typology. This will be the return of the megastructure and the revival of an old visionary architectural language that will advance the exploration of the impact of growth and urban concentration.

Land is our planet’s scarcest resource. With all the combined advances in our civilizations and their respective technologies, we have yet as a society to fully understand our precarious situation within our diminishing livable planetary surface. We also live today within a world in constant stages of change. With rapid population growth on a global scale, and its resulting increases in urban density, our available usable living space is greatly becoming smaller and our lives more crowded and condensed. Following upon our urban centers, this thesis aims at exploring the effects of these global phenomena of overcrowding and overpopulation especially within the time remaining before we, as part of a developed society, witness the ground below our feet gradually disappear. Montreal City is one developed world urban center ready to receive this next evolutionary step in urban growth and it is historically no stranger to architectural experimentation. Expanding the city’s infrastructures through the third dimension will allow greater freedom in the urban sculpture of this future face of our growing urban worlds. This will be the insertion of a new population-absorbing building and urban typology. This will be the return of the megastructure and the revival of an old visionary architectural language that will advance the exploration of the impact of growth and urban concentration.

Interactions between cyanobacteria and herbivorous grazers play an important role in mediating the responses of freshwater phytoplankton assemblages to nutrient enrichment and top-down manipulation. Negative consequences associated with these interactions include dangerous blooms of harmful blue-green algae that have been implicated in the sickness and death of fishes, livestock, and, in extreme cases, humans. Frequently cited mechanisms influencing the interactions between grazers and cyanobacteria include cyanobacterial toxicity and morphology. To tease apart the importance of these mechanisms, I used meta-analysis to quantitatively synthesize the available literature on this topic. In addition, I conducted several experiments using novel techniques to determine the effect that cyanobacterial secondary metabolites from the bloom-forming cyanobacterium,

Common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) are apex predators and indicators of localized ecosystem health. Accurate characterization of population demography is crucial to parameter predictions. However, descriptions of age growth investigations of odontocetes are limited to the postnatal life. In contrast, the modeled scenario for terrestrial mammalian growth has been described along a continuum of pre- and postnatal data. Few age distribution data exist for the western Gulf of Mexico despite the fact that life tables enable demographic comparisons among populations. The objective of this study was to characterize age, growth, and population-level behavior of bottlenose dolphins along Texas. This objective was accomplished by two discrete studies: age analysis, and population-level behavior. Teeth from 290 stranded individuals were extracted for the purposes of age determination. Curvilinear models (the Gompertz and the von Bertalanffy) were fit to postnatal length-at-age data. Fetal age was determined for 408 suspected fetal length records using validated fetal growth trends and empirical measurements from late-term fetuses. Growth analysis indicated that a Gompertz model fit length-at-age data better than a von Bertalanffy model. A postnatal Gompertz model explained less variation than a combined pre- and postnatal model (R2 = 0.9 and 0.94 respectively). The absolute growth rate and rate of growth decay tripled with the inclusion of fetal length and age data. In the second study, life tables were constructed for 280 individuals. Survivorship curves, mortality rates, intrinsic capacity for increase, and the population growth rate were calculated. Bottlenose dolphin mortality did not differ significantly by sex or age class. Survivorship was best characterized by a type III curve. Analyses indicated no substantial increase (r = -0.07), and that the population is not replacing itself in the next time-step (y = 0.93). Bottlenose dolphins conform to a number of eutherian mammalian trends: the production of precocial young, calving seasonality, and rapid fetal growth rate. Population level behavior suggests a population retraction possibly as a compensatory response to ecosystem perturbation rather than a population decline. Reproductive information will confirm population status and stability in the future. This study is the first to demonstrate a significant impact of cetacean fetal growth parameters on postnatal growth trajectory.

El primer capítol, titulat "PROMETENT FRACÀS: Retòrica Política i Empresatial com a Determinant de l'Èxit" estableix una relació negativa entre el número de promeses fetes per polítics i companyies i el seu conseqüent rendiment. Mostro que les empreses que fan poc ús del temps futur en els seus informes annuals superen significativament aquelles que l'utilitzen més. De la mateixa manera, en totes les eleccions presidencials dels E.U.A. des del 1960 fins el 2004, el candidat que va fer un menor ús del futur durant els debats televisats va guanyar el vot popular. Mostro que la freqüència en que s'usa el futur a les frases està fortament correlacionat amb la freqüència de fer promeses i que aquesta última pot ser modelada en un marc de teoria de jocs. Paraules clau: eficiència de mercat, anomalies de preus, cheap talkEl segon capítol, "Valorant Contractes d'Assegurança de la Hipoteca en Economies de Mercat Emergents", tracta de l'aplicació d'opcions reals per a posar preus a contractes d'asseguraça de la hipoteca. Deselvolupem un nou mètode basat en opcions per a l'avaluació de contractes d'assegurança de la hipoteca en forma tancada en una economia en la qual els agents són neutrals al risc. Mentre el mètode d'avaluació proposat és general i pot ser usat en qualsevol mercat, pot ser particularment útil en economies de mercat emergentsen les quals altres mètodes existents poden ser inapropiats o són massa difícils d'implementar degut a la manca de dades relevants. És el primer article que desenvolupa un marc de preu d'opcions per a posar preus a contractes AH en forma tancada. D'aquesta manera podem obtenir resultats d'estàtiques comparatives de forma analítica en comptes de forma numèrica, com sol ser el cas en literatura relacionada. Aquest és el primer article que quantifica els efectes de la ineficiècia legal en el preu dels contractes AH i demostra que aquest efectes poden ser significants i s'haurien de tenir en consideració alhora de posar preu en aquest tipus de contractes. Paraules clau: assegurança d'hipoteca, quota de morositat, quota de prepagament, fòrmula black-scholes. El tercer capítol es titula "Conseqüències de l'increment de la longevitat en la riquesa, fertilitat i el creixament de la població". Presentem, solucionem i simulem numèricament un model simple que descriu les conseqüències del creixement de la longetivitat per a la taxa de fertilitat, el creixement de la població i la distribució de riquesa en societats desevolupades. Veiem les consequüències de l'ús repetit de tècniques d'extensió de la vida i mostrem que representen una nova matèria prima, la introducció de la qual influenciarà en gran mesura aspectes claus de l'economia i la societat en general. En particular, desvelem dues fases en el nostre model simplificat, que anomenem "mortal" i "immortal". / The first essay, titled "PROMISING FAILURE: Political and Company Rhetoric as a Determinant of Success" establishes a negative relationship between the number of promises made by politicians and companies and their consequent performance. I show that firms that make sparing use of the future tense in their annual reports significantly outperform those that use it more. Similarly, in all of the U.S. presidential elections from 1960 through 2004, the candidate who made less use of the future tense during the televised debates won the popular vote. I show that the frequency of using future-tense sentences is strongly correlated with the frequency of making promises and that the latter can be modeled within a game-theoretic framework. Keywords: market efficiency, pricing anomalies, cheap talkThe second essay, "Valuing Mortgage Insurance Contracts in Emerging Market Economies", deals with application of real options for pricing of mortgage insurance contracts. We develop a new option-based method for the valuation of mortgage insurance contracts in closed form in an economy where agents are risk neutral. While the proposed valuation method is general and can be used in any market, it may be particularly useful in emerging market economies where other existing methods may be either inappropriate or are too difficult to implement because of the lack of relevant data. It is the first paper to develop an option-pricing framework for pricing MI contracts in closed form. As a result, comparative static results can be obtained analytically instead of numerically, as is typically the case in the related literature. This is the first paper that quantifies the effects of legal inefficiency on the pricing of MI contracts and demonstrates that these effects can be quite significant and should be taken into account when pricing MI contracts. Keywords: mortgage insurance, default rate, prepayment rate, black-scholes formula, The third essay is titled "Consequences of increased longevity for wealth, fertility and population growth". We present, solve and numerically simulate a simple model that describes the consequences of increased longevity for fertility rates, population growth and the distribution of wealth in developed societies. We look at the consequences of the repeated use of life extension techniques and show that they represent a novel commodity whose introduction will profoundly influence key aspects of the economy and society in general. In particular, we uncover two phases within our simplified model, labeled as "mortal" and "immortal".