This dissertation examines the following research question: Which types of electoral rules chosen in post-conflict states best promote peace? And are those effects conditional upon other factors? I argue that the effects are conditional upon the types of political parties that exist in the post-conflict environment. Although this explanation is contrary to scholars that speak of political parties as products of the electoral system, political parties often predate the choice of electoral system. Especially in post-conflict states, political parties play an important role in the negotiation process and hence in the design of the electoral rules. I argue that the effects of electoral rules on peace duration are mitigated by the degree to which a party system is broad (nonexclusive) or narrow (exclusive). I develop a theoretical model that led to three hypotheses focusing on the independent role that political parties play in mitigating the effects of electoral rules on peace duration. To test these hypotheses, I use the Cox proportional hazard model on 57 post-conflict states from 1990 to 2009 and had competitive elections. The empirical results show support for the main argument of this study. First, the findings show that electoral rules alone do not increase or decrease the risk of civil war outbreak, yet when interacting with the degree to which political parties are broad or narrow, there is a significant effect on the outbreak of civil war. Second, the results show that post-conflict states with party centered electoral systems (closed list PR system) are less likely to have an outbreak of civil war when more seats in the parliament are controlled by broad-based parties. In addition, I conduct a comparative case study analysis of two post-conflict states, Angola (1975-1992) and Mozambique (1975-1994), using the most similar systems (MSS) research design.

The study explores the effect of intergroup contact on the likelihood of spoiler group activity on a micro-regional level in post-conflict societies. It argues that higher levels of intergroup contact make areas more resilient to spoiler groups. This can be especially relevant during exogenous shocks and therefore contributes to the sustainability of peace processes. The resistance to spoiler activity is explained as a result of developing intergroup networks of solidarity, which reduce recruitment capabilities of organized violent groups. The theoretical propositions will be tested by a large-N study (N = 1,203) using the Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey of 2017, distributed about one year after the Brexit referendum. The general findings support the hypothesis that positive intergroup contact decreases the likelihood of spoiler group activity in an area. This study thus contributes to finding applicable solutions to foster stability in peace processes on the local level.

L’apaisement de l’antagonisme Est-Ouest suite à la chute du Mur de Berlin, modifie l’équilibre stratégique mondial et suscite le réveil de conflits dits « gelés ». Dans ce contexte, les Etats européens saisissent la nécessité de se doter d’un cadre politico-stratégique commun (PESC) afin de contribuer au maintien de la paix et de la sécurité internationales. Avec la mise en place de la PESC, puis d’une dimension opérationnelle à son action extérieure (PSDC), l’UE ambitionne à devenir un acteur stratégique majeur pour la gestion des crises. Le développement de capacités « non-militaires » – civiles – de la PSDC, dédiées à la conduite d’activités de reconstruction post-conflit, constitue une véritable valeur ajoutée. Malgré la jeunesse de sa PSDC, l’UE représente indéniablement une force positive pour la sécurité coopérative aux côtés des autres acteurs de la sécurité. Les défis actuels appellent néanmoins à une réactualisation de la stratégie sécuritaire européenne. / The end of the Cold War modified the fragile security equilibrium established for over fifty years, bringing frozen conflicts to the forefront of the international security environment. Confronted with this new reality, EU member states seized the necessity of developing a common political and strategic framework (CFSP), in order to help maintain peace and international security. The establishment of the CFSP and of an operational dimension to its external action (CSDP), illustrate the EU’s ambition to becoming a key strategic player in crisis management. By developing civilian capabilities within its CSDP, destined for post-conflict reconstruction activities, the EU aims at providing a real added value to modern crisis management. Despite the insufficiencies of its newly created CSDP, the EU positively contributes to cooperative security alongside other security actors. Current security challenges nevertheless require an updating of its strategy.

A critical re-examination of the liberal peace is conducted to explore the ways in which certain ideas around peace have come to dominate and to be regarded as “common sense”. The foundation of my critique comes in the personalisation of peacebuilding through the stories of people who are the intended beneficiaries of its actions. This thesis seeks to open up and challenge the current measures of success and the location of power by introducing voices and experiences of Mende people located in the Southern and Eastern provinces of Sierra Leone. I have attempted to open up a reflexive space where simple questions can be re-examined and the location of recovery can be seen as a space influenced, shaped and performed in the context of diverse influences. I draw on my personal experience living in Bo, Sierra Leone for two months in 2014 and local level actors' subjective reflections on individual and communal notions of recovery, post-conflict. My findings are reflected in “building blocks” that uncover a partial story of personal perspectives on recovery. The story suggests a de-centred and complex “local” within the existing context and realigns the understanding of subject and agency within peacebuilding. This collection of experiences, stories and encounters reshapes the notion of peace as an everyday activity with the aim of improving well-being on a personal level. It is also a part of the peacebuilding process that exists outside of the traditional organisational lens. My main contribution has been in allowing alternative space(s) of peacebuilding and peace-shaping to have a platform that is not restricted by the confined epistemic “expert” community toward an understanding of “progress” as an experiential and subjective process of recovery. This approach sought to challenge the current site of legitimacy, power and knowledge, and in order to achieve this aim I drew on a new methodological toolkit and the absorption of key concepts from other disciplines such as managerialism and the sociological concept of the “stranger”. My research offers an opportunity to observe and utilise information sourced from the creativity and spontaneity of the everyday lived experiences of Sierra Leoneans and ordinary phenomena connected with this.

One of the greatest post-conflict problems in South Sudan, which has emerged as a threat to the nation’s security, has been the deadly clashes between tribes during cattle raids. This thesis examines why cattle raiding shifted from a relatively non-violent rite of passage to the primary manifestation of tribal conflict in South Sudan, and whether it is possible to reverse this shift. This thesis proposes a unique approach to the topic by analyzing two underlying causes: insecurity in Jonglei State and a breakdown of traditional governance structures – as well as how their combination has led to the shift. This thesis focuses on a case study of Jonglei State, as it has experienced the largest number of instances of conflict attributed to cattle raiding in South Sudan. Furthermore, current attempts to reduce conflict through increased security and disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration programs have failed as they only address problems of insecurity. I will be comparing two periods of cattle raiding in Jonglei: the current conflict from 2009 until the present, and a historical review of cattle raids focusing on governance of the raids. The review will not cover any specific time period as it aims to identify what aspects of the tradition contributed to a reduced scale of violence before the shift in 2009. Insecurity has caused the increase in clashes, while disconnections to traditions have caused the increase in violence. To address these problems, traditional leadership structures and the de facto rules that structured raids must be re-established in order to produce a long-term solution.

This case study investigates gender-sensitive institutional reforms in post-war Liberia. It applies key concepts developed by the Research Network on Gender Politics and the State to explore the extent to which the emergent theory of state feminism might be applicable to countries outside of the West. Preliminary findings suggest that Liberia is a feminist state insofar as both the women’s machinery and the Sirleaf Administration are allied with feminist and women’s movement actors outside the state, and that they grant these actors access to policymaking fora. Policy content also appears to reflect many of the goals identified by women’s movement actors. However, given the lack of state capacity and the degree of state penetration by international organizations, it is difficult to determine the drivers of ostensibly state-led gender equity initiatives in the country. Because multi-level governance is the norm in areas where the capacity of the state is severely circumscribed, this research introduces the concept of “supra-state feminism” to demonstrate the major limitation of state feminist theory in Liberia. This notion of feminist policy transfer in areas of limited statehood adds to the comparative literature on engendering political transitions in sub-Saharan Africa.

The study investigates the interface between the variables - language attitude and language use in a development context, and attempts to determine the contribution of language to Rwanda's post-conflict development, reconstruction and reconciliation. It examines the language attitudes and language use patterns of 53 students from Rwanda's public universities focusing on how students, who are all Rwandan citizens, view the role of Kinyarwanda, French, English and Kiswahili languages in twelve core areas of post-conflict development. Although post-conflict development is socio-economic, previous historical and political factors affecting Rwanda's violent past play a role as new forms of linguistic categorization - Anglophone and Francophone - emerge which may be used to camouflage previous ethnic categorizations that have had disastrous effects in Rwanda. Further, social categorizations laden with salient features of linguistic identity may influence the implementation of the post-conflict development programmes, and also affect the pace and pattern of reconciliation in Rwanda. Conclusions are based on eclectic sources: quantitative, qualitative, historical and participatory, with patterns of analysis established from secondary and historical data. The study is also grounded in the Communication Accommodation Theory that rests on issues of divergence and convergence during interaction where emerging language identities dovetail with language attitudes and language use, resulting in an interface that influences the implementation of Rwanda's post-conflict development programmes. Additionally, it is argued that the African languages such as Kinyarwanda and Kiswahili, should be considered as vehicles for Rwanda's post-conflict development, although Kinyarwanda, the home language, has in the past really not served an intranational unifying function. On the other hand, Kiswahili, unlike Kinyarwanda, has no divisive myths and identities that would inhibit post-conflict development; it is an important language in the East and Central African region where post-conflict Rwanda will play a positive and active role, and would be a language to be positively developed. / African Languages / D.Litt et Phil. (African Languages)

Alors que le conflit en Syrie continue sa course dévastatrice depuis mars 2011, cette recherche s’inscrit dans une démarche prospective visant à envisager le post-conflit. Après une analyse de la situation touristique et politique de la Syrie, avant et pendant le conflit, notre travail aboutit à une série de constats et de prévisions qui permettent de dessiner le contour d’un tourisme post-conflit dans le pays. Pour compléter notre analyse nous avons eu recours au comparatisme avec les cas de la Bosnie-Herzégovine et de la Croatie. Les deux pays ayant connu des conflits dans les années 1990, cette démarche nous a permis d’y observer le contexte post-conflit avec plus de recul. Les questions du devenir du patrimoine existant et de l’émergence d’un « nouveau patrimoine » issu du conflit font partie des sujets auxquels nous nous sommes intéressés ainsi qu’à l’évolution de l’interprétation de ces différents patrimoines au fil du temps (« à chaud »/ « à froid »). Nous nous sommes intéressés en parallèle aux nouvelles formes de tourisme qui pourraient accompagner le retour de la paix, notamment le "dark tourism", caractéristique du contexte post-conflit. Le résultat prend la forme de scenarii décrivant les différents aboutissements possibles du conflit en cours en Syrie et leurs implications respectives sur le futur du tourisme dans le pays. / While the harrowing conflict in Syria has been enduring since March 2011, this research aims nonetheless to foresee the aftermath of the war through a forward-looking approach. After an analysis of the situation in Syria, before and during the war, from a touristic and political point of view, our work results in a series of observations and forecasts that allow us to draw the outlines of a post-conflict tourism in the country. More specifically and in order to complete our analysis, we used a comparative framework to study the examples of Bosnia and Herzegovina, as well as Croatia. Given that both countries have lived through conflict in the 1990s, this approach enabled us to observe the post-conflict context with a longer lapse of time. The questions related to the future of heritage sites, the emergence of a “new heritage” resulting from the conflict itself, and the changes over time in the interpretation of these different forms of heritage (“hot/cold interpretation”) were among the main issues that we have treated in this dissertation. We also took a major interest in the appearance of new forms of tourism that might accompany the return of peace, especially the “dark tourism”, typical of the post-conflict context. The results are presented in the form of scenarios that describe the different possible outcomes of the current conflict in Syria and their respective implications for the future of tourism in the country.

[pt] O século XXI é o século das cidades. Atualmente, o processo de urbanização é um fenômeno acelerado e em escala planetária, com ritmos desiguais e caminhos diferentes, mas que conduzem a uma mesma realidade: a construção de um planeta de cidades. Apesar da progressiva concentração da população nas grandes urbes, a maior parte da população mundial mora em centros urbanos de porte médio e pequeno. Nesse universo de cidades, no contexto da globalização e o uso intensivo de informação e conhecimento em redes, sobressaem, as cidades intermédias. Entendidas não como pontos isolados na rede urbana, as cidades intermédias têm aparecido nos estudos recentes como importantes nós nas redes, exigindo uma análise que considere as relações entre a cidade e a região e entre as cidades de diferentes níveis hierárquicos, em forma de cidade-rede-região. A presença de cidades de importância regional de porte médio em áreas afetadas historicamente pelo conflito armado sugere que tais cidades devem exercer um rol significativo em seus respetivos espaços geográficos no período do pós-conflito. Desta forma, a partir de uma análise histórico-geográfica do desenvolvimento do conflito armado e fundamentada no conceito de cidade intermédia, a pesquisa pretende identificar aquelas cidades que apresentam o potencial de liderar essa nova fase de transição na procura de atingir o desenvolvimento sustentável das regiões. / [en] Urbanization is a global phenomenon and occurs on a planetary scale, with unequal rhythms and different paths, but leading to the same complex and diverse reality: the construction of a planet of cities. Nowadays, we see a process of urbanization that we can describe as global and accelerated, but it does not develop in a balanced and efficient way on the territory. The progressive concentration of the population in large urban agglomerations, the accelerated and sometimes uncontrolled growth of megacities are spatial effects of the current process and trends of urbanization. Nevertheless, the majority of the world urban population lives in small and medium-sized cities and forecasts indicate that these centers will continue to increase their population. In the last decades, it has been observed that in several Latin American countries, the settlement model is changing and there are areas of economic importance, where decades ago, they used to be entities without much population dynamism. Despite this, there are not many international or regional studies on the smaller cities in urban systems.

Le but de la thèse est d'apprécier l'efficacité des programmes de reconstruction destinés à assurer le redressement économique de pays sortant de guerre civile depuis la fin de la Guerre froide. Du point de vue de la méthode, cette efficacité est évaluée à la fois par la pertinence du contenu et de l'organisation de ces programmes aux caractéristiques des économies post-conflictuelles, et par une évaluation de leur performance au vu d'indicateurs de redressement spécifiques à ces contextes. Les causes économiques des conflits et le fonctionnement d'une économie de guerre sont analysés dans la mesure ils conditionnent le passage à une économie de paix (chapitres 1 à 4). Une approche en termes d'économie politique (Stewart, Fitzgerald) recoupant inégalités horizontales et verticales et complétée par celle d'Amartya Sen contribue à rendre compte des spécificités de ce type de contexte que la théorie néoclassique ne permet pas d'appréhender. L'approche en termes de moyens d'existence (Chambers et Conway), de vulnérabilité due au contexte (Collinson) et d'économie institutionnelle donnent un cadre théorique cohérent pour cerner les caractéristiques économiques des sociétés post-conflictuelles (chapitres 5 à 7) et permettent d'identifier des facteurs bloquant ou de ralentissement du processus de redressement économique. L'étude de la configuration des programmes de reconstruction fait apparaître une prolifération d'acteurs aux logiques différentes, peu coordonnés et formant une administration de substitution non alignée dans un État fragile (chapitre 8). Le rapprochement entre programme et caractéristiques observées permet alors de procéder à l'évaluation de l'efficacité des programmes (chapitre 9). L'évaluation quantitative converge vers le constat d'un échec relatif, notamment du fait de leur lenteur (d'où risque de résurgence du conflit). Une modélisation à partir des données disponibles appuie l'identification effectuée de l'importance de certaines variables spécifiques (retour des populations déplacées, institutions, sécurité). L'analyse qualitative des causes de cette inefficacité fait apparaître : - les effets pervers du manque de coordination, analysée ici à la lumière de la théorie des coûts de transaction, de la théorie contingente et de l'analyse marginaliste, notamment sur le marché du travail et les capacités administratives, ce qui permet de mettre à jour le concept de seuil de capacités institutionnelles ; - l'inadaptation dans la conception et la mise en œuvre des programmes aux spécificités observées. Entre la référence mythifiée au Plan Marshall et l'absence d'intervention extérieure qui mènerait à un état de suffocation économique, l'analyse de cette inefficacité relative débouche sur quelques préconisations adaptables selon les contextes. / The effectiveness of reconstruction programs in post-conflict contexts Abstract The thesis aims at assessing the effectiveness of reconstruction programs intended to ensure for the economic recovery of countries emerging from civil war since the end of the Cold War. From the standpoint of the method used, this effectiveness is both evaluated through the relevance of the content and the organization of these programs with regard to the characteristics of the post-conflict economies, and through an assessment of their performances according to recovery indicators which are specific to this context. The economic causes of conflicts and the functioning of a wartime economy are analyzed because they influence the transition to an economy in the context of peace (chapters 1 to 4). An approach in terms of political economy (Stewart, Fitzgerald) comparing both horizontal and vertical inequalities and completed by Amartya Sen's approach contributes to the account of the specific characteristics of this type of context which the neoclassical theory is not enabled to grasp. The approach in terms of sustainable livelihoods (Chambers and Conways), of the vulnerability due to the context and of the institutional economy, provides a coherent theoretical framework in order to identify the economic features of post-conflict societies (chapters 5 to 7) and enables for the identification of the factors which block or slow down the process of economic recovery. The study of the configuration of reconstruction programs reveals the multiplication of actors which have different approaches, a lack of coordination in their work, and the formation of a substitute administration non-aligned to the fragile state (chapter 8). Closer ties between the programs and the observed characteristics enable for the evaluation of their effectiveness (chapter 9). The quantitative evaluation arrives at the conclusion that these programs are relative failures, especially due to their sluggishness. From the data available, the significance of some specific variables is observed (the return of populations, institutions, security). The qualitative analysis of the causes of this ineffectiveness reveals: Perverse effects due to the lack of coordination, analyzed through the transaction costs theory, the contingence theory, and the marginalist theory, more particularly in the labor markets, the administrative capacity, reveals a threshold of institutional capacities; Poor adaptation in the design and the implementation of the programs to the observed characteristics. Between the references towards the Marshall Plan and the absence of any exterior intervention, the analysis of this ineffectiveness concludes that some requirements should be adapted for each context.