This project analyzes the relationship between military occupations and power vacuums. Specifically, it seeks to understand why some military occupations result in power vacuums while others do not. Pundits and policymakers have written extensively about the possibilities that the end of US occupations might yield dangerous power vacuums. These vacuums would create regional turmoil by inviting hostile actors and causing state failure. Based on these assumptions, many commentators caution against the withdrawal of forces. But what exactly is fearful about a power vacuum remains unclear. The concept of a power vacuum lacks defined parameters and scope, and why military occupations might lead to power vacuums is unknown. Much of the current analysis derives from familiar and recent cases of occupations of Iraq and Afghanistan. David Edelstein has the most comprehensive work on military occupations, but his work does not directly address the outcome of power vacuums. This project uses a mix multimethod research design to examine which factors cause power vacuums to emerge following occupations. It uses a comprehensive dataset of occupations since 1943. It will begin with a medium-n QCA and then proceed with case studies. The ultimate goal is to identify the conditions likely to lead to power vacuums and develop policy recommendations about how to avoid them. This project theorizes that a high level of economic destruction inflicted by the occupying military is a necessary condition for the absence of a power vacuum in the occupied territory. Shortened, this project calls this theory total destruction equals total buy-in. High levels of economic destruction inflicted by the occupier pacify the occupied population, while simultaneously delegitimizing the occupied state's previous regime. High economic destruction, which is defined as the decline of a state's per-capita GDP and overall population, is not the sole factor in preventing a power vacuum. Combinations of other conditions help influence the advent or absence of a power vacuum, but economic destruction inflicted by the occupier is the only condition that must be present in order to prevent a power vacuum. / Doctor of Philosophy / This project examines how, when, and why power vacuums emerge at the end of military occupations. Power vacuums evoke fear from pundits and policymakers, as hostile actors can exploit power vacuums to sow instability. Yet there remains no clear definition of what constitutes a power vacuums or substantive research on their etiology and impact. Policy discussions typically look to recent US experience in Iraq and Afghanistan to evaluate how the end of military engagement and occupation can create power vacuums. Thus risk of a power vacuum is often cited as justification to prolong military operations. To rectify this, this project will complete a replication and extension using David Edelstein's seminal dataset on military occupations. The dataset includes well-known cases such as the Allied occupations of Western Germany and Japan and lesser-known occupations like the Vietnamese occupation of Cambodia. Using a combination of within-case process tracing and Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA), the project seeks to elucidate what combination of conditions generate power vacuums following military occupations. The theory this project argues is that a high level of economic destruction inflicted by the occupying military is a necessary condition for the absence of a power vacuum in the occupied territory. The crux of this theory is that occupiers that engage in protracted conflict, inflicting widespread damage on a state before occupying it, are more likely to prevent a power vacuum from occurring. This widespread damage creates "breathing space" for the occupier to establish indigenous security forces (ISF) and a friendly government without having to worry about nationalist resistance from the occupied population.

L’anarchia désigne au sens propre la vacance du pouvoir dans la sphère militaire (la mort du chef sur le champ de bataille) et dans la sphère politique (la vacance de la magistrature, en particulier éponyme). La notion est vite devenue plus générale et exprime au figuré le manque ou le refus du commandement. Elle se rapproche des sens d’insubordination, insoumission, indiscipline, licence et désordre. L’expérience effective de la vacance du pouvoir dans les cités grecques, sa représentation et sa conceptualisation constituent les axes principaux de cette recherche. L’anarchia est envisagée à l’échelle de l’âme, de la famille, de la cité, voire de l’univers. Elle engage une réflexion sur l’articulation entre deux principes a priori antagonistes, l’aspiration à la liberté et la nécessité de l’ordre, et par conséquent sur les fondements de l’exercice légitime du pouvoir. L’étude repose sur l’analyse précise des emplois du terme anarchia dans les sources épigraphiques, historiques, littéraires et philosophiques. La première partie envisage les vacances effectives des magistratures dans le cadre du cours normal ou d’une rupture du fonctionnement des institutions ainsi que les palliatifs mis en place. Les occurrences du terme anarchia concernent les cités d’Athènes, Thasos, Téos, Syros et Bérénikè. S’ajoutent les emplois problématiques des termes akosmia à propos du régime crétois par Aristote et atagia dans les inscriptions thessaliennes. La deuxième partie envisage l’évolution sémantique du terme de l’absence de chef à l’anarchie chez les historiens et les poètes tragiques et la place de l’anarchia dans les théories du commandement élaborées par Xénophon, Platon et Aristote. / The term anarchia refers literally to the absence of power, in the military sphere (that caused by the loss of a commander), and the political sphere (the absence of archontes, specifically the eponymous archon). The concept quickly generalised, coming to designate in the figurative sense the lack and want of power or the rejection and negation of power. It approaches the meanings of insubordination, rebelliousness, unruliness, licentiousness and disorder. The actual experience of power vacuum in the cities of Ancient Greece and how the Greeks represented it and conceptualised it are the three main lines of this research. Anarchia is conceived not only in the city but also in the soul of the individual, in the family, or even in the universe. It demands reflection on the articulation between two seemingly antagonistic principles, the desire for freedom and the necessity of order, and consequently upon the foundations of legitimate authority. This work relies on a precise analysis of the term anarchia in the epigraphic, historical, literary and philosophical sources. The first part deals with actual periods of power vacuum in the ordinary course of political life or in the context of institutional disruption and the implemented remedies. The term anarchia is employed in the cities of Athens, Thasos, Teos, Syros and Berenike. One must add the problematical use of the terms acosmia by Aristotle regarding the Cretan regime and atagia in the Thessalian inscriptions. The second part deals with the semantic evolution of the term from the absence of ruler to anarchy in the work of historians and tragic poets and the role of anarchia in the theory of leadership developed by Xenophon, Plato and Aristotle.

This study aims to develop the understanding of how power over civil society emerges, in relation to social capital and power vacuums, based on a case study of cartel activity. The study focuses on two states, Aguascalientes and Chihuahua, in Mexico. A general historical analysis of the development of Mexican politics introduces the paper, after which an extensive examination of the development of the two states and the cartel activity within is explained. To corroborate this examination, a statistical analysis of the states is performed. The study shows that cartels establish their power in areas with low levels of social capital, and where a power vacuum resides. Furthermore, the results show how power vacuums are established in times of organizational change.

This thesis investigates the period in Judah which took place precisely a century between the death ofHezekiah (687 BCE) and the final fall of Jerusalem (587 BCE) Seldom has a nation experienced so many dramatically sudden reversals of fortune in so relatively short a time. Throughout the first half of the seventh century BCE the Assyrian empire reigned supreme. In the second half, in rapid succession, Judah, as a vassal, experienced periods of independence and of subjection, first to Egypt, then to Babylonia, before finally destroying herself in a futile rebellion against the latter. The aim of the thesis was to set Judah in the global context and investigate the role she played. To this end the Great Powers, namely Assyria, Egypt and Babylonia were surveyed, as well as were the Small Powers, like Judah, Phoenicia and the Transjordanian states, and the relationships probed. The thesis traces the life of the wicked but extraordinarily successful King Manasseh, and his equally reprobate son, Amon, who was brutally murdered by his servants, and was avenged by 'the people of the land'. Josiah is the only monarch who fits the Deuteronomistic requirements of a good king. Religious and national reform generally go hand in hand with politics, and the cultic reform and centralization of the cult characterise his reign. · With the fall of Assyria, the temporary surge into prominence by Egypt and the tragic death of Josiah in 609 BCE, Judah experienced radical political fluctuations and with them alternate subjugation by, and rebellion against, each of the major powers. Inexperienced leadership and a situation of dual kings, followed Josiah's death. The rapidly changing international scene demanded of the rulers of Judah skillful manoeuvring and exceptional adaptability, and frequently confronted them with ominous political situations. Judaean leaders and the puppet King Zedekiah, propped up by false prophets, failed to grasp the shift in the balance of power, and clung to questionable Egyptian aid against the new world power, Babylonia. Highly vulnerable and left in the lurch, Jerusalem faced protracted siege and famine in Jerusalem, destruction ofthe Temple, and deportation ofthe cream ofher people. / Classics and Modern European Languages / D. Litt. et Phil. (Judaica)

This thesis investigates the period in Judah which took place precisely a century between the death ofHezekiah (687 BCE) and the final fall of Jerusalem (587 BCE) Seldom has a nation experienced so many dramatically sudden reversals of fortune in so relatively short a time. Throughout the first half of the seventh century BCE the Assyrian empire reigned supreme. In the second half, in rapid succession, Judah, as a vassal, experienced periods of independence and of subjection, first to Egypt, then to Babylonia, before finally destroying herself in a futile rebellion against the latter. The aim of the thesis was to set Judah in the global context and investigate the role she played. To this end the Great Powers, namely Assyria, Egypt and Babylonia were surveyed, as well as were the Small Powers, like Judah, Phoenicia and the Transjordanian states, and the relationships probed. The thesis traces the life of the wicked but extraordinarily successful King Manasseh, and his equally reprobate son, Amon, who was brutally murdered by his servants, and was avenged by 'the people of the land'. Josiah is the only monarch who fits the Deuteronomistic requirements of a good king. Religious and national reform generally go hand in hand with politics, and the cultic reform and centralization of the cult characterise his reign. · With the fall of Assyria, the temporary surge into prominence by Egypt and the tragic death of Josiah in 609 BCE, Judah experienced radical political fluctuations and with them alternate subjugation by, and rebellion against, each of the major powers. Inexperienced leadership and a situation of dual kings, followed Josiah's death. The rapidly changing international scene demanded of the rulers of Judah skillful manoeuvring and exceptional adaptability, and frequently confronted them with ominous political situations. Judaean leaders and the puppet King Zedekiah, propped up by false prophets, failed to grasp the shift in the balance of power, and clung to questionable Egyptian aid against the new world power, Babylonia. Highly vulnerable and left in the lurch, Jerusalem faced protracted siege and famine in Jerusalem, destruction ofthe Temple, and deportation ofthe cream ofher people. / Classics and Modern European Languages / D. Litt. et Phil. (Judaica)