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APPLICATION OF FINANCIAL MARKET MODELS IN THE HOTEL INDUSTRYHaejin Kim (9597320) 16 December 2020 (has links)
<p>In this dissertation, I investigated price dynamics in the hotel room-night market and attempted to explain pricing decisions from a market perspective. Since market dynamics of the hotel room-night market can be paralleled to those in the financial market, financial market models allowed for examination of various aspects of hotel room pricing decisions.</p><p>In the first study, advance-purchase discounts were estimated through application of an option pricing model considering property-specific attributes. Non-refundable advance-purchase discounts are a commonly used rate fence. One challenge to their implementation, however, is deciding upon the precise magnitude of the discount. Quan’s (2002) study on the price of room reservations is a good starting point, but it is a conceptual model that assumes away other property-specific factors. This study thus tested the idea that advance-purchase discounts are affected by various components, including the value of the right to cancel a reservation (e.g., cancelation option value) and the room- and property-specific factors in the hotel room-night market (e.g., uncertainty, reviews, and seasonality). The analysis supported this hypothesis and additionally revealed that advance-purchase discounts are smaller for rooms with high review ratings in a high-demand period. Interestingly, the divergence between advance-purchase discounts and cancelation option value components widened in a high-demand period, which implies a tendency by hotels to adjust their room rates rather than the amount of discount for customers who book their stay well in advance. Theoretically, this study thus contributes to finance literature by extending the application of the option pricing model to real options for non-financial assets. This study also contributes to the hospitality literature by demonstrating the effects of property-specific attributes on advance-purchase discount magnitude. The results also have implications to the hospitality industry by providing an analytical framework by which hoteliers can estimate property-specific advance-purchase discounts.</p><p>The second study concentrated on rate parity agreement’s effect on the hotel room-night market’s efficiency at reflecting product characteristics in room rates. This study examined the impact of rate parity agreement between hotels and online travel agencies by comparing hotel rates between Europe and the United States. This study found that room rates were less sensitive to property quality attributes under rate parity clauses. The reflection of property quality on room rates were less efficient when hotels have rate parity agreement with OTAs. Furthermore, the results supported the claim that rate parity exacerbates price increase in periods of high demand, which indicates possible collusion between suppliers (hotels) and distributors (OTAs). The findings provided theoretical implications by testing the market efficiency of the hotel room-night market and confirming the impact at the property level. This study also provided a perspective on pricing decision makers to understand how rate parity agreement influence their pricing decisions. Last, the findings provided support for recent policies in Europe that restrict rate parity agreements between hotels and OTAs.</p><p>The third study empirically examined hoteliers’ response to the demand by observing the price movement of two rates with different cancelation policies—free cancelation rates and non-refundable rates. By modifying Hasbrouck’s (1995) information share approach, this study examined the non-refundable rates’ contribution to the price discovery process. The perceived quality of accommodation by customers, one of the primary determinants of the price discovery process, was included in analysis. The results suggested that non-refundable rates were contribute more to the information variance than free cancelation rates did. The findings also suggested that consumers’ perceived quality and volatility influence non-refundable rates’ contribution to the price discovery process. The results also have practical implications for market participants, as they help to build an understanding of aggregated demand and its impact on pricing. Non-refundable rates are generally regarded as just one of many kinds of discounted rates, but the results of this study suggest that hoteliers should carefully consider the role that non-refundable rates play in their pricing strategy.<br></p>
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The european union emission trading scheme and energy markets : economic and financial analysisBertrand, Vincent 05 July 2012 (has links) (PDF)
This thesis investigates relationships between the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) and energy markets. A special focus is given to fuel switching, the main shortterm abatement measure within the EU ETS. This consists in substituting Combined Cycle Gas Turbines (CCGTs) for hard-coal plants in off-peak power generation. Thereby coal plants run for shorter periods, which allows power producers to reduce their CO2 emissions. In Chapter 1, we outline different approaches explaining relationships between carbon and energy markets. We also review the literature relating to these issues. Next, we further describe the fuel switching process and, in particular, we analyze the influence of energy and environmental efficiency of thermal power plants (coal and gas) on fuel switching. In Chapter 2, we provide a theoretical analysis that shows how differences in the efficiency of CCGTs can rule interactions between gas and carbon prices. The main result shows that the allowance price becomes more sensitive to the gas price when the level of CO2 emissions increases. In Chapter 3, we examine interactions between carbon, coal, gas and electricity prices in an empirical study. Among the main results, we find that there is a significant link between carbon and gas prices in the long-run equilibrium.In Chapter 4, we analyze the cross-market price discovery process between gas and CO2 markets. We identified in previous chapters that there is a robust significant link between gas and CO2 markets. They are linked commodities, and their prices are affected by the same information. In an empirical analysis, we find that the carbon market is the leader in cross-market price discovery process.
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Essays in Market MicrostructureHoffmann, Peter 13 July 2011 (has links)
This thesis covers three topics in Market Microstructure. Chapter 1 demonstrates that market access frictions may play a significant role in the competition between trading platforms. Analyzing a recent dataset of the trading activity in French and German stocks, we provide evidence that the incumbent markets dominate because the sole market entrant exposes liquidity providers to an excessive adverse selection risk due to a lack of noise traders. Chapter 2 presents a theoretical model of price formation in a dynamic limit order market with slow human traders and fast algorithmic traders. We show that in most cases, algorithmic trading has a detrimental effect on human traders’ welfare. Finally, Chapter 3 empirically analyzes the role of pre-trade transparency in call auctions. Comparing the trading mechanisms in place on the French and German stock exchanges, we find that transparency is associated with higher trading volume, greater liquidity, and better price discovery. / Esta tesis estudia tres temas diferentes de la microestructura de los mercados financieros. El capítulo 1 demuestra que fricciones en el acceso al mercado pueden desempeñar un papel significativo en la competencia entre plataformas de negociación de activos. El análisis de un conjunto de datos recientes de la actividad en acciones francesas y alemanas demuestra que los mercados primarios dominan debido a que el único mercado satélite expone los proveedores de liquidez a un riesgo excesivo de selección adversa, causado por una falta de noise traders. El capítulo 2 presenta un modelo teórico de formación de precios en un mercado dinámico con limit order book poblado por agentes humanos lentos y agentes algorítmicos rápidos. Se demuestra que, en la mayoría de los casos, la negociación algorítmica tiene un efecto negativo sobre el bienestar de agentes humanos. Por último, el capítulo 3 analiza empíricamente el papel de la transparencia pre-negociación en las subastas de apertura y de cierre. Comparando los mecanismos en las bolsas francesas y alemanas, encontramos que la transparencia está asociada con un volumen mayor, una liquidez mayor y un mejor price discovery.
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Understanding the cost of carry in Nikkei 225 stock index futures markets : mispricing, price and volatility dynamicsQin, Jieye January 2017 (has links)
This dissertation studies the cost of carry relationship and the international dynamics of mispricing, price and volatility in the three Nikkei futures markets - the Osaka Exchange (OSE), the Singapore Exchange (SGX) and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Previous research does not fully consider the unique characteristics of the triple-listed Nikkei futures contracts, or the price and volatility dynamics in the three Nikkei futures exchanges at the same time. This dissertation makes a significant contribution to the existing literature. In particular, with a comprehensive new 19-year sample period, this dissertation helps deepen the understanding of the Nikkei spot-futures equilibrium and arbitrage behaviour, cross-border information transmission mechanism, and futures market integration. The first topic of the dissertation is to study the cost of carry relationship, mispricing and index arbitrage in the three Nikkei markets. The standard cost of carry model is adjusted for each Nikkei futures contract by allowing for the triple-listing nature and key institutional differences. Based on this, the economic significance of the Nikkei mispricing is explored in the presence of transaction costs. The static behaviour of the mispricing suggests that it is difficult especially for institutional investors to make arbitrage profits in the OSE and SGX, and that index arbitrage in the CME is not strictly risk-free due to the exchange rate effect. Smooth transition models are used to study the dynamic behaviour of the mispricing in the three markets. The results show that mean reversion in mispricing and limits to arbitrage are driven more by transaction costs than by heterogeneous arbitrageurs in the Nikkei markets. The second topic of the dissertation is to investigate the price discovery process in individual Nikkei markets and across the Nikkei futures markets. With smooth transition error correction models, this dissertation reports the leading role of the futures prices in the pre-crisis period and the leading role of the spot prices in the post-crisis period, in the first-moment information transmission process. Moreover, there is evidence of asymmetric adjustments in the Nikkei prices and volatilities. The cross-border dynamics suggest that the foreign Nikkei markets (the CME and SGX) act as the main price discovery vehicle, which implies the key functions of the equivalent, offshore markets in futures market globalisation. The third topic of the dissertation is to study the volatility transmission process in individual Nikkei markets and across the Nikkei futures markets, from the perspectives of the volatility interactions in and across the Nikkei markets and of the dynamic Nikkei market linkages. This dissertation finds bidirectional volatility spillover effects between the Nikkei spot and futures markets, and the information leadership of the foreign Nikkei markets (the CME and SGX) in the second-moment information transmission process across the border. It further examines the dynamic conditional correlations between the Nikkei markets. The results point to a dramatic integration process with strongly persistent and stable Nikkei market co-movements over time.
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Descoberta de preço nas opções de PetrobrásSuzuki, Yurie Yassunaga January 2015 (has links)
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Previous issue date: 2015 / This work aims to study market behavior involving Petrobras’ stock and options markets applying price discovery methodology. Using high-frequency data, provided by BM&FBOVESPA, econometric models used in this methodology were estimated and measures of Information Share (IS) and Component Share (CS) were calculated. The results of the analyzes indicated dominance of the spot market in the process of price discovery, since, for this market, were observed values over 66% for IS and above 74% for CS. Graphical analysis of the impulse response function indicated that the spot market is more efficient than the option market. / Este trabalho tem como objetivo estudar o comportamento do mercado de ações e opções de Petrobrás utilizando a metodologia de price discovery (descoberta de preços). A partir de dados de alta frequência de ambos os mercados, fornecidos pela BM&FBOVESPA, os modelos econométricos utilizados nessa metodologia foram estimados e as medidas de Information Share (IS) e Component Share (CS) foram calculadas. Os resultados das análises indicaram dominância do mercado à vista no processo de descoberta de preços, dado que, para este mercado, foram observados valores acima de 66% para a medida IS e acima de 74% para a medida CS. Análises gráficas da função resposta ao impulso indicaram, também, que o mercado à vista é o mais eficiente.
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Assessing the ICT-enabled agricultural commodity exchange market and its impact on small-scale farmers in South Africa TakudzwaMusiyarira, Takudzwa Taurai Christopher January 2013 (has links)
Magister Economicae - MEcon / Pre-democratic South Africa was highly regulated by the apartheid government with the
black small-scale farming community actively marginalised. Following the deregulation of
the South African agricultural market came the opening up of the market to accommodate
these small-scale farmers and also the introduction of South African Futures Exchange.
South Africa has done well in terms of development of ICT over the past years, making it a
country with characteristics of both first and third world countries. This study aims to assess
the agricultural commodity exchange market and how small-scale farmers may participate
more actively in the market. This study finds that though South Africa has world class ICT
infrastructure this has not made it easier for small-scale farmers to enter the agricultural
market and value chain. The study finds that there is little or no participation by small-scale
farmers in South African Futures Exchange. It finds that mobile phones and applications
may be the way forward in the efforts to ensure their participation in the commodity
exchange market through provision of services such as price discovery and price risk
management as is the function of South African Futures Exchange. It is also found that there
is need to invest in high value agricultural products in order to benefit more from commodity
exchanges.
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Essays on the microstructure of the market pre-opening periodJohnson, Ike Jay January 2010 (has links)
This thesis consists of three related essays that examine investors' order submission strategies during the pre-opening period on the Malta Stock Exchange. The pre-opening is a period of liquidity formation and price discovery characterised by the absence of trade execution. The three essays collectively examine the information content of the order book in relation to: the intensity of order submissions, the aggressiveness of investors' order placement strategy and the determination of returns generated over the pre-opening period.The first essay empirically investigates if public information concerning the current state of the order book impacts the duration between order arrivals. Utilizing an augmented ACD model, the research reveals that the information which can be inferred from the characteristics of incoming orders has a more significant impact on the intensity of buy order submissions as compared to sell order submissions during the pre-opening period. Furthermore, prospective buyers appear to be more responsive to liquidity provided by the sell side than the reverse. Locked or crossed order submissions tend to increases (decreases) the intensity of order flow on the own (opposite) side of the order book, corroborating Cao et al. (2000) that such order-types contain informative signals about the fundamental value of the asset.The second essay analyses the impact of limit order book information on the aggressiveness observed in the submission, revision and cancellation of limit orders during the market pre-opening period. The empirical results indicate that the aggressiveness of order submissions and forward price revisions react both to the existing and subsequent changes in the execution probability at market opening, driven in part by the depth on either side of the order book. The aggressiveness of order cancellations increases on both sides of the order book when the depth at the top of the ask order book increases. In addition, the results suggest that the order book height and size of the inside spread impacts the aggressiveness of order submissions, revisions and cancellations.The third essay studies the contribution of the pre-opening period to the daily price discovery process and the factors that impact the return generated over this period. The results indicate that approximately one third of daily price discovery occurs in the pre-opening period. In addition, the impact of relative depth and height of the overnight and opening order book are concentrated at the top of the order book. Furthermore, cumulative changes to relative depth attributable to order submissions most significantly impact the opening returns of less actively traded stocks. The results show a strong relationship between opening returns and cumulative changes in the relative height along the order book attributable to order submissions, cancellations and forward and backward price revisions over the pre-opening period.
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THREE ESSAYS ON PRICING AND VOLUME DISTRIBUTIONS OF CROSS-LISTED STOCKSWang, Jing January 2014 (has links)
No description available.
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UK equity market microstructure in the age of machineSun, Yuxin January 2018 (has links)
Financial markets perform two major functions. The first is the provision of liquidity in order to facilitate direct investment, hedging and diversification; the second is to ensure the efficient price discovery required in order to direct resources to where they can be best utilised within an economy. How well financial markets perform these functions is critical to the financial welfare of every individual in modern economies. As an example, retirement savings across the world are mostly invested in capital markets. Hence, the functioning of financial markets is linked to the standard of living of individuals. Technological advancements and new market regulations have in recent times significantly impacted how financial markets function, with no period in history having witnessed a more rapid pace of change than the last decade. Financial markets have become very complex, with most of the order execution now done by computer algorithms. New high-tech trading venues, such as dark pools, also now play outsized roles in financial markets. A lot of the impacts of these developments are poorly understood. In the EU particularly, the introduction of the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID) and advancements in technology have combined to unleash a dramatic transformation of European capital markets. In order to better understand the role of high-tech trading venues in the modern financial markets' trading environment generally and in the UK in particular, I conduct three studies investigating questions linked to the three major developments in financial markets over the past decade; these are algorithmic/high-frequency trading, market fragmentation and dark trading. In the first study, I examine the changing relationship between the price impact of block trades and informed trading, by considering this phenomenon within a high-frequency trading environment on intraday and inter-day bases. I find that the price impact of block trades is stronger during the first hour of trading; this is consistent with the hypothesis that information accumulates overnight during non-trading hours. Furthermore, private information is gradually incorporated into prices despite heightened trading frequency. Evidence suggests that informed traders exploit superior information across trading days, and stocks with lower transparency exhibit stronger information diffusion effects when traded in blocks, thus informed block trading facilitates price discovery. The second study exploits the regulatory differences between the US and the EU to examine the impact of market fragmentation on dimensions of market quality. Unlike the US's Regulation National Market System, the EU's MiFID does not impose a formal exchange trading linkage or guarantee a best execution price. This has raised concerns about consolidated market quality in increasingly fragmented European markets. The second study therefore investigates the impact of visible trading fragmentation on the quality of the London equity market and find a quadratic relationship between fragmentation and adverse selection costs. At low levels of fragmentation, order flow competition reduces adverse selection costs, improves market transparency and enhances market efficiency by reducing arbitrage opportunities. However, high levels of fragmentation increase adverse selection costs. The final study compares the impact of lit and dark venues' liquidity on market liquidity. I find that compared with lit venues, dark venues proportionally contribute more liquidity to the aggregate market. This is because dark pools facilitate trades that otherwise might not easily have occurred in lit venues when the spread widens and the limit order queue builds up. I also find that informed and algorithmic trading hinder liquidity creation in lit and dark venues, while evidence also suggests that stocks exhibiting low levels of informed trading across the aggregate market drive dark venues' liquidity contribution.
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The Pricing Behavior of Depository Receipts: Evidence from Emerging MarketsBassiouny Mohamed, Aliaa 29 May 2012 (has links)
Aquesta tesi ofereix un examen en profunditat del comportament d’apreuament de les accions dipositades per part dels mercats emergents que, en gran part, s’han menystingut tot i el seu paper de dominació en l’àmbit del creuament de cotitzacions estrangeres. Les característiques de les accions dipositades fan que tinguin un valor idèntic al del seu stock subjacent i, per tant, esperen ser valorades de la mateixa manera. El fet de dur a terme una anàlisi detallada d’aquesta qüestió ha estat obstaculitzat fins ara per la falta de qualitat de les dades del dia a dia dels mercats emergents, unes informacions que faciliten l’anàlisi a temps real de la relació entre els preus de les accions dipositades i els seus stocks subjacents. Aquest estudi directe és necessari des del moment que aquests mercats tenen grans barreres comercials que possiblement distorsionen les relacions d’apreuament teòriques i emmascaren els veritables patrons d’apreuament.
En el primer assaig s’examina el llarg funcionament fonamental de la relació econòmica que lliga els dos valors: la llei del preu únic. Proves recents demostren que, contràriament a allò que ocorre amb els valors de mercat, l’equitat de preus es trenca en els valors dels mercats emergents a causa de la presència de barreres comercials com ara els preus de comerç, les restriccions de la venda al detall i el control de capital. En el primer assaig es confirma la violació de la llarga carrera de la paritat en els preus de les accions dipositades egípcies, fet que està corroborat per proves de fortalesa dutes a terme durant diversos caps de setmana al mercat local i al mercat amfitrió, com també en els moviments del règim del tipus de canvi.
El segon assaig se centra a identificar si existeixen oportunitats reals d’arbitratge quan es viola l’equilibri en la relació d’apreuaments subjacent. En l’anàlisi s’utilitza una única freqüència elevada durant dos anys de dades diàries de 16 valors egipcis i argentins per identificar si existeixen oportunitats d’arbitratge durant el període en què els dos valors estan comerciant i establir si les comercialitzacions d’arbitratge juguen algun paper en la convergència de preus. La metodologia emprada es basa en un procediment d’identificació del nou arbitratge que té en compte les despeses del comerç dinàmic i el volum d’aquest. S’ha establert una evidència de la presència d’un gran nombre d’oportunitats d’arbitratge a través de la mostra. S’ha vist que les oportunitats d’arbitratge persisteixen durant uns quants minuts i demanen més d’una comercialització per convergir en zones no arbitrades. A partir d’un algoritme de filtració s’extreuen les veritables comercialitzacions d’arbitratge de la comercialització d’arbitratge de les dades i s’estableix la importància del rol d’arbitratge en el moment de restablir els preus al seu valor fonamental i en el moment d’evitar que els preus vagin a la deriva lluny d’un preu implícit comú i eficient.
El tercer assaig afegeix l’anàlisi de l’arbitratge i fa servir les mateixes dades diàries per examinar si és el mercat local o l’estranger el que juga un paper més dominant en l’apreuament diari dels valors de les cotitzacions creuades egípcies i argentines. Els resultats mostren que els dos mercats són importants per al procés de descobriment de preus, però que tant per a tots els valors egipcis com per a la major part dels argentins, el mercat local juga un paper més dominant. S’ha determinat que la localització de la descoberta del preu depèn de múltiples factors, entre els quals la liquiditat i el volum de comercialitzacions que cada mercat pot atraure són els més importants.
El darrer assaig de la tesi va estar motivat pels resultats del tercer assaig i inspirat pels moviments de la Primavera Àrab de l’Orient Mitjà. L’aixecament a Egipte del 25 de gener va estar acompanyat pel tancament complet dels mercats d’stock durant dos mesos sencers. Aquest fet va crear una situació interessant en la qual els únics valors egipcis que podien comercialitzar eren aquells que tenien accions dipositades i que comercialitzaven al Regne Unit. Utilitzem aquest fet per examinar l’efecte d’un canvi en el marc legal en la localització de la descoberta del preu i per determinar que durant el període d’excepció durant el qual el mercat local va estar tancat, la localització de la descoberta del preu va canviar al mercat estranger, fent que aquest fos la localització dominant per a les activitats d’apreuament. Això proporciona dades de la naturalesa dinàmica del descobriment de preus de les accions dipositades. / Esta tesis ofrece un examen en profundidad del comportamiento de pricing de los recibos de depósito por parte de los mercados emergentes que, en gran parte, ha sido negligido a pesar de su papel dominante en el ámbito del cross-listing extranjero. Las características de los recibos de depósito hacen que sean títulos idénticos a su stock subyacente y, por tanto, se espera que sean valorados de la misma forma. El análisis detallado esta cuestión ha visto obstaculizado hasta ahora por la falta de datos de calidad intradía de los mercados emergentes, que facilite el análisis en tiempo real de la relación entre los precios de los recibos de depósito y su stock subyacente. Este análisis directo es necesario desde el momento que estos mercados tienen grandes barreras comerciales que posiblemente distorsionan las relaciones de pricing teóricas y enmascaran los verdaderos patrones de pricing.
En el primer estudio, se examina la relación económica fundamental a largo plazo que relaciona los dos títulos: la ley del precio único. Pruebas recientes demuestran que, contrariamente a aquello que ocurre con los valores del mercado desarrollado, la paridad de precios se rompe en los valores de los mercados emergentes debido a la presencia de barreras comerciales como los precios comerciales, las restricciones de venta a corto y el control de capital. Este primer estudio confirma la violación de la paridad de precios de los recibos de depósito egipcios, hecho que está corroborado por los tests de fortaleza llevados a cabo durante varios fines de semana entre el mercado local y el de acogida, como también en los cambios de régimen del tipo de cambio.
El segundo estudio se centra en identificar si existen oportunidades reales de arbitraje cuando se viola la relación de pricing de equilibrio subyacente. En el análisis, se usa una única serie de datos intradía de alta frecuencia durante dos años de 16 valores egipcios y argentinos para identificar si existen oportunidades de arbitraje durante el período en que los dos valores se están comerciando y establecer si las comercializaciones de arbitraje tienen algún papel en la convergencia de precios. La metodología usada se basa en un nuevo procedimiento de identificación del arbitraje que tiene en cuenta los costes comerciales dinámicos y los volúmenes. Se ha constatado que existe un gran número de oportunidades de arbitraje a lo largo de la muestra. Se ha visto que las oportunidades de arbitraje persisten durante unos cuantos minutos y requieren más de una comercialización para converger en zonas no arbitradas. A partir de un algoritmo de filtración, se extraen los intercambios reales de arbitraje de los intercambios de la serie de datos y se establece la importancia del rol de los árbitros para restablecer los precios a sus valores fundamentales y evitar que los precios se alejen de un precio implícito común y eficiente.
El tercer estudio se basa en el análisis del arbitraje y utiliza la misma serie de datos intradía para examinar si es el mercado local o el extranjero el que tiene un papel más dominante en el pricing intradía de los valores de las cotizaciones cruzadas egipcias y argentinas. Los resultados muestran que los dos mercados son importantes para el proceso de revelación del precio, pero que para todos los valores egipcios y para la mayor parte de los argentinos el mercado local tiene un papel más dominante. Se ha observado que la localización de la revelación del precio depende de múltiples factores, entre los cuales la liquidez y el volumen de comercialización que cada mercado puede atraer son los más importantes.
El último estudio de esta tesis fue motivado por los resultados del tercer estudio e inspirado por los movimientos de la Primavera Árabe del Oriente Medio. La revuelta del 25 de enero vino acompañado por el cierre total de los mercados bursátiles durante dos meses enteros. Este hecho creó un escenario interesante en el cual los únicos valores egipcios que se podían comercializar eran aquellos que tenían recibos de depósito y que comercializaban en el Reino Unido. Utilizamos este hecho para examinar el efecto de un cambio en el marco legal de la locación del descubrimiento del precio y para ver que durante el período de excepción durante el cual el mercado estuvo cerrado, la localización de la revelación del precio ha pasado al mercado emergente, haciendo que este fuera la localización dominante para las actividades de pricing. Esto demuestra la naturaleza dinámica del descubrimiento de precios de los recibos de depósito. / This thesis provides an in-depth examination of the pricing behavior of depository receipts from emerging markets which have been largely overlooked despite their dominating role in the foreign cross-listing arena. Characteristics of depository receipts make them identical securities to their underlying stock and therefore both are expected to be priced equally. A detailed analysis of the issue has been so far hampered by the lack of quality intraday data from emerging markets that facilitates a real time analysis of the relationship between the prices of the depository receipt and its underlying stock. This direct examination is required since those markets have large trading barriers that are hypothesized to distort the theoretical pricing relationship and mask true pricing patterns.
The first essay examines the fundamental long run economic relationship that ties both securities: the law of one price. Recent evidence shows that contrary to developed market equities, price parity is broken in emerging market equities due to the presence of trading barriers such as trading costs, short selling restrictions and capital controls. The first essay confirms the violation of long run price parity in Egyptian depository receipts which is corroborated by robustness tests around the different weekends between the local and host market as well as around exchange rate regime shifts.
The second essay focuses on identifying whether real arbitrage opportunities exist when the underlying equilibrium pricing relationship is violated. The analysis uses a unique two year high frequency intraday dataset from 16 Egyptian and Argentinean equities to identify whether arbitrage opportunities exist during the period when both securities are simultaneously trading and establish whether arbitrage trades play a role in price convergence. The methodology used relies on a novel arbitrage identification procedure that uses dynamic trading costs and volumes. Evidence of the presence of large number of arbitrage opportunities across the sample is established. Arbitrage opportunities are found to persist for several minutes and require more than one trade to converge to no-arbitrage zones. A filtering algorithm extracts real arbitrage trades from the arbitrage trades from the dataset and establishes the important role of arbitrageurs in restoring prices to their fundamental values and in keeping prices from drifting away from a common efficient implicit price.
The third essay builds on the arbitrage analysis and uses the same intraday dataset to examine whether the local or foreign market plays a more dominant role in the intraday pricing of the Egyptian and Argentinean cross-listed securities. The results show that both markets are important for the price discovery process, but that for all of the Egyptian and most of the Argentinean securities, the local market plays a more dominant role. The location of price discovery is found to depend on several factors, most importantly the liquidity and trading volume that each market can attract.
The final essay in the thesis was motivated by the results of the third essay and inspired by the Arab spring movements in the Middle East. The 25th of January uprising in Egypt was accompanied by a full stock market closure for a complete two months. This created an interesting setting in which the only Egyptian equities that were allowed to trade were those with depository receipts trading in the UK. We use this event to examine the effect of a change in the legal environment on the location of price discovery and find that during the interim period where the local market was closed, the location of price discovery has shifted to the foreign market making it the dominant location for pricing activity. This provides evidence of the dynamic nature of the price discovery of depository receipts.
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