ABSTRACT UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT IN RESERVE ESTIMATION OF A NATURALLY FRACTURED RESERVOIR ERI&Ccedil / OK, &Ouml / zlen M.S., Department of Petroleum and Natural Gas Engineering Supervisor : Prof. Dr. Fevzi G&Uuml / MRAH December 2004, 169 pages Reservoir performance prediction and reserve estimation depend on various petrophysical parameters which have uncertainties due to available technology. For a proper and economical field development, these parameters must be determined by taking into consideration their uncertainty level and probable data ranges. For implementing uncertainty assessment on estimation of original oil in place (OOIP) of a field, a naturally fractured carbonate field, Field-A, is chosen to work with. Since field information is obtained by drilling and testing wells throughout the field, uncertainty in true ranges of reservoir parameters evolve due to impossibility of drilling every location on an area. This study is based on defining the probability distribution of uncertain variables in reserve estimation and evaluating probable reserve amount by using Monte Carlo simulation method. Probabilistic reserve estimation gives the whole range of probable v original oil in place amount of a field. The results are given by their likelyhood of occurance as P10, P50 and P90 reserves in summary. In the study, Field-A reserves at Southeast of Turkey are estimated by probabilistic methods for three producing zones / Karabogaz Formation, Kbb-C Member of Karababa formation and Derdere Formation. Probability density function of petrophysical parameters are evaluated as inputs in volumetric reserve estimation method and probable reserves are calculated by @Risk software program that is used for implementing Monte Carlo method. Outcomes of the simulation showed that Field-A has P50 reserves as 11.2 MMstb in matrix and 2.0 MMstb in fracture of Karabogaz Formation, 15.7 MMstb in matrix and 3.7 MMstb in fracture of Kbb-C Member and 10.6 MMstb in matrix and 1.6 MMstb in fracture of Derdere Formation. Sensitivity analysis of the inputs showed that matrix porosity, net thickness and fracture porosity are significant in Karabogaz Formation and Kbb-C Member reserve estimation while water saturation and fracture porosity are most significant in estimation of Derdere Formation reserves.

Orientador: Aparecido Carlos Gonçalves / Resumo: A falha catastrófica de caixas de engrenagens acarreta em perdas de produção e custos de manutenção. O elemento mecânico que mais falha em uma caixa de engrenagens é o próprio par engrenado. Estas falhas geralmente ocorrem devido a defeitos pontuais nos dentes como desgaste severo e presença de trincas, contrariando os fatores de segurança previamente definidos por normas referentes aos critérios de falhas em engrenagens. O monitoramento da condição do par engrenado busca avaliar parâmetros representativos dos mecanismos de falha do par engrenado. As técnicas de monitoramento da condição mais utilizadas são a análise de vibrações e análise de lubrificantes. Este trabalho realiza uma revisão bibliográfica de técnicas de monitoramento da condição. A parte experimental consiste na avaliação de uma bancada sob três condições: desgaste severo ao longo da vida útil da engrenagem; engrenagem entalhada para simulação de trinca; engrenagem com variação do entalhe para simulação de uma propagação de trinca. A condição da bancada foi avaliada utilizando técnicas de tratamento de sinais de vibração como TSA, sinal residual, demodulação temporal e análise estatística via PDF beta e; técnicas de análise de lubrificantes como contagem de partículas e espectrometrias de raios-x e infravermelho. Todas as técnicas se mostraram adequadas na avaliação da evolução do desgaste excetuando a espectrometria de infravermelho. Apenas as técnicas de vibração se mostraram adequadas para identificar a pre... (Resumo completo, clicar acesso eletrônico abaixo) / Abstract: The catastrophic failure of gearboxes results in production losses and maintenance costs. The mechanical component that most fails in gearboxes are the gears. These failures usually occur before the end of useful life projected by criteria of failure standards due teeth defects as severe wear and cracking. The condition monitoring of gearboxes evaluates parameters which can indicate the mechanism of failure in process in the gear. The most commonly used monitoring techniques of gearboxes are vibration analysis and lubricant analysis. Firstly, this work performs a bibliographic review of condition monitoring techniques. The experimental analysis consists of the evaluation of an experimental workbench under three conditions: severe wear throughout the life of the gear; notched gear for crack simulation and; gear with variation of notch for simulation of a crack propagation. The workbench condition was evaluated using vibration signal treatment techniques such as TSA, Residual Signal, Demodulation, Statistical Moments, Crest Factor and Statistical Analysis using PDF beta and; techniques for analyzing lubricants such as particle counting and x-ray and infrared spectrometry. All the techniques were adequate to evaluate the evolution of wear except infrared spectrometry. Only the vibration techniques were adequate to identify the presence an evolution of the notch. Statistical analysis using PDF beta was useful to identify the degradation of a tooth as the notch size evolved. / Mestre

Submitted by Marcelo Braga Covo (mcovo@ibiunainvest.com.br) on 2015-03-17T16:48:46Z No. of bitstreams: 1 tesecovo.pdf: 385739 bytes, checksum: 253e4c0b5c2b22775f64b6e31b4c0cea (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by GILSON ROCHA MIRANDA (gilson.miranda@fgv.br) on 2015-04-07T14:13:51Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 tesecovo.pdf: 385739 bytes, checksum: 253e4c0b5c2b22775f64b6e31b4c0cea (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Marcia Bacha (marcia.bacha@fgv.br) on 2015-04-08T17:19:58Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 tesecovo.pdf: 385739 bytes, checksum: 253e4c0b5c2b22775f64b6e31b4c0cea (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-04-08T17:20:13Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 tesecovo.pdf: 385739 bytes, checksum: 253e4c0b5c2b22775f64b6e31b4c0cea (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009-06-01 / Este trabalho demonstra como podemos usar opções sobre o Índice de Taxa Média de Depósitos Interfinanceiros de Um Dia (IDI) para extrair a função densidade de probabilidade (FDP) para os próximos passos do Comitê de Política Monetária (COPOM). Como a decisão do COPOM tem uma natureza discreta, podemos estimar a FDP usando Mínimo Quadrados Ordinários (MQO). Esta técnica permite incluir restrições sobre as probabilidades estimadas. As probabilidades calculadas usando opções sobre IDI são então comparadas com as probabilidades encontradas usando o Futuro de DI e as probabilidades calculadas através de pesquisas. / This paper demonstrates how options on the One-day Brazilian Interfinancial Deposits Index (IDI) can be used to recover the implied probability density function (PDF) for futures Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) outcomes. The discrete nature of the choices made by the COPOM allows recovering the PDF using ordinary least squares (OLS) estimation. This method also allows the imposition of restrictions on the recovered probabilities. Recovered probabilities using options on IDI are then compared to the probabilities obtained using the futures on DI and the probabilities recovered by surveys.

Submitted by CARLOS EDUARDO SGOTTI (carlos.sgotti@hotmail.com) on 2018-04-27T18:42:48Z No. of bitstreams: 1 2018_Sgotti_Dissertação_Mestrado.pdf: 10994360 bytes, checksum: 90aa52990d9db0b33dd9950ddfb58289 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Cristina Alexandra de Godoy null (cristina@adm.feis.unesp.br) on 2018-04-27T19:11:29Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 sgotti_ce_me_ilha.pdf: 10994360 bytes, checksum: 90aa52990d9db0b33dd9950ddfb58289 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-04-27T19:11:29Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 sgotti_ce_me_ilha.pdf: 10994360 bytes, checksum: 90aa52990d9db0b33dd9950ddfb58289 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-02-28 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / A falha catastrófica de caixas de engrenagens acarreta em perdas de produção e custos de manutenção. O elemento mecânico que mais falha em uma caixa de engrenagens é o próprio par engrenado. Estas falhas geralmente ocorrem devido a defeitos pontuais nos dentes como desgaste severo e presença de trincas, contrariando os fatores de segurança previamente definidos por normas referentes aos critérios de falhas em engrenagens. O monitoramento da condição do par engrenado busca avaliar parâmetros representativos dos mecanismos de falha do par engrenado. As técnicas de monitoramento da condição mais utilizadas são a análise de vibrações e análise de lubrificantes. Este trabalho realiza uma revisão bibliográfica de técnicas de monitoramento da condição. A parte experimental consiste na avaliação de uma bancada sob três condições: desgaste severo ao longo da vida útil da engrenagem; engrenagem entalhada para simulação de trinca; engrenagem com variação do entalhe para simulação de uma propagação de trinca. A condição da bancada foi avaliada utilizando técnicas de tratamento de sinais de vibração como TSA, sinal residual, demodulação temporal e análise estatística via PDF beta e; técnicas de análise de lubrificantes como contagem de partículas e espectrometrias de raios-x e infravermelho. Todas as técnicas se mostraram adequadas na avaliação da evolução do desgaste excetuando a espectrometria de infravermelho. Apenas as técnicas de vibração se mostraram adequadas para identificar a presença do entalhe. A análise estatística via PDF beta se mostrou útil para identificar a degradação de um dente conforme evolui o tamanho do entalhe. / The catastrophic failure of gearboxes results in production losses and maintenance costs. The mechanical component that most fails in gearboxes are the gears. These failures usually occur before the end of useful life projected by criteria of failure standards due teeth defects as severe wear and cracking. The condition monitoring of gearboxes evaluates parameters which can indicate the mechanism of failure in process in the gear. The most commonly used monitoring techniques of gearboxes are vibration analysis and lubricant analysis. Firstly, this work performs a bibliographic review of condition monitoring techniques. The experimental analysis consists of the evaluation of an experimental workbench under three conditions: severe wear throughout the life of the gear; notched gear for crack simulation and; gear with variation of notch for simulation of a crack propagation. The workbench condition was evaluated using vibration signal treatment techniques such as TSA, Residual Signal, Demodulation, Statistical Moments, Crest Factor and Statistical Analysis using PDF beta and; techniques for analyzing lubricants such as particle counting and x-ray and infrared spectrometry. All the techniques were adequate to evaluate the evolution of wear except infrared spectrometry. Only the vibration techniques were adequate to identify the presence an evolution of the notch. Statistical analysis using PDF beta was useful to identify the degradation of a tooth as the notch size evolved.

Multiphase flows are of great interest to a large variety of industries because flows of two or more immiscible liquids are encountered in a diverse range of processes and equipment. However, the advent of high viscosity oil requires more investigations to enhance good design of transportation system and forestall its inherent production difficulties. Experimental and numerical studies were conducted on water-sand, oil-water and oilwater- sand respectively in 1-in ID 5m long horizontal pipe. The densities of CYL680 and CYL1000 oils employed are 917 and 916.2kg/m3 while their viscosities are 1.830 and 3.149Pa.s @ 25oC respectively. The solid-phase concentration ranged from 2.15e-04 to 10%v/v with mean diameter of 150micron and material density of 2650kg/m3. Experimentally, the observed flow patterns are Water Assist Annular (WA-ANN), Dispersed Oil in Water (DOW/OF), Oil Plug in Water (OPW/OF) with oil film on the wall and Water Plug in Oil (WPO). These configurations were obtained through visualisation, trend and the probability density function (PDF) of pressure signals along with the statistical moments. Injection of water to assist high viscosity oil transport reduced the pressure gradient by an order of magnitude. No significant differences were found between the gradients of oil-water and oil-water-sand, however, increase in sand concentration led to increase in the pressure losses in oil-water-sand flow. Numerically, Water Assist Annular (WA-ANN), Dispersed Oil in Water (DOW/OF), Oil Plug in Water (OPW/OF) with oil film on the wall, and Water Plug in Oil (WPO) flow pattern were successfully obtained by imposing a concentric inlet condition at the inlet of the horizontal pipe coupled with a newly developed turbulent kinetic energy budget equation coded as user defined function which was hooked up to the turbulence models. These modifications aided satisfactory predictions.

Current climate models often predict fractional cloud cover on the basis of a diagnostic probability density function (PDF) describing the subgrid-scale variability of the total water specific humidity, qt, favouring schemes with limited complexity. Standard shapes are uniform or triangular PDFs the width of which is assumed to scale with the gridbox mean qt or the grid-box mean saturation specific humidity, qs. In this study, the qt variability is analysed from large-eddy simulations for two stratocumulus, two shallow cumulus, and one deep convective cases. We find that in most cases, triangles are a better approximation to the simulated PDFs than uniform distributions. In two of the 24 slices examined, the actual distributions were so strongly skewed that the simple symmetric shapes could not capture the PDF at all. The distribution width for either shape scales acceptably well with both the mean value of qt and qs, the former being a slightly better choice. The qt variance is underestimated by the fitted PDFs, but overestimated by the existing parameterisations. While the cloud fraction is in general relatively well diagnosed from fitted or parameterised uniform or triangular PDFs, it fails to capture cases with small partial cloudiness, and in 10 – 30% of the cases misdiagnoses clouds in clear skies or vice-versa. The results suggest choosing a parameterisation with a triangular shape, where the distribution width would scale with the grid-box mean qt using a scaling factor of 0.076. This, however, is subject to the caveat that the reference simulations examined here were partly for rather small domains and driven by idealised boundary conditions.

It is known that a matched filter is optimal for a signal corrupted by Gaussian noise. In a wireless environment, the received signal may be corrupted by Gaussian noise and a variety of other channel disturbances: cochannel interference, multiple access interference, large and small-scale fading, etc. Adaptive filtering is the usual approach to mitigating this channel distortion. Existing adaptive filtering techniques usually attempt to minimize the mean square error (MSE) of some aspect of the received signal, with respect to the desired aspect of that signal. Adaptive minimization of MSE does not always guarantee minimization of bit error rate (BER). The main focus of this research involves estimation of the probability density function (PDF) of the received signal; this PDF estimate is used to adaptively determine a solution that minimizes BER. To this end, a new adaptive procedure called the Minimum BER Estimation (MBE) algorithm has been developed. MBE shows improvement over the Least Mean Squares (LMS) algorithm for most simulations involving interference and in some multipath situations. Furthermore, the new algorithm is more robust than LMS to changes in algorithm parameters such as stepsize and window width. / Master of Science

No description available.

Emerging Ultra Wideband (UWB) Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM) systems hold the promise of delivering wireless data at high speeds, exceeding hundreds of megabits per second over typical distances of 10 meters or less. The purpose of this Thesis is to estimate the timing accuracies required with such systems in order to achieve Bit Error Rates (BER) of the order of magnitude of 10-12 and thereby avoid overloading the correction of irreducible errors due to misaligned timing errors to a small absolute number of bits in error in real-time relative to a data rate of hundreds of megabits per second. Our research approach involves managing bit error rates through identifying maximum timing synchronization errors. Thus, it became our research goal to determine the timing accuracies required to avoid operation of communication systems within the asymptotic region of BER flaring at low BERs in the resultant BER curves. We propose pushing physical layer bit error rates to below 10-12 before using forward error correction (FEC) codes. This way, the maximum reserve is maintained for the FEC hardware to correct for burst as well as recurring bit errors due to corrupt bits caused by other than timing synchronization errors.

Yes / The broadcast nature of wireless local area networks has made them prone to several types of wireless injection attacks, such as Man-in-the-Middle (MitM) at the physical layer, deauthentication, and rogue access point attacks. The implementation of novel intrusion detection systems (IDSs) is fundamental to provide stronger protection against these wireless injection attacks. Since most attacks manifest themselves through different metrics, current IDSs should leverage a cross-layer approach to help toward improving the detection accuracy. The data fusion technique based on the Dempster–Shafer (D-S) theory has been proven to be an efficient technique to implement the cross-layer metric approach. However, the dynamic generation of the basic probability assignment (BPA) values used by D-S is still an open research problem. In this paper, we propose a novel unsupervised methodology to dynamically generate the BPA values, based on both the Gaussian and exponential probability density functions, the categorical probability mass function, and the local reachability density. Then, D-S is used to fuse the BPA values to classify whether the Wi-Fi frame is normal (i.e., non-malicious) or malicious. The proposed methodology provides 100% true positive rate (TPR) and 4.23% false positive rate (FPR) for the MitM attack and 100% TPR and 2.44% FPR for the deauthentication attack, which confirm the efficiency of the dynamic BPA generation methodology. / Gulf Science, Innovation and Knowledge Economy Programme of the U.K. Government under UK-Gulf Institutional Link Grant IL 279339985 and in part by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC), U.K., under Grant EP/R006385/1.