This thesis examines the role of corporate power in the decision making and regulatory processes for major hazard sites in the UK. In particular, emphasis is placed on the role of risk analytical techniques and the associated use of technical expertise in the public inquiry process by focusing on two areas, Canvey Island (Essex) and Ellesmere Port (Cheshire), over a twenty year period. Evidence shows that the ability of public groups to intervene effectively in the decision making process varies both .spatially and temporally. In order to set this data within a theoretical framework the analysis of public inquiries in these areas takes place in the context of three competing perspectives on power, namely pluralist, elitist and Marxist. Through the use of a number of mediating concepts the three theoretical persectives on power are married to the empirical data derived for the two areas. The research shows that each of the perspectives fails to provide an adequate explanation for events. Against this background some of the models of scientific expertise within decision making are evaluated and it is suggested that such models need to be set in a wider economic and social framework than had previously been allowed for by some authors. It is argued that risk analysis can be used to support the interests of powerful groups and as a consequence its validity as an input into decision making needs to be subjected to more critical scrutiny than has previously been the case. The thesis concludes by making a number of recommendations for the various bodies involved in making judgements about major hazards.

There is now unequivocal evidence that dietary behaviour is related to illness and risk of chronic diseases such as cardiovascular disease and cancer. Attempts to improve the nation's diet are based on providing information, assuming that given more information, the public will choose healthier diets. Many studies indicate, however, that nutrition knowledge has little association with dietary behaviour; but a review of the literature reveals that nutrition knowledge has been inadequately measured. In addition, dietary behaviour has been assessed in terms of food intake and not in relation to changes in, or readiness to change, food intake. Following the Introduction, this research begins, in Chapter 2, by reviewing the literature measuring nutrition knowledge. It is found that while many studies measure knowledge, typically the measure forms only part of the study which assesses either a particular subpopulation or a particular aspect of nutrition. In consequence, questionnaires are designed for a one-off and specific purpose and little attention is paid to the psychometric properties of the instrument. Dietary behaviour is measured with one of the well-established methods of assessing intake, the problems of which are acknowledged in the literature. Chapter 3 describes these methods with their shortcomings and use in psychological research. In response to these reviews, a comprehensive nutrition knowledge questionnaire was developed (in 1994) and intake was conceptualised in terms of dietary change, in keeping with psychologists' role in nutrition. Following the development and pilot study of this questionnaire (Chapter 4), its validity and reliability were assessed further in Chapter 5, with positive results. Significant differences were found between criterion groups (dietetic and computer science students), providing evidence of construct validity. Internal consistency correlations ranged from 0.50 to 0.92 and test-retest reliability correlations ranged from 0.80 to 0.98. This measure was then used (Chapter 6) to assess the level of nutrition knowledge among a large representative sample of British adults in a postal survey (in 1995). Nutrition knowledge was found to be poor concerning the dietary recommendations for meat, starchy foods, fruit and vegetables; the different types of fat (saturated, poly- and monounsaturated); and associations between diet and diseases, such as fruit and vegetables, heart disease and cancer. Both stages of change (using Prochaska and DiClemente's model) and consumption of fat, fruit and vegetables (to test the stages' validity) were also assessed as measures of dietary behaviour. Most respondents replied that they had been limiting their fat intake for more than 6 months, but not been thinking of increasing their fruit and vegetable intake. Multivariate analyses showed that being female, having more educational qualifications and being in a higher socioeconomic class were predictive of knowing more about nutrition and having a healthier dietary behaviour. Relationships between nutrition knowledge, stages of change and dietary intake were examined in Chapter 7 and significant associations identified. In contrast to this cross-sectional research, the final study in Chapter 8 was longitudinal and examined changes in nutrition knowledge and dietary behaviour over a one-year period (from 1993 to 1994). This study aimed to provide information on the extent to which healthier changes in dietary intake are related to increases in nutrition knowledge. While changes occurred in dietary intake (fat and sugar intake decreased significantly, the increases in fruit and vegetable consumption were insignificant), knowledge scores remained unchanged. The final chapter discusses the key findings of this research, its implications and areas worthy of future investigation. For example, the results from this research suggest that knowledge is an important factor in food choice and should not be discounted as a part of health promotion. It may also be useful to integrate the construct of knowledge into the social cognition models of dietary choice or indeed to develop a new model to include knowledge along with motivational constructs from the social cognition models.

This thesis presents a normative yet practical account of how Scots and English criminal law should assess the culpability of careless persons. At present, the law in both jurisdictions distinguishes between two types of culpable, unjustified risktaking: recklessness and negligence. In everyday language, these concepts have blurred edges: persons are labelled “reckless” or “negligent” with little thought to the difference, if any, that exists between these terms. Although unproblematic in the “everyday” context, this laxity in definition is inappropriate in the criminal courtroom. Negligence is not usually a sufficient form of culpability for serious offences, whilst recklessness typically is. In the most serious crimes, recklessness thus marks the limit of criminal liability. The concept ought, therefore, to be well understood and developed. Unfortunately, courts both north and south of the border have had difficulty defining and distinguishing between recklessness and negligence. This thesis explores the resulting jurisprudential quagmires and contends that, in both jurisdictions, the absence of a visible theory of culpable carelessness accounts for the courts’ difficulties. It then looks to criminal law theory to construct a defensible account of culpable carelessness which can distinguish clearly between recklessness and negligence and explain the circumstances in which the latter ought to be criminally culpable. Finally, the thesis considers the practical implications of this theory.

Does the way people earn money affect their economic decisions? The main contribution of this thesis is to provide new evidence that the way people earn money affects their decision-making. Standard economic theory generally assumes that money is fungible – that is, each unit of money is a perfect substitute for another. Fungibility thus predicts that source of income should have no influence on individual decision-making. On the other hand, Prospect theory determines the value of same prospect as gain or loss relative to the reference point. Prospect theory predicts a significant source of income on individual decision-making if source of income shifts the reference point. This thesis has focused on investigating whether source of income affects (a) individual risk-preference, which governs individual decision-making under risk; and (b) individual time-preference, which governs individual intertemporal decision-making. From a series of real-effort laboratory experiments, I find that subjects are more risk-averse and more patient concerning hard-earned money than with easily earned money consistent with Prospect theory and loss aversion.

In this thesis, we are concerned with the finite-time ruin probabilities in two alternative dependent risk models, the insurance risk model and the dual risk model, including the numerical evaluation of the explicit expressions for these quantities and the application of the probabilistic results obtained. We first investigate the numerical properties of the formulas for the finite-time ruin probability derived by Ignatov and Kaishev (2000, 2004) and Ignatov et al. (2001) for a generalized insurance risk model allowing dependence. Efficient numerical algorithms are proposed for computing the ruin probability with a prescribed accuracy in order to facilitate the following studies. We then propose a new definition of alarm time in the insurance risk model, which generalizes that of Das and Kratz (2012), expressed in terms of the joint distribution of the time to ruin and the deficit at ruin. The alarm time is devised to warn that the future ruin probability within a finite-time window has reached a pre-specified critical level and capital injection is required. Due to our definition, the implementation of the alarm time highly relies on the computation of the finite-time ruin probability, which utilizes the previous results on computing the ruin probability with a prescribed accuracy. The results of the ruin probability and the alarm time are then transferred nicely to a generalized dual risk model, whose name stems from its duality to the insurance risk model, through an enlightening link established between the two risk models. Finally, based on the two alternative risk models, we introduce a framework for analyzing the risk of systems failure based on estimating the failure probability, and illustrate how the probabilistic models and results obtained can be applied as risk analytic tools in various practical risk assessment situations, such as systems reliability, inventory management, flood control via dam management, infection disease spread and financial insolvency.

This thesis applies an ethnographic, qualitative research approach to a central question: In what ways does the presence of cognitive biases impact negatively on project management decision-making in the film industry? Are there ways that biases can best be avoided or at least reduced? This thesis cites evidence that managers are consistently unable to devise ways of effectively escaping the impact of cognitive bias, and that the majority are unaware of potential negative bias. My study explores whether and in what ways a deep knowledge of cognitive bias helps surmount the apparent limitations it imposes. My findings suggest that strategies involving cognitive behavioural theory provide researchers with significant insights into our understanding of creative management strategies to manage projects. Building on an extensive body of literature focused on biases in decision-making and their impact on forecasting, implementation and strategy, my thesis explores the concept that deep-seated cognitive habits have a direct impact on entrepreneurs’ ability to manage creative projects successfully. Drawing on my ethnographic and participant observer data over two decades of film industry research and practitioner-derived experience, I examine how useful cognitive bias theory is from a practical perspective. The film industry provides a rich seam of research and an intriguing case site. It provides a relevant environment to interrogate because film companies are essentially organised around projects. I cite evidence that suggests that managers capable of ‘switching gears’ and who openly acknowledge and embrace the role cognition plays in the leadership process gain both a creative and a competitive advantage. By testing this concept through the lens of the value chain model, we can begin to develop a cognitive methodology that inspires practical tools capable of navigating uncertainty and capturing value and knowledge.

Risk reduction processes in healthcare remain at the core of 21st century health care provision, though the continuing scale of the problem gives little room for complacency. While other areas of complex technological activity such as air transportation can demonstrate improvements in safety performance, comparable progress eludes modern healthcare. A review of risk reduction techniques within healthcare identifies that there exists a lack of tools involving simulation of risk. It has been necessary in the context of the research to establish many wholly original information structures representing healthcare activity and associated risk related interactions This Thesis describes a new risk simulation environment for the Critical Care Unit of University Hospital, Coventry which is a 1200 bed modern acute hospital which fully opened in 2006. Available sets of patient admission/discharge information and records of patient treatment records used for cost charging together with extensive direct observation of clinical activity are used to create simulated patient episodes within the Critical Care environment. Specific patient interventions are sub divided into a series of up to 7 sub tasks which are associated with sub competencies and a linked adverse effect. Such sub competencies can be coded to reflect three levels of task complexity. Separate codes can be allocated to identify sub competencies which are supervised and sub competencies for which additional competency can be requested from other team members. A fuzzy logic framework has been adopted to combine empirically derived mathematical functions which for a specific sub task, translate values of individual effectiveness, distraction, competency mismatch of individual/team together with the level of supervision to a specific risk value for each adverse effect. This fuzzy logic framework, referenced as the ‘risk engine’ has specific responses for levels of sub task complexity and can be modified by indicators relating to sub task supervision and competency sharing. In addition, each sub task/competency is associated with an adverse effect whose probability of occurrence can be reduced through identified safe working practices which are referenced as ‘preventive measures’. Individual effectiveness is identified as being influenced by cirdadian rhythm, physical effort, emotional/stress effort, intellectual effort, sleep deficit and long term factors. Organisational factors influencing individual effectiveness are identified as patient admission and shift handover. The risk simulation process is implemented within a 10 bed Critical Care Unit which utilises a specifically designed nurse rostering process for 12 hour shift periods. Sub grades of nurse skills (1 to 15) are used to structure skill mix within each rostered group and which are based on representative nurse grades (band 5, 6 and 7). Available competencies of nursing staff for a specific sub task are allocated on the basis of sub grade value and the parameter of individual competency mismatch is derived from values of required competency and available competency for each sub task. The team competency mismatch for a specific sub task linked to a specific individual is derived from the maximum available competency within the active nursing team. Nursing staff are allocated to patients on the basis of clinical need at the start of each shift. A novel feature of the model identifies modes of interaction between nursing individuals on a ‘bed to bed’ basis as relating to parameters of distraction, supervision and competency sharing and which are related to the physical layout of the active clinical area. A fuzzy logic sub system for determining values of such interaction coefficients and which uses the same design methodology as the ‘risk engine’ is described.

Real estates are valued all the time in order to give buyers, sellers, lenders, and investors decision support for various situations. The property sector is the Swedish banks' biggest borrowers and properties are often used as collaterals against loans. That is why it is so important that the valuation of properties is done correctly. The most used method to valuing investment properties is to discount future cash flows. But predicting the future is always associated with uncertainty, and the heterogeneous properties are associated with risks. This study will therefore treat the need for a clearer description of the uncertainties and risks associated with property valuation. The study is based on literature and previous research, which forms the theoretical framework. Where three main categories, proposed by the RICS, for how risk and uncertainty can be presented in fairness opinions are explained. The three recommended categories for presentation are: verbal, ranking, and statistically.In order to achieve the desired result a qualitative method has been used, in order to bring deeper understanding and greater knowledge of the researched subject. This qualitative approach was accomplished by an interview study with semi-structured questions to appraisers, real estate companies, and banking institutions. The respondents were divided, based on duties, in two subgroups: providers and clients. One problem that we wanted to answer with this study was how the need between these groups differed. The results showed that it did not differ significantly, but the need increases and decreases for both groups when specific types of properties should be valued and in special situations. One of the main causes, creating uncertainty, is costs based on average assumptions which affect the net operating income and thus the value of the property. The result shows that there is an interest for a standardized method regarding the management of risk and uncertainty. However, there is a great skepticism in how the realization of such a method would be done. Which partially can explain why such methods have not been developed. At the same time, providers and clients of valuation reports believes that there is enough information and that they have the knowledge required to make their own conclusions about risk and uncertainty.

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published_or_final_version / Business Administration / Master / Master of Business Administration