Submitted by Renata Lopes (renatasil82@gmail.com) on 2016-09-12T20:15:40Z No. of bitstreams: 1 taianyabreusoares.pdf: 2853882 bytes, checksum: 995c5563db2de673ae46d3577d5bc5a5 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Diamantino Mayra (mayra.diamantino@ufjf.edu.br) on 2016-09-13T12:32:05Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 taianyabreusoares.pdf: 2853882 bytes, checksum: 995c5563db2de673ae46d3577d5bc5a5 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-09-13T12:32:05Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 taianyabreusoares.pdf: 2853882 bytes, checksum: 995c5563db2de673ae46d3577d5bc5a5 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-02-07 / As principais razões para realizar uma abertura de capital são que as ofertas de ações são uma opção de financiamento mais barata para algumas empresas (dados seus atributos), a governança corporativa trazida pela estrutruta de propriedade pública minimiza os conflitos de agência, a transparência e a boa imagem da empresa (comportamento estratégico) aumentam o valor da empresa no mercado e a reestruturação societária pode gerar mais liquidez para a empresa. Entretanto, para algumas empresas de capital fechado, a questão não é se ela deve abrir ou não o capital, mas sim quando, ou seja, qual o momento mais apropriado (timing) para realizar o IPO. Nesse contexto, o presente trabalho teve por objetivo adaptar, para o caso brasileiro, o modelo de timing de IPO desenvolvido por Draho (2000), que utiliza a teoria das opções reais como metodologia para se determinar o timing ótimo da abertura de capitais. Para tanto, foram analisadas oito empresas do setor de energia (CPFL, EDP, Cosan, Brasil Ecodiesel, São Martinho, Açúcar Guarani, MPX e OGX) que, durante o período 2000-2009, realizaram a sua oferta pública primária. Como resultado, encontrou-se que todas as empresas estudadas anteciparam o timing da sua oferta e, assim, foi realizada uma análise sobre as características das ofertas públicas primárias das empresas com o objetivo de identificar potenciais determinantes de tal antecipação. Observou-se, como característica comum, a presença de capital de risco na estrutura de capital de todas as empresas e de muitos investidores otimistas (investidores externos à empresa, segundo o modelo de Bouis, 2003) interessados nos IPOs das empresas. Adicionalmente, tem-se que o período da amostra (anos de valorização da bolsa de valores brasileira, que antecederam a crise subprime deflagrada em 2008) pode ter também contribuído para tal resultado. / The main reasons addressed to warrant the opening of capital are the initial public offerings (IPO) are cheaper financing option for some companies (according to their attributes), the corporate governance brought by public-owned minimizing agency conflicts, transparency and good image of the company (strategic behavior) increases the value of their market and corporate restructuring can generate more liquidity for the company. However, for some private companies it is not a question of why go public, but rather what the most appropriate time to conduct the IPO. In this context, this study aimed to adapt to the Brazilian case, the model of the IPO timing developed by Draho (2000), which uses the real options theory as a method to determine the optimal timing for an IPO. For this, were analyzed eight Brazilian energy companies (CPFL, EDP, Cosan, Brazil Ecodiesel, St. Martin, Açúcar Guarani, MPX and OGX) that held their primary offering during the period 2000-2009. As a result, we found that all the companies studied had anticipated their timing of IPO and thus, an analysis over characteristics of primary public offerings of companies was performed with the aim of identifying the main reasons for the anticipation. It was observed as common feature the presence of venture capital in the capital structure of all companies and many optimistic investors (investors outside the company, according to the model Bouis, 2003) interested in IPOs of companies. Additionally, the sample period (year of valuation of the Brazilian stock exchange, which preceded the subprime crisis erupted in 2008) may have also contributed to this result.

Tax uncertainty is often claimed to be harmful for investments. Capital taxes, such as property and wealth taxes, are particularly exposed to tax uncertainty. Capital tax un- certainty emerges from expected tax reforms, the unclear outcome of future tax audits, and simplified estimates of capital tax bases in investment models. Uncertain returns on investment as well as stochastic taxation contribute to overall uncertainty and may significantly affect investment decisions. Hitherto, it is unknown how capital tax uncertainty affects investment timing. However, it is well known that both uncertainty and capital tax may be harmful for investment and decelerate investment activities. We are the first to study the investment timing effects of stochastic capital taxes in a real options setting with risky investment opportunities. Our results indicate that even risk neutral investors are sensitive with respect to capital tax risk and may react in a surprising manner to a newly introduced stochastic capital tax. As an apparently paradoxical investment e¤ect, we find that increased capital tax uncertainty can accelerate risky investment if such uncertainty is such ciently low compared to cash flow uncertainty. In contrast, high capital tax risk delays high-risk innovative investment projects. To reduce unintended consequences of uncertain tax policy, tax legislators and tax authorities should avoid high levels of cap- ital tax uncertainty. Broadening the capital tax base or increasing the capital tax rate induces ambiguous timing effects. Furthermore, high-growth investments are likely to be postponed if they experience a capital tax cut. Since investment reactions upon tax reforms are well-known to affect income and wealth distribution, reliable estimations of the impact of taxes on economic decisions are necessary. (authors' abstract) / Series: WU International Taxation Research Paper Series

This thesis investigates methodologies for valuing the flexibility of demand-side response (DSR) in its ability to respond to future uncertainties. The ability to quantify this flexibility is especially important for energy systems investments given their large and irreversible capital costs. The consideration of uncertainty in electricity markets and energy networks requires solutions that allow decision makers to quickly respond to unexpected events, such as extreme short-term electricity price variations in an operational setting, or incorrect long-term demand projections in planning. This uncertainty, coupled with the irreversibility of energy network investments, results in the need for viable 'wait-and-see' investment strategies that can help hedge electicity price risk in the short-term while hedging planning risk in the long-term, until at least some, if not all, uncertainty is resolved. In both cases, this leads to an added value in the case of temporary flexible investment options like DSR, which may otherwise be considered unattractive under a deterministic analysis setting. A number of significant contributions to power systems research are offered in this work, focusing on valuation methods for quantifying the flexibility value of DSR under both short-term and long-term uncertainty. The first outcome of this research is an extensive review of current real options (RO) methods that clarifies the assumptions and utilization of RO for decision-making in engineering applications. It suggests that many of the assumptions used contribute to a misuse of the models when applied to physical systems. A framework for investing under uncertainty is proposed, where the methodologies, steps, inputs, assumptions, limitations and advantages of different RO models are described so as to offer a practical guide to decision makers for selecting the most appropriate RO model for their valuation purposes. The second outcome is the design of a probabilistic RO framework and operational model for DSR that quantifies its benefits as an energy service for hedging different market price risks. A mathematical formulation for applying “real options thinking” is presented that provides decision makers with a means of quantifying the value of DSR when both operational and planning decisions are subject to uncertainty. In particular, DSR contracts can have tremendous value as an arbitrage or portfolio-balancing tool, helping hedge almost entirely electricity price risk in day-ahead and real-time markets, especially when prices are highly volatile. This value is quantified using a novel RO framework that frees the decision maker from the assumptions needed in financial option models. A new load forecasting and price simulation model is also developed to forecast load profiles and simulate new price series with different average values, higher volatilities and extreme price spikes to represent potential future market scenarios and to determine under which conditions DSR has the most value. The valuation of a DSR investment is then presented to show how the physical characteristics of a system, in this case the physical load recovery effect of loads after a DSR activation, can tremendously affect the profitability of an investment when uncertainty is taken into account. The third outcome of this work is the development of a complete, general and practical tool for making long-term multi-staged investment decisions in future power networks under multiple uncertainties. It is argued throughout this work that many of the current methods are either unsuitable for long-term investment valuation or are too complex for practical application and implementation at the industry level. A strategic spreadsheet-based tool for making long-term investment decisions under uncertainty is therefore created and tested in collaboration with industry for solving real network planning problems.

Electricity transmission network investments are playing a key role in the integration process of power systems in the European Union. Given the magnitude of investment costs, their irreversibility, and their impact in the overall development of a region, accounting for the role of uncertainties as well as the involvement of multiple parties in the decision process allows for improved and more robust investment decisions. Even though the creation of this internal energy market requires attention to flexibility and strategic decision-making, existing literature and practitioners have not given proper attention to these topics. Using portfolios of real options, we present two stochastic mixed integer linear programming models for transmission network expansion planning. We study the importance of explicitly addressing uncertainties, the option to postpone decisions and other sources of flexibility in the design of transmission networks. In a case study based on the Azores archipelago we show how renewables penetration can increase by introducing contingency planning into the decision process considering generation capacity uncertainty. We also present a two-party Nash-Coase bargaining transmission capacity investment model. We illustrate optimal fair share cost allocation policies with a case study based on the Iberian market. Lastly, we develop a new model that considers both interconnection expansion planning under uncertainty and cross-border cost allocation based on portfolios of real options and Nash-Coase bargaining. The model is illustrated using Iberian transmission and market data.

This diploma work is intended for estimation of value of investment project in the field of special chemical industry. The theoretical part contains brief overview of existing classic evaluating methods and a description of relatively new real options method. The evaluation by itself consists of NPV determination and sensitivity analysis for input parameters. After that, there is an application of real options tool for evaluating of project's flexibility. The possible conclusion of this work is that real options are effective tool to apply in addition to classic methods of investment evaluation.

This thesis is intended to contribute to policy analysis on nuclear energy planning, and also as a contribution to applied mathematics. From point of view of nuclear policy analysis, this thesis is not designed to offer realistic detail on nuclear engineering itself, which is of second order relative to our chosen problem. The goal is to address some large scale problems in the management of the world stocks of two important nuclear fuels, Uranium (an economically finite natural resource) and Plutonium (the result at first of policies for Uranium burning, and later of policies on fast reactor breeding). This thesis assumes, as a ‘political’ working hypothesis, that at some future time world governments will agree urgently to decarbonise the world economy. Up to that point, assuming no previous large progress towards decarbonisation, basic world electricity consumption will have continued to grow at its historic average of 1.9% compound. This rate is hypothetically a combination of slower growth in the developed world and faster growth in the developing world. On this hypothesis, a necessary but not sufficient condition for decarbonising the economy would be the complete decarbonisation of future basic electricity demand, plus the provision of sufficient extra decarbonised electricity supply to take over powering all land transport. The demand for electricity for land transport at any time is assumed to equal (in line with historical experience) an increment of approximately 20% above the contemporary basic world demand for electricity. The hypothetical scenario for achieving this model of decarbonisation, without major stress to the worlds economic and social system, is to expand nuclear power to meet the whole of basic electricity demand. This would leave intermittent renewable sources to power the intermittent electricity demands of road transport.This thesis explores the above hypothetical future in various ways. We first list published forecasts of future Uranium use and future Uranium supply. These suggest that presently known Uranium reserves can meet demand for many decades. However on extrapolating the cumulative demand for Uranium that results from the above working hypothesis, we find that if a dash to decarbonise world electricity supply begins immediately, this would consume a very large multiple of presently known Uranium reserves. Sustaining that decarbonisation for only a few more decades of demand growth would consume further large multiples of the known Uranium supply. A delay in the start of the dash for decarbonisation by only a few decades greatly increases the cumulative Uranium demand needed to reach decarbonisation even briefly.Therefore the sustained achievement of decarbonisation, in a world economy of the historical type, requires such large Uranium resources that a successor fuel cycle is required. This thesis models only the case of a Uranium-based fast reactor fuel cycle, since this cycle can in principle consume all the cumulative past and future Plutonium stockpile, and can then meet its own Plutonium needs for a long period (hundreds or thousands of years), allowing ample time for economic adjustment. However a commercially effective fast reactor technology is some decades away.Up to this point, the thesis has only added two physical factors to the existing debate on Uranium needs: namely cumulative growth of electricity demand at its historic rate, and a political choice for 100% physical decarbonisation of the electricity supply.The mathematical and economic contribution of the thesis then begins. We ask the following questions:1. Under what circumstances would profit-maximising investors (or an economically rational centralized economy) actually choose to build enough reactors to decarbonise the world electricity supply?2. Would the need for investors to make a profit increase or decrease the life of the economically accessible Uranium reserves?3. What is the effect of accelerating or delaying the technical availability of fast reactors?4. When if at all would there be shortages of Uranium or Plutonium?5. Under what circumstances would rational investors chose a smooth and physically feasible handover from Uranium burning to fast reactors, thus avoiding the need for a large but temporary return to fossil fuel?The above questions set a mathematically demanding problem: four interacting physical stocks and two physical flow variables ( control variables) must simultaneously be optimized, along with their economic effects. The two control variables are the rate of building or decommissioning Uranium burners, and the rate of building or decommissioning fast reactors. The first control variable drives the cumulative stock of Uranium burning reactors, and hence the resulting maximum physical supply of electricity (with sales income bounded by demand), less the costs of operating, and of new investment. This variable also drives the cumulative depletion of the finite economically extractable reserve of Uranium, and it simultaneously drives an increase in the free Plutonium stock (from Uranium burning). The second control variable, the rate of building or decommissioning fast reactors, drives a decrease in the Plutonium stock (from charging new fast reactors) and it drives a cumulative increase in the stock of fast reactors. This affects the resulting rate of supply of electricity and of income less operating costs and new investment costs. The combined sales of electricity from the two reactor systems is bounded by the total world demand for electricity.The thesis explores this problem in several stages. A fully stochastic form of the problem (stochastic in the price of electricity) is posed using the tools of contingent claims analysis, but this proves intractable to solve, even numerically. Fortunately the price increases needed to impose decarbonisation are very large, and they result from discrete and long lasting government actions. Hence for policy analysis it is adequate to assume a large one off change in electricity price, and observe the progress towards the resulting evolving equilibrium. This problem is also addressed in stages, firstly we optimise the Uranium burning and the fast reactor cycles in isolation from each other, then we allow some purely heuristic and manually controlled interaction between them. Finally we solve, and economically optimize, the total dynamic system of two physical control variables and the resulting four interacting dependent stock variables.

The existing environmental threats and the ever increasing global dependence on electric power highlight the importance of producing power in a sustainable manner. In accordance, it is vital to attract investments in electricity generation projects based on renewable energy sources, also called renewable energy projects (REP). This poses a challenge, as REP tend to be less financially competitive than their fossil fuel based counterparts. Moreover, the power grid has to be upgraded to integrate large amounts of RESs in an efficient and economic manner. An appealing alternative to enhance the financial appealing of REP is to improve the techniques used for their assessment. These tools produce robust and economically sound assessments, but tend to undervalue REP and other projects under uncertainty, as they neglect the flexibility of the projects to be adjusted in response to uncertainty. This can be corrected by extending the tools with the aid of real options (RO) theory. RO theory can be used to extend assessment techniques to value flexibility derived from the projects, their management, and even their environment, which can be used to enhance the financial value of REP in the changing power sector. In addition, the scope of RO theory is increasing to address flexibility in the design of the projects. Therefore, the theory can drive investments in REP and motivate the design of more profitable projects. This research project seeks to analyse the potential of RO theory to increase the financial worth of different types of REP in the current and changing power sector. The novelties of this research are that it expands RO theory by addressing the flexibility within the design of the projects, the potential of RO theory to manage uncertainties that are exclusive to the projects or typical in the power sector, and other relevant areas of research interest. The research produced several RO methodologies to model the planning, operation, and design of hydropower projects, wind power projects, and solar photovoltaic projects in existing power sector environments and environments characterised by high penetration of RESs and consumers with demand response capabilities. The results demonstrate the applicability of RO theory to enhance the financial value of different types of REP under a wide range of circumstances.

This is a doctoral dissertation presented to the FacultyBoard of the Royal Institute of Technology. The dissertationconsists of three self-contained essays on real option pricing.Essay I, written in Swedish, was presented at seminar andaccepted as fulfilling the requirement for a Licentiate Degreein Engineering thesis in 1995. Essay I: This essay studies the option to develop vacantland when the landowner simultaneously determines the optimaldensity and timing of a development. Williams (1991) andCapozza and Li (1994) have recently studied the landdevelopment decision from a realoptions perspective. Bothpapers assume that the production technology is of the commonlyused Cobb-Douglas type, but they use different assumptionsabout uncertainty over future rents and construction costs. Ananalysis of these models and their limitations is carried outand as a result valuation models based on other productiontechnologies than the Cobb-Douglas technology are derived. Essay II: McDonald and Siegel (1996) show that when thebenefit from an investment and the investment cost are assumedto follow correlated geometric Brownian motions, the optimalinvestment policy is given by a simple rule: Invest the firsttime the benefit-cost ratio reaches a certain level. In thisessay, which models the decision to change the use ofaproperty, the investment rule is found to be more complicated.Optimal redevelopment will take place for differentbenefit-cost ratios depending on the relative sizes of thevalue of the property in the different uses and the cost ofchanging the use. Also, for a given current benefit-cost ratiothe value of the option to change use will vary significantlydepending on the relative sizes of the state variables. Essay III: The relationship between the option to choose thecapacity of a real estate development and deliberateoverbuilding is studied in a simple model of investment underuncertainty. The model provides an intuitive measure ofdeliberate overbuilding: the difference between the number ofrental units the owner of an undeveloped site optimally choosesto produce and the number of units expected to be leased at thetime of the building's completion. Numerical simulations withreasonable parameter values show that in some economicenvironments, the optimal production strategy can be to producemore units than are expected to be leased at completion of thedevelopment. / <p>QC 20100611</p>

[pt] A indústria eletrônica cada vez mais adquire importância na economia mundial. O uso de partes e peças eletrônicas deixou de ser exclusivo da informática e passou a permear setores diversos. Cresce a relevância da atração de investimentos em circuitos integrados para a manutenção da diferenciação, dos investimentos em pesquisa e desenvolvimento e até mesmo da competitividade da indústria brasileira. Neste contexto, este trabalho pretende avaliar uma oportunidade de investimento no desenvolvimento de uma planta de circuitos integrados no Brasil utilizando um exemplo numérico. Dadas as diversas incertezas em um projeto deste tipo, foi utilizada a metodologia de opções reais para analisar o investimento em um start-up de circuitos integrados. Ressalta-se que a volatilidade do retorno de uma base de empresas do setor foi considerada como proxy para a volatilidade do ativo-objeto, o fluxo de caixa de uma empresa de circuitos integrados instalada no Brasil. Assim, implementou-se uma metodologia para a obtenção da volatilidade de um projeto de start-up. De posse da volatilidade estimada, o valor das opções reais foram calculados com base no modelo binomial proposto por Cox, Ross & Rubinstein. Os resultados demonstram que a incorporação das incertezas e a análise das opções de espera e de expansão trazem valor significativo ao projeto. / [en] Electronic industry is getting more important in world economy. The use of electronic parts is not an exclusive use of information technology but also of many sectors. It is becoming more important to attract investments in integrated circuits in order to differentiate products, to invest in research and development and even to increase brasilian industry competitiveness. In this context, this study intends to evaluate an investment opportunity of an integrated circuits company with a numeric example. Considering many uncertainties that exist on a project like this, real options theory was used in order to analyse an integrated circuits start-up investment. It is important to mention that the volatility of the return of a group of companies was used as a proxy to obtain the underlying risky asset volatility, as the underlying risky asset is the cash flow of an integrated circuits company built in Brazil. Therefore, this methodology was implemented to find a start-up project volatility. With this estimated volatility, the real options values were calculated based on the binomial model proposed by Cox, Ross & Rubinstein. Results show that incorporating uncertainties and analysing wait and expansion options raise substantial value to the project.

[pt] Contratos de afretamento de FPSO, tipicamente contêm cláusulas de extensão de prazo após um número fixo de anos, sendo que o exercício dessas opções de extensão é prerrogativa da empresa de Exploração e Produção (E e P) que contrata o ativo. Dado que esta flexibilidade gerencial não é capturada pelos métodos tradicionais de avaliação de projetos como o método do Fluxo de Caixa Descontado, um desafio surge: como definir o valor do projeto dado que existem opções de extensão contratual? Neste trabalho foi utilizada a TOR (Teoria de Opções Reais) para analisar o valor das opções sob o ponto de vista do afretador da FPSO, considerando que o exercício destas opções resulta no recebimento, por parte do afretador, de fluxos de caixa adicionais ao final do período fixo de anos estabelecido no contrato. Diferentemente do tratamento padrão de valor de opções encontrado na literatura, neste caso agrega-se valor também ao afretador da FPSO apesar deste estar na posição vendida no contrato. Foram utilizados dois processos estocásticos distintos para a modelagem das incertezas e precificação das opções. O primeiro utilizou como base o MGB (Movimento Geométrico Browniano) e o segundo o MRM (Movimento de Reversão à Média). Os resultados encontrados em ambos os modelos sugerem que a precificação das opções de extensão agrega valor ao contrato e consequentemente pode tornar o afretador da FPSO mais competitivo no processo concorrencial, uma vez que é possível o compartilhamento de parte desse valor adicional com a empresa de E e P através da redução do valor da taxa de afretamento da FPSO. / [en] FPSO contracts tipically include clauses that allow contractual extensions after a fixed period of time. The exercise of these extensions options are the prerogative of the Exploration and Production (E and P) company that hires the FPSO. This management flexibility is not captured by traditional valuation tools such as the Discounted Cash Flow method, and thus, the challenge is how to define the value of a project given that exist contractual extensions options. In this work we analyse the value of these options from the standpoint of an FPSO chartering firm under the Real Options approach, considering that the exercise of these options result in additional cash flows to the chartering company beyond the original contract term. Differently of traditional results in options valuation found in literature, in this case, value is added also to the chartering firm, even though the firm holds a short position in the options. Two different stochastic processes were used to model project uncertainty and option pricing. The first was based on Geometric Brownian Motion (GMB) and the second in Mean Reverting Processes (MRP). The results in both cases suggest that the valuation of contractual extensions options add value to the project, and thus to the chartering firm, and consequently may improve the competitive position of the FPSO chartering firm in a bid process, as it is possible to share part of this value with E and P company through a reduction in the cost of the charter.