[pt] As opções de geração de energia no Brasil de forma sustentável estão fortemente relacionadas às fontes de energia alternativa, em especial a biomassa. Neste estudo é analisada a viabilidade econômico-financeira de um projeto de recolhimento da palha da cana de açúcar em uma usina no Brasil que tem a flexibilidade de expandir a venda de energia, ao investir na utilização da palha como insumo na cogeração. O preço da energia elétrica é modelado como um processo geométrico de reversão à média e é aplicada a teoria de opções reais para determinar o valor das flexibilidades gerenciais. Uma vez que a decisão de recolhimento da palha é tomada, a empresa tem a opção de investir na produção de briquetes, e a partir daí, realizar o switch entre o fluxo de caixa da energia e o fluxo de caixa de briquetes. O modelo é então resolvido utilizando uma árvore binomial recombinante não censurada de reversão à média. Os resultados indicam que a flexibilidade de escolher entre a venda de energia e a venda de briquetes agrega 9,7 milhões de reais, ou 38 por cento ao valor do projeto determinístico de 25,6 milhões de reais, o que é significativo, considerando que a cogeração não é a atividade principal da usina de cana. Assim, o recolhimento da palha da cana pode ainda incentivar projetos de retrofit em usinas que de outra forma poderiam não se mostrar viáveis. / [en] Options for sustainable power generation at competitive prices in Brazil are strongly related to alternative energy sources, in particular, sugar cane biomass. In this study we analyze a cane trash recovery project for a sugarcane mill in Brazil that has the option to expand sales of surplus bioelectricity by introducing the sugarcane trash as feedstock for cogeneration. We model electricity prices as a geometric mean reverting process, and apply the real options approach to determine the value of this managerial flexibility. Once the decision to recover the cane trash has been made, the firm has the option to invest in briquetting production, that will allow it to switch between energy and briquette sales depending on the relative prices of energy and briquettes. The model is then solved using a non censored binomial mean reverting lattice. The results indicate that the flexibility to choose between energy and briquette production adds 9.7 million of reais in value, or 38 per cent to the project value of 25.6 million of reais, which is significant, considering cogeneration is not the core business of the sugarcane mill. This indicates that recovery of cane trash, which is currently wasted in the field, may represent a significant source of value for further development of bioelectricity cogeneration or briquetting production, when retrofitting older sugarcane mills.

[pt] Opções cujo ativo base paga dividendos devem ser apreçadas de maneira particular. Se os dividendos forem calculados como um percentual do valor de mercado do ativo, pequenos ajustes nos modelos como BSM e Método Binomial são suficientes. Entretanto, se o valor do dividendo for fixo, ou seja, independente do valor de mercado do ativo, há necessidade de modelagens mais complexas. A literatura disponível propõe soluções para este caso, porém com foco em ativos financeiros. Ativos reais possuem particularidades que demandam o desenvolvimento de metodologias específicas. O pagamento de dividendos ocorre quando existe um contrato privado de uso entre o detentor do ativo e outro agente. Por estar vinculado a um contrato privado, agentes externos não podem realizar operações de arbitragem. Três diferentes metodologias são descritas e avaliadas neste trabalho. Um exemplo de uma opção de venda embutida em um contrato de afretamento de 10 anos de uma embarcação é utilizado para análise dos resultados. A primeira metodologia se baseia em um dos modelos utilizados para opções financeiras e a segunda busca resolver a principal fraqueza do modelo anterior. No terceiro método é considerada a diferença entre o dividendo do contrato privado e o dividendo de mercado, que representa o valor que poderia ser recebido se firmado um novo contrato. Dentre as metodologias analisadas, a terceira é aquela que apresenta premissas e resultados mais consistentes. / [en] Options that pay dividends must be priced in a particular way. If dividends are calculated as a percentage of the asset s market value, then few adjustments in the BSM model and the Binomial Method are enough. However, if the dividend is fixed, which means that it is independent from the asset s market value, then the models are more complex. The available bibliography proposes solutions for this case, however with emphasis to financial assets. Real assets are different and demand the development of specific methodologies. The dividends payment happens when there is a private contract between the asset s owner and the other agent. Because it is related to a private contract, external agents can t make an arbitrage operation. Three different methodologies are described and evaluated in this work. An example of a put option included in a 10 year charter party of a vessel is used for analyzing the results. The first methodology is based on one of the models applied do financial options and the second aims to solve the first one main weakness. In the third method a difference between the private contract dividend and the market dividend is considered, which represents the value that could be obtained if a new contract is set. Among the methodologies analyzed, the third one presents more consistent premises and results.

New product development is central to many firms' future success. Not only as a means to continue to maintain their piece of the market, but product development can also be a strategic means for a company to diversify, and/or alter focus to adapt to changing market conditions. Most of the research in new product development has been on how to do it cheaper and faster than the next guy. However, early commercialization does not guarantee a position of strength in the market. Failures of EMI in CT scanners and Xerox in personal computers illustrate that being first to market does not ensure success or even survival. There are two main factors that inhibit managers from making educated decisions on when to introduce a new product. First, firms do not exist in a vacuum and any action they take will be countered by their competition. Second, with new products the only certainty is uncertainty. To allow such decisions to become "gut feeling" decisions puts a company's future at unnecessary risk. This is evidenced by the many firms that have had devastating results because of poor decisions with regard to launching a new product. While high level quantitative tools have recently begun to be used to evaluate corporate strategy, these tools are still mainly confined to research groups within large corporations. Both real options (to handle uncertainty) and game theory (to capture the effects of the competitions actions) have been evaluated and used by these groups. However, they have not been adequately integrated together in the academic world, let alone in industry. This thesis help bridge the gap between strategic decision making, and the theoretical world of economic decision analysis creating a prescriptive model companies can use to evaluate strategically important new product launches. To bridge this gap a method that is able to handle the integration of game-theoretic and options-theoretic reasoning to the strategic analysis of new product introduction is developed. Not only was a method developed that could incorporate the two methods it was done in a way that is accessible and useful outside of the academic world.

This study develops a real options model of agbiotechnology and is applied to three genetically modified (GM) traits. Each trait is evaluated as growth options where technical or marketing milestones must be completed before management can exercise the option to invest further in trait development. The real options values are evaluated by employing a binomial tree which is simulated using distributions for random elements within stages of the growth option. Mean option values were negative for the discovery stage for fusarium-resistant wheat and for all but the regulatory submission stage for Roundup Ready wheat. The length of the regulatory submission stage had the greatest negative impact on the value of the option while the ability of the firm to maximize technology-use-fees had the greatest positive impact. Additionally, traits adapted to crops with larger potential market size are more likely to be in the money than traits developed for smaller market segments.

[pt] Os investimentos em infraestrutura, públicos e privados, são notoriamente essenciais à competitividade de uma economia. Hoje, o Brasil sofre com diversas limitações em políticas voltadas ao setor de infraestrutura, que contribuem de forma direta para que os produtos e serviços brasileiros sejam mais caros. Uma destas limitações reside nas condições de financiamento em projetos desta natureza. A possibilidade de se obter parte do financiamento em moeda estrangeira seria uma alternativa agradável aos investidores, no entanto, os traria um risco cambial. Este trabalho analisa uma proposta de mecanismo de cobertura cambial a ser oferecido no âmbito de parcerias público-privadas, que disponibiliza aos investidores uma opção de proteção contra a variação cambial real. Este mecanismo é interpretado como uma garantia com características de uma opção, uma vez que assume valores em função da variação da taxa de câmbio. Neste sentido, este trabalho buscou avaliar e precificar estas garantias cambiais a partir de uma abordagem por opções reais, adotando para isso dois modelos de estimação para a taxa de câmbio, um passeio aleatório com drift neutro e o modelo GARCH-M. Os resultados obtidos em ambos os modelos mostraram-se favoráveis ao governo, no entanto é possível afirmar que a adoção de uma garantia cambial com estas características ofereceria claramente maior risco ao poder concedente do que a iniciativa privada. Assim, uma forma de lidar com esse risco seria estabelecer limites com relação ao valor do financiamento a ser obtido e uma margem de segurança para o poder público em torno do fator de remuneração presente na garantia. / [en] Infrastructure investments, both public and private, are essential to the competitiveness of any economy. Currently, Brazil has several limitations in policies that are applied to the infrastructure sector, which directly contribute to make Brazilian products and services more expensive. One of these limitations arises from the financing requirements of projects of this nature. Obtaining part of the financing requirements in foreign currency would be an alternative for many investors; however, it would bring them the foreign exchange rate risk. This paper analyzes a proposal for a foreign exchange hedging mechanism to be offered in public-private partnerships scope, which provides investors with an option to hedge against the real foreign exchange fluctuation. The mechanism is perceived as a guarantee with has option-like characteristics, as its value varies as a function of the foreign exchange rate. Thus, this work sought to evaluate and price these foreign exchange rate guarantees based on a real options approach. Two exchange rate models were adopted to estimate future levels: a random geometric stochastic drift-free model and the GARCH-M model. The results obtained by both models indicated that use of this guarantee is favorable to the government. However it is possible that the proposal of a foreign exchange guarantee with these features could present a greater risk to the government than to the private partner. Therefore, one way to deal with this risk would be to establish a limit on the total amount obtained through the financing and a safety margin regarding the guarantees remuneration factor.

L’objectif de cette thèse est de développer des modèles quantitatifs utilisant les options réelles pour une évaluation financière des choix stratégiques entrepreneuriaux. Cependant, il ne s’agit pas seulement de développer des aspects techniques (ou manipulations mathématiques). Les modèles proposés dans la thèse visent également à fournir des informations pratiques utiles à la fois aux entrepreneurs et aux investisseurs, afin de faciliter la prise de décision dans les négociations contractuelles pour le financement et l'investissement dans les start-ups et les firmes entrepreneuriales.Cette thèse se compose de deux parties. La première partie définit les concepts utilisés afférents à la question de recherche. L’adoption de la perspective proposée par la finance entrepreneuriale nous permet de centrer notre approche sur la négociation et une relation d'égalité entre les participants dans le processus de prise de décision, alors que la finance d’entreprise traditionnelle s’intéresse à la relation principal-agent. En effet, les méthodes généralement utilisées comme les cash-flows actualisés (DCF) ou le Taux de Rendement Interne (TRI) ne sont pas adéquates pour effectuer une évaluation financière dans un contexte entrepreneurial. Ainsi, la problématique de cette thèse peut être formulée de la manière suivante : Comment les choix stratégiques des start-ups et firmes entrepreneuriales devraient-ils être évalués dans le cadre des négociations contractuelles ?Afin de traiter cette problématique, trois problèmes particuliers seront exposés dans la deuxième partie. Nous proposerons de les étudier à partir de l’approche par les options réelles qui convient parfaitement à l'analyse des choix stratégiques dans un contexte de finance entrepreneuriale.Le premier article analyse l’évaluation d’un contrat de licence dans le secteur biopharmaceutique. En résumé, lors de la conclusion d’un contrat de licence, les dirigeants et les responsables de la négociation doivent prendre en compte de nombreux facteurs tels que la phase de développement, la prévision des coûts d'investissement et la volatilité des marchés. De plus, la prise en compte des interactions comportementales des deux parties lors de la négociation du contrat de licence est essentielle pour la construction d'un modèle de simulation, notamment en ce qui concerne l’interaction dynamique entre le donneur de licence et le preneur de licence.Le deuxième article s’intéresse à la question de la dilution pour les nouveaux actionnaires lors du deuxième tour de financement en présence de détenteurs d’obligations convertibles. Selon les résultats de la simulation, il est possible de vérifier que le taux de « discount » et le « valuation cap » ont un impact important sur le coût de la prise de décision en matière d’investissement en actions. Les résultats montrent également que plus le taux de discount est élevé et moins le valuation cap est important, plus les coûts sont élevés, et la probabilité de succès de la négociation devient donc faible. Par conséquent, l’entrepreneur doit en tenir compte lorsqu’il entre en négociation lors du deuxième tour de financement.Le troisième article aborde le choix d’une stratégie de sortie pour un entrepreneur (acquisition ou introduction en bourse) notamment « The IPO valuation premium puzzle » proposé par Bayar et Chemmanur (2011). Bien qu'il soit normal que l’entrepreneur et les investisseurs en capital-risque envisagent l’introduction en bourse, il est également possible qu'ils choisissent l'acquisition comme stratégie de sortie. En utilisant la théorie des jeux, ce phénomène contradictoire peut être expliqué par l’existence de deux équilibres de Nash. En complément de la gestion des risques afférents au marché, l’entrepreneur doit prêter attention à la relation avec le capital-risqueur lorsqu’il choisit la stratégie de sortie. / The objective of this dissertation is to develop the quantitative models that adopt the real options analysis for financially evaluating the entrepreneurial strategic choices. However, it does not only focus on the technical aspects (or its mathematical methodologies). The models proposed in the dissertation aim to provide the practically useful information in order for both entrepreneurs and investors to make decisions in the contractual negotiation of financing and investing in the start-ups and ventures.This dissertation consists of two parts. The first part gives the definitions of the essential concepts that shall be incorporated into the research question. Adopting the perspectives that are provided in entrepreneurial finance leads us to focus on the fair negotiations among participants in the process of decision-making, while the traditional corporate finance emphasises the principal-agent problem. Actually, the common methods, such as Discounted Cash-Flows and Internal Rate of Return, are not always suitable for implementing financial valuations in the context of entrepreneurial finance. Therefore, the research question of this dissertation can be set as follows: How should strategic choices in contract negotiation be financially evaluated?In order to deal with this problem, three particular issues are introduced in the second part. The real options analysis is utilised in all of the three issues, which is quite suitable for analysing them.The first article deals with the issue of licensing contract with bio-pharma venture. In summary, when closing a licensing contract negotiation, those in charge of the negotiation must consider many factors, such as the phases of R&D, the investment costs and the market volatility. In addition to those, the interaction of the participants of the contractual negotiation should be taken into account. For modelling this relationship, the assumption of dynamic interaction between licensor and licensee is introduced.The second article focuses on the dilution problem in the second financing round under the existence of convertible note holders. According to the simulation results, “discount” and “valuation cap” have a great impact on the equity decision-making cost. The results also show that the costs increase when the degree of discount becomes greater and the valuation cap becomes smaller. This may jeopardize the success of negotiation. Entrepreneurs should take these factors into consideration in the second financing round.The third article analyses the exit choice (acquisition or IPO), especially the “IPO valuation premium puzzle” proposed by Bayar et Chemmanur (2011). While entrepreneurs and venture capitalists prefer an IPO, acquisition can be chosen. Utilising the game theory, this contradictory phenomenon can be explained as the two Nash equilibria. In addition to financial market risks, entrepreneurs should pay attention to the relationship with venture capitalists, when they choose the exit strategy.

Denna studie visar hur valet av metod och värderarens antagande påverkar värderingen av byggrätter. Inledningsvis studeras ett antal faktiska värderingar med avseende på använda metoder och antaganden. Vi finner att fastighetsvärderarna i regel använder ortsprismetoden vid värdering av byggrätter, som komplement används ibland en kalkylbaserad metod. Det visas att fastighetsvärderarens antaganden om framtida bebyggelse i hög grad påverkar värderingen. I mindre utsträckning påverkar valet av värderingsmodell. / In this thesis is presented how the choice of valuation model and the assumptions made by the real estate appraiser affects the valuation of land. By studying a number of valuations we find that the method of choice when valuing land is by a sales comparison method, to complement this method a calculation based model is sometimes used. It is shown that the assumptions made by appraiser to a large degree affect the valuation when using a calculation based model. To a lesser degree the valuation will depend on the choice of valuation model.

In 2014, venture capitalist (VC) investments were as high as $87 billion for startup companies. Furthermore, although more than 50% of venture-backed startups failed, return on investment came from only 10% of the investee companies. The high VC investment dollars and the low number of profitable VC-backed startups suggest challenges that VCs might experience in identifying profitable startups. Using a real options theory conceptual framework, the purpose of this multiple case study was to explore strategies VCs in the southeastern United States use to identify profitable startups. Data collection included observation and archival document reviews and involved semistructured interviews of 11 VC participants in 8 firms who participated in assessing startups that led to an initial public offering or buyout within the past 5 years. Data analysis involved a coding technique for extrapolating themes. Several themes emerged including due diligence and investor involvement, reduction of information asymmetry, human capital management, environment and market forces, startup experience matching investor strategy, trust building, investment timing, and VC market dynamics. Findings from this study might contribute to positive social change by assisting VCs, entrepreneurs, and capital investors in identifying startups that lead to sustainable and profitable businesses. Sustainable and profitable businesses may result in stable jobs in the local community. Beneficiaries of this research include VCs, entrepreneurs, and capital investors.

Changing the business operations and adopting new operational innovations, have become key features for a business solution approach. However, there are challenges for developing innovative operations due to a lack of the proper decision analysis tools, lack of understanding the impacts transition will have on operational models, and the time limits of the innovation life cycle. The cases of business failure in operational innovation (i.e. Eastman Kodak Company and Borders Group Inc.,) support the need for an investment decision framework. This research aims to develop a Real Option Dynamic Decision (RODD) framework for decision making, to support decision makers for operational innovation investments. This development will help the business/organization to recognize the need for change in operations, and quickly respond to market threats and customer needs. The RODD framework is developed by integrating a strategic investment method (Real Options Analysis), management transition evaluation (Matrix of Change), competitiveness evaluation (Lotka-Volterra), and dynamic behavior modeling (System Dynamics Modeling) to analyze the feasibility of the transformation, and to assess return on investment of new operation schemes. Two case studies are used: United Parcel Service of America, Inc., and Firefighting Operations to validate the RODD framework. The results show that the benefits of this decisionmaking framework are (1) to provide increased flexibility, improved predictions, and more information to decision makers; (2) to assess the value alternative option with regards to uncertainty and competitiveness; (3) to reduce complexity; and (4) to gain a new understanding of operational innovations.

This thesis explores the effects of three important factors on a firm's investment and financing decisions, using contingent claim structural model. The first essay investigates how implementation lag impacts investment timing for a levered firm. The main finding is that implementation lag can potentially have a substantial effect on a company’s investment trigger. A crucial determinant of the lag-investment relationship is the fraction of investment cost that has to be incurred upfront. If this fraction is small, investment trigger is a decreasing function of implementation lag and the effect can be economically significant. If this fraction is large, investment trigger can be either increasing or decreasing in lag, but the magnitude of the effect is not large. The second essay investigates how future uncertain growth opportunity impacts a firm's investment timing decision and optimal leverage ratio. The firm has an option to expand profits after the first investment. However, the exercise of the growth option depends not only on the underlying profit flow but also on the uncertain arrival of the growth opportunity. The model illustrates that such uncertainty can significantly impact the initial investment timing for unlevered firm in a non-monotonic way. For levered firm, the future growth uncertainty, along with debt overhang problem, can shape the firm’s financing decision at initial investment. The third essay shows how risk-compensating performance-sensitive debt can be used to mitigate the “overinvestment” agency problem. We show that properly designed performance-sensitive debt can add significant value relative to fixed-coupon debt, and identify the risk-compensation level that maximizes shareholder wealth. The optimal risk-compensation level is found to be smaller than that required to eliminate overinvestment; thus, it is optimal for shareholders to incur some agency cost of overinvestment. / Thesis / Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)