Promue au même titre que la cohésion sociale et économique dans le Traité de Lisbonne, la cohésion territoriale est devenue un enjeu essentiel dans la définition d‟une politique commune d‟aménagement du territoire pour les pays membres de l‟Union européenne. La thèse vise comprendre dans quelle mesure la cohésion territoriale influence les politiques nationales d‟aménagement du territoire dans un pays candidat. Après avoir rappelé la lente construction d‟une politique territoriale commune au sein de l‟UE, les dynamiques territoriales de la Turquie contemporaine ont été confrontées aux exigences de la cohésion territoriale. Les plus grands défis identifiés sont la permanence de grandes inégalités régionales et l‟absence de structures territoriales pouvant favoriser l‟émergence d‟une gouvernance multi-niveaux. Alors que la Turquie est un pays fortement centralisé, l‟innovation majeure dans ce domaine réside dans la création de 26 agences de développement à l‟échelle régionale NUTS 2 qui n‟existait pas auparavant. En s‟appuyant sur trois exemples régionaux (Istanbul, Izmir, Diyarbakır-ġanlıurfa), la thèse analyse le découpage de ces nouvelles régions, le processus de constitution de ces agences, leur fonctionnement, leur intégration dans le contexte institutionnel local et les politiques spatiales qu‟elles entendent mettre en oeuvre. Trois grandes idées peuvent en être retenues. Elles marquent tout d‟abord une nouvelle étape dans les politiques nationales d‟aménagement du territoire, en introduisant des principes nouveaux, en vigueur également dans l‟Union européenne (appel à projets, co-financement, etc.). Elles contribuent ensuite à la transformation de l‟échelle régionale, en dotant des institutions nouvelles de moyens importants, leur permettant de construire petit à petit leur propre territoire d‟intervention. Enfin, l‟objectif de cohésion territoriale est dépassé par l‟articulation entre l‟échelle régionale et l‟échelle métropolitaine, la grande majorité des politiques publiques d‟aménagement visant à renforcer la compétitivité de cette dernière / Territorial cohesion, at the same level than social cohesion and economic cohesion, lies at the core of the European model of society. This thesis intends to understand how far is a national spatial planning policy modified by the europeanisation process. It appears that the main issues at stake in Turkey are the huge regional disparities between the East and the West of the country, but also at a regional scale between metropolitan major cities and declining rural areas, and the lack of regional adminisrative units fostering multi-level governance. The creation of regional development agencies at regional scale in Turkey introduces new actors within the centralised development process of the country. Established at the NUTS 2 level, they are supposed to be the first step on the adaptation of the territorial system to EU standards, and to anticipate the European funds management in case of full membership. The thesis analyses the creation process of these RDAs, their internal organisation, their funding and their spatial policies through strategic planning. They lie at the core of the creation of regional growth coalitions by supporting regional business communities, which are supposed to enhance endogenous capital and promote regional capacities in order to promote economic growth and social well-being. This thesis shows that the creation of a new territorialised actor does not necessary mean apparition of a new territorial administrative level: the new institutions are not a piece of evidence of a devolution process. On the contrary, they appear as new bodies of the centralised spatial planning process. The so called regionalisation process under europeanisation pressure is actually a new way of territorial management, closer to international neoliberal standards than to regional policy implementation demands. Moreover, the territorial cohesion policy is challenged by the mismatch between regional and metropolitan scale, the latter being the main frame of implementation for the national policies of innovation

No / A significant potential beneficial impact of foreign direct investment arises from a foreign affiliate's propensity to purchase inputs from suppliers in the host economy. This issue is of particular interest where the host is a developing country and the linkage is likely to contribute to the development of local suppliers. We compare variations in local input linkages across four countries: Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Viet Nam, all member countries of the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN). Using multiple linear regressions, our findings indicate that the degree of local input linkages is highest when foreign affiliates perform a strategic role in the transnational corporation network and are embedded in the host economy. Non-firm factors are also important determinants, especially the industry of investing firms and the existence of a supply base. Building on the findings, a series of policies to enhance supplier-foreign affiliate linkages are proposed.

Deux volets distincts de l'hydrologie sont abordés, prévision et prédétermination, au travers d'une problématique commune : le transfert à l'exutoire des bassins versants d' une information hydrologique distribuée. Dans le domaine de la prévision des crues, la technologie radar procure une information pluviométrique spatialement continue. Les hydrologues disposent ainsi en temps réel de la connaissance des champs de pluie, atout indéniable pour l'anticipation des crues notamment sur des petits bassins versants par le biais de la modélisation de la pluie en débit. Dans le cadre de la méthode AIGA d'alerte crues, développée au Cemagref, une modélisation mise en oeuvre à l'échelle du pixel de pluie fournit une cartographie des contributions de débit des pixels. Dans le domaine de la prédétermination, le Cemagref a développé la méthode SHYREG qui associe un modèle régionalisé de simulation de pluies horaires à une modélisation de la pluie en débit. Une estimation statistique régionale des pluies et des débits spécifiques de différentes durées, dans une large plage de fréquence (du courant à l'exceptionnel) peut ainsi être proposée et cartographiée. L'objectif du travail présenté est d'étudier et d'élaborer des méthodologies simples de transfert de ces deux informations débitmétriques discrétisées information temps réel pour le volet prévision et information statistique pour le volet prédétermination - à l'information débit à l'exutoire du bassin versant. La méthodologie met en oeuvre des informations spatiales et une modélisation de la pluie en débit. Pour répondre à l'objectif fixé, trois axes de travail sont développés. Le premier est l'étude du comportement d'un modèle pluie-débit simple développé pour être mis en oeuvre à la maille du km². On examine en particulier s'il satisfait les caractéristiques d'invariance et de parcimonie souhaitée pour une utilisation à la fois en reconstitution de crues et en simulation. Le second axe de travail concerne l'agglomération, en prédétermination, de l'information débit statistique connue au km² pour l'estimation des quantiles de débit à l' exutoire de bassins versants de superficie plus importante dans le cadre de la méthode SHYREG. Il s'agit de tenir compte de deux phénomènes hydrologiques distincts : l'abattement spatial de la pluie et le transfert dans le réseau hydraulique. Le troisième axe de travail concerne l'agglomération de l'information hydrologique distribuée pour la reconstitution des crues dans le cadre de l'outil AIGA d'alerte crues. Différentes modélisations sont proposées pour transférer à l'exutoire les contributions des débits modélisées aux pixels. / We address the routing of distributed hydrological information to the outlet of watersheds, in the fields of flood forecasting and flood prediction on ungauged watersheds in the French Mediterranean area.Flood forecasting can benefit of areal rainfall data provided in real-time by radar networks. This data used as an input to rainfall runoff models gives access to flood anticipation on small ungauged watersheds. Within the framework of the AIGA method, developed by CEMAGREF to provide floods alert, a rainfall-runoff model is implemented at the spatial resolution of the radar data, thus providing a map of the 1 km² pixel contributions to the runoff at the catchment outlet.Flood prediction consists of assessing the frequency of occurrence of floods of different given magnitude without reference to the times at which they would occur. The SHYREG flood prediction method, developed by Cemagref associates a regionalized rainfall model with a rainfall-runoff model. It provides grids of statistical estimates of rain and runoff for various duration and return periods. Our purpose is to study and work out simple methodologies to aggregate these two gridded hydrological data - real time information for the AIGA forecasting method and statistical data for the SHYREG prediction method to the catchments outlets. Our methodology implements distributed information and a rainfall-runoff model. We have first studied the behaviour of a simple rainfall-runoff model developed to be implemented in a gridded resolution (1 km² cells) for prediction as well as for forecasting purposes. We have checked that the model parameters show no redundancy and no link with the characteristics of the rainfall events. We have then addressed the question of the aggregation of gridded hydrological data. Within the SHYREG method, it consists of assessing statistical flow estimates at catchments outlets, knowing simulated flow distributions in each cell of the catchments. This aggregation would combine two distinct hydrological phenomena: areal reduction of rainfall and discharge attenuation in the channel network. Within the AIGA method, we have focused on the routing function of the rainfall-runoff model at the 1 km² cell scale, this scale being the first step of the runoff routing from the production area to the outlet of the catchment. We have then produced streamflow hindcasts for selected observed events using different routing function, within our rainfall-runoff model.

La prévision des crues est un exercice hydrologique complexe : les incertitudes y sont nombreuses, aussi bien dans le processus de modélisation hydrologique, dans la détermination de l'état initial du bassin versant avant le lancement de la prévision, que dans l'évolution des conditions météorologiques futures. Dans le cas des bassins versants non jaugés, où les observations de débits sont lacunaires voire absentes, ces incertitudes sont encore plus importantes, et le besoin de les réduire devient incontournable. Cette thèse s'intéresse à des méthodes simples et robustes qui peuvent apporter de l'information pertinente pour quantifier les incertitudes de prévision dans les bassins versants non jaugés. Le but est d'étudier la meilleure stratégie pour chercher l'information dans les bassins jaugés "donneurs", et pour la transférer vers le site non jaugé. Nous étudions les besoins pour mettre en place un modèle de simulation pluie-débit et pour effectuer une mise à jour du modèle de prévision en temps réel. Ces deux composantes de la prévision sont ainsi découplées dans notre approche. Cette thèse s'appuie sur une large base de données constituée d'environ 1000 bassins versants français, dont un jeu clé de 211 bassins versants qui permet la validation des approches développées. Elle s'appuie également sur une archive d'environ 4,5 années de prévisions d'ensemble de pluies, utilisées en forçage à la modélisation hydrologique journalière. La démarche adoptée consiste à intégrer les scenarios de transfert de l'information régionale disponible et les scenarios de la prévision météorologique d'ensemble dans un système de prévision orienté vers les bassins versants non jaugés. L'approche de prévision d'ensemble est ainsi généralisée à ce cas particulier de la prévision hydrologique. A travers plusieurs scénarios de débits futurs, nous cherchons à quantifier les incertitudes de prévisions dans les sites cibles non jaugés. Pour évaluer les différents scénarios des prévisions hydrologiques émis, un cadre de diagnostic d'évaluation des principales qualités d'un système de prévision d'ensemble, comprenant plusieurs critères numériques et graphiques, a été mis en place. Dans cette thèse, une attention particulière est prêtée aux attributs "fiabilité" et "précision" des prévisions. Nous proposons ainsi un nouveau critère graphique, nommé diagramme de précision d'ensemble. Ce critère permet notamment de mettre en valeur la qualité des prévisions qui ne sont pas forcément fiables, mais qui sont précises. Les résultats obtenus ont mis en évidence que la fiabilité des prévisions peut être améliorée sur un bassin versant non jaugé par l'utilisation de plusieurs jeux de paramètres issus des bassins versants voisins. Si la variabilité apportée par le voisinage géographique influe sur la dispersion des membres, et augmente ainsi la fiabilité des prévisions, la prise en compte des caractéristiques physiques, principalement de la surface des bassins versants, est apparue comme une alternative intéressante, influençant positivement aussi l'attribut précision des prévisions sur le site cible. De plus, il a été montré que la précision des prévisions d'ensemble sur le site non jaugé est améliorée par l'intermédiaire du transfert des bassins versants jaugés vers le site cible des corrections faites lors de la mise à jour sur les bassins voisins (mise à jour caractérisée ici par l'assimilation de la dernière observation de débit dans le modèle hydrologique, avant l'instant de prévision). Les différentes mesures de performance ont montré que la meilleure option pour améliorer la précision des prévisions serait de considérer les corrections effectuées sur le bassin le plus proche à chaque pas de temps de prévision. Le krigeage a également donné des résultats satisfaisants, marqués en plus par l'influence positive sur l'attribut fiabilité des prévisions. / Flood forecasting is a complex hydrological task: there are numerous uncertainties in the hydrological modelling process, in the determination of the initial catchment conditions before launching the forecast, and in the evolution of future weather conditions. In ungauged catchments, where streamflow observations are incomplete or absent, these uncertainties are even greater, and the need to reduce them becomes essential.This thesis focuses on simple and robust methods that can provide relevant information to quantify the uncertainty in ungauged catchments. The aim is to study the best strategy to search for information in gauged "donors" basins and to transfer it to the ungauged site. We investigate what information is needed to set up a rainfall-runoff model and to perform forecast updating in real time. These two components of a flood forecasting system are thus decoupled in our approach.This thesis is based on a large database of about 1000 French catchments, which includes a key set of 211 catchments that are used to validate the developed approaches. It also relies on an archive of about 4.5 years of ensemble forecasts of rainfall, which are used for hydrological modelling on a daily time step. The methodology adopted here integrates the scenarios of regional transfer of information and the scenarios of weather forecasting together in a forecasting system for ungauged basins. The approach of ensemble forecasting is thus generalised to this particular case of hydrological forecasting. Using several scenarios of future flows, we seek to quantify the predictive uncertainty in ungauged sites.To evaluate the flow forecast scenarios of the hydrological ensemble prediction system, a diagnostic framework with several numerical and graphical criteria is developed. Special attention is paid to the attributes of "reliability" and "accuracy" of the forecasts. We propose a new graphic criterion, named "diagram of ensemble accuracy". This criterion allows to highlight the quality of forecasts that are not necessarily reliable, but are accurate.The results show that forecast reliability in ungauged sites can be improved by using several sets of parameters from neighbour catchments. If on the one hand the variability brought by the information from the geographical proximity influences the spread of the ensemble forecasts, and thus improves forecast reliability, on the other hand taking into account the physical characteristics of the catchments, especially the surface, emerged as an interesting alternative, as it positively influences also the accuracy of the forecasts at the ungauged site.It is also shown that the accuracy of ensemble forecasts at ungauged sites can be improved with the transfer of updating information from gauged neighbour catchments (forecasting updating is here characterized by the assimilation of the last discharge observation in the hydrological model before the time of forecast). The updating information transferred to the ungauged site is the correction applied to the routing reservoir of the hydrological model. Different measures of forecast performance showed that the best option to improve forecast accuracy is to consider the corrections made at the closest gauged site. Kriging also gave satisfactory results, with additionally a positive impact also on the reliability of the ensemble flow forecasts.

<p>Water is essential for all life on earth. Global population increase and climate change are projected to increase the water stress, which already today is very high in many areas of the world. The differences between the largest and smallest global runoff estimates exceed the highest continental runoff estimates. These differences, which are caused by different modelling and measurement techniques together with large natural variabilities need to be further addressed. This thesis focuses on global water balance models that calculate global runoff, evaporation and water storage from precipitation and other climate data.</p><p>A new global water balance model, WASMOD-M was developed. Already when tuned against the volume error it reasonable produced within-year runoff patterns, but the volume error was not enough to confine the model parameter space. The parameter space and the simulated hydrograph could be better confined with, e.g., the Nash criterion. Calibration against snow-cover data confined the snow parameters better, although some equifinality still persisted. Thus, even the simple WASMOD-M showed signs of being overparameterised. </p><p>A simple regionalisation procedure that only utilised proximity contributed to calculate a global runoff estimate in line with earlier estimations. The need for better specifications of global runoff estimates was highlighted. </p><p>Global modellers depend on global data-sets that can have low quality in many areas. Major sources of uncertainty are precipitation and river regulation. A new routing method that utilises high-resolution flow network information in low-resolution calculations was developed and shown to perform well over all spatial scales, while the standard linear reservoir routing decreased in performance with decreasing resolution. This algorithm, called aggregated time-delay-histogram routing, is intended for inclusion in WASMOD-M.</p>

In the first chapter,a harmonised linked employer-employee dataset is used to study the impact of firm-level agreements on the wage structure in the manufacturing sector in Belgium, Denmark and Spain. To our knowledge, this is one of the first cross-country studies that examines the impact of firm-level bargaining on the wage structure in European countries. We find that firm-level agreements have a positive effect both on wage levels and on wage dispersion in Belgium and Denmark. In Spain, firm also increase wage levels but reduce wage dispersion. Our interpretation is that in Belgium and Denmark, where firm-level bargaining greatly expanded since the 1980s on the initiative of the employers and the governments, firm-level bargaining is mainly used to adapt pay to the specific needs of the firm. In Spain, the structure of collective bargaining has not changed very much since the Franco period where firm agreements were used as a tool for worker mobilisation and for political struggle. Therefore, firm-level bargaining in Spain is still mainly used by trade unions in order to reduce the wage dispersion. In the second chapter, we analyse the impact of the bargaining level and of the degree of centralisation of wage bargaining on rent-sharing in Belgium. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study that considers simultaneously both dimensions of collective bargaining. This is also one of the first papers that looks at the impact of wage bargaining institutions on rent-sharing in European countries. This question is important because if wage bargaining decentralisation increases the link between wages and firm specific profits, it may prevent an efficient allocation of labour across firms, increase wage inequality, lead to smaller employment adjustments, and affect the division of surplus between capital and labour (Bryson et al. 2006). Controlling for the endogeneity of profits, for heterogeneity among workers and firms and for differences in characteristics between bargaining regimes, we find that wages depend substantially more on firm specific profits in decentralised than in centralised industries , irrespective of the presence of a formal firm collective agreement. In addition, the impact of the presence of a formal firm collective agreement on the wage-profit elasticity depends on the degree of centralisation of the industry. In centralised industries, profits influence wages only when a firm collective agreement is present. This result is not surprising since industry agreements do not take into account firm-specific characteristics. Within decentralised industries, firms share their profits with their workers even if they are not covered by a formal firm collective agreement. This is probably because, in those industries, workers only covered by an industry agreement (i.e. not covered by a formal firm agreement) receive wage supplements that are paid unilaterally by their employer. The fact that those workers also benefit from rent-sharing implies that pay-setting does not need to be collective to generate rent-sharing, which is in line with the Anglo-American literature that shows that rent-sharing is not a particularity of the unionised sector. In the first two chapters, we have shown that, in Belgium, firm-level bargaining is used by firms to adapt pay to the specific characteristics of the firm, including firm’s profits. In the third and final chapter, it is shown that firm-level bargaining also allows wages to adapt to the local environment that the company may face. This aspect is of particular importance in the debate about a potential regionalisation of wage bargaining in Belgium. This debate is, however, not specific to Belgium. Indeed, the potential failure of national industry agreements to take into account the productivity levels of the least productive regions has been considered as one of the causes of regional unemployment in European countries (Davies and Hallet, 2001; OECD, 2006). Two kinds of solutions are generally proposed to solve this problem. The first, encouraged by the European Commission and the OECD, consists in decentralising wage bargaining toward the firm level (Davies and Hallet, 2001; OECD, 2006). The second solution, the regionalisation of wage bargaining, is frequently mentioned in Belgium or in Italy where regional unemployment differentials are high. In this chapter we show that, in Belgium, regional wage differentials and regional productivity differentials within joint committees are positively correlated. Moreover, this relation is stronger (i) for joint committees where firm-level bargaining is relatively frequent and (ii) for joint committees already sub-divided along a local line. We conclude that the present Belgian wage bargaining system which combines interprofessional, industry and firm bargaining, already includes the mechanisms that allow regional productivity to be taken into account in wage formation. It is therefore not necessary to further regionalise wage bargaining in Belgium.

Water is essential for all life on earth. Global population increase and climate change are projected to increase the water stress, which already today is very high in many areas of the world. The differences between the largest and smallest global runoff estimates exceed the highest continental runoff estimates. These differences, which are caused by different modelling and measurement techniques together with large natural variabilities need to be further addressed. This thesis focuses on global water balance models that calculate global runoff, evaporation and water storage from precipitation and other climate data. A new global water balance model, WASMOD-M was developed. Already when tuned against the volume error it reasonable produced within-year runoff patterns, but the volume error was not enough to confine the model parameter space. The parameter space and the simulated hydrograph could be better confined with, e.g., the Nash criterion. Calibration against snow-cover data confined the snow parameters better, although some equifinality still persisted. Thus, even the simple WASMOD-M showed signs of being overparameterised. A simple regionalisation procedure that only utilised proximity contributed to calculate a global runoff estimate in line with earlier estimations. The need for better specifications of global runoff estimates was highlighted. Global modellers depend on global data-sets that can have low quality in many areas. Major sources of uncertainty are precipitation and river regulation. A new routing method that utilises high-resolution flow network information in low-resolution calculations was developed and shown to perform well over all spatial scales, while the standard linear reservoir routing decreased in performance with decreasing resolution. This algorithm, called aggregated time-delay-histogram routing, is intended for inclusion in WASMOD-M.

Die Bemessung von Bauwerken an oder in Fließgewässern erfordert die Kenntnis des statistischen Hochwasserregimes. Beispielsweise legen Hochwasserschutzkonzeptionen häufig ein Hochwasser zu Grunde, welches in einem Jahr mit der Wahrscheinlichkeit von 1/100 auftritt. Ein extremeres Hochwasser wird für den Nachweis der Standsicherheit großer Stauanlagen nach DIN 19700-12 mit einem Hochwasser der jährlichen Eintrittswahrscheinlichkeit von 1/10000 benötigt. Ein solches Hochwasser kann bereits wegen des instationären Klimas nicht allein aus Durchflussmessdaten abgeleitet, sondern lediglich idealisiert dargestellt werden. Das resultiert nicht zuletzt daraus, dass der Mensch natürlich Zeuge eines so unwahrscheinlichen Ereignisses werden kann. Jedoch kann er die Unwahrscheinlichkeit nicht nachweisen. Jedes Berechnungsschema, mit welchem ein so unwahrscheinliches Ereignis abgeschätzt werden soll, wird nur begrenzt zuverlässig sein. Das Ziel der Arbeit ist es daher, die Schätzung etwas zuverlässiger zu gestalten. Grundsätzlich gilt, dass ein Modell umso mehr bzw. sicherere Ergebnisse liefern kann, je mehr Daten in das Modell eingehen. Direkt mit dem Durchfluss gekoppelt sind Angaben zu historischen Hochwasserereignissen bzw. qualitative Einschätzungen kleinräumiger Ereignisse. Eine wichtige Datenquelle neben den Durchflussartigen ist der mit dem Durchfluss kausal verbundene Niederschlag und dessen zu vermutendes Maximum in einem Gebiet. Wird zusätzlich regional vorgegangen, können räumliche Aspekte und Strukturen in größeren Einzugsgebieten berücksichtigt werden. Diese stärken bzw. erweitern die lokalen Berechnungsgrundlagen und gewährleisten ein räumlich konsistentes Bild. Im Umkehrschluss kann das Durchflussregime regionalisiert werden, um Informationen an nicht bemessenen Orten bereitstellen zu können. Aus den genannten erweiterten Berechnungsgrundlagen lassen sich drei Anknüpfungspunkte schließen: (i) Es muss eine sehr flexible und dennoch plausible Darstellungsmöglichkeit des statistischen Niederschlagsregimes bis zum vermutlichen Maximum formuliert werden. (ii) Das entwickelte Niederschlagsregime muss mit dem Durchflussregime gekoppelt werden, um die Informationen nutzen zu können. (iii) Die anschließende Regionalisierung muss die verschachtelte baumartige Struktur hydrologischer Einzugsgebiete berücksichtigen. Punkt (i) wird durch eine zweigeteilte Verteilungsfunktion gelöst. Damit werden die ideale Darstellung des wahrscheinlicheren Bereiches und der plausible Verlauf bis zum Maximum miteinander verbunden. Bezüglich Punkt (ii) wird ein neues Kopplungsprinzip entwickelt. Dieses basiert auf der Annahme, dass ein je nach Gebiet gültiger maximaler Scheitelabflussbeiwert existiert, welcher asymptotisch erreicht wird. Im Ergebnis erhält die Durchflussverteilung mit der Abflussbeiwertapproximation einen oberen Grenzwert in Abhängigkeit von Niederschlagsmaximum und Scheitelabflussbeiwert. Entsprechend der Vorgaben in Punkt (iii) wird die Referenzpegelmethode entwickelt. Diese basiert darauf, dass ähnliche Einzugsgebiete äquivalente Hochwasserscheitel generieren. Damit können bekannte Hochwasserereignisse eines Referenzpegels auf unbeobachtete Teileinzugsgebiete übertragen werden. Bei der Wahl des Referenzpegels wird u.a. die Topologie der Einzugsgebiete berücksichtigt. Die gesamte Strategie kann auf große Untersuchungsgebiete angewandt werden. Am Beispiel sächsischer Flüsse wird die Vorgehensweise von der Datenhomogenisierung bis hin zum extremen Hochwasserdurchfluss an einem unbeobachteten Querschnitt erläutert. / The dimensioning of different constructions at and in streams respectively requires knowlegde on the flood situation at site. For instance flood protection concepts often base on a peak discharge of the annual recurrence probability of 1/100. A more severe flood of an annual recurrence probability of 1/10000 is used to confirm the stability of large dams following DIN 19700-12. Such a flood cannot be deduced from runoff data only, but rather shown in an idealised way. It results not least on the fact, that human can witness a very improbable flood event. But is it not possible to verify the improbability. Every modelling scheme that is confronted with the deduction of such an extreme flood event will be of limited reliability. The task\'s aim will therefore be to make the estimation more reliable. Generally the more data a model involves the more trustworthy the results will become. Directly coupled with runoff are historical flood data and qualitative details of small scale flood events respectively. Aside runoff information an important data source is precipitation data, which is coupled with runoff data in a causal way, and the possible maximum precipitation. If additionally whole regions are examined it is possible to consider regional facets and structures of larger catchments. These strengthen and expand local modelling basics and provide a regional consistent result. Vice versa the flood regime can be regionalised to gain information at unobserved cross sections. Out of the described expanded modelling basics follow three links: (i) It is necessary to find a flexible but still plausible formulation of the statistical precipitation regime until the probable maximum precipitation. (ii) The formulation of point i) has to be coupled with the flood regime to include these information. (iii) The adjacent regionalisation has to account for the nested and arboreal structure of hydrological catchments. Point (i) will be solved by a split distribution function. That allows the ideal display of the more probable domain as well as the characteristics until the probable maximum. Regarding point (ii) a new principle of coupling will be developed. It bases on the assumption that a regional maximum runoff coefficient exists and it will be gained asymptotically. As a result of the runoff coefficient approximation the runoff distribution function gets an upper limit depending on maximum precipitation and runoff coefficient. Respecting the guidelines in point (iii) the reference gauge method will be developed. It bases upon the fact, that likewise catchments generate equivalent peak discharges. For this reason it is possible to carry known peak discharges of a reference gauge onto unobserved subcatchments. Among other things the choice of a reference gauge accounts for the topology of the catchments. The whole strategy can be applied to large catchments what is exemplarily shown in Saxon streams. Beginning with a data homogenisation to the point of discharges of extreme low exceedance probabilities at unobserved cross sections the whole procedure is shown.

Oceania is an example of a region where traditional security theory based on historical enmity and competition does not fit. A history of amity and cooperation has evolved through regionalism and the region's pre-eminent organisation, the Pacific Islands Forum (the Forum). In 2004, the Forum was tasked to develop the 'Pacific Plan' (the Plan) to facilitate closer cooperation and deeper integration. Security is one of the four pillars of the Plan. The objective of this thesis is to analyse the institutions of the Forum as facilitators of regional security cooperation. The Forum is reviewed and the idea of a logic of action is introduced. To help explain security in an environment with a history of cooperation, traditional security theory is re-defined. A security environment equation is created as a framework to help analyse the Forum's structures and security mechanisms. The Forum Regional Security Committee is examined closely resulting in suggestions to strengthen the region's security environment.

This thesis discusses internationalisation strategies of companies in a globalising service industry, the telecommunications industry. Differences in the internationalisation processes between manufacturing and service companies, and companies in network industries in particular, are analysed. The telecommunication industry’s special characteristics are discussed. Special challenges faced by companies in small and open economies (SMOPECs) in their internationalisation are also covered. Broad research questions, and a conceptual framework and specific research propositions are presented. The methodology, a multi-case study, and research procedure are introduced, and the research findings are reported, analysed and discussed. During the last decade there has been continuous debate on how well the traditional internationalisation (process) theories are able to explain the internationalisation of service companies. In addition, several researchers have argued that the facts that service sectors are heterogeneous and have different characteristics causes remarkable variations in the internationalisation processes of different service sectors. The conceptual framework developed in this study to analyse the internationalisation strategies of the case companies, national telecommunication companies (telcos) from SMOPECs, is based on the earlier research in the areas of international business and strategic management. The framework consists of two main parts, internationalisation strategies and factors influencing these strategies. The four internationalisation strategies included in the framework are product strategy, operation strategy, market strategy and organisation strategy. The factors influencing internationalisation strategies have been divided into five main groups: global factors, industry specific factors, home country specific factors, company specific factors and host country specific factors. This cross-border multi-case study includes four case companies: Singapore Telecommunications Limited (SingTel) from Singapore, Sonera Oyj (Sonera) from Finland, Telia AB (publ) (Telia) from Sweden, and Telstra Corporation Limited (Telstra) from Australia. The key findings of the study demonstrate that although in some areas the case study companies followed processes suggested by traditional internationalisation (process) theories there were also significant deviations. These deviations are most obvious when analysing market strategies. The findings present several factors behind these deviations. The findings mostly support earlier research on service industries, although there are distinctive characteristics which apply only to the telecommunications industry, or more generally, to network industries. The findings also demonstrate that the special challenges that companies from SMOPECs face in their internationalisation, influence their internationalisation strategies. Interestingly, in addition to these special challenges, the findings suggest that there are areas where these types of companies may have a competitive advantage in relation to their internationalisation. The conceptual framework developed in this study helps to understand the internationalisation process in the telco industry. The framework integrates findings from both international business and strategic management research, recognising the benefits of more generalisable internationalisation models originating from economic and marketing theories, but taking into account environmental circumstances and the influence of managerial actions, emphasised more in strategic management theories. That is, more contingency approach is taken than in some traditional internationalisation models. The conceptual framework and the findings contribute to the existing research on the internationalisation of services particularly, and to international business and strategic management research more generally. / Thesis (Ph.D.) -- University of Adelaide, Business School, 2009