This thesis includes three substantive empirical studies (in Chapters 3, 4 and 5), where each study uses the same econometric methodology, named Regression Discontinuity design, which has an attractive feature - local randomisation. This feature has given the superiority of the method over the other evaluation methods in estimating unbiased treatment effects. Besides, the fuzzy Regression Discontinuity design can control for the endogeneity of the treatment variable, which is another advantage of the method. In each of the studies considered, the endogeneity problem exists. The application of the fuzzy Regression Discontinuity design is itself a contribution in each of the studies. Moreover, each study contributes in its own field. In Chapter 3, we investigate how much the Social Safety Net programs, that provide free food, or cash, or both to the food insecure households in Bangladesh, improve calorie consumption of the beneficiary households. Using Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2005, we find that the effect of the programs is around 843 kilo calorie, which is substantial compared to the previous studies. In Chapter 4, we examine how much was the impact of Education Maintenance Allowance, a program that provided weekly allowance to the young people in Years 12 and 13 in England, on the staying rate in the post compulsory full-time education. The program was abolished in 2010. Using the Longitudinal Survey of Young People in England, we find that the effect of the program was substantial - around 15 percent. The effect of a £1 increase in weekly allowance was around 1 percent. These effects were mainly on the white young people. Using the household survey data - Family Expenditure Survey (1968-2009) - in UK, Chapter 5 establishes that before 1981 consumption substantially fell at the retirement age. This fall is less severe after 1980. However, throughout the data period, consumption fall at the retirement age is fully explained by the expected fall in income, which contradicts the life cycle model, where a consumption growth is independent of an income growth.

This dissertation studies household income and consumption. In the first chapter, I identify the causal effect of retirement on health service utilization in China. In the second chapter, I investigates the impact that retirement has on the family support network of “sandwich” generations in China. In the third chapter, I propose a new estimator for linear quantile regression models with generated regressors, and apply it to study Engel curves for various commodity consumption for families in the UK. In the first chapter, I apply a regression discontinuity design by exploiting the exogenous mandatory retirement age rules in China in order to identify the causal effect of retirement on health service utilization. In China, the social insurance Urban Employee Basic Medical Insurance (UEBMI) provision continues after individuals retire. Employees, however, stop paying the premium and enjoy reduced cost sharing after they retire. Individual medical expenses, insurance costs, and benefits are recorded in the China Household Finance Survey 2013 (CHFS). Significantly, males and females respond differently to this decrease in the relative price of health insurance at the time of retirement. Females are generally more willing to increase their out-of-pocket expenditures in order to take advantage of better health insurance benefits and utilize more medical care. Males, by contrast, do not respond to this change in relative price in the same manner. In the second chapter, I investigates the impact that retirement has on the family support networks of “sandwich” generations in China. These middle-aged households have an inter-generational support network that includes both upward transfers (their parents or parents-in-law), as well as downward transfers (their children). I use micro data from CHARLS (China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study) concerning middle-aged and elderly households in order to evaluate the changes that retirement can have on this family support network, primarily by exploiting the exogenous mandatory retirement age rules in China. I make the identifying assumption that inter-generational transfers would evolve more smoothly if households would not retire and apply a regression discontinuity approach. I find that retirement induces “sandwich” generations to switch roles in the private network as well as in the public transfer channel; indeed, is 55 percentage point more likely that households will switch from resource providers to resource recipients in the channel of private transfers. In addition, these “sandwich” generations are about 47 percentage point more likely to receive money from their non-coresident children when they retire. In the third chapter, we studies estimation and inference for linear quantile regression models with generated regressors. We suggest a practical two-step estimation procedure, where the generated regressors are computed in the first step. The asymptotic properties of the two-step estimator, namely, consistency and asymptotic normality are established. We show that the asymptotic variance-covariance matrix needs to be adjusted to account for the first-step estimation error. We propose a general estimator for the asymptotic variance-covariance, establish its consistency, and develop testing procedures for linear hypotheses in these models. Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate the finite-sample performance of the estimation and inference procedures are provided. Finally, we apply the proposed methods to study Engel curves for various commodities using data from the UK Family Expenditure Survey. We document strong heterogeneity in the estimated Engel curves along the conditional distribution of the budget share of each commodity. The empirical application also emphasizes that correctly estimating confidence intervals for the estimated Engel curves by the proposed estimator is of importance for inference.

Denna uppsats studerar hur de tillfälliga uppehållstillstånden påverkar nyanländas incitament att ta sig in på den svenska arbetsmarknaden. En av motiveringarna bakom den tillfälliga lagen var – förutom att ge svenskt flyktingmottagande ett andrum – att ge nyanlända personer starkare drivkrafter att komma in på arbetsmarknaden. För att undersöka detta görs en brytpunktsanalys (Regression Discontinuity design) där individer som registrerat sin asylansökan hos Migrationsverket före och efter den 24 november 2015 jämförs. Detta datum avgör om barn och barnfamiljer behandlas enligt den gamla eller den tillfälliga lagen, och därmed om de har möjlighet att få permanenta eller tillfälliga uppehållstillstånd. Resultaten visar att individer på olika sidor om datumgränsen inte verkar skilja sig åt i förutbestämda variabler, vilket tyder på att de inte har haft möjlighet att bestämma vilken sida av datumgränsen de hamnat på. Individer som passerat gränsen har signifikant lägre sannolikhet att få permanenta uppehållstillstånd, minskningen är dock marginell. Det beror troligen på att uppföljningsperioden är kort. Som indikation på hur incitamenten att komma in på arbetsmarknaden påverkas av reformen studeras invandrartäthet samt arbetslöshetsnivå i de län som sökande bor i ett år efter ankomsten. Resultaten tyder på att individer som fick sin ansökan registrerad efter brytpunkten inte bor i län där invandrartätheten eller arbetslösheten är annorlunda. Även detta kan bero på att det än så länge gått för kort tid för att kunna se några effekter. / This paper studies how the temporary residence permits affects immigrants’ incentives to enter the Swedish labor market. One of the reasons behind the adoption of the temporary permits was – in addition to provide Swedish refugee reception a relief – to give immigrants stronger incentives to enter the labor market. To study this, a Regression Discontinuity design study is done, where individuals who had their asylum application registered at the Swedish Migration Agency before and after November 24, 2015 are compared. This date will determine if children and families are treated by the old or the temporary law, and thus if they can get permanent or temporary residence permit.   The results show that individuals on different sides of the dateline do not seem to differ in predetermined variables, suggesting that they have not been able to decide which side of the dateline they are on. Individuals who crossed the threshold are significantly less likely to have permanent residence permits, the decrease is however marginal. This is probably because the follow-up period is short. As an indication of how the incentives to enter the labor market are affected by the reform, immigrant density and unemployment rate in the county that the applicant lives in a year after the arrival is used. The results suggest that individuals who registered their applications after the threshold does not live in counties with a different immigrant density or unemployment rate. This as well can be due to that the follow-up period is short.

The regional policy of the European Union is financed through a system of structural and investment funds, which allocates substantial amounts during each programming period to boost the regional growth. Currently, the regional policy uses almost a half of the European Union's budget. According to such an extensive investment plan it is believed that the structural funding has a positive impact on the regional performance. This thesis provides an analysis of the Objective 1 (Convergence strategy) treatment effect on the regional GDP and employment growth during two last programming periods 2000-2006 and 2007-2013 using mostly nonparametric estimation method of the regression dis- continuity design. The thesis contributes to existing literature since the current research studies do not provide conclusive results. Based on the estimation re- sults we did not find statistically significant effect of the Objective 1 treatment on the GDP per capita growth nor employment growth. These findings are robust to various model specifications and estimation methods. JEL Classification R11, R58, C21, C31 Keywords the European Union, regional policy, the Objec- tive 1, regression discontinuity design Title The effect of EU Structural Funds on regional performance Author's e-mail zdarskabarbora@seznam.cz...

Do people acquire more information when they are obligated to participate in elections? This dissertation presents empirical evidence on the effects of compulsory voting laws on the consumption of TV news. In Brazil, the law determines that every literate citizen over the age of eighteen and under seventy at the day of the election is subject to a number of penalties if they don\'t attend the ballots. This provides a natural experiment which allows us to identify the causal effect of being under a compulsory voting regime on information acquisition. Using national survey data on the consumption of media we find that, for those who have been exposed to the law for the first time, compulsory voting has a significant and substantial positive impact on the probability of an individual to watch Brazil\'s main newscast, Rede Globo\'s Jornal Nacional. No impact is found, though, for citizens who transition from the voluntary to the compulsory voting regime when they reach the age of seventy. / Pessoas que são obrigadas a votar procuram fazer isso de maneira informada? Essa dissertação procura saber se a lei de voto obrigatório brasileira induz eleitores a consumirem mais informação via noticiários televisivos. Mais especificamente, procuramos saber se o consumo de informações via o noticiário Jornal Nacional, transmitido pela Rede Globo, aumenta em decorrência da exposição à lei. No Brasil, todo cidadão alfabetizado com idade maior que dezoito e menor que setenta anos está sujeito a uma série de punições caso se abstenha sem justificativa nas eleições. Isso gera um experimento natural que nos permite utilizar a técnica de regressão descontínua para recuperar o efeito causal dessa lei sobre o consumo de informação por parte dos eleitores. Encontramos um aumento de 10,4% na probabilidade do eleitor jovem assistir o programa Jornal Nacional que pode ser atribuído especificamente ao fato desse cidadão ser obrigado a votar. Nenhum efeito é encontrado para cidadãos que deixam de ser obrigados aos setenta anos de idade

This paper studies the evasion of TV license fees in Austria. We exploit border differentials to identify the effect of fees on evasion. Comparing municipalities at the low- and high-fee side of state borders reveals that higher fees trigger significantly more evasion. Our preferred estimator indicates that a one percent increase in fees raises the evasion rate by 0.3 percentage points. The positive effect of fees on evasion is confirmed in different parametric and non-parametric approaches and survives several robustness checks.

Do people acquire more information when they are obligated to participate in elections? This dissertation presents empirical evidence on the effects of compulsory voting laws on the consumption of TV news. In Brazil, the law determines that every literate citizen over the age of eighteen and under seventy at the day of the election is subject to a number of penalties if they don\'t attend the ballots. This provides a natural experiment which allows us to identify the causal effect of being under a compulsory voting regime on information acquisition. Using national survey data on the consumption of media we find that, for those who have been exposed to the law for the first time, compulsory voting has a significant and substantial positive impact on the probability of an individual to watch Brazil\'s main newscast, Rede Globo\'s Jornal Nacional. No impact is found, though, for citizens who transition from the voluntary to the compulsory voting regime when they reach the age of seventy. / Pessoas que são obrigadas a votar procuram fazer isso de maneira informada? Essa dissertação procura saber se a lei de voto obrigatório brasileira induz eleitores a consumirem mais informação via noticiários televisivos. Mais especificamente, procuramos saber se o consumo de informações via o noticiário Jornal Nacional, transmitido pela Rede Globo, aumenta em decorrência da exposição à lei. No Brasil, todo cidadão alfabetizado com idade maior que dezoito e menor que setenta anos está sujeito a uma série de punições caso se abstenha sem justificativa nas eleições. Isso gera um experimento natural que nos permite utilizar a técnica de regressão descontínua para recuperar o efeito causal dessa lei sobre o consumo de informação por parte dos eleitores. Encontramos um aumento de 10,4% na probabilidade do eleitor jovem assistir o programa Jornal Nacional que pode ser atribuído especificamente ao fato desse cidadão ser obrigado a votar. Nenhum efeito é encontrado para cidadãos que deixam de ser obrigados aos setenta anos de idade

This thesis is based on three essays. The first chapter analyses the impact of 27 years of civil war in Angola on human capital, expenditures per adult equivalent and fertility. The prediction of the effects of civil war is done through a neoclassical unitary household model in the tradition of Rosenzweig. Using instrumental variable method, this thesis shows that civil war has a negative and disastrous impact in short-term on health of children, this effect is persistent. Civil war has no impact on expenditures per adult equivalent. It increases enrollment and decreases fertility in the short term. The second chapter ofthis thesis analyzes the effectiveness of a social program in a conflict country such as Angola and explores whether this effectiveness depends on the intensity of the conflict. Our identification strategy is based on the political geography of the deployment of the program based on a model of spatial competition of Hotelling. This thesis shows that the Angola Social Fund had a positive impact on expenditures per adult equivalent and on one of the main anthropometric measurements namely the height for age z-score. The program's effectiveness in function to the intensity of the conflict is analyzed using the local instrumental variable estimator. The thesis shows that the program's effectiveness increases with the intensity of the conflict. The last chapter of this thesis analyzes in the case of Cameroon, the impact of teacher training on HIV/AIDS. The two criteria for selecting participating schools, leads us to choose as identification strategy the regression discontinuity design. This thesis shows that 15 to 17 year old girls in teacher training schools are between 7 and 10 percentage points less likely to have started childbearing. For 12 to 13 year old girls, the likelihood of self-reported abstinence and condom use is also significantly higher in treated schools.

This paper examines the causal effect of niche parties’ council representation on policy outcomes in Spain between 2003 and 2022. Focusing on the far-left IU and far-right VOX as niche parties, it utilizes local-level data on municipal elections. To account for possible endogeneity, I apply a regression discontinuity design using the 5% electoral admission threshold, generating quasi-experimental variation in the probability that a niche party is represented in the council. I show that if IU obtains council representation, municipal budgets shift from a surplus to a deficit. Moreover, I find large effects on revenue and spending if PSOE is forming the coalition, even if it is not the strongest party in the election. These findings suggest that IU plays a crucial role as a coalition partner, exerting a considerable influence on local policies. Conversely, there seem to be no effects of IU’s representation for single-party majority governments. This indicates that in contrast to research looking at parties’ policy positions, bargaining about resources rather than electoral competition for voters drives the results. Additionally, I provide evidence for spillover effects to the regional level, resulting in a higher level of party favoritism between regional and local governments due to IU’s council representation. Regarding VOX’s entry into the council, I find a substantial reduction in fee revenues.

Submitted by Renata Lopes (renatasil82@gmail.com) on 2018-07-23T12:16:47Z No. of bitstreams: 1 leonardonevesluz.pdf: 2626049 bytes, checksum: 7b3d89d05297f5d4bd59df813779e123 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Adriana Oliveira (adriana.oliveira@ufjf.edu.br) on 2018-09-03T16:19:00Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 leonardonevesluz.pdf: 2626049 bytes, checksum: 7b3d89d05297f5d4bd59df813779e123 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-09-03T16:19:00Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 leonardonevesluz.pdf: 2626049 bytes, checksum: 7b3d89d05297f5d4bd59df813779e123 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-06-18 / Esta tese tem por objetivo investigar os efeitos da exposição a incentivos à reeleição por parte de prefeitos incumbentes sobre a provisão pública de vagas em creches. Com base na teoria da agência política, espera-se que prefeitos aptos a concorrer à reeleição tenham incentivos a sinalizar ao eleitorado que são candidatos preocupados em satisfazer suas preferências. Assumindo que a oferta pública de bens privados é componente das preferências do eleitorado, em especial a oferta pública de creches, foi realizado um quase-experimento para testar se há comportamento oportunista na provisão de vagas públicas em creches pelos prefeitos com incentivos à reeleição. Por meio de informações contidas no Repositório de Dados Eleitorais do Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, para as eleições municipais de 2004 e 2008, foram selecionados municípios cujos prefeitos poderiam concorrer às eleições de 2008, compondo o grupo de tratamento, com municípios em que os prefeitos encontravam-se em segundo mandato, formando o grupo de controle. O exercício empírico foi baseado em uma abordagem de desenho de regressões descontínuas (RDD) para verificar se há uma diferença média entre a taxa de crescimento da provisão de vagas em creches, municipais ou privadas conveniadas às prefeituras municipais. Os resultados indicaram que não há evidências robustas da presença de oportunismo eleitoral na provisão de vagas em creches, considerando as vagas ofertadas em creches públicas e privadas sob regime de parceria com o poder público local. Foi realizado, ainda, um exercício empírico para verificar se há incentivos à provisão pública de creches sob alinhamento partidário entre prefeito incumbente e os partidos da base aliada do Governo Federal no Congresso Nacional e na composição do ministério do Presidente. Novamente, não foram encontradas evidências robustas que indiquem efeitos de alinhamento partidário na provisão pública de creches. / The purpose of this thesis is to investigate the effects of exposure to incentives for re-election by incumbent mayors on the public provision of enrollments in day care centers. Based on political agency theory, mayors apt to run for re-election are expected to have incentives to signalize to the electorate that they are candidates concerned about satisfying their preferences. Assuming that the public offering of private goods is a component of the electorate's preferences, especially the public offer of day-care centers, a quasi-experiment was conducted to test for opportunistic behavior in the provision of public enrollments in day care centers by mayors with re-election incentives. Using information contained in the Repositório de Dados Eleitorais of the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, municipalities whose mayors could run for the 2008 elections were selected as treatment group and the municipalities in which mayors were in second term were selected as control group. The empirical exercise was based on a discontinuous regression design approach (RDD) to verify if there is a mean difference between the growth rate of the provision of enrollments in public or private (subsidized by the municipalities) day care centers. The results indicated that there is no robust evidence of the presence of electoral opportunism in the provision of enrollments in day care centers, considering the vacancies offered in public and private (under a partnership with the local public power) day care centers. In addition, an empirical exercise was carried out to verify if there is an incentive to the public provision of day care centers under partisan alignment between incumbent mayor and the parties of the allied basis of the Federal Government in the National Congress and in the composition of the President's Cabinet. Again, no robust evidence was found to indicate effects of partisan alignment in the public provision of day care centers.