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Nowadays, safety and environmental awareness about the increased industrial accidents have become a critical issue that concerns both, individuals and governmental policies. This leads to higher demands on the manufacturing industry to be safer and more environmentally friendly. Recently, there has been a number of industrial accidents and serious fires in the world that have increased because of using plastic composite IBC containers in industrial manufacturing. And this becomes a common important issue for all manufacturers that strive to improve their environmental performance. The main purpose of this thesis is to investigate different available options of oil fluid storage and transportation in the industry, and to identify the most crucial factors related to each storage and transportation mode. Those factors are investigated and highlighted regarding to their effect on quality, environment and work environment. The thesis also aims to investigate and analyse the hazards associated with oil storage in the plant and in the warehouse and to use risk management strategies in order to identify and mitigate risks in the early stages. The work is carried out at GKN Driveline Köping AB that required a study of the methods used in industry for oil storage and transportation. Therefore the work focuses on identifying suppliers’ different transportation processes including different packaging options. This report includes an explanation of the methodology that is used to perform the task that the company has entrusted, and also contains a review of the comprehensive literature study. The method used to investigate hazards associated with oil transportation and storage is risk management that includes risk assessment tools, FMEA analysis and Ishikawa diagram. FMEA is performed to analyse both, the company’s current process and the process of filling oil by tank trucks regarding quality, environment and work environment. Benchmarking is another analysing tool used to analyse Volvo Power train and GKN Driveline different performances. The empirical findings are analysed by utilizing the JIT philosophy to identify the non value added activities and then determine the inconsistency with JIT philosophy. Kaizen and possible improvements are identified as well, with the help of the visual map VSM. The results that have been achieved are presented and modified according to what suppliers can provide, what the law demands, what the insurance requires and even what fits with the plant structure. The conclusion includes a description of the relation between internal and external logistics and how the synergy between them affects the choice for different transportation processes. It also includes a suggestion for possible improvement regarding logistical costs and transportation costs.

La thèse se propose d'intégrer deux approches économiques fondamentales à l'étude de l'économie régionale et de la politique économique des transports en particulier: i) un approche théorique, fondée sur des micromodèles analytiques et soutenue par des applications des méthodes de simulation numérique, et ensuite, ii) un approche empirique pour tester des hypothèses théorétiques. La perspective de microéconomie sur les problématiques et le fonctionnement des mécanismes des transports privés sont, au même temps, nécessaires et ardues à modéliser. Parmi les nombreuses problématiques étudiés dans le cadre de cet domaine de recherche il vaut la peine de mentionner: la taxation des routes, la concurrence parfaite et oligopolistique entre les opérateurs que anime le système des transports privées et de marchandises, la congestion des routes et le comportement des usagers face à l'incertitude relative aux temps de trajet où encore, le processus de décision en matière de transports au sein des ménages. L'approche micro-fondée liée aux problématiques ci-dessus a été intégrée au sein de cet étude avec une vision empirique, menée à l'analyse de l'ensemble des politiques de plani cation au niveau régional et urbain. Les deux applications empiriques présentées montrent deux nouvelles méthodologies d'étude concernant deux problématiques classiques: i) le choix modale, dans une optique de décision conjointe observée sur un échantillon des couples résidents en Ile-de-France et, ii) le choix de route en Moyen Orient, où les temps de trajet sont incertains et dépends d'un scenario politique incertain au niveau macroéconomique. L'intégration des deux approches est réalisée dans le cadre de cette thèse ayant comme exigence celle de mieux répondre aux questions concrètes et actuelles de la recherche européenne, ainsi que pour augmenter la palette des débouchées applicatives des modèles théoriques développées dans la littérature récente. / This thesis aims to integrate two fundamental approaches to the study of regional economics and the transport policy: i) a theoretical approach based on analytic models supported by numerical simulation and ii) an empirical approach to test theoretical assumptions. The microeconomic perspective represents a challenging and a complex task at the same time. Some of the open issues at the center of debate are: the taxation of roads, perfect and imperfect competition among the networks supporting private trips, congestion pricing and the attitude towards risky outcomes as uncertain travel times, the decision making process and resource sharing among different members of a household. The micro approach has been integrated with two empirical experiments in which we propose new approaches to study two traditional problems: i) modal choice, by testing the jointness of decision making on a sample of active couples from Ile-de-France, and ii) route choice in the Middle East - a context in which the travel time, as an input of the decision process, is characterized by uncertainty and depends on the political scenario at the macro level.

Student number : 0314533R MSc Project Report School of Mining Engineering Faculty of Engineering and the Built Environment / Globalization has created investment opportunities for enterprises around the world. Attracting foreign investment into developing regions has been a key challenge in the strategies for economic growth and poverty reduction of developing countries. Overall, the results of foreign investment have been disappointing in some countries. Recent studies confirm that factors such as corruption, political instability, armed conflict, and other non-commercial risks have negatively impacted foreign direct investment inflows. However, there is renewed hope among government personnel that private investment can play an increasingly significant role in helping economic` growth. As host governments, international corporations, investment banks and multilateral insurance agencies learn from the mistakes of the past and commit themselves to improve the environment for business for mining industry, the prospect for the future brightens. Moreover, foreign investors are recognizing that if the host government can create a competitive environment, investments in developing countries have the potential to be highly profitable. It is hoped that this research effort will contribute in some way to better understand the inability of some countries to attract FDI. The current situation in developing countries is of particular relevance to the theme of this research project. The study compares non-commercial risk ratings for foreign direct investment inflows compiled for ten selected countries. The matrix provides a comparative assessment of noncommercial risk ratings, and highlights the importance of country risk and event risk as components of a composite risk rating.

Gradualmente a sociedade mundial tem se tornado mais dependente de sistemas automatizados, bem como, as diversas plantas de saneamento estão se modernizando e integrando as infraestruturas existentes de redes coorporativas. Portanto, conforme o cenário de desenvolvimento tecnológico em que se encontra a área de segurança da informação (security) e da segurança do processo (safety) propôs-se nesta pesquisa uma metodologia em gestão de riscos com análise quantitativa, por meio da utilização do método Consultative Objective Risk Analysis System (CORAS) e função Reliability, utilizando a modelagem matemática de Markov, para a realização da gestão de risco em plantas de saneamento. Os resultados obtidos pela metodologia de gestão de risco foram validados por meio da aplicação em estudo de caso na planta de saneamento, especificamente uma elevatória de esgoto com a vazão de 2,3 m³/s localizada no município de Salvador na Bahia. Ao implantar a metodologia verificou-se que elevatória possui a confiabilidade de 98,78%, além de identificar e classificar os riscos existentes ao processo, contemplando a avaliação com uma visão sistêmica envolvendo a segurança do processo e da informação. / Gradually the world society has become more dependent on automated systems, as well as the various plants sanitation are modernizing and integrating existing infrastructure of corporate networks. Therefore, depending on the scenario in which technological development is the area of information security and process safety proposed in this research methodology for risk management with quantitative analysis, by using the method Consultative Objective Risk Analysis System (CORAS) Reliability and function, using mathematical modeling Markov for the realization of risk management in plant sanitation. The results obtained by the methodology of risk management were validated by applying on a case study on a wastewater treatment plant, particularly a pumping sewage with flow rate of 2.3 m³ / s located in the city of Salvador in Bahia. When deploying the methodology it was found that the lift has a 98.78% reliability, and identify and classify the existing process risks, contemplating the review with a systemic vision involving process safety and information.

A citricultura brasileira é vista como atividade razoavelmente rentável no longo prazo, mas caracterizada por preocupante nível de risco. Este trabalho buscou avaliar a rentabilidade e o risco da atividade, sugerindo como forma de melhor gerenciá-los a provisão de recursos. A análise que confronta risco e retorno da atividade utiliza o método do Valor Presente Líquido - VPL. A identificação dos principais fatores (fontes de risco) responsáveis pela variabilidade do fluxo de caixa foi feita através da análise das contas do fluxo de caixa da atividade e pela estimação do modelo de auto- regressão vetorial de previsão para definir as distribuições conjuntas desses preços. As distribuições de probabilidade para a produtividade nos 19 anos de vida útil do pomar foram definidas através do teste de ajustamento de Kolmogorov-Smirnov. Utilizando o modelo do VPL foram simulados 10.000 possíveis valores para os fatores de risco que substituídos nas contas do fluxo de caixa geraram 10.000 possíveis valores de rentabilidade para a atividade. A análise do investimento no pomar de laranja mostrou que os principais fatores de risco para a citricultura são os preços recebidos pela fruta, os preços pagos pelos insumos e a produtividade das plantas. O investimento se apresentou viável economicamente para uma taxa real de desconto de 4% ao ano, com 0,01% de chances de se obter VPL<0; já, para uma taxa de desconto de 6% ao ano há 16% de chances de se obter VPL<0; e, para uma taxa de desconto de 8% ao ano, o investimento passa a ser inviável economicamente apresentando apenas 3% de chances de se obter VPL>0. Embora a rentabilidade média esperada tenha se apresentado remuneradora (6,6% ao ano), o produtor poderá necessitar de recursos para suportar os anos que apresentarem fluxo de caixa negativo. Para gerenciar os riscos do projeto, foram sugeridos dois procedimentos para o cálculo da provisão, um baseado no risco de VPL<0 e outro na distribuição das receitas líquidas acumuladas capitalizadas negativas. O valor a ser provisionado para que o produtor fique protegido contra 95% dos possíveis déficits de caixa representa 17% do montante a ser aplicado nos 3 primeiros anos do projeto. Porém, o montante a provisionar depende dos recursos que o investidor disponha-se a aplicar a mais no projeto ou qual o limite de crédito com que ele pode contar para cobrir suas deficiências de caixa. / The brazilian citrus industry has seen as a reasonably profitable business in the long term, but characterized by worrying level of risk. This study below aimed to evaluate the profitability and risk of this business, suggesting that the best to manage them is the provision of resources. Net Present Value - NPV was the method used to confront risk and return of citrus industry. Identification of the main factors (sources of risk) that may cause the variability of cash flows was made by examining accounts of cash flow activity and estimating vector autoregression forecast prediction to define joint distributions. Productivity distributions in 19-year life of orchad were adjusted by Kolmogorov-Smirvov test. Using NPV model were simulated 10,000 possible values for risk factors which replaced in accounts of the cash flow generates 10,000 possible values to business return. Orange orchard investment analysis showed that the major risk factors for citrus are: prices received by fruit, prices paid for inputs and productivity of plants. The investment has been shown economically feasible based on a discount rate of 4% per year, with chance of 0.01% to get NPV <0, 16% chance of getting NPV <0 using a discount rate of 6% per year and using a discount rate of 8% per year the investment becomes economically unfeasible, it means only 3% chance of getting NPV> 0. Although the expected average return has been shown profitable (6.6% per year), producers may need resources to support negative cash flow years. In order to manage project risks, we suggest two procedures to calculate the provision: a risk-based on NPV <0 and distribution of accumulated capitalized and negative net income values. Provision value to protect the producer against 95% of possible annual deficits represents 17% of first 3 years investment value. However, the total amount to be provisioned will depend on investors further resources available to apply in the project or based on credit limit available to cover cash deficits.

Gradualmente a sociedade mundial tem se tornado mais dependente de sistemas automatizados, bem como, as diversas plantas de saneamento estão se modernizando e integrando as infraestruturas existentes de redes coorporativas. Portanto, conforme o cenário de desenvolvimento tecnológico em que se encontra a área de segurança da informação (security) e da segurança do processo (safety) propôs-se nesta pesquisa uma metodologia em gestão de riscos com análise quantitativa, por meio da utilização do método Consultative Objective Risk Analysis System (CORAS) e função Reliability, utilizando a modelagem matemática de Markov, para a realização da gestão de risco em plantas de saneamento. Os resultados obtidos pela metodologia de gestão de risco foram validados por meio da aplicação em estudo de caso na planta de saneamento, especificamente uma elevatória de esgoto com a vazão de 2,3 m³/s localizada no município de Salvador na Bahia. Ao implantar a metodologia verificou-se que elevatória possui a confiabilidade de 98,78%, além de identificar e classificar os riscos existentes ao processo, contemplando a avaliação com uma visão sistêmica envolvendo a segurança do processo e da informação. / Gradually the world society has become more dependent on automated systems, as well as the various plants sanitation are modernizing and integrating existing infrastructure of corporate networks. Therefore, depending on the scenario in which technological development is the area of information security and process safety proposed in this research methodology for risk management with quantitative analysis, by using the method Consultative Objective Risk Analysis System (CORAS) Reliability and function, using mathematical modeling Markov for the realization of risk management in plant sanitation. The results obtained by the methodology of risk management were validated by applying on a case study on a wastewater treatment plant, particularly a pumping sewage with flow rate of 2.3 m³ / s located in the city of Salvador in Bahia. When deploying the methodology it was found that the lift has a 98.78% reliability, and identify and classify the existing process risks, contemplating the review with a systemic vision involving process safety and information.

A citricultura brasileira é vista como atividade razoavelmente rentável no longo prazo, mas caracterizada por preocupante nível de risco. Este trabalho buscou avaliar a rentabilidade e o risco da atividade, sugerindo como forma de melhor gerenciá-los a provisão de recursos. A análise que confronta risco e retorno da atividade utiliza o método do Valor Presente Líquido - VPL. A identificação dos principais fatores (fontes de risco) responsáveis pela variabilidade do fluxo de caixa foi feita através da análise das contas do fluxo de caixa da atividade e pela estimação do modelo de auto- regressão vetorial de previsão para definir as distribuições conjuntas desses preços. As distribuições de probabilidade para a produtividade nos 19 anos de vida útil do pomar foram definidas através do teste de ajustamento de Kolmogorov-Smirnov. Utilizando o modelo do VPL foram simulados 10.000 possíveis valores para os fatores de risco que substituídos nas contas do fluxo de caixa geraram 10.000 possíveis valores de rentabilidade para a atividade. A análise do investimento no pomar de laranja mostrou que os principais fatores de risco para a citricultura são os preços recebidos pela fruta, os preços pagos pelos insumos e a produtividade das plantas. O investimento se apresentou viável economicamente para uma taxa real de desconto de 4% ao ano, com 0,01% de chances de se obter VPL<0; já, para uma taxa de desconto de 6% ao ano há 16% de chances de se obter VPL<0; e, para uma taxa de desconto de 8% ao ano, o investimento passa a ser inviável economicamente apresentando apenas 3% de chances de se obter VPL>0. Embora a rentabilidade média esperada tenha se apresentado remuneradora (6,6% ao ano), o produtor poderá necessitar de recursos para suportar os anos que apresentarem fluxo de caixa negativo. Para gerenciar os riscos do projeto, foram sugeridos dois procedimentos para o cálculo da provisão, um baseado no risco de VPL<0 e outro na distribuição das receitas líquidas acumuladas capitalizadas negativas. O valor a ser provisionado para que o produtor fique protegido contra 95% dos possíveis déficits de caixa representa 17% do montante a ser aplicado nos 3 primeiros anos do projeto. Porém, o montante a provisionar depende dos recursos que o investidor disponha-se a aplicar a mais no projeto ou qual o limite de crédito com que ele pode contar para cobrir suas deficiências de caixa. / The brazilian citrus industry has seen as a reasonably profitable business in the long term, but characterized by worrying level of risk. This study below aimed to evaluate the profitability and risk of this business, suggesting that the best to manage them is the provision of resources. Net Present Value - NPV was the method used to confront risk and return of citrus industry. Identification of the main factors (sources of risk) that may cause the variability of cash flows was made by examining accounts of cash flow activity and estimating vector autoregression forecast prediction to define joint distributions. Productivity distributions in 19-year life of orchad were adjusted by Kolmogorov-Smirvov test. Using NPV model were simulated 10,000 possible values for risk factors which replaced in accounts of the cash flow generates 10,000 possible values to business return. Orange orchard investment analysis showed that the major risk factors for citrus are: prices received by fruit, prices paid for inputs and productivity of plants. The investment has been shown economically feasible based on a discount rate of 4% per year, with chance of 0.01% to get NPV <0, 16% chance of getting NPV <0 using a discount rate of 6% per year and using a discount rate of 8% per year the investment becomes economically unfeasible, it means only 3% chance of getting NPV> 0. Although the expected average return has been shown profitable (6.6% per year), producers may need resources to support negative cash flow years. In order to manage project risks, we suggest two procedures to calculate the provision: a risk-based on NPV <0 and distribution of accumulated capitalized and negative net income values. Provision value to protect the producer against 95% of possible annual deficits represents 17% of first 3 years investment value. However, the total amount to be provisioned will depend on investors further resources available to apply in the project or based on credit limit available to cover cash deficits.

<p>In recent years, so many networks are being built and some of the organizations are able to provide security to their networks. The performance of a network depends on the amount of security implemented on the network without compromising the network capabilities. For building a secure network, administrators should know all the possible attacks and their mitigation techniques and should perform risk analysis to find the risks involved in designing the network. And they must also know how to design security policies for implement the network and to educate the employees, to protect the organization’s information. The goal behind this case-study is to build a campus network which can sustain from reconnaissance attacks.</p><p>This thesis describes all the network attacks and explores their mitigation techniques. This will help an administrator to be prepared for the coming attacks. This thesis explains how to perform risk analysis and the two different ways to perform risk analysis. It also describes the importance of security policies and how security policies are designed in real world.</p>

<p>This paper makes an analysis of risk and risk management of Swedish cod fishery in the Baltic Sea. The purpose is to describe differences in risk perception between fishery stakeholders and the consequences these imply for political decisions. A literature study was undertaken at the startup-phase to give the study a valid background and interviews with four actors in the fishing industry was conducted. The chosen actors are: The Federation of Swedish Fishermen (SFR), Swedish Board of Fisheries, WWF and one researcher. The results indicate two causes for the cods’ positive trend, good natural conditions and a better fishing administrationin the Baltic Sea area. Risk perception is on the surface practically the same allover but a deeper analysis identifies differences. The four actors all point at different parts ofthe improved fishing-administration as most important. Improved fishing-administration during the 21th century is a fact but not good enough. As long as fishing quotas are not raised considerably during the next few years the Baltic Sea cod should be on the rise and reach biologically safe population. The most important cause for the improved fishing administration is that more actors can take part in the political decisions and that ICES’ biological recommendations are complied with to a larger extent than before.</p> / <p>Uppsatsen behandlar ämnet risk och riskhantering av det svenska torskfisket i Östersjön. Syftet är att redogöra för skillnaderna i riskuppfattning hos aktörer inom fiskenäringen sam tvilka konsekvenser skillnaderna har för de politiska besluten. En litteraturstudie har gjorts föratt ge en kunskapsbakgrund inför intervjuerna med fyra fiskeriaktörer. De utvalda aktörerna är SFR (Svenska Fiskares Riksförbund), Fiskeriverket, WWF och en representant förforskarvärlden. Resultaten i studien visar att orsakerna till torskens förbättrade status är två, en god naturlig förökning samt en bättre förvaltning av fiskeresurserna. Riskuppfattningen skiljer sig inte mycket på ytan mellan aktörerna. En djupare analys identifierar dock skillnadersom inte är lika tydliga vid en första anblick. Aktörerna betonar olika delar av den förbättringsom skett i fiskeförvaltningen, troligtvis beroende på vilken bakgrund de har. Fiskeförvaltningen har blivit bättre under 2000-talet men bestånden är ännu inte betryggande goda. Så länge inga drastiska höjningar av fiskekvoterna sker de närmare åren och beståndenfortsätter öka är risken liten för ännu en kollaps för Östersjötorsken. Den viktigaste orsaken till den förbättrade förvaltningen är att fler aktörer är inblandade i beslutsprocessen och att ICES rekommendationer efterföljs i högre grad i de politiska besluten.</p>